Docagem ou afretamento de UMS: a escolha ótima para a extensão da vida útil das plataformas de petróleo de campos marítimos maduros sob o enfoque das opções reais

O objetivo deste trabalho é propor a utilização do arcabouço teórico das opções reais e a posterior aplicação do modelo binomial na avaliação de projetos relacionados à exploração e produção de petróleo, tendo em vista a flexibilidade gerencial, os riscos e as incertezas técnicas e de mercado que norteiam o setor petrolífero upstream. Ademais, a aplicação do modelo proposto capta o papel crucial da volatilidade do preço do petróleo na avaliação da decisão de investimento e revela a existência dos custos irrecuperáveis extremos decorrentes do ativo real, neste caso, a unidade marítima de petróleo. Assim, com o intuito de prolongar o ciclo de produção de unidade marítima de petróleo com características preestabelecidas, propõe-se a avaliação econômica de duas alternativas tecnológicas para a extensão de vida útil da plataforma marítima objeto de estudo, sendo estas alternativas tratadas como opções de expansão. As alternativas propostas são duas: o afretamento da UMS (Unidade de Manutenção e Segurança) acoplada à plataforma e a docagem da plataforma a partir da desmobilização, isto é, o descomissionamento, e envio da plataforma ao estaleiro. Na aplicação da primeira opção, a UMS se configura em uma embarcação equipada com toda a estrutura necessária para a realização de serviço de manutenção e revitalização, sem que ocorra interrupção da produção de petróleo. Por outro lado, a opção de descomissionamento é desprovida de receita até o retorno da plataforma do estaleiro. No que tange à metodologia do presente trabalho, o modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro é aplicado considerando a receita proveniente da produção de petróleo de uma plataforma marítima com sistema de produção flutuante com 14 poços, sendo 10 produtores e 4 injetores e sustentada por 8 linhas de ancoragem. Também é definida a volatilidade do projeto como sendo a volatilidade do preço do petróleo. Por fim, as opções de expansão podem ser exercidas a qualquer momento antes da data de expiração das opções, data esta coincidente para ambas as opções e referente ao término de contrato de afretamento da UMS, que corresponde ao período de cinco anos. Neste período de cinco anos, as duas alternativas são exercidas a partir do primeiro ano, com receitas e custos distintos em virtude das especificidades decorrentes das alternativas tecnológicas propostas. A partir da aplicação do modelo binomial com probabilidades de risco neutro sob o enfoque das opções reais, as duas alternativas tecnológicas são tratadas como opções americanas na avaliação econômica da revitalização e manutenção da plataforma marítima. Também realiza-se a análise tradicional do VPL para as duas alternativas. As duas análises apontam para a escolha da UMS como alternativa ótima de expansão da vida útil da plataforma. Ademais, a análise sob o enfoque das opções reais capta um valor adicional em ambas as alternativas tecnológicas, fruto das características inerentes à indústria petrolífera. Quanto à estrutura do trabalho em questão se divide em cinco capítulos: introdução, referencial teórico, metodologia, apresentação dos resultados e as considerações finais.

Product development process: Using real options for assessments and to support the decision-making at decision gates

Enterprises need continuous product development activities to remain competitive in the marketplace. Their product development process (PDP) must manage stakeholders' needs - technical, financial, legal, and environmental aspects, customer requirements, Corporate strategy, etc. -, being a multidisciplinary and strategic issue. An approach to use real option to support the decision-making process at PDP phases in taken. The real option valuation method is often presented as an alternative to the conventional net present value (NPV) approach. It is based on the same principals of financial options: the right to buy or sell financial values (mostly stocks) at a predetermined price, with no obligation to do so. In PDP, a multi-period approach that takes into account the flexibility of, for instance, being able to postpone prototyping and design decisions, waiting for more information about technologies, customer acceptance, funding, etc. In the present article, the state of the art of real options theory is prospected and a model to use the real options in PDP is proposed, so that financial aspects can be properly considered at each project phase of the product development. Conclusion is that such model can provide more robustness to the decisions processes within PDP.

Os fundamentos keynesianos da decisão de investir

Neste artigo abordam-se os fundamentos da decisão do investimento em Keynes. O objetivo e mostrar o contexto da decisão do investimento diante do futuro incerto. Explorando os aspectos de uma economia monetária, tempo, incerteza e moeda, o artigo recupera o caráter expectacional e instável da decisão de investir.

