819 resultados para Probabilistic planning


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Government policy change to self detennination over the past two decades has gradually given rise to various structures of Indigenous self government across Australia. Indigenous Local Government Authorities (LGAs) are the governing structure which receive the greatest devolution of State authority, especially those found in Queensland and the Northern Territory. Their statutory basis has developed over a relatively short period of time and is still very much evolving. This paper explores what opportunities exist for Indigenous LGAs to adopt statutory planning mechanisms.

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The purpose of this study was threefold: first, the study was designed to illustrate the use of data and information collected in food safety surveys in a quantitative risk assessment. In this case, the focus was on the food service industry; however, similar data from other parts of the food chain could be similarly incorporated. The second objective was to quantitatively describe and better understand the role that the food service industry plays in the safety of food. The third objective was to illustrate the additional decision-making information that is available when uncertainty and variability are incorporated into the modelling of systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The Queensland Government is increasingly using participatory planning as a means to improve infrastructure and service delivery to Indigenous settlements. In addition to technical and economic goals, participatory planning practice seeks also to achieve social development goals, including empowerment, capacity building, community control and ownership. This article presents the findings of an evaluation of one such planning project, conducted at Old Mapoon in 1995. Despite various efforts to follow participatory processes, the plan had mixed success in achieving social development goals. This suggests some misunderstandings between the practice of participatory planning and the workings of local governance. It also presents some opportunities for participatory planning methods to be integrated with more inclusive forms of governance.

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Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

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This report sets out the findings and recommendations of a review of the Public Management Career (EPPGG) undertaken between 5 and 9 January 2009. The purpose of the review was to clarify EPPGG???s role, functions and profile, and to develop proposals for improving its effectiveness and management, taking account of the context within which such improvements would have to be implemented. Specific objectives were to examine a number of human resources management (HRM) aspects of the career in the light of international practice, including recruitment; initial education; professional development; performance evaluation; deployment; mobility and networking.

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In administering their territories, most local municipalities aim to preserve their natural, historical and ethnographical resources while simultaneously using them to increase revenue and employment. In order to efficiently promote the products and services available and attract tourists, decision makers, private and public, need to know and incorporate tourists’ preferences in their marketing strategies. In this chapter we illustrate the use of stated preferences as an instrument to identify national and foreign tourists’ preferences regarding the products and services that the touristic destination of the Minho-Lima region (Northwest Portugal) should offer. As a starting point, we have taken the three general groups of touristic resources mentioned above as attributes. We take Ponte de Lima, a municipality in this region that has a strong cultural tourism potential as an example to identify possible future tourism scenarios for this territory. We believe the previously identified methodology can be a valuable instrument in the identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the selected territory and, thus, support the decision making process behind its future tourist development and marketing strategies.

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By acknowledging and dissecting the interconnected roles of customer satisfaction, quality, and strategic planning, this paper provides an analytical framework for creating a customer-driven organization and culture. It shows how quality starts and ends with the customer. Companies that are achieving long-term continuous improvement in quality tailored to customer satisfaction possess lasting characteristics such as customer orientation, customer consciousness, and customer responsiveness. In doing so, they liberate the quality concept from the narrow product or service focus to encompass total conformance to customer requirements in spite of the existing functionalization and departmentalization of modern complex structures. In addition to these key components, a customer-driven organization demands building and nurturing a customer satisfaction culture and value system that makes quality improvement and heightened concern for customer satisfaction a permanent aspect of organizational life.

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LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission

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LUDA is a research project of Key Action 4 "City of Tomorrow & Cultural Heritage" of the programme "Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development" within the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Commission

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O Planeamento Concomitante teve a sua origem no Reino Unido. É um método radical de intervenção social, baseado na Teoria de Afecto (Attachment Theory). O Planeamento Concomitante procura garantir que as crianças vulneráveis nas casas de acolhimento do Estado sejam adoptadas mais rapidamente possível. As crianças são acolhidas no âmbito deste Planeamento durante o período em que está em curso a avaliação da capacidade acolhedora dos pais adoptivos. As crianças sem condições de retorno para as suas famílias são desta forma legalmente adoptadas pelos pais adoptivos com quem as crianças já conseguiram desenvolver laços afectivos.