Depth Averaged Models for Fast Landslide Propagation: Mathematical, Rheological and Numerical Aspects

This paper presents an overview of depth averaged modelling of fast catastrophic landslides where coupling of solid skeleton and pore fluid (air and water) is important. The first goal is to show how Biot-Zienkiewicz models can be applied to develop depth integrated, coupled models. The second objective of the paper is to consider a link which can be established between rheological and constitutive models. Perzyna´s viscoplasticity can be considered a general framework within which rheological models such as Bingham and cohesive frictional fluids can be derived. Among the several alternative numerical models, we will focus here on SPH which has not been widely applied by engineers to model landslide propagation. We propose an improvement, based on combining Finite Difference meshes associated to SPH nodes to describe pore pressure evolution inside the landslide mass. We devote a Section to analyze the performance of the models, considering three sets of tests and examples which allows to assess the model performance and limitations: (i) Problems having an analytical solution, (ii) Small scale laboratory tests, and (iii) Real cases for which we have had access to reliable information

Métodos diferenciales e interferométricos para la evaluación de deformaciones de la corteza terrestre mediante técnicas GNSS e InSAR = Differential and interferometric methods for evaluation of crustal deformation using GNSS and InSAR techniques

La actividad volcánica interviene en multitud de facetas de la propia actividad humana, no siempre negativas. Sin embargo, son más los motivos de peligrosidad y riesgo que incitan al estudio de la actividad volcánica. Existen razones de seguridad que inciden en el mantenimiento del seguimiento y monitorización de la actividad volcánica para garantizar la vida y la seguridad de los asentamientos antrópicos en las proximidades de los edificios volcánicos. En esta tesis se define e implementa un sistema de monitorización de movimientos de la corteza en las islas de Tenerife y La Palma, donde el impacto social que representa un aumento o variación de la actividad volcánica en las islas es muy severo. Aparte de la alta densidad demográfica del Archipiélago, esta población aumenta significativamente, en diferentes periodos a lo largo del año, debido a la actividad turística que representa la mayor fuente de ingresos de las islas. La población y los centros turísticos se diseminan predominantemente a lo largo de las costas y también a lo largo de los flancos de los edificios volcánicos. Quizá el mantenimiento de estas estructuras sociales y socio-económicas son los motivos más importantes que justifican una monitorización de la actividad volcánica en las Islas Canarias. Recientemente se ha venido trabajando cada vez más en el intento de predecir la actividad volcánica utilizando los nuevos sistemas de monitorización geodésica, puesto que la actividad volcánica se manifiesta anteriormente por deformación de la corteza terrestre y cambios en la fuerza de la gravedad en la zona donde más tarde se registran eventos volcánicos. Los nuevos dispositivos y sensores que se han desarrollado en los últimos años en materias como la geodesia, la observación de la Tierra desde el espacio y el posicionamiento por satélite, han permitido observar y medir tanto la deformación producida en el terreno como los cambios de la fuerza de la gravedad antes, durante y posteriormente a los eventos volcánicos que se producen. Estos nuevos dispositivos y sensores han cambiado las técnicas o metodologías geodésicas que se venían utilizando hasta la aparición de los mismos, renovando métodos clásicos y desarrollando otros nuevos que ya se están afianzando como metodologías probadas y reconocidas para ser usadas en la monitorización volcánica. Desde finales de la década de los noventa del siglo pasado se han venido desarrollando en las Islas Canarias varios proyectos que han tenido como objetivos principales el desarrollo de nuevas técnicas de observación y monitorización por un lado y el diseño de una metodología de monitorización volcánica adecuada, por otro. Se presenta aquí el estudio y desarrollo de técnicas GNSS para la monitorización de deformaciones corticales y su campo de velocidades para las islas de Tenerife y La Palma. En su implementación, se ha tenido en cuenta el uso de la infraestructura geodésica y de monitorización existente en el archipiélago a fin de optimizar costes, además de complementarla con nuevas estaciones para dar una cobertura total a las dos islas. Los resultados obtenidos en los proyectos, que se describen en esta memoria, han dado nuevas perspectivas en la monitorización geodésica de la actividad volcánica y nuevas zonas de interés que anteriormente no se conocían en el entorno de las Islas Canarias. Se ha tenido especial cuidado en el tratamiento y propagación de los errores durante todo el proceso de observación, medida y proceso de los datos registrados, todo ello en aras de cuantificar el grado de fiabilidad de los resultados obtenidos. También en este sentido, los resultados obtenidos han sido verificados con otros procedentes de sistemas de observación radar de satélite, incorporando además a este estudio las