A new class of survival regression models with heavy-tailed errors: robustness and diagnostics

Birnbaum-Saunders models have largely been applied in material fatigue studies and reliability analyses to relate the total time until failure with some type of cumulative damage. In many problems related to the medical field, such as chronic cardiac diseases and different types of cancer, a cumulative damage caused by several risk factors might cause some degradation that leads to a fatigue process. In these cases, BS models can be suitable for describing the propagation lifetime. However, since the cumulative damage is assumed to be normally distributed in the BS distribution, the parameter estimates from this model can be sensitive to outlying observations. In order to attenuate this influence, we present in this paper BS models, in which a Student-t distribution is assumed to explain the cumulative damage. In particular, we show that the maximum likelihood estimates of the Student-t log-BS models attribute smaller weights to outlying observations, which produce robust parameter estimates. Also, some inferential results are presented. In addition, based on local influence and deviance component and martingale-type residuals, a diagnostics analysis is derived. Finally, a motivating example from the medical field is analyzed using log-BS regression models. Since the parameter estimates appear to be very sensitive to outlying and influential observations, the Student-t log-BS regression model should attenuate such influences. The model checking methodologies developed in this paper are used to compare the fitted models.

DEMO models based automatic workflow process generation

Nowadays, more than half of the computer development projects fail to meet the final users' expectations. One of the main causes is insufficient knowledge about the organization of the enterprise to be supported by the respective information system. The DEMO methodology (Design and Engineering Methodology for Organizations) has been proved as a well-defined method to specify, through models and diagrams, the essence of any organization at a high level of abstraction. However, this methodology is platform implementation independent, lacking the possibility of saving and propagating possible changes from the organization models to the implemented software, in a runtime environment. The Universal Enterprise Adaptive Object Model (UEAOM) is a conceptual schema being used as a basis for a wiki system, to allow the modeling of any organization, independent of its implementation, as well as the previously mentioned change propagation in a runtime environment. Based on DEMO and UEAOM, this project aims to develop efficient and standardized methods, to enable an automatic conversion of DEMO Ontological Models, based on UEAOM specification into BPMN (Business Process Model and Notation) models of processes, using clear semantics, without ambiguities, in order to facilitate the creation of processes, almost ready for being executed on workflow systems that support BPMN.

Fresnel analysis of wave propagation in nonlinear electrodynamics

We study wave propagation in local nonlinear electrodynamical models. Particular attention is paid to the derivation and the analysis of the Fresnel equation for the wave covectors. For the class of local nonlinear Lagrangian nondispersive models, we demonstrate how the originally quartic Fresnel equation factorizes, yielding the generic birefringence effect. We show that the closure of the effective constitutive (or jump) tensor is necessary and sufficient for the absence of birefringence, i.e., for the existence of a unique light cone structure. As another application of the Fresnel approach, we analyze the light propagation in a moving isotropic nonlinear medium. The corresponding effective constitutive tensor contains nontrivial skewon and axion pieces. For nonmagnetic matter, we find that birefringence is induced by the nonlinearity, and derive the corresponding optical metrics.

Interaction between wave and coastal structure: Validation of two lagrangian numerical models with experimental results marine 2011

Numerical modeling of the interaction among waves and coastal structures is a challenge due to the many nonlinear phenomena involved, such as, wave propagation, wave transformation with water depth, interaction among incident and reflected waves, run-up / run-down and wave overtopping. Numerical models based on Lagrangian formulation, like SPH (Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics), allow simulating complex free surface flows. The validation of these numerical models is essential, but comparing numerical results with experimental data is not an easy task. In the present paper, two SPH numerical models, SPHysics LNEC and SPH UNESP, are validated comparing the numerical results of waves interacting with a vertical breakwater, with data obtained in physical model tests made in one of the LNEC's flume. To achieve this validation, the experimental set-up is determined to be compatible with the Characteristics of the numerical models. Therefore, the flume dimensions are exactly the same for numerical and physical model and incident wave characteristics are identical, which allows determining the accuracy of the numerical models, particularly regarding two complex phenomena: wave-breaking and impact loads on the breakwater. It is shown that partial renormalization, i.e. renormalization applied only for particles near the structure, seems to be a promising compromise and an original method that allows simultaneously propagating waves, without diffusion, and modeling accurately the pressure field near the structure.

