Pro-adrenomedullin as prognostic biomarker in the sepsis.

Measurement of biomarkers is a potential approach to early assessment and prediction of mortality in septic patients. The purpose of this study was to ascertain the prognostic value of pro-adrenomedullin (pADM), measured in all patients admitted to the ICU of our hospital with a diagnosis of severe sepsis or septic shock during 1 year.

Prognostic impact of MGMT promoter methylation and MGMT and CD133 expression in colorectal adenocarcinoma.

BACKGROUND New biomarkers are needed for the prognosis of advanced colorectal cancer, which remains incurable by conventional treatments. O6-methylguanine DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) methylation and protein expression have been related to colorectal cancer treatment failure and tumor progression. Moreover, the presence in these tumors of cancer stem cells, which are characterized by CD133 expression, has been associated with chemoresistance, radioresistance, metastasis, and local recurrence. The objective of this study was to determine the prognostic value of CD133 and MGMT and their possible interaction in colorectal cancer patients. METHODS MGMT and CD133 expression was analyzed by immunohistochemistry in 123 paraffin-embedded colorectal adenocarcinoma samples, obtaining the percentage staining and intensity. MGMT promoter methylation status was obtained by using bisulfite modification and methylation-specific PCR (MSP). These values were correlated with clinical data, including overall survival (OS), disease-free survival (DFS), tumor stage, and differentiation grade. RESULTS Low MGMT expression intensity was significantly correlated with shorter OS and was a prognostic factor independently of treatment and histopathological variables. High percentage of CD133 expression was significantly correlated with shorter DFS but was not an independent factor. Patients with low-intensity MGMT expression and ≥50% CD133 expression had the poorest DFS and OS outcomes. CONCLUSIONS Our results support the hypothesis that MGMT expression may be an OS biomarker as useful as tumor stage or differentiation grade and that CD133 expression may be a predictive biomarker of DFS. Thus, MGMT and CD133 may both be useful for determining the prognosis of colorectal cancer patients and to identify those requiring more aggressive adjuvant therapies. Future studies will be necessary to determine its clinical utility.

Proadrenomedullin: An effective prognostic biomarker in septic patients

Background: Measurement of biomarkers is a potential approach to early prediction of mortality in septic patients. The purpose of this study was to asses the prognostic value of proadrenomedullin (pADM) in adult patients with sepsis with a single measurement in the first 24 hours after the onset of severe sepsis or septic shock. Conclusions: The protein pADM is an important prognostic biomarker of survival when measured on admission of septic patients to the ICU.

The expression level of BAALC-associated microRNA miR-3151 is an independent prognostic factor in younger patients with cytogenetic intermediate-risk acute myeloid leukemia.

Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disease whose prognosis is mainly related to the biological risk conferred by cytogenetics and molecular profiling. In elderly patients (60 years) with normal karyotype AML miR-3151 have been identified as a prognostic factor. However, miR-3151 prognostic value has not been examined in younger AML patients. In the present work, we have studied miR-3151 alone and in combination with BAALC, its host gene, in a cohort of 181 younger intermediate-risk AML (IR-AML) patients. Patients with higher expression of miR-3151 had shorter overall survival (P=0.0025), shorter leukemia-free survival (P=0.026) and higher cumulative incidence of relapse (P=0.082). Moreover, in the multivariate analysis miR-3151 emerged as independent prognostic marker in both the overall series and within the unfavorable molecular prognostic category. Interestingly, the combined determination of both miR-3151 and BAALC improved this prognostic stratification, with patients with low levels of both parameters showing a better outcome compared with those patients harboring increased levels of one or both markers (P=0.003). In addition, we studied the microRNA expression profile associated with miR-3151 identifying a six-microRNA signature. In conclusion, the analysis of miR-3151 and BAALC expression may well contribute to an improved prognostic stratification of younger patients with IR-AML.

Integrated Analysis of Molecular and Clinical Prognostic Factors in Stage II/III Colon Cancer.

