Impact attribution models to evaluate drought effects: economic impacts, risk analyses and management strategies in Spain and Chile

La sequía es un fenómeno natural que se origina por el descenso de las precipitaciones con respecto a una media, y que resulta en la disponibilidad insuficiente de agua para alguna actividad. La creciente presión que se ha venido ejerciendo sobre los recursos hídricos ha hecho que los impactos de la sequía se hayan visto agravados a la vez que ha desencadenado situaciones de escasez de agua en muchas partes del planeta. Los países con clima mediterráneo son especialmente vulnerables a las sequías, y, su crecimiento económico dependiente del agua da lugar a impactos importantes. Para reducir los impactos de la sequía es necesaria una reducción de la vulnerabilidad a las sequías que viene dada por una gestión más eficiente y por una mejor preparación. Para ello es muy importante disponer de información acerca de los impactos y el alcance de este fenómeno natural. Esta investigación trata de abarcar el tema de los impactos de las sequías, de manera que plantea todos los tipos de impactos que pueden darse y además compara sus efectos en dos países (España y Chile). Para ello se proponen modelos de atribución de impactos que sean capaces de medir las pérdidas económicas causadas por la falta de agua. Los modelos propuestos tienen una base econométrica en la que se incluyen variables clave a la hora de evaluar los impactos como es una variable relacionada con la disponibilidad de agua, y otras de otra naturaleza para distinguir los efectos causados por otras fuentes de variación. Estos modelos se adaptan según la fase del estudio en la que nos encontremos. En primer lugar se miden los impactos directos sobre el regadío y se introduce en el modelo un factor de aleatoriedad para evaluar el riesgo económico de sequía. Esto se hace a dos niveles geográficos (provincial y de Unidad de Demanda Agraria) y además en el último se introduce no solo el riesgo de oferta sino también el riesgo de demanda de agua. La introducción de la perspectiva de riesgo en el modelo da lugar a una herramienta de gestión del riesgo económico que puede ser utilizada para estrategias de planificación. Más adelante una extensión del modelo econométrico se desarrolla para medir los impactos en el sector agrario (impactos directos sobre el regadío y el secano e impactos indirectos sobre la Agro Industria) para ello se adapta el modelo y se calculan elasticidades concatenadas entre la falta de agua y los impactos secundarios. Por último se plantea un modelo econométrico para el caso de estudio en Chile y se evalúa el impacto de las sequías debidas al fenómeno de La Niña. iv Los resultados en general muestran el valor que brinda el conocimiento más preciso acerca de los impactos, ya que en muchas ocasiones se tiende a sobreestimar los daños realmente producidos por la falta de agua. Los impactos indirectos de la sequía confirman su alcance a la vez que son amortiguados a medida que nos acercamos al ámbito macroeconómico. En el caso de Chile, su diferente gestión muestra el papel que juegan el fenómeno de El Niño y La Niña sobre los precios de los principales cultivos del país y sobre el crecimiento del sector. Para reducir las pérdidas y su alcance se deben plantear más medidas de mitigación que centren su esfuerzo en una gestión eficiente del recurso. Además la prevención debe jugar un papel muy importante para reducir los riesgos que pueden sufrirse ante situaciones de escasez. ABSTRACT Drought is a natural phenomenon that originates by the decrease in rainfall in comparison to the average, and that results in water shortages for some activities. The increasing pressure on water resources has augmented the impact of droughts just as water scarcity has become an additional problem in many parts of the planet. Countries with Mediterranean climate are especially vulnerable to drought, and its waterdependent economic growth leads to significant impacts. To reduce the negative impacts it is necessary to deal with drought vulnerability, and to achieve this objective a more efficient management is needed. The availability of information about the impacts and the scope of droughts become highly important. This research attempts to encompass the issue of drought impacts, and therefore it characterizes all impact types that may occur and also compares its effects in two different countries (Spain and Chile). Impact attribution models are proposed in order to measure the economic losses caused by the lack of water. The proposed models are based on econometric approaches and they include key variables for measuring the impacts. Variables related to water availability, crop prices or time trends are included to be able to distinguish the effects caused by any of the possible sources. These models are adapted for each of the parts of the study. First, the direct impacts on irrigation are measured and a source of variability is introduced into the model to assess the economic risk of drought. This is performed at two geographic levels provincial and Agricultural Demand Unit. In the latter, not only the supply risk is considered but also the water demand risk side. The introduction of the risk perspective into the model results in a risk management tool that can be used for planning strategies. Then an extension of the econometric model is developed to measure the impacts on the agricultural sector (direct impacts on irrigated and rainfed productions and indirect impacts on the Agri-food Industry). For this aim the model is adapted and concatenated elasticities between the lack of water and the impacts are estimated. Finally an econometric model is proposed for the Chilean case study to evaluate the impact of droughts, especially caused by El Niño Southern Oscillation. The overall results show the value of knowing better about the precise impacts that often tend to be overestimated. The models allow for measuring accurate impacts due to the lack of water. Indirect impacts of drought confirm their scope while they confirm also its dilution as we approach the macroeconomic variables. In the case of Chile, different management strategies of the country show the role of ENSO phenomena on main crop prices and on economic trends. More mitigation measures focused on efficient resource management are necessary to reduce drought losses. Besides prevention must play an important role to reduce the risks that may be suffered due to shortages.

