A probabilistic model estimating oil spill clean-up costs - a case study for the Gulf of Finland

Existing models estimating oil spill costs at sea are based on data from the past, and they usually lack a systematic approach. This make them passive, and limits their ability to forecast the effect of the changes in the oil combating fleet or location of a spill on the oil spill costs. In this paper we make an attempt towards the development of a probabilistic and systematic model estimating the costs of clean-up operations for the Gulf of Finland. For this purpose we utilize expert knowledge along with the available data and information from literature. Then, the obtained information is combined into a framework with the use of a Bayesian Belief Networks. Due to lack of data, we validate the model by comparing its results with existing models, with which we found good agreement. We anticipate that the presented model can contribute to the cost-effective oil-combating fleet optimization for the Gulf of Finland. It can also facilitate the accident consequences estimation in the framework of formal safety assessment (FSA).

Intelligent decision support for family financial planning

In today’s financial markets characterized by constantly changing tax laws and increasingly complex transactions, the demand for family financial planning (FFP) services is rising dramatically. However, the current trend to develop advisory systems that focus mainly on the financial or investment side fails to consider the whole picture of FFP. Separating financial or investment advice from legal and accounting advice may result in conflicting advice or important omissions that could lead to users suffering financial loss. In this paper, we propose a conceptual model for FFP decision-making process, followed by a novel architecture to support an aggregated FFP decision process by utilizing intelligentagents and Web-services technology. A prototype system for supporting FFP decision is presented to demonstrate the advances of the proposed Web-service multi-agentsbased system architecture and business value.

Examining the strategy development process through the lens of complex adaptive systems theory

The development of strategy remains a debate for academics and a concern for practitioners. Published research has focused on producing models for strategy development and on studying how strategy is developed in organisations. The Operational Research literature has highlighted the importance of considering complexity within strategic decision making; but little has been done to link strategy development with complexity theories, despite organisations and organisational environments becoming increasingly more complex. We review the dominant streams of strategy development and complexity theories. Our theoretical investigation results in the first conceptual framework which links an established Strategic Operational Research model, the Strategy Development Process model, with complexity via Complex Adaptive Systems theory. We present preliminary findings from the use of this conceptual framework applied to a longitudinal, in-depth case study, to demonstrate the advantages of using this integrated conceptual model. Our research shows that the conceptual model proposed provides rich data and allows for a more holistic examination of the strategy development process. © 2012 Operational Research Society Ltd. All rights reserved.

Gaussian process quantile regression using expectation propagation

Direct quantile regression involves estimating a given quantile of a response variable as a function of input variables. We present a new framework for direct quantile regression where a Gaussian process model is learned, minimising the expected tilted loss function. The integration required in learning is not analytically tractable so to speed up the learning we employ the Expectation Propagation algorithm. We describe how this work relates to other quantile regression methods and apply the method on both synthetic and real data sets. The method is shown to be competitive with state of the art methods whilst allowing for the leverage of the full Gaussian process probabilistic framework.

A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.

O arroz no varejo e os fatores que influenciam o dispêndio das famílias consumidoras

Apesar da idéia consagrada de que arroz é uma commodity e, portanto, pouco passível de diferenciação, há um grande número de produtos, com variação de tipo, classe, padrão, embalagem, marca etc. Observa-se significativa variabilidade nos preços, tanto entre diferentes marcas, fabricantes, lojas, como também para um mesmo produto, em um curto intervalo de tempo. Diante dessas constatações, questiona-se qual o efeito da estratégia de compra de arroz por parte dos consumidores sobre seus dispêndios. Este trabalho utiliza modelos matemáticos para simular o processo de decisão de compra dos consumidores com diferentes perfis de preferência, diante dos produtos nas gôndolas dos supermercados em uma cidade no estado do Rio Grande do Sul e outra em São Paulo.

Improvement of radiology services based on the process management approach

The health sector requires continuous investments to ensure the improvement of products and services from a technological standpoint, the use of new materials, equipment and tools, and the application of process management methods. Methods associated with the process management approach, such as the development of reference models of business processes, can provide significant innovations in the health sector and respond to the current market trend for modern management in this sector (Gunderman et al. (2008) [4]). This article proposes a process model for diagnostic medical X-ray imaging, from which it derives a primary reference model and describes how this information leads to gains in quality and improvements. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Real time optimization (RTO) with model predictive control (MPC)

This paper studies a simplified methodology to integrate the real time optimization (RTO) of a continuous system into the model predictive controller in the one layer strategy. The gradient of the economic objective function is included in the cost function of the controller. Optimal conditions of the process at steady state are searched through the use of a rigorous non-linear process model, while the trajectory to be followed is predicted with the use of a linear dynamic model, obtained through a plant step test. The main advantage of the proposed strategy is that the resulting control/optimization problem can still be solved with a quadratic programming routine at each sampling step. Simulation results show that the approach proposed may be comparable to the strategy that solves the full economic optimization problem inside the MPC controller where the resulting control problem becomes a non-linear programming problem with a much higher computer load. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Compliance aware business process design

Historically, business process design has been driven by business objectives, specifically process improvement. However this cannot come at the price of control objectives which stem from various legislative, standard and business partnership sources. Ensuring the compliance to regulations and industrial standards is an increasingly important issue in the design of business processes. In this paper, we advocate that control objectives should be addressed at an early stage, i.e., design time, so as to minimize the problems of runtime compliance checking and consequent violations and penalties. To this aim, we propose supporting mechanisms for business process designers. This paper specifically presents a support method which allows the process designer to quantitatively measure the compliance degree of a given process model against a set of control objectives. This will allow process designers to comparatively assess the compliance degree of their design as well as be better informed on the cost of non-compliance.