implicaciones que el uso conjunto de tecnologías radar y GNSS tendrán en un futuro en la monitorización de deformaciones de la corteza terrestre. ABSTRACT Volcanic activity occurs in many aspects of human activity, and not always in a negative manner. Nonetheless, research into volcanic activity is more likely to be motivated by its danger and risk. There are security reasons that influence the monitoring of volcanic activity in order to guarantee the life and safety of human settlements near volcanic edifices. This thesis defines and implements a monitoring system of movements in the Earth’s crust in the islands of Tenerife and La Palma, where the social impact of an increase (or variation) of volcanic activity is very severe. Aside from the high demographic density of the archipelago, the population increases significantly in different periods throughout the year due to tourism, which represents a major source of revenue for the islands. The population and the tourist centres are mainly spread along the coasts and also along the flanks of the volcanic edifices. Perhaps the preservation of these social and socio-economic structures is the most important reason that justifies monitoring volcanic activity in the Canary Islands. Recently more and more work has been done with the intention of predicting volcanic activity, using new geodesic monitoring systems, since volcanic activity is evident prior to eruption because of a deformation of the Earth’s crust and changes in the force of gravity in the zone where volcanic events will later be recorded. The new devices and sensors that have been developed in recent years in areas such as geodesy, the observation of the Earth from space, and satellite positioning have allowed us to observe and measure the deformation produced in the Earth as well as the changes in the force of gravity before, during, and after the volcanic events occur. The new devices and sensors have changed the geodetic techniques and methodologies that were used previously. The classic methods have been renovated and other newer ones developed that are now vouched for as proven recognised methodologies to be used for volcanic monitoring. Since the end of the 1990s, in the Canary Islands various projects have been developed whose principal aim has been the development of new observation and monitoring techniques on the one hand, and the design of an appropriate volcanic monitoring methodology on the other. The study and development of GNSS techniques for the monitoring of crustal deformations and their velocity field is presented here. To carry out the study, the use of geodetic infrastructure and existing monitoring in the archipelago have been taken into account in order to optimise costs, besides complementing it with new stations for total coverage on both islands. The results obtained in the projects, which are described below, have produced new perspectives in the geodetic monitoring of volcanic activity and new zones of interest which previously were unknown in the environment of the Canary Islands. Special care has been taken with the treatment and propagation of errors during the entire process of observing, measuring, and processing the recorded data. All of this was done in order to quantify the degree of trustworthiness of the results obtained. Also in this sense, the results obtained have been verified with others from satellite radar observation systems, incorporating as well in this study the implications that the joint use of radar technologies and GNSS will have for the future of monitoring deformations in the Earth’s crust.

Transparent boundary conditions for wave propagation on unbounded domains

The numerical solution of the time dependent wave equation in an unbounded domain generally leads to a truncation of this domain, which requires the introduction of an artificial boundary with associated boundary conditions. Such nonreflecting conditions ensure the equivalence between the solution of the original problem in the unbounded region and the solution inside the artificial boundary. We consider the acoustic wave equation and derive exact transparent boundary conditions that are local in time and can be directly used in explicit methods. These conditions annihilate wave harmonics up to a given order on a spherical artificial boundary, and we show how to combine the derived boundary condition with a finite difference method. The analysis is complemented by a numerical example in two spatial dimensions that illustrates the usefulness and accuracy of transparent boundary conditions.

Belief propagation vs. TAP for decoding corrupted messages

We employ two different methods, based on belief propagation and TAP,for decoding corrupted messages encoded by employing Sourlas's method, where the code word comprises products of K bits selected randomly from the original message. We show that the equations obtained by the two approaches are similar and provide the same solution as the one obtained by the replica approach in some cases K=2. However, we also show that for K>=3 and unbiased messages the iterative solution is sensitive to the initial conditions and is likely to provide erroneous solutions; and that it is generally beneficial to use Nishimori's temperature, especially in the case of biased messages.