Harmonic propagation analysis in electric energy distribution systems

An important alteration of the equivalent loads profile has been observed in the electrical energy distribution systems, for the last years. Such fact is due to the significant increment of the electronic processors of electric energy that, in general, behave as nonlinear loads, generating harmonic distortions in the currents and voltages along the electric network. The effects of these nonlinear loads, even if they are concentrated in specific sections of the network, are present along the branch circuits, affecting the behavior of the entire electric network. For the evaluation of this phenomenon it is necessary the analysis of the harmonic currents flow and the understanding of the causes and effects of the consequent voltage harmonic distortions. The usual tools for calculation the harmonic flow consider one-line equivalent networks, balanced and symmetrical systems. Therefore, they are not tools appropriate for analysis of the operation and the influence/interaction of mitigation elements. In this context, this work proposes the development of a computational tool for the analysis of the three-phase harmonic propagation using Norton modified models and considering the real nature of unbalanced electric systems operation. © 2011 IEEE.

Radio-wave propagation model for UHF band in different climatic conditions with dyadic green’s function

This article proposes a deterministic radio propagation model using dyadic Green's function to predict the value of the electric field. Dyadic is offered as an efficient mathematical tool which has symbolic simplicity and robustness, as well as taking account of the anisotropy of the medium. The proposed model is an important contribution for the UHF band because it considers climatic conditions by changing the constants of the medium. Most models and recommendations that include an approach for climatic conditions, are designed for satellite links, mainly Ku and Ka bands. The results obtained by simulation are compared and validated with data from a Digital Television Station measurement campaigns conducted in the Belém city in Amazon region during two seasons. The proposed model was able to provide satisfactory results by differentiating between the curves for dry and wet soil and these corroborate the measured data, (the RMS errors are between 2-5 dB in the case under study).

A Time-domain Harmonic Power-Flow Analysis in Electrical Energy Distribution Networks, Using Norton Models for Non-linear Loading

The purpose of this paper is to present the application of a three-phase harmonic propagation analysis time-domain tool, using the Norton model to approach the modeling of non-linear loads, making the harmonics currents flow more appropriate to the operation analysis and to the influence of mitigation elements analysis. This software makes it possible to obtain results closer to the real distribution network, considering voltages unbalances, currents imbalances and the application of mitigation elements for harmonic distortions. In this scenario, a real case study with network data and equipments connected to the network will be presented, as well as the modeling of non-linear loads based on real data obtained from some PCCs (Points of Common Coupling) of interests for a distribution company.

Analyzing the Complexity and Reliability of Switch-Frequency-Reconfigurable Antennas Using Graph Models

This paper addresses the functional reliability and the complexity of reconfigurable antennas using graph models. The correlation between complexity and reliability for any given reconfigurable antenna is defined. Two methods are proposed to reduce failures and improve the reliability of reconfigurable antennas. The failures are caused by the reconfiguration technique or by the surrounding environment. These failure reduction methods proposed are tested and examples are given which verify these methods.

Predicting the behaviour of structures under impact loads using geometrically distorted scaled models

When a scaled structure (model or replica) is used to predict the response of a full-size compound (prototype), the model geometric dimensions should relate to the corresponding prototype dimensions by a single scaling factor. However, owing to manufacturing technical restrictions, this condition cannot be accomplished for some of the dimensions in real structures. Accordingly, the distorted geometry will not comply with the overall geometric scaling factor, infringing the Pi theorem requirements for complete dynamic similarity. In the present study, a method which takes geometrical distortions into account is introduced, leading to a model similar to the prototype. As a means to infer the performance of this method, three analytical problems of structures subjected to dynamic loads are analysed. It is shown that the replica developed applying this technique is able to accurately predict the full-size structure behaviour even when the studied models have some of their dimensions severely distorted. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effect of Laser Shock Peening on Fatigue Crack Propagation of Aeronautical Structures