ERP 'old/new' effects: memory strength and decisional factor(s)

Event-related potentials (ERPs) were recorded while subjects made old/new recognition judgments on new unstudied words and old words which had been presented at study either once ('weak') or three times ('strong'). The probability of an 'old' response was significantly higher for strong than weak words and significantly higher for weak than new words. Comparisons were made initially between ERPs to new, weak and strong words, and subsequently between ERPs associated with six strength-by-response conditions. The N400 component was found to be modulated by memory trace strength in a graded manner. Its amplitude was most negative in new word ERPs and most positive in strong word ERPs. This 'N400 strength effect' was largest at the left parietal electrode (in ear-referenced ERPs). The amplitude of the late positive complex (LPC) effect was sensitive to decision accuracy (and perhaps confidence). Its amplitude was larger in ERPs evoked by words attracting correct versus incorrect recognition decisions. The LPC effect had a left > right, centro-parietal scalp topography (in ear-referenced ERPs). Hence, whereas, the majority of previous ERP studies of episodic recognition have interpreted results from the perspective of dual-process models, we provide alternative interpretations of N400 and LPC old/new effects in terms of memory strength and decisional factor(s). (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Model specification tests in nonparametric stochastic regression models

In this paper, we consider testing for additivity in a class of nonparametric stochastic regression models. Two test statistics are constructed and their asymptotic distributions are established. We also conduct a small sample study for one of the test statistics through a simulated example. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).

Infusing the use of seasonal climate forecasting into crop management practice in North East Australia using discussion support software

Seasonal climate forecasting offers potential for improving management of crop production risks in the cropping systems of NE Australia. But how is this capability best connected to management practice? Over the past decade, we have pursued participative systems approaches involving simulation-aided discussion with advisers and decision-makers. This has led to the development of discussion support software as a key vehicle for facilitating infusion of forecasting capability into practice. In this paper, we set out the basis of our approach, its implementation and preliminary evaluation. We outline the development of the discussion support software Whopper Cropper, which was designed for, and in close consultation with, public and private advisers. Whopper Cropper consists of a database of simulation output and a graphical user interface to generate analyses of risks associated with crop management options. The charts produced provide conversation pieces for advisers to use with their farmer clients in relation to the significant decisions they face. An example application, detail of the software development process and an initial survey of user needs are presented. We suggest that discussion support software is about moving beyond traditional notions of supply-driven decision support systems. Discussion support software is largely demand-driven and can compliment participatory action research programs by providing cost-effective general delivery of simulation-aided discussions about relevant management actions. The critical role of farm management advisers and dialogue among key players is highlighted. We argue that the discussion support concept, as exemplified by the software tool Whopper Cropper and the group processes surrounding it, provides an effective means to infuse innovations, like seasonal climate forecasting, into farming practice. Crown Copyright (C) 2002 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

A relevância do relatório de auditoria para os investidores institucionais, analistas financeiros e analistas de crédito

In the 70s, a new line of research focused on the study of the influence of the audit report on the decision process of investors, financial analysts and credit analysts. Notwithstanding the numerous studies that have been carried out, results have not been consistent. Given the above, and considering the lack, in Portugal, of a research of this nature, it seems urgent to carry out a study that allows the analysis of the use of the audit report, as well as its influence on the decision making process of Portuguese stakeholders. For that purpose, in the light of the positivist research paradigm, a questionnaire was designed, which was administered by mail and on the Survey Monkey platform to a sample of institutional investors, financial analysts and credit analysts. The statistical analysis of the data obtained was undertaken with resource to the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and SmartPLS 2.0. Corroborating the literature review and the assumptions of the Agency Theory and the Stakeholder Theory, used in the theoretical framework of analysis, empirical evidence has shown that the audit report influences the decision of institutional investors, financial analysts and credit analysts, and that the opinion expressed in that document is the most determinant factor of this influence. In addition to this factor, it was found that the degree of utilization of the audit report, as well as the value ascribed to this document, determine its influence in the decision process of research groups studied. Only in the case of institutional investors, the results did not reveal a correlation between the utility ascribed to the audit report and the influence of this document in their decision making process. In turn, the statistical inference of the model explaining the degree of use of the audit report revealed that it is conditioned by the perceived quality of the information enclosed in the audit report, the utility assigned to the audit report on the decision process, as well as the relevance of the other sources of information used by stakeholders. Therefore, this study allowed proving the importance of the audit report to its users. As a result, we believe to have filled a gap in national literature and to have contributed to the enhancement of international literature. The importance that this document has for the development of any country is, therefore, shown, and it is urgent to maintain rigor in the selection of its staff, in the development of its standards, and especially in the development of audits. Moreover, we also consider that this research may contribute to the improvement of the audit report, insofar as it will help professional bodies to understand the information needs and perceptions of stakeholders.

A hybrid approach to multi-agent decision-making

In the aftermath of a large-scale disaster, agents' decisions derive from self-interested (e.g. survival), common-good (e.g. victims' rescue) and teamwork (e.g. fire extinction) motivations. However, current decision-theoretic models are either purely individual or purely collective and find it difficult to deal with motivational attitudes; on the other hand, mental-state based models find it difficult to deal with uncertainty. We propose a hybrid, CvI-JI, approach that combines: i) collective 'versus' individual (CvI) decisions, founded on the Markov decision process (MDP) quantitative evaluation of joint-actions, and ii)joint-intentions (JI) formulation of teamwork, founded on the belief-desire-intention (BDI) architecture of general mental-state based reasoning. The CvI-JI evaluation explores the performance's improvement

Planeamento espacial marinho das áreas marinhas protegidas: o caso de estudo da ára protegida de gestão de recursos: Caloura - ilhéu de Vila Franca do Campo

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências do Mar (Ecologia Marinha), 26 de Novembro de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.