An empirical mixed model to quantify climate influence on the growth of Pinus halepensis Mill. stands in South-Eastern Spain

The influence of climate on forest stand composition, development and growth is undeniable. Many studies have tried to quantify the effect of climatic variables on forest growth and yield. These works become especially important because there is a need to predict the effects of climate change on the development of forest ecosystems. One of the ways of facing this problem is the inclusion of climatic variables into the classic empirical growth models. The work has a double objective: (i) to identify the indicators which best describe the effect of climate on Pinus halepensis growth and (ii) to quantify such effect in several scenarios of rainfall decrease which are likely to occur in the Mediterranean area. A growth mixed model for P. halepensis including climatic variables is presented in this work. Growth estimates are based on data from the Spanish National Forest Inventory (SNFI). The best results are obtained for the indices including rainfall, or rainfall and temperature together, with annual precipitation, precipitation effectiveness, Emberger?s index or free bioclimatic intensity standing out among them. The final model includes Emberger?s index, free bioclimatic intensity and interactions between competition and climate indices. The results obtained show that a rainfall decrease about 5% leads to a decrease in volume growth of 5.5?7.5% depending on site quality.

News in engineering education in Spain effective from 2010 in presence of external changes and mixed crisis, looking mostly to agro and civil engineers.

The engineering careers models were diverse in Europe, and are adopting now in Spain the Bolonia process for European Universities. Separated from older Universities, that are in part technically active, Civil Engineering (Caminos, Canales y Puertos) started at end of 18th century in Spain adopting the French models of Upper Schools for state civil servants with exam at entry. After 1800 intense wars, to conserve forest regions Ingenieros de Montes appeared as Upper School, and in 1855 also the Ingenieros Agrónomos to push up related techniques and practices. Other Engineers appeared as Upper Schools but more towards private factories. These ES got all adapted Lower Schools of Ingeniero Tecnico. Recently both grew much in number and evolved, linked also to recognized Professions. Spanish society, into European Community, evolved across year 2000, in part highly well, but with severe discordances, that caused severe youth unemployment with 2008-2011 crisis. With Bolonia process high formal changes step in from 2010-11, accepted with intense adaptation. The Lower Schools are changing towards the Upper Schools, and both that have shifted since 2010-11 various 4-years careers (Grado), some included into the precedent Professions, and diverse Masters. Acceptation of them to get students has started relatively well, and will evolve, and acceptation of new grades for employment in Spain, Europe or outside will be essential. Each Grado has now quite rigid curricula and programs, MOODLE was introduced to connect pupils, some specific uses of Personal Computers are taught in each subject. Escuela de Agronomos centre, reorganized with its old name in its precedent buildings at entrance of Campus Moncloa, offers Grados of Agronomic Engineering and Science for various public and private activities for agriculture, Alimentary Engineering for alimentary activities and control, Agro-Environmental Engineering more related to environment activities, and in part Biotechnology also in laboratories in Campus Monte-Gancedo for Biotechnology of Plants and Computational Biotechnology. Curricula include Basics, Engineering, Practices, Visits, English, ?project of end of career?, Stays. Some masters will conduce to specific professional diploma, list includes now Agro-Engineering, Agro-Forestal Biotechnology, Agro and Natural Resources Economy, Complex Physical Systems, Gardening and Landscaping, Rural Genie, Phytogenetic Resources, Plant Genetic Resources, Environmental Technology for Sustainable Agriculture, Technology for Human Development and Cooperation.

