Inferencing design styles using Baysian Networks

Reasoning with uncertain knowledge and belief has long been recognized as an important research issue in Artificial Intelligence (AI). Several methodologies have been proposed in the past, including knowledge-based systems, fuzzy sets, and probability theory. The probabilistic approach became popular mainly due to a knowledge representation framework called Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks have earned reputation of being powerful tools for modeling complex problem involving uncertain knowledge. Uncertain knowledge exists in domains such as medicine, law, geographical information systems and design as it is difficult to retrieve all knowledge and experience from experts. In design domain, experts believe that design style is an intangible concept and that its knowledge is difficult to be presented in a formal way. The aim of the research is to find ways to represent design style knowledge in Bayesian net works. We showed that these networks can be used for diagnosis (inferences) and classification of design style. The furniture design style is selected as an example domain, however the method can be used for any other domain.

Using ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for improving clinical reasoning in high fidelity case-based simulation for undergraduate nursing students.

Theme Paper for Curriculum innovation and enhancement theme AIM: This paper reports on a research project that trialled an educational strategy implemented in an undergraduate nursing curriculum. The project aimed to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for improving clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND: Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting (Lasater, 2007). Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students (Banning, 2008, Lee and Ryan-Wenger, 1997). This project used the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students were assisted to uncover cognitive approaches to assist in making effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection about their practice. MEHODS: In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students undertook high fidelity simulation (some for the first time), commencing in September of 2011. There were two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= used think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= no specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks used by all students) in relation to problem solving patient needs. The think aloud strategy was described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allowed time for clarification of this strategy. All other aspects of the simulations remained the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). Ethics approval has been obtained for this project. RESULTS: Results of a qualitative analysis (in progress- will be completed by March 2012) of student and facilitator reports on students’ ability to meet the learning objectives of solving patient problems using clinical reasoning and experience with the ‘think aloud’ method will be presented. A comparison of clinical reasoning learning outcomes between the two groups will determine the effect on clinical reasoning for students responding to patient problems. CONCLUSIONS: In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs.

Reasoning about component similarity in building product models from the construction perspective

Identifying the design features that impact construction is essential to developing cost effective and constructible designs. The similarity of building components is a critical design feature that affects method selection, productivity, and ultimately construction cost and schedule performance. However, there is limited understanding of what constitutes similarity in the design of building components and limited computer-based support to identify this feature in a building product model. This paper contributes a feature-based framework for representing and reasoning about component similarity that builds on ontological modelling, model-based reasoning and cluster analysis techniques. It describes the ontology we developed to characterize component similarity in terms of the component attributes, the direction, and the degree of variation. It also describes the generic reasoning process we formalized to identify component similarity in a standard product model based on practitioners' varied preferences. The generic reasoning process evaluates the geometric, topological, and symbolic similarities between components, creates groupings of similar components, and quantifies the degree of similarity. We implemented this reasoning process in a prototype cost estimating application, which creates and maintains cost estimates based on a building product model. Validation studies of the prototype system provide evidence that the framework is general and enables a more accurate and efficient cost estimating process.

Heteroscedastic probabilistic linear discriminant analysis for manifold learning in video-based face recognition

To recognize faces in video, face appearances have been widely modeled as piece-wise local linear models which linearly approximate the smooth yet non-linear low dimensional face appearance manifolds. The choice of representations of the local models is crucial. Most of the existing methods learn each local model individually meaning that they only anticipate variations within each class. In this work, we propose to represent local models as Gaussian distributions which are learned simultaneously using the heteroscedastic probabilistic linear discriminant analysis (PLDA). Each gallery video is therefore represented as a collection of such distributions. With the PLDA, not only the within-class variations are estimated during the training, the separability between classes is also maximized leading to an improved discrimination. The heteroscedastic PLDA itself is adapted from the standard PLDA to approximate face appearance manifolds more accurately. Instead of assuming a single global within-class covariance, the heteroscedastic PLDA learns different within-class covariances specific to each local model. In the recognition phase, a probe video is matched against gallery samples through the fusion of point-to-model distances. Experiments on the Honda and MoBo datasets have shown the merit of the proposed method which achieves better performance than the state-of-the-art technique.

Coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model for multi-area ATC with risk control

In the decision-making of multi-area ATC (Available Transfer Capacity) in electricity market environment, the existing resources of transmission network should be optimally dispatched and coordinately employed on the premise that the secure system operation is maintained and risk associated is controllable. The non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the ATC probability density distribution of specified areas under the influence of several uncertainty factors, based on which, a coordinated probabilistic optimal decision-making model with the maximal risk benefit as its objective is developed for multi-area ATC. The NSGA-II is applied to calculate the ATC of each area, which considers the risk cost caused by relevant uncertainty factors and the synchronous coordination among areas. The essential characteristics of the developed model and the employed algorithm are illustrated by the example of IEEE 118-bus test system. Simulative result shows that, the risk of multi-area ATC decision-making is influenced by the uncertainties in power system operation and the relative importance degrees of different areas.

