Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

Return periods of losses associated with European windstorm series in a changing climate

Possible future changes of clustering and return periods (RPs) of European storm series with high potential losses are quantified. Historical storm series are identified using 40 winters of reanalysis. Time series of top events (1, 2 or 5 year return levels (RLs)) are used to assess RPs of storm series both empirically and theoretically. Additionally, 800 winters of general circulation model simulations for present (1960–2000) and future (2060–2100) climate conditions are investigated. Clustering is identified for most countries, and estimated RPs are similar for reanalysis and present day simulations. Future changes of RPs are estimated for fixed RLs and fixed loss index thresholds. For the former, shorter RPs are found for Western Europe, but changes are small and spatially heterogeneous. For the latter, which combines the effects of clustering and event ranking shifts, shorter RPs are found everywhere except for Mediterranean countries. These changes are generally not statistically significant between recent and future climate. However, the RPs for the fixed loss index approach are mostly beyond the range of pre-industrial natural climate variability. This is not true for fixed RLs. The quantification of losses associated with storm series permits a more adequate windstorm risk assessment in a changing climate.

Moderate stake variations for risk and uncertainty, gains and losses: methodological implications for comparative studies

Risk attitudes are known to be sensitive to large stake variations. However, little is known on the sensitivity to moderate variations in stakes. This is important for studies that want to compare risk attitudes between countries or over time. I find that variations of ±20% affect only utility, while larger variations may affect also probability weighting. Surprisingly, the effect on weighting functions is larger for losses than for gains. It is also more pronounced for risk than for uncertainty.

I owe you: age-related similarities and differences in associative memory for gains and losses

Older adults often experience associative memory impairments but can sometimes remember important information. The current experiments investigate potential age-related similarities and differences associate memory for gains and losses. Younger and older participants were presented with faces and associated dollar amounts, which indicated how much money the person “owed” the participant, and were later given a cued recall test for the dollar amount. Experiment 1 examined face-dollar amount pairs while Experiment 2 included negative dollar amounts to examine both gains and losses. While younger adults recalled more information relative to older adults, both groups were more accurate in recalling the correct value associated with high value faces compared to lower value faces and remembered gist-information about the values. However, negative values (losses) did not have a strong impact on recall among older adults versus younger adults, illustrating important associative memory differences between younger and older adults.

Mapping the cytoskeletal prestress

Park CY, Tambe D, Alencar AM, Trepat X, Zhou EH, Millet E, Butler JP, Fredberg JJ. Mapping the cytoskeletal prestress. Am J Physiol Cell Physiol 298: C1245-C1252, 2010. First published February 17, 2010; doi: 10.1152/ajpcell.00417.2009.-Cell mechanical properties on a whole cell basis have been widely studied, whereas local intracellular variations have been less well characterized and are poorly understood. To fill this gap, here we provide detailed intracellular maps of regional cytoskeleton (CSK) stiffness, loss tangent, and rate of structural rearrangements, as well as their relationships to the underlying regional F-actin density and the local cytoskeletal prestress. In the human airway smooth muscle cell, we used micropatterning to minimize geometric variation. We measured the local cell stiffness and loss tangent with optical magnetic twisting cytometry and the local rate of CSK remodeling with spontaneous displacements of a CSK-bound bead. We also measured traction distributions with traction microscopy and cell geometry with atomic force microscopy. On the basis of these experimental observations, we used finite element methods to map for the first time the regional distribution of intracellular prestress. Compared with the cell center or edges, cell corners were systematically stiffer and more fluidlike and supported higher traction forces, and at the same time had slower remodeling dynamics. Local remodeling dynamics had a close inverse relationship with local cell stiffness. The principal finding, however, is that systematic regional variations of CSK stiffness correlated only poorly with regional F-actin density but strongly and linearly with the regional prestress. Taken together, these findings in the intact cell comprise the most comprehensive characterization to date of regional variations of cytoskeletal mechanical properties and their determinants.