Effects of conservation interventions on the archaeological Roman site of Merida (Spain). Advance of research.

Research on the assessment of the effects of conservation/restoration treatments on stone material has been significant in recent years, with focus on the early observation of decay caused by the application of these treatments. However, in the case of archaeological sites, research is still scarce and few studies on the subject have been published. Restoration, as everything else, has changed according to trends, mainly guided by the release of new products and technologies, an experimental field where scientific assessment of suitability, efficacy and durability pre-evaluations of treatments are not always conducted. Some efforts have been made to solve this problem in the architectural field, where functional needs and technical requirements force to set clear standards. Unfortunately, archaeological sites, unlike historic buildings, have specific features that preclude the extrapolation of these results. A critical review of the methodologies, products and restoration materials is necessary, coupled with deeper research on degradation mechanisms caused by these treatments in the mid- and long-term. The aim of this paper is to introduce the research on the above issues using Merida as a case study.

Road fright transport decoupling: A comparative analysis between the United Kingdom and Spain

Economic growth has traditionally been linked to road freight transport demand, leading to a steady rise in social and environmental impacts. Concern about this problem has caused the EU to promote a decoupling strategy aimed at boosting sustainable development in European countries by improving the efficiency of transport systems without curbing economic growth. Over the last few years empirical evidence in some countries such as the United Kingdom has shown an increase in GDP while the volume of road freight traffic has remained stable or even decreased. This paper compares recent decoupling trends by analyzing the evolution of road tonne-kms/GDP relationship in the United Kingdom and Spain from 1999 to 2007. This comparison seeks to identify the main differences and key drivers of decoupling in both countries. We first provide an overview of the divergences between both economic structures and levels of road transport intensity. Then we conduct a decomposition analysis in order to identify the variables that explain the evolution of truck traffic per unit of GDP in each country. The results show that the increasing share of services in GDP has substantially contributed to decreasing road transport demand in both cases. Changes in road transport intensity due to improvements in logistic and supply chain management have been more successful in the UK than in Spain.

Assessment of problem solving in computing studies

The assessment of learning outcomes is a key concept in the European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System (ECTS) since credits are awarded when the assessment shows the competences which were aimed at have been developed at an appropriate level. This paper describes a study which was first part of the Bologna Experts Team-Spain project and then developed as an independent study. It was carried out with the overall goal to gain experience in the assessment of learning outcomes. More specifically it aimed at 1) designing procedures for the assessment of learning outcomes related to these compulsory generic competences; 2) testing some basic psychometric features that an assessment device with some consequences for the subjects being evaluated needs to prove; 3) testing different procedures of standard setting, and 4) using assessment results as orienting feedback to students and their tutors. The process of development of tests to carry out the assessment of learning outcomes is described as well as some basic features regarding their reliability and validity. First conclusions on the comparison of the results achieved at two academic levels are also presented.

Towards a fuel poverty definition for Spain

During the last years, an increasing interest has been developed so as to address the problem of fuel poverty which is already affecting a huge number of European citizens. In 2013, the European Parliament has claimed to the Commission and State Members through several resolutions, the legislative development of policies in order to tackle energy vulnerability of households. In 2000 the UK Government, through the Warm Homes and Energy Conservation Act, established that a person could be regarded as fuel poor if he is a member of a household that cannot get warmth at a reasonable cost. Nevertheless, in order to establish the incidence of fuel poverty among Spanish households, it must be understood which should be the adequate thresholds for indoor temperatures. The research here presented proposes new indoor temperature thresholds for fuel poor households based on adaptive comfort models.