Timed Probabilistic Automaton : a bridge between Raven and Song Scope for automatic species recognition

Raven and Song Scope are two automated sound anal-ysis tools based on machine learning technique for en-vironmental monitoring. Many research works have been conducted upon them, however, no or rare explo-ration mentions about the performance and comparison between them. This paper investigates the comparisons from six aspects: theory, software interface, ease of use, detection targets, detection accuracy, and potential application. Through deep exploration one critical gap is identified that there is a lack of approach to detect both syllables and call structures, since Raven only aims to detect syllables while Song Scope targets call structures. Therefore, a Timed Probabilistic Automata (TPA) system is proposed which separates syllables first and clusters them into complex structures after.

Legal Reasoning in Environmental Law : a Study of Structure, Form and Language

This book analyses the structure, form and language of a selected number of international and national legal instruments and reviews how an illustrative range of international and national judicial institutions have responded to the issues before them and the processes of legal reasoning engaged by them in reaching their decisions. This involves a very detailed discussion of these primary sources of international and national environmental law with a view to determining their jurisprudential architecture and the processes of reasoning expected of those responsible for implementing these architectural arrangements. This book is concerned not with the effectiveness or the quality of an environmental legal system but only with its jurisprudential characteristics and their associated processes of legal reasoning.

Manifestations of preoperational reasoning on similar programming tasks

In this research paper, we study a simple programming problem that only requires knowledge of variables and assignment statements, and yet we found that some early novice programmers had difficulty solving the problem. We also present data from think aloud studies which demonstrate the nature of those difficulties. We interpret our data within a neo-Piagetian framework which describes cognitive developmental stages through which students pass as they learn to program. We describe in detail think aloud sessions with novices who reason at the neo-Piagetian preoperational level. Those students exhibit two problems. First, they focus on very small parts of the code and lose sight of the "big picture". Second, they are prone to focus on superficial aspects of the task that are not functionally central to the solution. It is not until the transition into the concrete operational stage that decentration of focus occurs, and they have the cognitive ability to reason about abstract quantities that are conserved, and are equipped to adapt skills to closely related tasks. Our results, and the neo-Piagetian framework on which they are based, suggest that changes are necessary in teaching practice to better support novices who have not reached the concrete operational stage.

Resilient Navigation through Probabilistic Modality Reconfiguration

This paper proposes an approach to achieve resilient navigation for indoor mobile robots. Resilient navigation seeks to mitigate the impact of control, localisation, or map errors on the safety of the platform while enforcing the robot’s ability to achieve its goal. We show that resilience to unpredictable errors can be achieved by combining the benefits of independent and complementary algorithmic approaches to navigation, or modalities, each tuned to a particular type of environment or situation. In this paper, the modalities comprise a path planning method and a reactive motion strategy. While the robot navigates, a Hidden Markov Model continually estimates the most appropriate modality based on two types of information: context (information known a priori) and monitoring (evaluating unpredictable aspects of the current situation). The robot then uses the recommended modality, switching between one and another dynamically. Experimental validation with a SegwayRMP- based platform in an office environment shows that our approach enables failure mitigation while maintaining the safety of the platform. The robot is shown to reach its goal in the presence of: 1) unpredicted control errors, 2) unexpected map errors and 3) a large injected localisation fault.

A probabilistic framework to monitor a multi-mode outdoor robot

This paper presents an approach to autonomously monitor the behavior of a robot endowed with several navigation and locomotion modes, adapted to the terrain to traverse. The mode selection process is done in two steps: the best suited mode is firstly selected on the basis of initial information or a qualitative map built on-line by the robot. Then, the motions of the robot are monitored by various processes that update mode transition probabilities in a Markov system. The paper focuses on this latter selection process: the overall approach is depicted, and preliminary experimental results are presented

Towards training-free appearance-based localization : probabilistic models for whole-image descriptors

Whole image descriptors have recently been shown to be remarkably robust to perceptual change especially compared to local features. However, whole-image-based localization systems typically rely on heuristic methods for determining appropriate matching thresholds in a particular environment. These environment-specific tuning requirements and the lack of a meaningful interpretation of these arbitrary thresholds limits the general applicability of these systems. In this paper we present a Bayesian model of probability for whole-image descriptors that can be seamlessly integrated into localization systems designed for probabilistic visual input. We demonstrate this method using CAT-Graph, an appearance-based visual localization system originally designed for a FAB-MAP-style probabilistic input. We show that using whole-image descriptors as visual input extends CAT-Graph’s functionality to environments that experience a greater amount of perceptual change. We also present a method of estimating whole-image probability models in an online manner, removing the need for a prior training phase. We show that this online, automated training method can perform comparably to pre-trained, manually tuned local descriptor methods.

Promoting Statistical Literacy Through Data Modelling in the Early School Years

This chapter addresses data modelling as a means of promoting statistical literacy in the early grades. Consideration is first given to the importance of increasing young children’s exposure to statistical reasoning experiences and how data modelling can be a rich means of doing so. Selected components of data modelling are then reviewed, followed by a report on some findings from the third-year of a three-year longitudinal study across grades one through three.

Computational aspects of probabilistic assessment of UAS robust autonomy

As the level of autonomy in Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) increases, there is an imperative need for developing methods to assess robust autonomy. This paper focuses on the computations that lead to a set of measures of robust autonomy. These measures are the probabilities that selected performance indices related to the mission requirements and airframe capabilities remain within regions of acceptable performance.