Gaussian process quantile regression using expectation propagation

Direct quantile regression involves estimating a given quantile of a response variable as a function of input variables. We present a new framework for direct quantile regression where a Gaussian process model is learned, minimising the expected tilted loss function. The integration required in learning is not analytically tractable so to speed up the learning we employ the Expectation Propagation algorithm. We describe how this work relates to other quantile regression methods and apply the method on both synthetic and real data sets. The method is shown to be competitive with state of the art methods whilst allowing for the leverage of the full Gaussian process probabilistic framework.

Integrated sensitivity analysis, calibration, and uncertainty propagation analysis approaches for supporting hydrological modeling

The successful performance of a hydrological model is usually challenged by the quality of the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty analysis carried out in the modeling exercise and subsequent simulation results. This is especially important under changing climatic conditions where there are more uncertainties associated with climate models and downscaling processes that increase the complexities of the hydrological modeling system. In response to these challenges and to improve the performance of the hydrological models under changing climatic conditions, this research proposed five new methods for supporting hydrological modeling. First, a design of experiment aided sensitivity analysis and parameterization (DOE-SAP) method was proposed to investigate the significant parameters and provide more reliable sensitivity analysis for improving parameterization during hydrological modeling. The better calibration results along with the advanced sensitivity analysis for significant parameters and their interactions were achieved in the case study. Second, a comprehensive uncertainty evaluation scheme was developed to evaluate three uncertainty analysis methods, the sequential uncertainty fitting version 2 (SUFI-2), generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and Parameter solution (ParaSol) methods. The results showed that the SUFI-2 performed better than the other two methods based on calibration and uncertainty analysis results. The proposed evaluation scheme demonstrated that it is capable of selecting the most suitable uncertainty method for case studies. Third, a novel sequential multi-criteria based calibration and uncertainty analysis (SMC-CUA) method was proposed to improve the efficiency of calibration and uncertainty analysis and control the phenomenon of equifinality. The results showed that the SMC-CUA method was able to provide better uncertainty analysis results with high computational efficiency compared to the SUFI-2 and GLUE methods and control parameter uncertainty and the equifinality effect without sacrificing simulation performance. Fourth, an innovative response based statistical evaluation method (RESEM) was proposed for estimating the uncertainty propagated effects and providing long-term prediction for hydrological responses under changing climatic conditions. By using RESEM, the uncertainty propagated from statistical downscaling to hydrological modeling can be evaluated. Fifth, an integrated simulation-based evaluation system for uncertainty propagation analysis (ISES-UPA) was proposed for investigating the effects and contributions of different uncertainty components to the total propagated uncertainty from statistical downscaling. Using ISES-UPA, the uncertainty from statistical downscaling, uncertainty from hydrological modeling, and the total uncertainty from two uncertainty sources can be compared and quantified. The feasibility of all the methods has been tested using hypothetical and real-world case studies. The proposed methods can also be integrated as a hydrological modeling system to better support hydrological studies under changing climatic conditions. The results from the proposed integrated hydrological modeling system can be used as scientific references for decision makers to reduce the potential risk of damages caused by extreme events for long-term water resource management and planning.

Stochastic Modeling of Reversible Biochemical Reaction-Diffusion Systems and High-Resolution Shock-Capturing Methods for Fluid Interfaces

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08

Phenobarbital reduces EEG amplitude and propagation of neonatal seizures but does not alter performance of automated seizure detection

Objective: Phenobarbital increases electroclinical uncoupling and our preliminary observations suggest it may also affect electrographic seizure morphology. This may alter the performance of a novel seizure detection algorithm (SDA) developed by our group. The objectives of this study were to compare the morphology of seizures before and after phenobarbital administration in neonates and to determine the effect of any changes on automated seizure detection rates. Methods: The EEGs of 18 term neonates with seizures both pre- and post-phenobarbital (524 seizures) administration were studied. Ten features of seizures were manually quantified and summary measures for each neonate were statistically compared between pre- and post-phenobarbital seizures. SDA seizure detection rates were also compared. Results: Post-phenobarbital seizures showed significantly lower amplitude (p < 0.001) and involved fewer EEG channels at the peak of seizure (p < 0.05). No other features or SDA detection rates showed a statistical difference. Conclusion: These findings show that phenobarbital reduces both the amplitude and propagation of seizures which may help to explain electroclinical uncoupling of seizures. The seizure detection rate of the algorithm was unaffected by these changes. Significance: The results suggest that users should not need to adjust the SDA sensitivity threshold after phenobarbital administration.