Towards downscaling of aerosol gridded dataset for improving solar resource assessment, an application to Spain

Solar radiation estimates with clear sky models require estimations of aerosol data. The low spatial resolution of current aerosol datasets, with their remarkable drift from measured data, poses a problem in solar resource estimation. This paper proposes a new downscaling methodology by combining support vector machines for regression (SVR) and kriging with external drift, with data from the MACC reanalysis datasets and temperature and rainfall measurements from 213 meteorological stations in continental Spain. The SVR technique was proven efficient in aerosol variable modeling. The Linke turbidity factor (TL) and the aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD 550) estimated with SVR generated significantly lower errors in AERONET positions than MACC reanalysis estimates. The TL was estimated with relative mean absolute error (rMAE) of 10.2% (compared with AERONET), against the MACC rMAE of 18.5%. A similar behavior was seen with AOD 550, estimated with rMAE of 8.6% (compared with AERONET), against the MACC rMAE of 65.6%. Kriging using MACC data as an external drift was found useful in generating high resolution maps (0.05° × 0.05°) of both aerosol variables. We created high resolution maps of aerosol variables in continental Spain for the year 2008. The proposed methodology was proven to be a valuable tool to create high resolution maps of aerosol variables (TL and AOD 550). This methodology shows meaningful improvements when compared with estimated available databases and therefore, leads to more accurate solar resource estimations. This methodology could also be applied to the prediction of other atmospheric variables, whose datasets are of low resolution.

Analysis and Potential of Use of Biomass Energy in Canary Islands, Spain

Biomass has always been associated with the development of the population in the Canary Islands as the first source of elemental energy that was in the archipelago and the main cause of deforestation of forests, which over the years has been replaced by forest fossil fuels. The Canary Islands store a large amount of energy in the form of biomass. This may be important on a small scale for the design of small power plants with similar fuels from agricultural activities, and these plants could supply rural areas that could have self-sufficiency energy. The problem with the Canary Islands for a boost in this achievement is to ensure the supply to the consumer centers or power plants for greater efficiency that must operate continuously, allowing them to have a resource with regularity, quality and at an acceptable cost. In the Canary Islands converge also a unique topography with a very rugged terrain that makes it greater difficult to use and significantly more expensive. In this work all these aspects are studied, giving conclusions, action paths and theoretical potentials.

Crossed-arch vaults in late-gothic and early Renaissance vaulting: a problem in building technology transfer

Crossed-arch vaults are a particular type of ribbed vaults. Their main feature is that the ribs that form the vault are intertwined, forming polygons or stars and leaving an empty space in the middle. The firsts appear in Córdoba in the second half of the 10th Century. Afterwards, the type diffused through Spain and North Africa, 11th_13th Centuries. These vaults reappear in Armenia in the 13th Century. In the 14th and 15th Century a few examples are found both in England (Durham, Raby) and Central Europe (Prague, Landshut, Vienna). At about the same time, Leonardo da Vinci produced designs for the Tiburio (Ciborium) of Milan cathedral with a cross-arched structure and proposed tests to assess the strength; he also, made use of the same pattern of vault for Renaissance centralized churches. Eventually, the type can be tracked through the 17th (Guarini) and 18th (Vittone) Centuries, until Spanish post war architecture in the 1940-60s (Moya). Some questions arose, which so far, have not been answered. How was it possible that a particular type of vault had such enormous geographical spread? How was it transmitted from Córdoba to the Caucasus? The matter is one of transfer of knowledge, ideas, and technology; it relates both aesthetics and construction.