Laser Shock Peening (LSP) is a surface enhancement treatment which induces a significant layer of beneficial compressive residual stresses up to several mm underneath the surface of metal components in order to improve the detrimental effects of crack growth behavior rate in it. The aim of this thesis is to predict the crack growth behavior of thin Aluminum specimens with one or more LSP stripes defining a compressive residual stress area. The LSP treatment has been applied as crack retardation stripes perpendicular to the crack growing direction, with the objective of slowing down the crack when approaching the LSP patterns. Different finite element approaches have been implemented to predict the residual stress field left by the laser treatment, mostly by means of the commercial software Abaqus/Explicit. The Afgrow software has been used to predict the crack growth behavior of the component following the laser peening treatment and to detect the improvement in fatigue life comparing to the specimen baseline. Furthermore, an analytical model has been implemented on the Matlab software to make more accurate predictions on fatigue life of the treated components. An educational internship at the Research and Technologies Germany- Hamburg department of Airbus helped to achieve knowledge and experience to write this thesis. The main tasks of the thesis are the following: -To up to date Literature Survey related to laser shock peening in metallic structures -To validate the FE models developed against experimental measurements at coupon level -To develop design of crack growth slow down in centered and edge cracked tension specimens based on residual stress engineering approach using laser peened patterns transversal to the crack path -To predict crack growth behavior of thin aluminum panels -To validate numerical and analytical results by means of experimental tests.

Comparative study of the different models for the calculation of BLEVEs overpressure effects

The BLEVE, acronym for Boiling Liquid Expanding Vapour Explosion, is one of the most dangerous accidents that can occur in pressure vessels. It can be defined as an explosion resulting from the failure of a vessel containing a pressure liquefied gas stored at a temperature significantly above its boiling point at atmospheric pressure. This phenomenon frequently appears when a vessel is engulfed by a fire: the heat causes the internal pressure to raise and the mechanical proprieties of the wall to decrease, with the consequent rupture of the tank and the instantaneous release of its whole content. After the breakage, the vapour outflows and expands and the liquid phase starts boiling due to the pressure drop. The formation and propagation of a distructive schock wave may occur, together with the ejection of fragments, the generation of a fireball if the stored fluid is flammable and immediately ignited or the atmospheric dispersion of a toxic cloud if the fluid contained inside the vessel is toxic. Despite the presence of many studies on the BLEVE mechanism, the exact causes and conditions of its occurrence are still elusive. In order to better understand this phenomenon, in the present study first of all the concept and definition of BLEVE are investigated. A historical analysis of the major events that have occurred over the past 60 years is described. A research of the principal causes of this event, including the analysis of the substances most frequently involved, is presented too. Afterwards a description of the main effects of BLEVEs is reported, focusing especially on the overpressure. Though the major aim of the present thesis is to contribute, with a comparative analysis, to the validation of the main models present in the literature for the calculation and prediction of the overpressure caused by BLEVEs. In line with this purpose, after a short overview of the available approaches, their ability to reproduce the trend of the overpressure is investigated. The overpressure calculated with the different models is compared with values deriving from events happened in the past and ad-hoc experiments, focusing the attention especially on medium and large scale phenomena. The ability of the models to consider different filling levels of the reservoir and different substances is analyzed too. The results of these calculations are extensively discussed. Finally some conclusive remarks are reported.

