Negative and positive predictive values of nerve monitoring in thyroidectomy

Background Recurrent nerve injury is 1 of the most important complications of thyroidectomy. During the last decade, nerve monitoring has gained increasing acceptance in several centers as a method to predict and to document nerve function at the end of the operation. We evaluated the efficacy of a nerve monitoring system in a series of patients who underwent thyroidectomy and critically analyzed the negative predictive value (NPV) and positive predictive value (PPV) of the method. Methods. NIM System efficacy was prospectively analyzed in 447 patients who underwent thyroidectomy between 2001 and 2008 (366 female/81 male; 420 white/47 nonwhite; 11 to 82 years of age; median, 43 years old). There were 421 total thyroidectomies and 26 partial thyroidectomies, leading to 868 nerves at risk. The gold standard to evaluate inferior laryngeal nerve function was early postoperative videolaryngoscopy, which was repeated after 4 to 6 months in all patients with abnormal endoscopic findings. Results. At the early evaluation, 858 nerves (98.8%) presented normal videolaryngoscopic features after surgery. Ten paretic/paralyzed nerves (1.2%) were detected (2 unexpected unilateral paresis, 2 unexpected bilateral paresis, 1 unexpected unilateral paralysis, 1 unexpected bilateral paralyses, and 1 expected unilateral paralysis). At the late videolaryngoscopy, only 2 permanent nerve paralyses were noted (0.2%), with an ultimate result of 99.8% functioning nerves. Nerve monitoring showed absent or markedly reduced electrical activity at the end of the operations in 25/868 nerves (2.9%), including all 10 endoscopically compromised nerves, with 15 false-positive results. There were no false-negative results. Therefore, the PPV was 40.0%, and the NPV was 100%. Conclusions. In the present series, nerve monitoring had a very high PPV but a low NPV for the detection of recurrent nerve injury. (C) 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 34: 175-179, 2012

What is the diagnostic value of ultrasonography compared to physical evaluation in patients with idiopathic carpal tunnel syndrome?

[EN] OBJECTIVE: Our hypothesis is that sonography performed by the rheumatologist in patients with suspected carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) has higher diagnostic value compared to physical evaluation. METHODS: Adult patients with suspected idiopathic CTS, defined by sensory symptoms over the distribution of the median nerve with or without positive results with the Phalen and/or the Tinel's maneuvers were included. The diagnosis of CTS was indicated by typical symptoms daily for at least 3 months and a positive nerve conduction study. One rheumatologist unaware of the clinical and electrodiagnostic results performed an ultrasound examination of the median nerve for the area ranging from the inlet to the outlet of the carpal tunnel. Mean cross-sectional area at each level, flattening ratio and bowing of flexor retinaculum were obtained. RESULTS: Sixty-eight patients with 105 affected wrists were examined. Tinel's and Phalen's signs had a closer sensitivity (73% and 67% respectively) and specificity (40% and 30% respectively). The best swelling nerve cut-off by sonography was 9.7 mm2 at the tunnel inlet, with a sensitivity of 86%, a specificity of 48% and accuracy of 77%. A 100% positive predictive value was reached with a cross-sectional area of 13 mm2, involving 33 hands (31% of the whole sample). Maximal cross sectional area and the measurement of flexor retinaculum had an accuracy of 72% and 73% respectively. Combination of physical maneuvers and sonography not yielded more accuracy than cross-sectional area itself. CONCLUSION: In patients with clinical history of idiopathic CTS and positive nerve conduction study, sonography performed by the rheumatologist has higher diagnostic value than physical maneuvers.

Value of the SYNTAX score for risk assessment in the all-comers population of the randomized multicenter LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to assess the predictive value of the SYNTAX score (SXscore) for major adverse cardiac events in the all-comers population of the LEADERS (Limus Eluted from A Durable versus ERodable Stent coating) trial. BACKGROUND: The SXscore has been shown to be an effective predictor of clinical outcomes in patients with multivessel disease undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. METHODS: The SXscore was prospectively collected in 1,397 of the 1,707 patients enrolled in the LEADERS trial (patients after surgical revascularization were excluded). Post hoc analysis was performed by stratifying clinical outcomes at 1-year follow-up, according to 1 of 3 SXscore tertiles. RESULTS: The 1,397 patients were divided into tertiles based on the SXscore in the following fashion: SXscore8 and 16 (SXhigh) (n=461). At 1-year follow-up, there was a significantly lower number of patients with major cardiac event-free survival in the highest tertile of SXscore (SXlow=92.2%, SXmid=91.1%, and SXhigh=84.6%; p<0.001). Death occurred in 1.5% of SXlow patients, 2.1% of SXmid patients, and 5.6% of SXhigh patients (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.97, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29 to 3.01; p=0.002). The myocardial infarction rate tended to be higher in the SXhigh group. Target vessel revascularization was 11.3% in the SXhigh group compared with 6.3% and 7.8% in the SXlow and SXmid groups, respectively (HR: 1.38, 95% CI: 1.1 to 1.75; p=0.006). Composite of cardiac death, myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target vessel revascularization was 7.8%, 8.9%, and 15.4% in the SXlow, SXmid, and SXhigh groups, respectively (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.19 to 1.81; p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SXscore, when applied to an all-comers patient population treated with drug-eluting stents, may allow prospective risk stratification of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention. (LEADERS Trial Limus Eluted From A Durable Versus ERodable Stent Coating; NCT00389220).