Centralization versus Delegation in an Experimental Capital Budgeting Setting

In an experiment, we model two stylized facts about capital budgeting practice, budgetary slack creation and delegation of decision-making authority. In our setting, under centralization, headquarters announces a budget, the division manager gives a cost report, and headquarters decides on the project. Under delegation, headquarters allocates a budget to the manager, and the manager is authorized to make the investment decision. We argue that the ability of headquarters to commit to a budget moderates the effect of delegation, and we find evidence in favor of our argument as there is an interaction effect of delegation and commitment to budgets. The effects of delegation are particularly strong when budgets are non-binding as delegation serves as a substitute for commitment in this case. This leads to smaller expenditures and to a higher headquarters’ payoff under delegation than under centralization. In contrast, when headquarters can commit to the budget, the descriptive data are consistent with our conjectures about the effects of honesty preferences, but the effects are too small to be significant.

IBPOWER Project, Intermediate band materials and solar cells for photovoltaics with high efficiency and reduced cost

IBPOWER is a Project awarded under the 7th European Framework Programme that aims to advance research on intermediate band solar cells (IBSCs). These are solar cells conceived to absorb below bandgap energy photons by means of an electronic energy band that is located within the semiconductor bandgap, whilst producing photocurrent with output voltage still limited by the total semiconductor bandgap. IBPOWER employs two basic strategies for implementing the IBSC concept. The first is based on the use of quantum dots, the IB arising from the confined energy levels of the electrons in the dots. Quantum dots have led to devices that demonstrate the physical operation principles of the IB concept and have allowed identification of the problems to be solved to achieve actual high efficiencies. The second approach is based on the creation of bulk intermediate band materials by the insertion of an appropriate impurity into a bulk semiconductor. Under this approach it is expected that, when inserted at high densities, these impurities will find it difficult to capture electrons by producing a breathing mode and will cease behaving as non-radiative recombination centres. Towards this end the following systems are being investigated: a) Mn: In1-xGax N; b) transition metals in GaAs and c) thin films.

COACHING E MENTORING COMO PRÁTICAS DE COMPARTILHAMENTO DO CONHECIMENTO: ESTUDOS DE CASOS EM EMPRESAS PÚBLICAS PAULISTAS

A pesquisa teve como objetivo geral analisar as principais razões pelas quais as empresas públicas paulistas utilizam coaching e mentoring como práticas de compartilhamento de conhecimento. No ano de 2009, foi instituído pelo governador do Estado de São Paulo, o decreto nº 53.963 que instituiu a Política de Gestão do Conhecimento e Inovação para as empresas públicas. Kuniyoshi e Santos (2007) realizaram uma pesquisa, na qual identificaram práticas e iniciativas de gestão do conhecimento adotadas por algumas empresas, dentre elas, coaching e mentoring. As práticas são processos que necessitam de investimento não somente financeiro, mas de tempo e pessoas adequadas, por serem processos mais complexos, instigam a investigação de ações no contexto organizacional de empresas públicas. Este estudo busca contribuir para o desenvolvimento de estudos na área pública. O método utilizado neste estudo de abordagem qualitativa é do tipo exploratória. O objeto desta pesquisa foram as empresas públicas paulistas, que, atualmente, somam 21. Foi realizado estudo de caso, com entrevista e análise documental em duas destas empresas, A Sabesp, empresa do segmento de saneamento de água e esgoto, teve como objetivo analisar a prática de coaching e, o Instituto de Pesquisa Tecnológicas (IPT), referência nacional em metrologia, teve como objetivo analisar a prática de mentoring. Uma vez que não existem práticas exclusivas à Gestão do Conhecimento, e o sucesso de uma prática está relacionado ao contexto na qual está inserida. No caso da Sabesp, a prática de coaching é utilizada como uma das atividades dentro de dois programas, visando desenvolver o capital humano como força competitiva. O IPT teve como objetivo da aplicação do programa de mentoring, especificamente, o compartilhar conhecimento tácito. Foi constatado que as práticas de coaching e mentoring podem ser utilizadas como recurso capaz de tornar a empresa singular perante as demais, mesmo empresas públicas não tendo foco em competitividade, mas utilizam o conhecimento de forma estratégica para melhorar a qualidade de atendimento à sociedade.