Considering cycling for commuting : the role of mode familiarity : an exploration on the (circular) relation between cycling behaviours and attitudes toward cycling in Vitoria-Gasteiz, Spain

¿La gente utiliza la bicicleta porque les gusta? ¿O es el propio hecho de usarla la razón por la que les gusta hacerlo? ¿O es una combinación de las dos? Este tipo de preguntas reflejan un problema que se puede llamar ‘el círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’: para poder considerar el uso de la bicicleta en el conjunto de posibles opciones a escoger, un individuo tiene que tener creencias positivas sobre ella, sobre todo en el caso de ‘contextos de bajo uso’. Pero parece poco probable que se formen creencias positivas cuando hay bajos niveles de familiaridad al modo, es decir, con un bajo conocimiento de sus características, su funcionamiento y del imaginario asociado; al mismo tiempo, la familiaridad irá alcanzando niveles más altos conforme aumente el tiempo y la intensidad con la que se utilice la bicicleta a lo largo de la vida de los individuos. El problema parece un circulo recursivo huevo-gallina, ya que es difícil que alguien considere el usar la bicicleta en lugares donde su uso es una práctica poco extendida. En estos lugares, y dentro del conglomerado actual de tecnologías, infraestructuras, reglas, prácticas de los usuarios y preferencias culturales que se han desarrollado alrededor del automóvil (el actual "sistema socio-técnico de la movilidad urbana", Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) usar la bicicleta es considerado por la mayoría como algo difícil, inseguro, y anormal. Como consecuencia, los procesos de aumento de familiaridad con la bicicleta permanecen inactivos. La tesis asume la familiaridad como una fuente de información e influencia sobre las creencias positivas sobre la bicicleta. En ‘contextos de bajo uso’, sin familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta, estas creencias sólo pueden surgir de ciertos rasgos personales (afecto, valores, identidades, voluntad, etc.). Tal como han evidenciado investigaciones recientes, en estos contextos la posibilidad de considerar el uso de la bicicleta (y su eventual adopción), se circunscribe principalmente a los ‘entusiastas’, a los que están dispuestos a “ir contra corriente” (Horton & Parkin 2012), limitando el alcance de las políticas de promoción. La investigación llevada a cabo en esta tesis ofrece un nuevo enfoque al problema del ‘círculo de la consideración de la bicicleta’. Para ello, plantea un modelo en el que se introduce a la familiaridad como un constructo que media entre el comportamiento final –qué modo de transporte elige el individuo– y el conjunto de constructos psicosociales que preceden la elección modal (creencias y actitudes). La familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se concibe como una medida de la intensidad relativa del uso de una bicicleta, real y percibida (basándose en Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) que puede formarse de manera distinta según sus fines (utilitarios o no utilitarios). El constructo familiaridad con el modo bicicleta está relacionado con la cantidad de tiempo, la intensidad y la regularidad con la que un individuo ha hecho uso de la bicicleta a lo largo de su vida. La familiaridad se concibe así como una condición que permite definir adecuadamente el contexto en el que se toman las decisiones modales de los individuos, en línea con investigaciones que postulan patrones de causalidad alternativos entre los procesos cognitivos de elección y los comportamientos modales (Tardif 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). De este modo se plantea que el esquema unidireccional actitudesconductas podría no ser completamente valido en el caso de la consideración de la bicicleta, explorando la hipótesis que sean las propias conductas a influenciar la formación de las actitudes. En esta tesis, el constructo de familiaridad se articula teórica y metodológicamente, y se emplea un instrumento de diseño transversal para contrastarlo. Los resultados de una encuesta telefónica a una muestra representativa de 736 personas en la ciudad española de Vitoria-Gasteiz proveen evidencias que sugieren –aunque de forma preliminar– que la familiaridad juega un papel de mediadora en la relación entre la utilización de la bicicleta y la formación de las creencias y actitudes hacia el su uso. La tesis emplea mediciones para cada individuo con respecto tanto a su consideración como a su familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta. Éstas mediciones se definen haciendo uso del análisis factorial exploratorio (AFE). Por