Background The prognostic potential of individual clinical and molecular parameters in stage II/III colon cancer has been investigated, but a thorough multivariable assessment of their relative impact is missing. Methods Tumors from patients (N = 1404) in the PETACC3 adjuvant chemotherapy trial were examined for BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite instability (MSI), chromosome 18q loss of heterozygosity (18qLOH), and SMAD4 expression. Their importance in predicting relapse-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analyses, Cox regression models, and recursive partitioning trees. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results MSI-high status and SMAD4 focal loss of expression were identified as independent prognostic factors with better RFS (hazard ratio [HR] of recurrence = 0.54, 95% CI = 0.37 to 0.81, P = .003) and OS (HR of death = 0.43, 95% CI = 0.27 to 0.70, P = .001) for MSI-high status and worse RFS (HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.19 to 1.81, P < .001) and OS (HR = 1.58, 95% CI = 1.23 to 2.01, P < .001) for SMAD4 loss. 18qLOH did not have any prognostic value in RFS or OS. Recursive partitioning identified refinements of TNM into new clinically interesting prognostic subgroups. Notably, T3N1 tumors with MSI-high status and retained SMAD4 expression had outcomes similar to stage II disease. Conclusions Concomitant assessment of molecular and clinical markers in multivariable analysis is essential to confirm or refute their independent prognostic value. Including molecular markers with independent prognostic value might allow more accurate prediction of prognosis than TNM staging alone.

Validation and clinical utility of a 70-gene prognostic signature for women with node-negative breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: A 70-gene signature was previously shown to have prognostic value in patients with node-negative breast cancer. Our goal was to validate the signature in an independent group of patients. METHODS: Patients (n = 307, with 137 events after a median follow-up of 13.6 years) from five European centers were divided into high- and low-risk groups based on the gene signature classification and on clinical risk classifications. Patients were assigned to the gene signature low-risk group if their 5-year distant metastasis-free survival probability as estimated by the gene signature was greater than 90%. Patients were assigned to the clinicopathologic low-risk group if their 10-year survival probability, as estimated by Adjuvant! software, was greater than 88% (for estrogen receptor [ER]-positive patients) or 92% (for ER-negative patients). Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated to compare time to distant metastases, disease-free survival, and overall survival in high- versus low-risk groups. RESULTS: The 70-gene signature outperformed the clinicopathologic risk assessment in predicting all endpoints. For time to distant metastases, the gene signature yielded HR = 2.32 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.35 to 4.00) without adjustment for clinical risk and hazard ratios ranging from 2.13 to 2.15 after adjustment for various estimates of clinical risk; clinicopathologic risk using Adjuvant! software yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.68 (95% CI = 0.92 to 3.07). For overall survival, the gene signature yielded an unadjusted HR = 2.79 (95% CI = 1.60 to 4.87) and adjusted hazard ratios ranging from 2.63 to 2.89; clinicopathologic risk yielded an unadjusted HR = 1.67 (95% CI = 0.93 to 2.98). For patients in the gene signature high-risk group, 10-year overall survival was 0.69 for patients in both the low- and high-clinical risk groups; for patients in the gene signature low-risk group, the 10-year survival rates were 0.88 and 0.89, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The 70-gene signature adds independent prognostic information to clinicopathologic risk assessment for patients with early breast cancer.

Prognostic role of KRAS and BRAF in stage II and III resected colon cancer: results of the translational study on the PETACC-3, EORTC 40993, SAKK 60-00 trial.

PURPOSE: Mutations within the KRAS proto-oncogene have predictive value but are of uncertain prognostic value in the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer. We took advantage of PETACC-3, an adjuvant trial with 3,278 patients with stage II to III colon cancer, to evaluate the prognostic value of KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation status in this setting. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissue blocks (n = 1,564) were prospectively collected and DNA was extracted from tissue sections from 1,404 cases. Planned analysis of KRAS exon 2 and BRAF exon 15 mutations was performed by allele-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction. Survival analyses were based on univariate and multivariate proportional hazard regression models. RESULTS: KRAS and BRAF tumor mutation rates were 37.0% and 7.9%, respectively, and were not significantly different according to tumor stage. In a multivariate analysis containing stage, tumor site, nodal status, sex, age, grade, and microsatellite instability (MSI) status, KRAS mutation was associated with grade (P = .0016), while BRAF mutation was significantly associated with female sex (P = .017), and highly significantly associated with right-sided tumors, older age, high grade, and MSI-high tumors (all P < 10(-4)). In univariate and multivariate analysis, KRAS mutations did not have a major prognostic value regarding relapse-free survival (RFS) or overall survival (OS). BRAF mutation was not prognostic for RFS, but was for OS, particularly in patients with MSI-low (MSI-L) and stable (MSI-S) tumors (hazard ratio, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.4 to 3.4; P = .0003). CONCLUSION: In stage II-III colon cancer, the KRAS mutation status does not have major prognostic value. BRAF is prognostic for OS in MS-L/S tumors.