Estimating losses in an entanglement concentration scheme using the phenomenological operator approach to dissipation in cavity quantum electrodynamics

In a previous paper, we developed a phenomenological-operator technique aiming to simplify the estimate of losses due to dissipation in cavity quantum electrodynamics. In this paper, we apply that technique to estimate losses during an entanglement concentration process in the context of dissipative cavities. In addition, some results, previously used without proof to justify our phenomenological-operator approach, are now formally derived, including an equivalent way to formulate the Wigner-Weisskopf approximation.

Heat losses and thermal performance of commercial combined solar and pellet heating systems

Various pellet heating systems are marketed in Sweden, some of them in combination with a solar heating system. Several types of pellet heating units are available and can be used for a combined system. This article compares four typical combined solar and pellet heating systems: System 1 and 2 two with a pellet stove, system 3 with a store integrated pellet burner and system 4 with a pellet boiler. The lower efficiency of pellet heaters compared to oil or gas heaters increases the primary energy demand. Consequently heat losses of the various systems have been studied. The systems have been modeled in TRNSYS and simulated with parameters identified from measurements. For almost all systems the flue gas losses are the main heat losses except for system 3 where store heat losses prevail. Relevant are also the heat losses of the burner and the boiler to the ambient. Significant leakage losses are noticed for system 3 and 4. For buildings with an open internal design system 1 is the most efficient solution. Other buildings should preferably apply system 3. The right choice of the system depends also on whether the heater is placed inside or outside of the heated are. A large potential for system optimization exist for all studied systems, which when applied could alter the relative merits of the different system types.

COMPARISON OF PARTIAL SHADING LOSSES IN FREE FIELD PV-PLANTS WITH DIFFERENT ARRAY CONFIGURATIONS

A common problem when planning large free field PV-plants is optimizing the ground occupation ratio while maintaining low shading losses. Due to the complexity of this task, several PV-plants have been built using various configurations. In order to compare the shading losses of different PV technologies and array designs, empirical performance data of five free field PV-plants operating in Germany was analyzed. The data collected comprised 140 winter days from October 2011 until March 2012. The relative shading losses were estimated by comparing the energy output of selected arrays in the front rows (shading-free) against that of shaded arrays in the back rows of the same plant. The results showed that landscape mounting with mc-Si PV-modules yielded significantly better results than portrait one. With CIGS modules, making cross-table strings using the lower modules was not beneficial as expected and had more losses than a one-string-per-table layout. Parallel substrings with CdTe showed relatively low losses. Among the two CdTe products analyzed, none showed a significantly better performance.

Thermal losses in sealed, gas-filled flat plate solar collectors

A sealed space between absorber and cover glass makes it possible reducing the influence of humidity condensate and dust at the same time as the enclosed space can be filled with a suitable gas for lowering the losses. This paper is about the size of the losses in these collectors. A calculating model of a gas-filled flat plate solar collector was built in Matlab with standard heat transfer formulas. It showed that the total loss can be reduced up to 20% when changing to an inert gas. It is also possible using a much shorter distance and still achieve low losses at the same time as the mechanical stresses in the material is reduce.

Distribution Of Hydrological Losses For Varying Rainfall And Antecedent Wetness Conditions

Hydrological loss is a vital component in many hydrological models, which are usedin forecasting floods and evaluating water resources for both surface and subsurface flows. Due to the complex and random nature of the rainfall runoff process, hydrological losses are not yet fully understood. Consequently, practitioners often use representative values of the losses for design applications such as rainfall-runoff modelling which has led to inaccurate quantification of water quantities in the resulting applications. The existing hydrological loss models must be revisited and modellers should be encouraged to utilise other available data sets. This study is based on three unregulated catchments situated in Mt. Lofty Ranges of South Australia (SA). The paper focuses on conceptual models for: initial loss (IL), continuing loss (CL) and proportional loss (PL) with rainfall characteristics (total rainfall (TR) and storm duration (D)), and antecedent wetness (AW) conditions. The paper introduces two methods that can be implemented to estimate IL as a function of TR, D and AW. The IL distribution patterns and parameters for the study catchments are determined using multivariate analysis and descriptive statistics. The possibility of generalising the methods and the limitations of this are also discussed. This study will yield improvements to existing loss models and will encourage practitioners to utilise multiple data sets to estimate losses, instead of using hypothetical or representative values to generalise real situations.

