793 resultados para Probabilistic Aggregation Criteria
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Pulmonary hypertension is associated with various alterations in 5-hydroxytryptamine (5-HT) physiology. In this study in platelets from hypoxic pulmonary hypertensive rats (10% O-2; 1 week) and normoxic rats (room air), (i) initial rates of specific [H-3]5-HT uptake were measured and (ii) potentiation of collagen- and ADP-induced aggregation by 5-HT was quantified. The platelet count was almost halved in hypoxic rats. In uptake experiments, there was a decrease in 5-HT uptake in platelets from hypoxic compared with normoxic rats, due to a 36% reduction in the maximal initial rate of uptake. The aggregation experiments showed that 5-HT (1-100 muM) increased the magnitude of responses to collagen and the duration of responses to ADP, but there was no difference between hypoxic and normoxic rats. Abnormalities in platelet function may conceivably lead to increases in plasma 5-HT levels in hypoxic pulmonary hypertension, but are unlikely to aggravate pulmonary thromboembolism. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.
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We generate a pair of entangled beams from the interference of two amplitude squeezed beams. The entanglement is quantified in terms of EPR paradox and inseparability criteria, with both results clearly beating the standard quantum limit. We experimentally analyze the effect of decoherence on each criterion and demonstrate qualitative differences. We also characterize the number of required and excess photons present in the entangled beams and provide contour plots of the efficacy of quantum information protocols in terms of these variables.
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Information systems are a foundation key element of modern organizations. Quite often, chief executive officers and managers have to decide about the acquisition of new software solution based in an appropriated set of criteria. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is one technique used to support that kind of decisions. This paper proposes the application of AHP method to the selection of ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning) systems, identifying the set of criteria to be used. A set of criteria was retrieved from the scientific literature and validated through a survey-based approach.
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This work reports on the effect of carbon nanotube aggregation on the electrical conductivity and other network properties of polymer/carbon nanotube composites by modeling the carbon nanotubes as hard-core cylinders. It is shown that the conductivity decreases for increasing filler aggregation, and that this effect is more significant for higher cylinder volume fractions. It is also demonstrated, for volume fractions at which the giant component is present, that increasing the fraction of cylinders within clusters leads to a break of the giant component and the formation of a set of finite clusters. The decrease of the giant component with the increase of the fraction of cylinders within the cluster can be related to a decrease of the spanning probability due to a decrease of the number of cylinders between the clusters. Finally, it is demonstrated that the effect of aggregation can be understood by employing the network theory.
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In the last decades considerations about equipments' availability became an important issue, as well as its dependence on components characteristics such as reliability and maintainability. This is particularly of outstanding importance if one is dealing with high risk industrial equipments, where these factors play an important and fundamental role in risk management when safety or huge economic values are in discussion. As availability is a function of reliability, maintainability, and maintenance support activities, the main goal is to improve one or more of these factors. This paper intends to show how maintainability can influence availability and present a methodology to select the most important attributes for maintainability using a partial Multi Criteria Decision Making (pMCDM). Improvements in maintainability can be analyzed assuming it as a probability related with a restore probability density function [g(t)].
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Reclaimed water from small wastewater treatment facilities in the rural areas of the Beira Interior region (Portugal) may constitute an alternative water source for aquifer recharge. A 21-month monitoring period in a constructed wetland treatment system has shown that 21,500 m(3) year(-1) of treated wastewater (reclaimed water) could be used for aquifer recharge. A GIS-based multi-criteria analysis was performed, combining ten thematic maps and economic, environmental and technical criteria, in order to produce a suitability map for the location of sites for reclaimed water infiltration. The areas chosen for aquifer recharge with infiltration basins are mainly composed of anthrosol with more than 1 m deep and fine sand texture, which allows an average infiltration velocity of up to 1 m d(-1). These characteristics will provide a final polishing treatment of the reclaimed water after infiltration (soil aquifer treatment (SAT)), suitable for the removal of the residual load (trace organics, nutrients, heavy metals and pathogens). The risk of groundwater contamination is low since the water table in the anthrosol areas ranges from 10 m to 50 m. Oil the other hand, these depths allow a guaranteed unsaturated area suitable for SAT. An area of 13,944 ha was selected for study, but only 1607 ha are suitable for reclaimed water infiltration. Approximately 1280 m(2) were considered enough to set up 4 infiltration basins to work in flooding and drying cycles.
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Mestrado em Tecnologia de Diagnóstico e Intervenção. Área de especialização: Ultrassonografia Cardiovascular.