Clinical Prognostic Factors Predicting Outcomes Of Patients With Recurrent Gbm And Nomograms

BACKGROUND: Prognostic models and nomograms were recently developed to predict survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme (GBM).1 To improve predictions, models should be updated with the most recent patient and disease information. Nomograms predicting patient outcome at the time of disease progression are required. METHODS: Baseline information from 299 patients with recurrent GBM recruited in 8 phase I or II trials of the EORTC Brain Tumor Group was used to evaluate clinical parameters as prognosticators of patient outcome. Univariate (log rank) and multivariate (Cox models) analyses were made to assess the ability of patients' characteristics (age, sex, performance status [WHO PS], and MRC neurological deficit scale), disease history (prior treatments, time since last treatment or initial diagnosis, and administration of steroids or antiepileptics) and disease characteristics (tumor size and number of lesions) to predict progression free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Bootstrap technique was used for models internal validation. Nomograms were computed to provide individual patients predictions. RESULTS: Poor PS and more than 1 lesion had a significant prognostic impact for both PFS and OS. Antiepileptic drug use was significantly associated with worse PFS. Larger tumors (split by the median of the largest tumor diameter >42.5 mm) and steroid use had shorter OS. Age, sex, neurologic deficit, prior therapies, and time since last therapy or initial diagnosis did not show independent prognostic value for PFS or OS. CONCLUSIONS: This analysis confirms that PS but not age is a major prognostic factor for PFS and OS. Multiple or large tumors and the need to administer steroids significantly increase the risk of progression and death. Nomograms at the recurrence could be used to obtain accurate predictions for the design of new targeted therapy trials or retrospective analyses. (1. T. Gorlia et al., Nomograms for predicting survival of patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Lancet Oncol 9 (1): 29-38, 2008.)

Prognostic importance of hyponatremia in patients with acute pulmonary embolism.

Rationale: Although associated with adverse outcomes in other cardiopulmonary conditions, the prognostic value of hyponatremia, a marker of neurohormonal activation, in patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) is unknown. Objectives: To examine the associations between hyponatremia and mortality and hospital readmission rates for patients hospitalized with PE. METHODS: We evaluated 13,728 patient discharges with a primary diagnosis of PE from 185 hospitals in Pennsylvania (January 2000 to November 2002). We used random-intercept logistic regression to assess the independent association between serum sodium levels at the time of presentation and mortality and hospital readmission within 30 days, adjusting for patient (race, insurance, severity of illness, use of thrombolytic therapy) and hospital factors (region, size, teaching status). Measurements and Main Results: Hyponatremia (sodium ?135 mmol/L) was present in 2,907 patients (21.1%). Patients with a sodium level greater than 135, 130-135, and less than 130 mmol/L had a cumulative 30-day mortality of 8.0, 13.6, and 28.5% (P < 0.001), and a readmission rate of 11.8, 15.6, and 19.3% (P < 0.001), respectively. Compared with patients with a sodium greater than 135 mmol/L, the adjusted odds of dying were significantly greater for patients with a sodium 130-135 mmol/L (odds ratio [OR], 1.53; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.33-1.76) and a sodium less than 130 mmol/L (OR, 3.26; 95% CI, 2.48-4.29). The adjusted odds of readmission were also increased for patients with a sodium of 130-135 mmol/L (OR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.12-1.46) and a sodium less than 130 mmol/L (OR, 1.44; 95% CI, 1.02-2.02). Conclusions: Hyponatremia is common in patients presenting with PE, and is an independent predictor of short-term mortality and hospital readmission.

Prognostic Importance of the Cuse of Renal Failure in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The prognostic value of the different causes of renal failure in cirrhosis is not well established. This study investigated the predictive value of the cause of renal failure in cirrhosis. METHODS: Five hundred sixty-two consecutive patients with cirrhosis and renal failure (as defined by serum creatinine 1.5 mg/dL on 2 successive determinations within 48 hours) hospitalized over a 6-year period in a single institution were included in a prospective study. The cause of renal failure was classified into 4 groups: renal failure associated with bacterial infections, renal failure associated with volume depletion, hepatorenal syndrome (HRS), and parenchymal nephropathy. The primary end point was survival at 3 months. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-three patients (82.4%) had renal failure that could be classified in 1 of 4 groups. The most frequent was renal failure associated with infections (213 cases; 46%), followed by hypovolemia-associated renal failure (149; 32%), HRS (60; 13%), and parenchymal nephropathy (41; 9%). The remaining patients had a combination of causes or miscellaneous conditions. Prognosis was markedly different according to cause of renal failure, 3-month probability of survival being 73% for parenchymal nephropathy, 46% for hypovolemia-associated renal failure, 31% for renal failure associated with infections, and 15% for HRS (P .0005). In a multivariate analysis adjusted for potentially confounding variables, cause of renal failure was independently associated with prognosis, together with MELD score, serum sodium, and hepatic encephalopathy at time of diagnosis of renal failure. CONCLUSIONS: A simple classification of patients with cirrhosis according to cause of renal failure is useful in assessment of prognosis and may help in decision making in liver transplantation.