Some losses brought out by the WTO agreement for TRIPs

The WTO established two rules concerning the international protection of the TRIPs - trade related intellectual property rights, which includes patents and copyrights. One of these rules is the non-discrimination, which has shown to be efficiency-enhancing in the context of trade tariff reductions. The other is the national-treatment commitment rule. We develop in this paper a simple framework to show that the extended version of this rule - which is nowadays being imposed to members - brings out a loss of economic efficiency and a reduction in the levels of protection of intellectual property rights worldwide. As a consequence, it tends to reduce the investments on Research and Development throughout the world. This exactly contradicts the objectives of the Agreement.

Spatial analysis of the distribution of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and losses in maize crop productivity using geostatistics

A lagarta-do-cartucho, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), é uma das principais pragas do milho nas Américas. O estudo de sua distribuição espacial é fundamental para a utilização de estratégias de controle, otimização de técnicas de amostragens, determinação de danos econômicos e incorporação de um programa de agricultura de precisão. em uma área cultivada com milho foram realizadas amostragens com intervalo semanal, correspondendo ao estádio vegetativo que compreende desde a germinação até o pendoamento. Foram amostradas 10 plantas ao acaso por parcela, no total de 2000 plantas em cada amostragem. A produtividade foi obtida através da colheita de todas as parcelas que eram pesadas separadamente no campo e em cada parcela foram coletadas 15 espigas aleatoriamente para estimar o comprimento e o diâmetro médio. As análises espaciais, utilizando geoestatística, mostraram que o modelo esférico apresentou o melhor ajuste às lagartas pequenas. À medida que as lagartas foram se desenvolvendo sua distribuição foi tornando aleatória, representada por um modelo ajustado por uma reta, não tendo sido detectado nenhum tipo de dependência espacial nos pontos de amostragem. A produtividade e o diâmetro e comprimento da espiga foram descritos por modelos esféricos, indicando uma variabilidade espacial nos parâmetros de produtividade na área cultivada. A geoestatística mostrou-se promissora para a aplicação de métodos precisos no controle integrado de pragas.

Short-term temporal changes of soil carbon losses after tillage described by a first-order decay model

Tillage stimulates soil carbon (C) losses by increasing aeration, changing temperature and moisture conditions, and thus favoring microbial decomposition. In addition, soil aggregate disruption by tillage exposes once protected organic matter to decomposition. We propose a model to explain carbon dioxide (CO2) emission after tillage as a function of the no-till emission plus a correction due to the tillage disturbance. The model assumes that C in the readily decomposable organic matter follows a first-order reaction kinetics equation as: dC(sail)(t)/dt = -kC(soil)(t) and that soil C-CO2 emission is proportional to the C decay rate in soil, where C-soil(t) is the available labile soil C (g m(-2)) at any time (t). Emissions are modeled in terms soil C available to decomposition in the tilled and non-tilled plots, and a relationship is derived between no-till (F-NT) and tilled (F-Gamma) fluxes, which is: F-T = a1F(NT)e(-a2t), where t is time after tillage. Predicted and observed fluxes showed good agreement based on determination coefficient (R-2), index of agreement and model efficiency, with R-2 as high as 0.97. The two parameters included in the model are related to the difference between the decay constant (k factor) of tilled and no-till plots (a(2)) and also to the amount of labile carbon added to the readily decomposable soil organic matter due to tillage (a,). These two parameters were estimated in the model ranging from 1.27 and 2.60 (a(1)) and - 1.52 x 10(-2) and 2.2 x 10(-2) day(-1) (a(2)). The advantage is that temporal variability of tillage-induced emissions can be described by only one analytical function that includes the no-till emission plus an exponential term modulated by tillage and environmentally dependent parameters. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Soil, water and nutrient losses by interrill erosion from green cane cultivation

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)