un lado, el AFE arroja una estructura del constructo ‘consideración’ formada por cuatro factores, tres de ellos asociados con elementos positivos y uno con elementos negativos: (1) de cómo el uso de la bicicleta se considera verde e inteligente (G&S); (2) sobre su carácter agradable y adecuado (P&S); (3) sobre su eficacia como modo de transporte para ir al trabajo (E); y (4) sobre los principales inconvenientes de su uso, es decir, las dificultades implícitas (sudoración y estar expuestos a las inclemencias del tiempo) y la sensación de inseguridad que genera (sentirse en riesgo de accidentes y estresarse por el tráfico) (D&T). Por otro lado, la familiaridad al uso de la bicicleta se mide en dos distintas variables ordinales (según se base en el uso utilitario o no utilitario). Como resultado, se puede hablar de que cada individuo se encuentra en una de las siguientes cuatro etapas en orden creciente hacia una familiaridad completa al modo: no familiarizados; apenas familiarizados; moderadamente familiarizados; totalmente familiarizados. El análisis de los datos de los cuatro grupos de sujetos de la muestra, –definidos de acuerdo con cada una de las cuatro etapas de familiaridad definidas– ha evidenciado la existencia de diferencias intergrupo estadísticamente significativas, especialmente para la medida relacionada con el uso utilitario. Asimismo, las personas en los niveles inferiores de familiaridad tienen una consideración menor de los aspectos positivos de la bicicleta y por el contrario presentan preocupaciones mayores hacia las características negativas respecto a aquellas personas que están más familiarizados en el uso utilitario. El uso, aunque esporádico, de una bicicleta para fines utilitarios (ir de compras, hacer recados, etc.), a diferencia de no usarla en absoluto, aparece asociado a unas puntuaciones significativamente más altas en los tres factores positivos (G&S, E, P&S), mientras que parece estar asociado a puntuaciones significativamente más bajas en el factor relacionado con las características negativas (D&U). Aparecen resultados similares cuando se compara un uso moderado, con uno esporádico, sobre todo con respecto a la consideración de las características negativas. Los resultados de esta tesis están en línea con la literatura anterior que se ha basado en variables similares (por ejemplo, de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; y van Bekkum et al. 2011a, entre otros), pero en este estudio las diferencias se observan en un contexto de bajo uso y se derivan de un análisis de toda la población de personas que se desplazan a su lugar de trabajo o estudio, lo cual eleva la fiabilidad de los resultados. La posibilidad de que unos niveles más altos de uso de la bicicleta para fines utilitarios puedan llevar a niveles más positivos de su consideración abre el camino a implicaciones teóricas y de políticas que se discuten en la tesis. Con estos resultados se argumenta que el enfoque convencional basado en el cambio de actitudes puede no ser el único y prioritario para lograr cambios a la hora de fomentar el uso de la bicicleta. Los resultados apuntan al potencial de otros esquemas de causalidad, basados en patrones de influencia más descentrados y distribuidos, y que adopten una mirada más positiva hacia los hábitos de transporte, conceptualizándolos como “inteligencia encarnada y pre-reflexiva” (Schwanen et al. 2012). Tales esquemas conducen a un enfoque más práctico para la promoción del uso de la bicicleta, con estrategias que podrían basarse en acciones de ‘degustación’ de su uso o de mayor ‘exposición’ a su uso. Is the fact that people like cycling the reason for them to cycle? Or is the fact that they do cycle the reason for them to like cycling? Or is a combination of the two? This kind of questions reflect a problem that can be called ‘the cycle of cycling consideration’: in order to consider cycling in the set of possible options to be chosen, an individual needs to have positive beliefs about it, especially in the case of ‘low-cycling contexts’. However, positive beliefs seem unlikely to be formed with low levels of mode familiarity, say, with a low acquaintance with mode features, functioning and images; at the same time, higher levels of familiarity are likely to be reached if cycling is practised over relative threshold levels of intensities and extensively across individual life courses. The problem looks like a chicken-egg recursive cycle, since the latter condition is hardly met in places where cycling is little practised. In fact, inside the current conglomerate of technologies, infrastructures, regulations, user practices, cultural preferences that have