COACHING E MENTORING COMO PRÁTICAS DE COMPARTILHAMENTO DO CONHECIMENTO: ESTUDOS DE CASOS EM EMPRESAS PÚBLICAS PAULISTAS

A pesquisa teve como objetivo geral analisar as principais razões pelas quais as empresas públicas paulistas utilizam coaching e mentoring como práticas de compartilhamento de conhecimento. No ano de 2009, foi instituído pelo governador do Estado de São Paulo, o decreto nº 53.963 que instituiu a Política de Gestão do Conhecimento e Inovação para as empresas públicas. Kuniyoshi e Santos (2007) realizaram uma pesquisa, na qual identificaram práticas e iniciativas de gestão do conhecimento adotadas por algumas empresas, dentre elas, coaching e mentoring. As práticas são processos que necessitam de investimento não somente financeiro, mas de tempo e pessoas adequadas, por serem processos mais complexos, instigam a investigação de ações no contexto organizacional de empresas públicas. Este estudo busca contribuir para o desenvolvimento de estudos na área pública. O método utilizado neste estudo de abordagem qualitativa é do tipo exploratória. O objeto desta pesquisa foram as empresas públicas paulistas, que, atualmente, somam 21. Foi realizado estudo de caso, com entrevista e análise documental em duas destas empresas, A Sabesp, empresa do segmento de saneamento de água e esgoto, teve como objetivo analisar a prática de coaching e, o Instituto de Pesquisa Tecnológicas (IPT), referência nacional em metrologia, teve como objetivo analisar a prática de mentoring. Uma vez que não existem práticas exclusivas à Gestão do Conhecimento, e o sucesso de uma prática está relacionado ao contexto na qual está inserida. No caso da Sabesp, a prática de coaching é utilizada como uma das atividades dentro de dois programas, visando desenvolver o capital humano como força competitiva. O IPT teve como objetivo da aplicação do programa de mentoring, especificamente, o compartilhar conhecimento tácito. Foi constatado que as práticas de coaching e mentoring podem ser utilizadas como recurso capaz de tornar a empresa singular perante as demais, mesmo empresas públicas não tendo foco em competitividade, mas utilizam o conhecimento de forma estratégica para melhorar a qualidade de atendimento à sociedade.

Study of management decision making by ward sisters in a hospital and the effects on decision making after the implementation of a decision support sytem

This thesis considers management decision making at the ward level in hospitals especially by ward sisters, and the effectiveness of the intervention of a decision support system. Nursing practice theories were related to organisation and management theories in order to conceptualise a decision making framework for nurse manpower planning and deployment at the ward level. Decision and systems theories were explored to understand the concepts of decision making and the realities of power in an organisation. In essence, the hypothesis was concerned with changes in patterns of decision making that could occur with the intervention of a decision support system and that the degree of change would be governed by a set of `difficulty' factors within wards in a hospital. During the course of the study, a classification of ward management decision making was created, together with the development and validation of measuring instruments to test the research hypothesis. The decision support system used was rigorously evaluated to test whether benefits did accrue from its implementation. Quantitative results from sample wards together with qualitative information collected, were used to test this hypothesis and the outcomes postulated were supported by these findings. The main conclusion from this research is that a more rational approach to management decision making is feasible, using information from a decision support system. However, wards and ward sisters that need the most assistance, where the `difficulty' factors in the organisation are highest, benefit the least from this type of system. Organisational reviews are needed on these identified wards, involving managers and doctors, to reduce the levels of un-coordinated activities and disruption.

The production of a framework of competences for pharmacy practice in the European Union:the PHAR-QA project

Background and objectives: The goal of the PHAR-QA (Qualityassurance in European pharmacy education and training) project isthe production of a European framework of competences for pharmacypractice. This PHAR-QA framework (www.phar-qa.eu) will beEuropean and consultative i.e. it will be used for harmonization—butwill not to replace existing national QA systems.Methods: Using the proposals for competences produced by the previousPHARMINE(Pharmacy education in Europe; www.pharmine.eu) project, together with those of other sources, the authors produced a listof 68 personal and patient care competencies. Using internet surveytools the stakeholders—European pharmacy community (universitydepartment staff and students, community, hospital and industrialpharmacists, as well as pharmacists working in clinical biology andother branches, together with representatives of chambers and associations)—were invited to rank the proposals and add comments.Results and conclusions: Pharmacology and pharmacotherapy togetherwith competences such as ‘‘supply of appropriate medicinestaking into account dose, correct formulation, concentration, administrationroute and timing’’ ranked high. Other topics such as ‘‘currentknowledge of design, synthesis, isolation, characterisation and biologicalevaluation of active substances’’ ranked lower.Implications for practice: In the short term, it is anticipated that thissurvey will stimulate a productive discussion on pharmacy educationand practice by the various stakeholders. In the long term, thisframework could serve as a European model framework of competencesfor pharmacy practice.Acknowledgements: With the support of the Lifelong Learningprogramme of the European Union: 527194-LLP-1-2012-1-BEERASMUS-EMCR. This publication reflects the views only of theauthors; the Commission cannot be held responsible for any usewhich may be made of the information contained therein.