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OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the potential advantages and limitations of the use of the Brazilian hospital admission authorization forms database and the probabilistic record linkage methodology for the validation of reported utilization of hospital care services in household surveys. METHODS: A total of 2,288 households interviews were conducted in the county of Duque de Caxias, Brazil. Information on the occurrence of at least one hospital admission in the year preceding the interview was obtained from a total of 10,733 household members. The 130 records of household members who reported at least one hospital admission in a public hospital were linked to a hospital database with 801,587 records, using an automatic probabilistic approach combined with an extensive clerical review. RESULTS: Seventy-four (57%) of the 130 household members were identified in the hospital database. Yet only 60 subjects (46%) showed a record of hospitalization in the hospital database in the study period. Hospital admissions due to a surgery procedure were significantly more likely to have been identified in the hospital database. The low level of concordance seen in the study can be explained by the following factors: errors in the linkage process; a telescoping effect; and an incomplete record in the hospital database. CONCLUSIONS: The use of hospital administrative databases and probabilistic linkage methodology may represent a methodological alternative for the validation of reported utilization of health care services, but some strategies should be employed in order to minimize the problems related to the use of this methodology in non-ideal conditions. Ideally, a single identifier, such as a personal health insurance number, and the universal coverage of the database would be desirable.
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Effective legislation and standards for the coordination procedures between consumers, producers and the system operator supports the advances in the technologies that lead to smart distribution systems. In short-term (ST) maintenance scheduling procedure, the energy producers in a distribution system access to the long-term (LT) outage plan that is released by the distribution system operator (DSO). The impact of this additional information on the decision-making procedure of producers in ST maintenance scheduling is studied in this paper. The final ST maintenance plan requires the approval of the DSO that has the responsibility to secure the network reliability and quality, and other players have to follow the finalized schedule. Maintenance scheduling in the producers’ layer and the coordination procedure between them and the DSO is modelled in this paper. The proposed method is applied to a 33-bus distribution system.
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The effect of cultivation parameters such as temperature incubation, IPTG induction and ethanol shock on the production of Pseudomonasaeruginosa amidase (E.C.3.5.1.4) in a recombinant Escherichia coli strain in LB ampicillin culture medium was investigated. The highest yield of solubleamidase, relatively to other proteins, was obtained in the condition at 37 degrees C using 0.40 mM IPTG to induce growth, with ethanol. Our results demonstrate the formation of insoluble aggregates containing amidase, which was biologically active, in all tested growth conditions. Addition of ethanol at 25 degrees C in the culture medium improved amidase yield, which quantitatively aggregated in a biologically active form and exhibited in all conditions an increased specific activity relatively to the soluble form of the enzyme. Non-denaturing solubilization of the aggregated amidase was successfully achieved using L-arginine. The aggregates obtained from conditions at 37 degrees C by Furier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) analysis demonstrated a lower content of intermolecular interactions, which facilitated the solubilization step applying non-denaturing conditions. The higher interactions exhibited in aggregates obtained at suboptimal conditions compromised the solubilization yield. This work provides an approach for the characterization and solubilization of novel reported biologically active aggregates of this amidase.
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The paper proposes a methodology to increase the probability of delivering power to any load point by identifying new investments in distribution energy systems. The proposed methodology is based on statistical failure and repair data of distribution components and it uses a fuzzy-probabilistic modeling for the components outage parameters. The fuzzy membership functions of the outage parameters of each component are based on statistical records. A mixed integer nonlinear programming optimization model is developed in order to identify the adequate investments in distribution energy system components which allow increasing the probability of delivering power to any customer in the distribution system at the minimum possible cost for the system operator. To illustrate the application of the proposed methodology, the paper includes a case study that considers a 180 bus distribution network.
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Distributed generation unlike centralized electrical generation aims to generate electrical energy on small scale as near as possible to load centers, interchanging electric power with the network. This work presents a probabilistic methodology conceived to assist the electric system planning engineers in the selection of the distributed generation location, taking into account the hourly load changes or the daily load cycle. The hourly load centers, for each of the different hourly load scenarios, are calculated deterministically. These location points, properly weighted according to their load magnitude, are used to calculate the best fit probability distribution. This distribution is used to determine the maximum likelihood perimeter of the area where each source distributed generation point should preferably be located by the planning engineers. This takes into account, for example, the availability and the cost of the land lots, which are factors of special relevance in urban areas, as well as several obstacles important for the final selection of the candidates of the distributed generation points. The proposed methodology has been applied to a real case, assuming three different bivariate probability distributions: the Gaussian distribution, a bivariate version of Freund’s exponential distribution and the Weibull probability distribution. The methodology algorithm has been programmed in MATLAB. Results are presented and discussed for the application of the methodology to a realistic case and demonstrate the ability of the proposed methodology for efficiently handling the determination of the best location of the distributed generation and their corresponding distribution networks.