grown around the automobile (the current “socio-technical system of urban mobility”, Urry 2004; Geels 2005, 2012) cycling is commonly considered as difficult, unsafe, and abnormal. Consequently, the processes of familiarity forming remain disabled, and, as a result, beliefs cannot rely on mode familiarity as a source of information and influence. Without cycling familiarity, origins of positive beliefs are supposed to rely only on personal traits (affect, values, identities, willingness, etc.), which, in low-cycling contexts, confine the possibility of cycling consideration (and eventual adoption) mainly to ‘cycling enthusiasts’ who are willing to “go against the grain” (Horton & Parkin 2012), as it results from previous research. New research conducted by author provides theoretical insights for a different approach of the cycling consideration problem in which the presence of the new construct of cycling familiarity is hypothesised in the relationship between mode choice behaviour and the set of psychosocial constructs that are supposed to precede it (beliefs and attitudes). Cycling familiarity is conceived as a measure of the real and the perceived relative intensity of use of a bicycle (building upon Diana & Mokhtarian 2009) which may be differently formed for utilitarian or non-utilitarian purposes. The construct is assumed to be related to the amount of time, the intensity and the regularity an individual spends in using a bicycle for the two distinct categories of purposes, gaining in this way a certain level of acquaintance with the mode. Familiarity with a mode of transport is conceived as an enabling condition to properly define the decision-making context in which individual travel mode choices are taken, in line with rather disperse research efforts postulating inverse relationships between mode behaviours and mode choices (Tardiff 1977; Dobson et al. 1978; Golob et al. 1979; Golob 2001; Schwanen et al. 2012; Diana et al. 2009; Vij & Walker 2014). The new construct is built theoretically and methodologically, and a cross-sectional design instrument is employed. Results from a telephone survey in a representative sample of 736 commuters in the Spanish city of Vitoria-Gasteiz, provide suggestive –although preliminary– evidence on the role of mode familiarity as a mediator in the relationship between cycling use and the formation of beliefs and attitudes toward cycling. Measures of both cycling consideration and cycling familiarity are defined making use of exploratory factor analysis. On the one hand, four distinct cycling consideration measures are created, based on attitude expressions on four underlying factors relating to the cycling commuting behaviour: on how cycling commuting is considered green and smart (G&S); on its pleasant and suited character (P&S); on its efficiency as a mode of transport for commuting (E); and on the main drawbacks of its use, namely the difficulties implied (sweating and being exposed to adverse weather conditions) and the sense of unsafety it generates (feeling at risk of accidents and getting stressed by traffic) (D&U). On the other hand, dimensions of cycling familiarity are measured on two distinct ordinal variables (whether based on the utilitarian or non-utilitarian use) comprising four stages to a complete mode familiarity: not familiar; barely familiar; moderately familiar; fully familiar. For each of the four stages of cycling familiarity defined, statistical significant differences are found, especially for the measure related to the utilitarian use. Consistently, people at the lower levels of cycling familiarity have a lower consideration of the positive aspects of cycling and conversely they exhibit higher concerns towards the negative characteristics than those individuals that are more familiar in utilitarian cycling. Using a bicycle occasionally for practical purposes, as opposed to not using it at all, seems associated to significant higher scores in the three positive factors (G&S, E, P&S) while it appears to be associated to significant lower scores in the factor relating with the negative characteristics of cycling commuting (D&U). A same pattern also occurs with a moderate use, as opposed to an occasional one, especially for the consideration of the negative characteristics. The results are in line with previous literature based on similar variables (e.g. de Geus et al. 2008; Stinson & Bhat 2003, 2004; Hunt & Abraham 2006; and van Bekkum et al. 2011a, among others), but in this study the differences are observed in a low-cycling context and derive from an analysis of the entire population of commuters, which rises the reliability of results.