Incidence, predictive factors, and prognosis of chondrosarcoma in patients with Ollier disease and Maffucci syndrome: an international multicenter study of 161 patients

Enchondromatosis is characterized by the presence of multiple benign cartilage lesions in bone. While Ollier disease is typified by multiple enchondromas, in Maffucci syndrome these are associated with hemangiomas. Studies evaluating the predictive value of clinical symptoms for development of secondary chondrosarcoma and prognosis are lacking. This multi-institute study evaluates the clinical characteristics of patients, to get better insight on behavior and prognosis of these diseases.

Bivariate meta-analysis of predictive values of diagnostic tests can be an alternative to bivariate meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity

Meta-analysis of predictive values is usually discouraged because these values are directly affected by disease prevalence, but sensitivity and specificity sometimes show substantial heterogeneity as well. We propose a bivariate random-effects logitnormal model for the meta-analysis of the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) of diagnostic tests.

Prognostic value of the modified American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association lesion morphology classification for clinical outcome after sirolimus-eluting stent placement (results of the prospective multicenter German Cypher Registry)

The modified American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) lesion morphology classification scheme has prognostic impact for early and late outcomes when bare-metal stents are used. Its value after drug-eluting stent placement is unknown. The predictive value of this lesion morphology classification system in patients treated using sirolimus-eluting stents included in the German Cypher Registry was prospectively examined. The study population included 6,755 patients treated for 7,960 lesions using sirolimus-eluting stents. Lesions were classified as type A, B1, B2, or C. Lesion type A or B1 was considered simple (35.1%), and type B2 or C, complex (64.9%). The combined end point of all deaths, myocardial infarction, or target vessel revascularization was seen in 2.6% versus 2.4% in the complex and simple groups, respectively (p = 0.62) at initial hospital discharge, with a trend for higher rates of myocardial infarction in the complex group. At the 6-month clinical follow-up and after adjusting for other independent factors, the composite of cumulative death, myocardial infarction, and target vessel revascularization was nonsignificantly different between groups (11.4% vs 11.2% in the complex and simple groups, respectively; odds ratio 1.08, 95% confidence interval 0.8 to 1.46). This was also true for target vessel revascularization alone (8.3% of the complex group, 9.0% of the simple group; odds ratio 0.87, 95% confidence interval 0.72 to 1.05). In conclusion, the modified ACC/AHA lesion morphology classification system has some value in determining early complications after sirolimus-eluting stent implantation. Clinical follow-up results at 6 months were generally favorable and cannot be adequately differentiated on the basis of this lesion morphology classification scheme.

Prognostic and diagnostic value of EEG signal coupling measures in coma.

OBJECTIVE Our aim was to assess the diagnostic and predictive value of several quantitative EEG (qEEG) analysis methods in comatose patients. METHODS In 79 patients, coupling between EEG signals on the left-right (inter-hemispheric) axis and on the anterior-posterior (intra-hemispheric) axis was measured with four synchronization measures: relative delta power asymmetry, cross-correlation, symbolic mutual information and transfer entropy directionality. Results were compared with etiology of coma and clinical outcome. Using cross-validation, the predictive value of measure combinations was assessed with a Bayes classifier with mixture of Gaussians. RESULTS Five of eight measures showed a statistically significant difference between patients grouped according to outcome; one measure revealed differences in patients grouped according to the etiology. Interestingly, a high level of synchrony between the left and right hemisphere was associated with mortality on intensive care unit, whereas higher synchrony between anterior and posterior brain regions was associated with survival. The combination with the best predictive value reached an area-under the curve of 0.875 (for patients with post anoxic encephalopathy: 0.946). CONCLUSIONS EEG synchronization measures can contribute to clinical assessment, and provide new approaches for understanding the pathophysiology of coma. SIGNIFICANCE Prognostication in coma remains a challenging task. qEEG could improve current multi-modal approaches.