Prognostic significance of nailfold capillary microscopy in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon and scleroderma-pattern abnormalities. A six-year follow-up study.

The aim of this study was to assess the prognostic significance of scleroderma capillary pattern (SD-pattern) in patients with Raynaud's phenomenon. Thirty patients with a capillaroscopy examination suggestive of scleroderma (megacapillaries and/or avascularity) but without clinical criteria of scleroderma (ARA criteria) were reevaluated 6 years after the initial clinical and capillaroscopy examinations. SD-pattern abnormalities were classified according to a semiquantitative method. Eight out of the 28 evaluated patients (28%) developed a scleroderma spectrum disorder (SDS). The presence of avascularity and/or a mean of more than two megacapillaries digit greatly enhanced the percentage of evolution toward SDS (70%/88% respectively). Most of the patients with few enlarged capillaries and no capillary rarefaction at entry had primary acrocyanosis (11/15). None of them developed SDS. The microangiopathy disappeared during the follow-up period in most of these patients (14/15). These results confirm the prognostic value of SD-pattern capillary abnormalities for SDS. Primary acrocyanosis, a benign clinical entity should be considered in presence of few megacapillaries and without capillary rarefaction.

PAX3/FOXO1 fusion gene status is the key prognostic molecular marker in rhabdomyosarcoma and significantly improves current risk stratification.

PURPOSE: To improve the risk stratification of patients with rhabdomyosarcoma (RMS) through the use of clinical and molecular biologic data. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two independent data sets of gene-expression profiling for 124 and 101 patients with RMS were used to derive prognostic gene signatures by using a meta-analysis. These and a previously published metagene signature were evaluated by using cross validation analyses. A combined clinical and molecular risk-stratification scheme that incorporated the PAX3/FOXO1 fusion gene status was derived from 287 patients with RMS and evaluated. RESULTS: We showed that our prognostic gene-expression signature and the one previously published performed well with reproducible and significant effects. However, their effect was reduced when cross validated or tested in independent data and did not add new prognostic information over the fusion gene status, which is simpler to assay. Among nonmetastatic patients, patients who were PAX3/FOXO1 positive had a significantly poorer outcome compared with both alveolar-negative and PAX7/FOXO1-positive patients. Furthermore, a new clinicomolecular risk score that incorporated fusion gene status (negative and PAX3/FOXO1 and PAX7/FOXO1 positive), Intergroup Rhabdomyosarcoma Study TNM stage, and age showed a significant increase in performance over the current risk-stratification scheme. CONCLUSION: Gene signatures can improve current stratification of patients with RMS but will require complex assays to be developed and extensive validation before clinical application. A significant majority of their prognostic value was encapsulated by the fusion gene status. A continuous risk score derived from the combination of clinical parameters with the presence or absence of PAX3/FOXO1 represents a robust approach to improving current risk-adapted therapy for RMS.

Thrombocytosis as a prognostic marker in stage III and IV serous ovarian cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Thrombocytosis is an adverse prognostic factor in many types of cancer. We investigated if pre-treatment increased platelet counts provide prognostic information specifically in patients with stage III and IV serous ovarian cancer which is the most common clinical presentation of ovarian cancer. METHODS: Platelet number on diagnosis of stage III and IV serous ovarian adenocarcinoma was evaluated in 91 patients for whom there were complete follow-up data on progression and survival. Survival and progression free survival of patients with normal platelet counts (150-350 ×10(9)/L) was compared with that of patients with thrombocytosis (>350×10(9)/L) by χ(2) and logrank tests. RESULTS: The median age of the patients was 66 years-old. From the 91 patients, 52 (57.1%) had normal platelet counts (median, 273×10(9)/L; range, 153-350) at diagnosis of their disease and 39 patients (42.9%) had thrombocytosis (median, 463×10(9)/L; range, 354-631). In the group of patients with normal platelet counts, 24 of the 52 patients had died with a median survival of 43 months (range, 3-100). In the group of patients with thrombocytosis, 24 of the 39 patients had died with a median survival of 23 months (range, 4-79). In the entire group of 91 patients there was a statistically significant difference of the overall survival and progression-free survival between the two groups (logrank test P=0.02 and P=0.007, respectively). CONCLUSION: In this retrospective analysis of stage III and IV ovarian cancer patients, thrombocytosis at the time of diagnosis had prognostic value regarding overall survival and progression-free survival.