Bacterial and pathological study of caudal fin rot in brood stocks of Salmo trutta caspius from the propagation and breeding center of Shahid Bahonar of Kelardasht region

In order to study caudal fin rot with emphasis on Aeromonas hydrophila and Pseudomonas fluorescens in Salmo trutta caspius from the salmonids propagation and breeding center of Shahid Bahonar of kelardasht region, One hundred and eighty brood stocks having fin damage symptoms were chosen. Two bacterial samples from each fish were cultured on Aeromonas and Pseudomonas specific media. Biochemical tests, API2OE identification system and antibiogram test using six antibiotic disks were performed for diagnosing isolates bacteria and finding suitable antibiotic. Thirty samples from caudal fin of damaged fishes were fixed in 10% formalin and 51.tm microscopic sections were prepared using standard scatological methods and then stained by Haematoxylin-Eosin staining method to observe the pathological changes and also Maccallum-Goodpasture staining method to observe the bacterial colonies. In second stage of the study, bacterial samples were taken from thirty brood stocks using similar method at the first stage of sampling. For isolation and biochemical diagnosis of Aeromonas and Pseudormonas genus, the samples were analyzed by molecular research included PCR amplification (using 16S rDNA genes of the genus pseudomonas and 16S-23S rDNA intergenic spacer of the genus Aeromonas) and restriction analysis by four restriction enzymes for each genus. The results of biochemical tests showed that isolated bacteria were belonged to Aeromonas caviae and Aeromonas hydrophila (subspecies anaerogenes), Pseudomonas fluorescens, Pseudomonas putida and Pseudomonas alcaligenes while the results of API2OE identification system showed that the isolated bacteria belonged to Aeromonas hydrophila, Pseudomonas fluorescens, Pseudomonas putida and Pseudomonas aeruginosa. Restriction analysis of Aeromonas samples with Hin6l, Csp6I, Taql, and Tasl revealed three samples were different from others while restriction analysis of Pseudomonas samples with Alul, Hinfl, Rsal, and Trull showed at least five species or biovars. The results of antibiogram test showed all Aeromonas samples were sensitive to Trimethoprim, Chloramphenicol and Nitrofurazone, mostly to Nalidixic acid and Chloramphenicol, while most of samples were resistant to Erythromycin and Oxytetracycline. Pseudomonas samples were only sensitive to Nitrofurazone and mostly resistant to Oxytetracycline, Nalidixic acid, Erythromycin, Trimethoprim and Chloramphenicol. The results of light microscope study showed hyperplasia and spongiosis of the malpigian cells of epidermis, increasing of melanin pigments underlying epidermis; sever necrosis in both epidermis and dermis and also sloughing the epidermis in some cases. Occurrence of clefts through the epithelium, neovascularization, hyperemia and mild inflammatory response in dermis and separation of the fin rays also were observed. No bacterial colonies were found in the sections.

Sistematic, population genetics, propagation and conservation of Prunus azorica (Rosaceae)

Tese de Doutoramento, Biologia (Ecologia Vegetal), 25 de Junho de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

The interaction between Sertoli cells and luekemia inhibitory factor on the propagation and differentiation of spermatogonial stem cells in vitro