Foreign direct investment motives and location decision factors under economic recession: Three cases of Finnish FDI in Portugal

The purpose of this thesis was to study how uncertainty in economic conditions of the FDI host country affects location decision of an investment, and what kinds of motives are behind the investment decision to a country in economic recession, in this case Portugal. The country has attracted foreign direct investment steadily, but it is evident that most multinational firms and investors tend to be more interested in emerging economies in general. The aim was to find out also which host country specific advantages are important in this kind of cross-border investment and which factors are important for an FDI to succeed under economic uncertainty at the host country. The study was done by analyzing three Finnish case companies: a private equity and real estate investment firm Pontos Group, A wave energy technology research and development company AW Energy and NSN, Nokia Solutions and Networks, a global telecommunications company. The research was done empirically, by interviewing experts on the subject, mainly persons representing these companies. In addition relevant articles, journals and content from case companies’ web-pages is used for the desk research regarding the topic. The results of this thesis showed that the FDIs with strategic asset-seeking investments seem most profitable FDI types under uncertain economic conditions. This kind of investments aim to strengthen the company’s long-term strategy, including the time after recession. Firm-specific ownership advantages that bring competitive advantage proved out to be important under these circumstances, as well as first-mover advantages and externally created assets such as government promotional policies regarding FDI incentives. Also the location was considered suitable for resource- or efficiency seeking motives, based on the lowered price level at the host country. Problems were related mainly to financing, but as foreign companies receive financing usually from their home countries, the economic recession of the host country does not have significant effect for FDI decision, according to this study

Essays on Uncertainty, Imperfect Information, and Investment Dynamics

Understanding how imperfect information affects firms' investment decision helps answer important questions in economics, such as how we may better measure economic uncertainty; how firms' forecasts would affect their decision-making when their beliefs are not backed by economic fundamentals; and how important are the business cycle impacts of changes in firms' productivity uncertainty in an environment of incomplete information. This dissertation provides a synthetic answer to all these questions, both empirically and theoretically. The first chapter, provides empirical evidence to demonstrate that survey-based forecast dispersion identifies a distinctive type of second moment shocks different from the canonical volatility shocks to productivity, i.e. uncertainty shocks. Such forecast disagreement disturbances can affect the distribution of firm-level beliefs regardless of whether or not belief changes are backed by changes in economic fundamentals. At the aggregate level, innovations that increase the dispersion of firms' forecasts lead to persistent declines in aggregate investment and output, which are followed by a slow recovery. On the contrary, the larger dispersion of future firm-specific productivity innovations, the standard way to measure economic uncertainty, delivers the ``wait and see" effect, such that aggregate investment experiences a sharp decline, followed by a quick rebound, and then overshoots. At the firm level, data uncovers that more productive firms increase investments given rises in productivity dispersion for the future, whereas investments drop when firms disagree more about the well-being of their future business conditions. These findings challenge the view that the dispersion of the firms' heterogeneous beliefs captures the concept of economic uncertainty, defined by a model of uncertainty shocks. The second chapter presents a general equilibrium model of heterogeneous firms subject to the real productivity uncertainty shocks and informational disagreement shocks. As firms cannot perfectly disentangle aggregate from idiosyncratic productivity because of imperfect information, information quality thus drives the wedge of difference between the unobserved productivity fundamentals, and the firms' beliefs about how productive they are. Distribution of the firms' beliefs is no longer perfectly aligned with the distribution of firm-level productivity across firms. This model not only explains why, at the macro and micro level, disagreement shocks are different from uncertainty shocks, as documented in Chapter 1, but helps reconcile a key challenge faced by the standard framework to study economic uncertainty: a trade-off between sizable business cycle effects due to changes in uncertainty, and the right amount of pro-cyclicality of firm-level investment rate dispersion, as measured by its correlation with the output cycles.