The role of the social environment in non-suicidal self-injury among LGBTQ youth: A mixed methods study

Non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI), such as cutting and burning, is a widespread social problem among lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender, queer, and questioning (LGBTQ) youth. Extant research indicates that this population is more than twice as likely to engage in NSSI than heterosexual and cisgender (non-transgender) youth. Despite the scope of this social problem, it remains relatively unexamined in the literature. Research on other risk behaviors among LGBTQ youth indicates that experiencing homophobia and transphobia in key social contexts such as families, schools, and peer relationships contributes to health disparities among this group. Consequently, the aims of this study were to examine: (1) the relationship between LGBTQ youth's social environments and their NSSI behavior, and (2) whether/how specific aspects of the social environment contribute to an understanding of NSSI among LGBTQ youth. This study was conducted using an exploratory, sequential mixed methods design with two phases. The first phase of the study involved analysis of transcripts from interviews conducted with 44 LGBTQ youth recruited from a community-based organization. In this phase, five qualitative themes were identified: (1) Violence; (2) Misconceptions, Stigma, and Shame; (3) Negotiating LGBTQ Identity; (4) Invisibility and Isolation; and (5) Peer Relationships. Results from the qualitative phase were used to identify key variables and specify statistical models in the second, quantitative, phase of the study, using secondary data from a survey of 252 LGBTQ youth. The qualitative phase revealed how LGBTQ youth, themselves, described the role of the social environment in their NSSI behavior, while the quantitative phase was used to determine whether the qualitative findings could be used to predict engagement in NSSI among a larger sample of LGBTQ youth. The quantitative analyses found that certain social-environmental factors such as experiencing physical abuse at home, feeling unsafe at school, and greater openness about sexual orientation significantly predicted the likelihood of engaging in NSSI among LGBTQ youth. Furthermore, depression partially mediated the relationships between family physical abuse and NSSI and feeling unsafe at school and NSSI. The qualitative and quantitative results were compared in the interpretation phase to explore areas of convergence and incongruence. Overall, this study's findings indicate that social-environmental factors are salient to understanding NSSI among LGBTQ youth. The particular social contexts in which LGBTQ youth live significantly influence their engagement in this risk behavior. These findings can inform the development of culturally relevant NSSI interventions that address the social realities of LGBTQ youth's lives.

Relationship between piezometric level and ground deformations measured by means of DInSAR in the Vega Media of the Segura River (Spain)

Differential SAR Interferometry (DInSAR) is a remote sensing method with the well demonstrated ability to monitor geological hazards like earthquakes, landslides and subsidence. Among all these hazards, subsidence involves the settlement of the ground surface affecting wide areas. Frequently, subsidence is induced by overexploitation of aquifers and constitutes a common problem that affects developed societies. The excessive pumping of underground water decreases the piezometric level in the subsoil and, as a consequence, increases the effective stresses with depth causing a consolidation of the soil column. This consolidation originates a settlement of ground surface that must be withstood by civil structures built on these areas. In this paper we make use of an advanced DInSAR approach - the Coherent Pixels Technique (CPT) [1] - to monitor subsidence induced by aquifer overexploitation in the Vega Media of the Segura River (SE Spain) from 1993 to the present. 28 ERS-1/2 scenes covering a time interval of about 10 years were used to study this phenomenon. The deformation map retrieved with CPT technique shows settlements of up to 80 mm at some points of the studied zone. These values agree with data obtained by means of borehole extensometers, but not with the distribution of damaged buildings, well points and basements, because the occurrence of damages also depends on the structural quality of the buildings and their foundations. The most interesting relationship observed is the one existing between piezometric changes, settlement evolution and local geology. Three main patterns of ground surface and piezometric level behaviour have been distinguished for the study zone during this period: 1) areas where deformation occurs while ground conditions remain altered (recent deformable sediments), 2) areas with no deformation (old and non-deformable materials), and 3) areas where ground deformation mimics piezometric level changes (expansive soils). The temporal relationship between deformation patterns and soil characteristics has been analysed in this work, showing a delay between them. Moreover, this technique has allowed the measurement of ground subsidence for a period (1993-1995) where no instrument information was available.

Primary school teacher’s noticing of students’ mathematical thinking in problem solving

Professional noticing of students’ mathematical thinking in problem solving involves the identification of noteworthy mathematical ideas of students’ mathematical thinking and its interpretation to make decisions in the teaching of mathematics. The goal of this study is to begin to characterize pre-service primary school teachers’ noticing of students’ mathematical thinking when students solve tasks that involve proportional and non-proportional reasoning. From the analysis of how pre-service primary school teachers notice students’ mathematical thinking, we have identified an initial framework with four levels of development. This framework indicates a possible trajectory in the development of primary teachers’ professional noticing.