Background: Sertoli cells play a pivotal role in creating microenvironments essential for spermatogonial stem cells (SSCs) self-renewal and commitment to differentiation. Maintenance of SSCs and or induction of in vitro spermiogenesis may provide a therapeutic strategy to treat male infertility. Objective: This study investigated the role of luekemia inhibitory factor (LIF) on the propagation of SSCs and both functions of Sertoli cells on the proliferation and differentiation of these cells. Materials and Methods: SSCs were sorted from the testes of adult male mice by magnetic activated cell sorting and thymus cell antigen 1 antibody. On the other hand, isolated Sertoli cells were enriched using lectin coated plates. SSCs were cultured on Sertoli cells for 7 days in the absence or presence of LIF. The effects of these conditions were evaluated by microscopy and expression of meiotic and post meiotic transcripts by reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction. Results: Our data showed that SSCs co-cultured with Sertoli cells in the presence of LIF formed colonies on top of the Sertoli cells. These colonies had alkaline phosphatesase activity and expressed SSCs specific genes. SSCs were enjoyed limited development after the mere removal of LIF, and exhibiting expression of meiotic and postmeiotic transcript and loss of SSCs specific gene expression (p< 0.05). Conclusion: Our findings represent co-culture of SSCs with Sertoli cells provides conditions that may allow efficient proliferation and differentiation of SSCs for male infertility treatment.

Debonding and crack propagation in cracked steel beams strengthened with CFRP and subjected to cyclic loads.

The reinforcement methods used to restore or increase the bearing capacity of metal structures are based on the application of steel plates to be bolted or welded to the original structure, which can cause problems to the integrity of the original structure. These difficulties can be overcome with the introduction of fiber-reinforced composite materials. FRPs are characterized by high strength to weight ratio, and they are very resistant to corrosion. In this dissertation a cracked steel I-beam reinforced with Carbon Fiber-Reinforced Polymer will be studied by performing a numerical evaluation of the structure with the commercial Finite Element Method software ABAQUS. The crack propagation will be computed using XFEM, while the debonding of the reinforcement layer will be found by considering a cohesive contact interface between the beam and the CFRP plate. The results will show the efficiency of the strengthening method in increasing the load carrying capacity of the cracked beam, and in reducing the crack opening of the initial notch.

Evaluation Of Different Treatment Methods Against Denture Stomatitis: A Randomized Clinical Study.

The aim of this clinical study was to determine the efficacy of Uncaria tomentosa (cat's claw) against denture stomatitis (DS). Fifty patients with DS were randomly assigned into 3 groups to receive 2% miconazole, placebo, or 2% U tomentosa gel. DS level was recorded immediately, after 1 week of treatment, and 1 week after treatment. The clinical effectiveness of each treatment was measured using Newton's criteria. Mycologic samples from palatal mucosa and prosthesis were obtained to determinate colony forming units per milliliter (CFU/mL) and fungal identification at each evaluation period. Candida species were identified with HiCrome Candida and API 20C AUX biochemical test. DS severity decreased in all groups (P < .05). A significant reduction in number of CFU/mL after 1 week (P < .05) was observed for all groups and remained after 14 days (P > .05). C albicans was the most prevalent microorganism before treatment, followed by C tropicalis, C glabrata, and C krusei, regardless of the group and time evaluated. U tomentosa gel had the same effect as 2% miconazole gel. U tomentosa gel is an effective topical adjuvant treatment for denture stomatitis.

Petroleomics By Electrospray Ionization Ft-icr Mass Spectrometry Coupled To Partial Least Squares With Variable Selection Methods: Prediction Of The Total Acid Number Of Crude Oils.

Negative-ion mode electrospray ionization, ESI(-), with Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry (FT-ICR MS) was coupled to a Partial Least Squares (PLS) regression and variable selection methods to estimate the total acid number (TAN) of Brazilian crude oil samples. Generally, ESI(-)-FT-ICR mass spectra present a power of resolution of ca. 500,000 and a mass accuracy less than 1 ppm, producing a data matrix containing over 5700 variables per sample. These variables correspond to heteroatom-containing species detected as deprotonated molecules, [M - H](-) ions, which are identified primarily as naphthenic acids, phenols and carbazole analog species. The TAN values for all samples ranged from 0.06 to 3.61 mg of KOH g(-1). To facilitate the spectral interpretation, three methods of variable selection were studied: variable importance in the projection (VIP), interval partial least squares (iPLS) and elimination of uninformative variables (UVE). The UVE method seems to be more appropriate for selecting important variables, reducing the dimension of the variables to 183 and producing a root mean square error of prediction of 0.32 mg of KOH g(-1). By reducing the size of the data, it was possible to relate the selected variables with their corresponding molecular formulas, thus identifying the main chemical species responsible for the TAN values.