Mir-21-Sox2 Axis Delineates Glioblastoma Subtypes with Prognostic Impact.

UNLABELLED: Glioblastoma (GBM) is the most aggressive human brain tumor. Although several molecular subtypes of GBM are recognized, a robust molecular prognostic marker has yet to be identified. Here, we report that the stemness regulator Sox2 is a new, clinically important target of microRNA-21 (miR-21) in GBM, with implications for prognosis. Using the MiR-21-Sox2 regulatory axis, approximately half of all GBM tumors present in the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and in-house patient databases can be mathematically classified into high miR-21/low Sox2 (Class A) or low miR-21/high Sox2 (Class B) subtypes. This classification reflects phenotypically and molecularly distinct characteristics and is not captured by existing classifications. Supporting the distinct nature of the subtypes, gene set enrichment analysis of the TCGA dataset predicted that Class A and Class B tumors were significantly involved in immune/inflammatory response and in chromosome organization and nervous system development, respectively. Patients with Class B tumors had longer overall survival than those with Class A tumors. Analysis of both databases indicated that the Class A/Class B classification is a better predictor of patient survival than currently used parameters. Further, manipulation of MiR-21-Sox2 levels in orthotopic mouse models supported the longer survival of the Class B subtype. The MiR-21-Sox2 association was also found in mouse neural stem cells and in the mouse brain at different developmental stages, suggesting a role in normal development. Therefore, this mechanism-based classification suggests the presence of two distinct populations of GBM patients with distinguishable phenotypic characteristics and clinical outcomes. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT: Molecular profiling-based classification of glioblastoma (GBM) into four subtypes has substantially increased our understanding of the biology of the disease and has pointed to the heterogeneous nature of GBM. However, this classification is not mechanism based and its prognostic value is limited. Here, we identify a new mechanism in GBM (the miR-21-Sox2 axis) that can classify ∼50% of patients into two subtypes with distinct molecular, radiological, and pathological characteristics. Importantly, this classification can predict patient survival better than the currently used parameters. Further, analysis of the miR-21-Sox2 relationship in mouse neural stem cells and in the mouse brain at different developmental stages indicates that miR-21 and Sox2 are predominantly expressed in mutually exclusive patterns, suggesting a role in normal neural development.

Prognostic factors for progression-free and overall survival in advanced biliary tract cancer.

BACKGROUND: Biliary tract cancer is an uncommon cancer with a poor outcome. We assembled data from the National Cancer Research Institute (UK) ABC-02 study and 10 international studies to determine prognostic outcome characteristics for patients with advanced disease. METHODS: Multivariable analyses of the final dataset from the ABC-02 study were carried out. All variables were simultaneously included in a Cox proportional hazards model, and backward elimination was used to produce the final model (using a significance level of 10%), in which the selected variables were associated independently with outcome. This score was validated externally by receiver operating curve (ROC) analysis using the independent international dataset. RESULTS: A total of 410 patients were included from the ABC-02 study and 753 from the international dataset. An overall survival (OS) and progression-free survival (PFS) Cox model was derived from the ABC-02 study. White blood cells, haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, neutrophils, gender, and performance status were considered prognostic for survival (all with P < 0.10). Patients with metastatic disease {hazard ratio (HR) 1.56 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.20-2.02]} and Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) 2 had worse survival [HR 2.24 (95% CI 1.53-3.28)]. In a dataset restricted to patients who received cisplatin and gemcitabine with ECOG PS 0 and 1, only haemoglobin, disease status, bilirubin, and neutrophils were associated with PFS and OS. ROC analysis suggested the models generated from the ABC-02 study had a limited prognostic value [6-month PFS: area under the curve (AUC) 62% (95% CI 57-68); 1-year OS: AUC 64% (95% CI 58-69)]. CONCLUSION: These data propose a set of prognostic criteria for outcome in advanced biliary tract cancer derived from the ABC-02 study that are validated in an international dataset. Although these findings establish the benchmark for the prognostic evaluation of patients with ABC and confirm the value of longheld clinical observations, the ability of the model to correctly predict prognosis is limited and needs to be improved through identification of additional clinical and molecular markers.