Experimental and diagnostic protocol for the physical component of the CMIP6 Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP)

The Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (OMIP) aims to provide a framework for evaluating, understanding, and improving the ocean and sea-ice components of global climate and earth system models contributing to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). OMIP addresses these aims in two complementary manners: (A) by providing an experimental protocol for global ocean/sea-ice models run with a prescribed atmospheric forcing, (B) by providing a protocol for ocean diagnostics to be saved as part of CMIP6. We focus here on the physical component of OMIP, with a companion paper (Orr et al., 2016) offering details for the inert chemistry and interactive biogeochemistry. The physical portion of the OMIP experimental protocol follows that of the interannual Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (CORE-II). Since 2009, CORE-I (Normal Year Forcing) and CORE-II have become the standard method to evaluate global ocean/sea-ice simulations and to examine mechanisms for forced ocean climate variability. The OMIP diagnostic protocol is relevant for any ocean model component of CMIP6, including the DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima experiments), historical simulations, FAFMIP (Flux Anomaly Forced MIP), C4MIP (Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate MIP), DAMIP (Detection and Attribution MIP), DCPP (Decadal Climate Prediction Project), ScenarioMIP (Scenario MIP), as well as the ocean-sea ice OMIP simulations. The bulk of this paper offers scientific rationale for saving these diagnostics.

Real options as an alternative methodology to assess investment projects

This paper aims to broaden the applicability of the assessment methodology of investment projects through real options as a key element for investment decision making -- Traditional project valuation methodologies are described and their gaps, which special characteristic is uncertainty, are presented -- A parallel between financial and real options that could be used for valuation is made, using the binomial tree method -- Finally, a case study in the construction sector shows a project valuation using expand and waiting options

Irish state infrastructural investment: an analysis of past patterns, and an outline of a future integrated systems of systems evaluation methodology

The literature clearly links the quality and capacity of a country’s infrastructure to its economic growth and competitiveness. This thesis analyses the historic national and spatial distribution of investment by the Irish state in its physical networks (water, wastewater and roads) across the 34 local authorities and examines how Ireland is perceived internationally relative to its economic counterparts. An appraisal of the current status and shortcomings of Ireland’s infrastructure is undertaken using key stakeholders from foreign direct investment companies and national policymakers to identify Ireland's infrastructural gaps, along with current challenges in how the country is delivering infrastructure. The output of these interviews identified many issues with how infrastructure decision-making is currently undertaken. This led to an evaluation of how other countries are informing decision-making, and thus this thesis presents a framework of how and why Ireland should embrace a Systems of Systems (SoS) methodology approach to infrastructure decision-making going forward. In undertaking this study a number of other infrastructure challenges were identified: significant political interference in infrastructure decision-making and delivery the need for a national agency to remove the existing ‘silo’ type of mentality to infrastructure delivery how tax incentives can interfere with the market; and their significance. The two key infrastructure gaps identified during the interview process were: the need for government intervention in the rollout of sufficient communication capacity and at a competitive cost outside of Dublin; and the urgent need to address water quality and capacity with approximately 25% of the population currently being served by water of unacceptable quality. Despite considerable investment in its national infrastructure, Ireland’s infrastructure performance continues to trail behind its economic partners in the Eurozone and OECD. Ireland is projected to have the highest growth rate in the euro zone region in 2015 and 2016, albeit that it required a bailout in 2010, and, at the time of writing, is beginning to invest in its infrastructure networks again. This thesis proposes the development and implementation of a SoS approach for infrastructure decision-making which would be based on: existing spatial and capacity data of each of the constituent infrastructure networks; and scenario computation and analysis of alternative drivers eg. Demographic change, economic variability and demand/capacity constraints. The output from such an analysis would provide valuable evidence upon which policy makers and decision makers alike could rely, which has been lacking in historic investment decisions.

La confianza en las decisiones de presupuesto de capital: la TIR del comportamiento

En el presente artículo se desarrolla una investigación teórica que permite establecer un modelo matemático para cuantificar la influencia de la confianza de los gerentes en el proceso de presupuesto de capital, en particular sobre la Tasa Interna de Retorno. El Modelo permite concluir que el exceso de confianza es un factor que tiende a elevar esta tasa que esperan recibir los inversionistas tras invertir en determinados proyectos, generando así, en ciertas ocasiones, una toma de decisiones al interior de las empresas basada en cifras sesgadas, comprometiendo así los recursos de la misma.