Estimated Disability-adjusted Life Years Averted By Long-term Provision Of Long Acting Contraceptive Methods In A Brazilian Clinic.

What is the contribution of the provision, at no cost for users, of long acting reversible contraceptive methods (LARC; copper intrauterine device [IUD], the levonorgestrel-releasing intrauterine system [LNG-IUS], contraceptive implants and depot-medroxyprogesterone [DMPA] injection) towards the disability-adjusted life years (DALY) averted through a Brazilian university-based clinic established over 30 years ago. Over the last 10 years of evaluation, provision of LARC methods and DMPA by the clinic are estimated to have contributed to DALY averted by between 37 and 60 maternal deaths, 315-424 child mortalities, 634-853 combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. LARC methods are associated with a high contraceptive effectiveness when compared with contraceptive methods which need frequent attention; perhaps because LARC methods are independent of individual or couple compliance. However, in general previous studies have evaluated contraceptive methods during clinical studies over a short period of time, or not more than 10 years. Furthermore, information regarding the estimation of the DALY averted is scarce. We reviewed 50 004 medical charts from women who consulted for the first time looking for a contraceptive method over the period from 2 January 1980 through 31 December 2012. Women who consulted at the Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Campinas, Brazil were new users and users switching contraceptive, including the copper IUD (n = 13 826), the LNG-IUS (n = 1525), implants (n = 277) and DMPA (n = 9387). Estimation of the DALY averted included maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality and unsafe abortions averted. We obtained 29 416 contraceptive segments of use including 25 009 contraceptive segments of use from 20 821 new users or switchers to any LARC method or DMPA with at least 1 year of follow-up. The mean (± SD) age of the women at first consultation ranged from 25.3 ± 5.7 (range 12-47) years in the 1980s, to 31.9 ± 7.4 (range 16-50) years in 2010-2011. The most common contraceptive chosen at the first consultation was copper IUD (48.3, 74.5 and 64.7% in the 1980s, 1990s and 2000s, respectively). For an evaluation over 20 years, the cumulative pregnancy rates (SEM) were 0.4 (0.2), 2.8 (2.1), 4.0 (0.4) and 1.3 (0.4) for the LNG-IUS, the implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively and cumulative continuation rates (SEM) were 15.1 (3.7), 3.9 (1.4), 14.1 (0.6) and 7.3 (1.7) for the LNG-IUS, implants, copper IUD and DMPA, respectively (P < 0.001). Over the last 10 years of evaluation, the estimation of the contribution of the clinic through the provision of LARC methods and DMPA to DALY averted was 37-60 maternal deaths; between 315 and 424 child mortalities; combined maternal morbidity and mortality and child mortality of between 634 and 853, and 1056-1412 unsafe abortions averted. The main limitations are the number of women who never returned to the clinic (overall 14% among the four methods under evaluation); consequently the pregnancy rate could be different. Other limitations include the analysis of two kinds of copper IUD and two kinds of contraceptive implants as the same IUD or implant, and the low number of users of implants. In addition, the DALY calculation relies on a number of estimates, which may vary in different parts of the world. LARC methods and DMPA are highly effective and women who were well-counselled used these methods for a long time. The benefit of averting maternal morbidity and mortality, child mortality, and unsafe abortions is an example to health policy makers to implement more family planning programmes and to offer contraceptive methods, mainly LARC and DMPA, at no cost or at affordable cost for the underprivileged population. This study received partial financial support from the Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP), grant # 2012/12810-4 and from the National Research Council (CNPq), grant #573747/2008-3. B.F.B., M.P.G., and V.M.C. were fellows from the scientific initiation programme from FAPESP. Since the year 2001, all the TCu380A IUD were donated by Injeflex, São Paulo, Brazil, and from the year 2006 all the LNG-IUS were donated by the International Contraceptive Access Foundation (ICA), Turku, Finland. Both donations are as unrestricted grants. The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest associated with this study.