GSR deposition along the bullet path in contact shots to composite models

In contact shots, all the materials emerging from the muzzle (combustion gases, soot, powder grains, and metals from the primer) will be driven into the depth of the entrance wound and the following sections of the bullet track. The so-called "pocket" ("powder cavity") under the skin containing soot and gunpowder particles is regarded as a significant indicator of a contact entrance wound since one would expect that the quantity of GSR deposited along the bullet's path rapidly declines towards the exit hole. Nevertheless, experience has shown that soot, powder particles, and carboxyhemoglobin may be found not only in the initial part of the wound channel, but also far away from the entrance and even at the exit. In order to investigate the propagation of GSRs under standardized conditions, contact test shots were fired against composite models of pig skin and 25-cm-long gelatin blocks using 9-mm Luger pistol cartridges with two different primers (Sinoxid® and Sintox®). Subsequently, 1-cm-thick layers of the gelatin blocks were examined as to their primer element contents (lead, barium, and antimony as discharge residues of Sinoxid® as well as zinc and titanium from Sintox®) by means of X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy. As expected, the highest element concentrations were found in the initial parts of the bullet tracks, but also the distal sections contained detectable amounts of the respective primer elements. The same was true for amorphous soot and unburned/partly burned powder particles, which could be demonstrated even at the exit site. With the help of a high-speed motion camera it was shown that for a short time the temporary cavitation extends from the entrance to the exit thus facilitating the unlimited spread of discharge residues along the whole bullet path.

Time-domain modeling of high-frequency electromagnetic wave propagation, overhead wires, and earth

Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished. Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished.

Integration of computational models and experimental characterization to study internal frost damage in cementitious materials

The objective of this doctoral research is to investigate the internal frost damage due to crystallization pore pressure in porous cement-based materials by developing computational and experimental characterization tools. As an essential component of the U.S. infrastructure system, the durability of concrete has significant impact on maintenance costs. In cold climates, freeze-thaw damage is a major issue affecting the durability of concrete. The deleterious effects of the freeze-thaw cycle depend on the microscale characteristics of concrete such as the pore sizes and the pore distribution, as well as the environmental conditions. Recent theories attribute internal frost damage of concrete is caused by crystallization pore pressure in the cold environment. The pore structures have significant impact on freeze-thaw durability of cement/concrete samples. The scanning electron microscope (SEM) and transmission X-ray microscopy (TXM) techniques were applied to characterize freeze-thaw damage within pore structure. In the microscale pore system, the crystallization pressures at sub-cooling temperatures were calculated using interface energy balance with thermodynamic analysis. The multi-phase Extended Finite Element Modeling (XFEM) and bilinear Cohesive Zone Modeling (CZM) were developed to simulate the internal frost damage of heterogeneous cement-based material samples. The fracture simulation with these two techniques were validated by comparing the predicted fracture behavior with the captured damage from compact tension (CT) and single-edge notched beam (SEB) bending tests. The study applied the developed computational tools to simulate the internal frost damage caused by ice crystallization with the two dimensional (2-D) SEM and three dimensional (3-D) reconstructed SEM and TXM digital samples. The pore pressure calculated from thermodynamic analysis was input for model simulation. The 2-D and 3-D bilinear CZM predicted the crack initiation and propagation within cement paste microstructure. The favorably predicted crack paths in concrete/cement samples indicate the developed bilinear CZM techniques have the ability to capture crack nucleation and propagation in cement-based material samples with multiphase and associated interface. By comparing the computational prediction with the actual damaged samples, it also indicates that the ice crystallization pressure is the main mechanism for the internal frost damage in cementitious materials.

Neural network based glucose - insulin metabolism models for children with Type 1 diabetes

In this paper two models for the simulation of glucose-insulin metabolism of children with Type 1 diabetes are presented. The models are based on the combined use of Compartmental Models (CMs) and artificial Neural Networks (NNs). Data from children with Type 1 diabetes, stored in a database, have been used as input to the models. The data are taken from four children with Type 1 diabetes and contain information about glucose levels taken from continuous glucose monitoring system, insulin intake and food intake, along with corresponding time. The influences of taken insulin on plasma insulin concentration, as well as the effect of food intake on glucose input into the blood from the gut, are estimated from the CMs. The outputs of CMs, along with previous glucose measurements, are fed to a NN, which provides short-term prediction of glucose values. For comparative reasons two different NN architectures have been tested: a Feed-Forward NN (FFNN) trained with the back-propagation algorithm with adaptive learning rate and momentum, and a Recurrent NN (RNN), trained with the Real Time Recurrent Learning (RTRL) algorithm. The results indicate that the best prediction performance can be achieved by the use of RNN.