The diagnostic value of a 12-lead electrocardiogram in patients with cardiac tamponade due to a malignant pericardial effusion

Background. Cardiac tamponade can occur when a large amount of fluid, gas, singly or in combination, accumulating within the pericardium, compresses the heart causing circulatory compromise. Although previous investigators have found the 12-lead ECG to have a poor predictive value in diagnosing cardiac tamponade, very few studies have evaluated it as a follow up tool for ruling in or ruling out tamponade in patients with previously diagnosed malignant pericardial effusions. ^ Methods. 127 patients with malignant pericardial effusions at the MD Anderson Cancer Center were included in this retrospective study. While 83 of these patients had a cardiac tamponade diagnosed by echocardiographic criteria (Gold standard), 44 did not. We computed the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive (PPV) and negative predictive values (NPV) for individual and combinations of ECG abnormalities. Individual ECG abnormalities were also entered singly into a univariate logistic regression model to predict tamponade. ^ Results. For patients with effusions of all sizes, electrical alternans had a Se, Sp, PPV and NPV of 22.61%, 97.61%, 95% and 39.25% respectively. These parameters for low voltage complexes were 55.95%, 74.44%, 81.03%, 46.37% respectively. The presence of all three ECG abnormalities had a Se = 8.33%, Sp = 100%, PPV = 100% and NPV = 35.83% while the presence of at least one of the three ECG abnormalities had a Se = 89.28%, Sp = 46.51%, PPV = 76.53%, NPV = 68.96%. For patients with effusions of all sizes electrical alternans had an OR of 12.28 (1.58–95.17, p = 0.016), while the presence of at least one ECG abnormality had an OR of 7.25 (2.9–18.1, p = 0.000) in predicting tamponade. ^ Conclusions. Although individual ECG abnormalities had low sensitivities, specificities, NPVs and PPVs with the exception of electrical alternans, the presence of at least one of the three ECG abnormalities had a high sensitivity in diagnosing cardiac tamponade. This could point to its potential use as a screening test with a correspondingly high NPV to rule out a diagnosis of tamponade in patients with malignant pericardial effusions. This could save expensive echocardiographic assessments in patients with previously diagnosed pericardial effusions. ^

The prognostic value of a nomogram for exercise capacity in women

BACKGROUND: Recent studies have demonstrated that exercise capacity is an independent predictor of mortality in women. Normative values of exercise capacity for age in women have not been well established. Our objectives were to construct a nomogram to permit determination of predicted exercise capacity for age in women and to assess the predictive value of the nomogram with respect to survival. METHODS: A total of 5721 asymptomatic women underwent a symptom-limited, maximal stress test. Exercise capacity was measured in metabolic equivalents (MET). Linear regression was used to estimate the mean MET achieved for age. A nomogram was established to allow the percentage of predicted exercise capacity to be estimated on the basis of age and the exercise capacity achieved. The nomogram was then used to determine the percentage of predicted exercise capacity for both the original cohort and a referral population of 4471 women with cardiovascular symptoms who underwent a symptom-limited stress test. Survival data were obtained for both cohorts, and Cox survival analysis was used to estimate the rates of death from any cause and from cardiac causes in each group. RESULTS: The linear regression equation for predicted exercise capacity (in MET) on the basis of age in the cohort of asymptomatic women was as follows: predicted MET = 14.7 - (0.13 x age). The risk of death among asymptomatic women whose exercise capacity was less than 85 percent of the predicted value for age was twice that among women whose exercise capacity was at least 85 percent of the age-predicted value (P<0.001). Results were similar in the cohort of symptomatic women. CONCLUSIONS: We have established a nomogram for predicted exercise capacity on the basis of age that is predictive of survival among both asymptomatic and symptomatic women. These findings could be incorporated into the interpretation of exercise stress tests, providing additional prognostic information for risk stratification.

Challenging the predictive ability of accounting techniques in modelling organizational futures

This article considers the role of accounting in organisational decision making. It challenges the rational nature of decisions made in organisations through the use of accounting models and the problems of predicting the future through the use of such models. The use of accounting in this manner is evaluated from an epochal postmodern stance. Issues raised by chaos theory and the uncertainty principle are used to demonstrate problems with the predictive ability of accounting models. The authors argue that any consideration of the predictive value of accounting needs to change to incorporate a recognition of the turbulent external environment, if it is to be of use for organisational decision making. Thus it is argued that the role of accounting as a mechanism for knowledge creation regarding the future is fundamentally flawed. We take this as a starting-point to argue for the real purpose of the use of the predictive techniques of accounting, using its ritualistic role in the context of myth creation to argue for the cultural benefits of the use of such flawed techniques.

Simplified Predictive Instrument to Rule Out Acute Coronary Syndromes in a High-Risk Population.

BACKGROUND: It is unclear whether diagnostic protocols based on cardiac markers to identify low-risk chest pain patients suitable for early release from the emergency department can be applied to patients older than 65 years or with traditional cardiac risk factors. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single-center retrospective study of 231 consecutive patients with high-risk factor burden in which a first cardiac troponin (cTn) level was measured in the emergency department and a second cTn sample was drawn 4 to 14 hours later, we compared the performance of a modified 2-Hour Accelerated Diagnostic Protocol to Assess Patients with Chest Pain Using Contemporary Troponins as the Only Biomarker (ADAPT) rule to a new risk classification scheme that identifies patients as low risk if they have no known coronary artery disease, a nonischemic electrocardiogram, and 2 cTn levels below the assay's limit of detection. Demographic and outcome data were abstracted through chart review. The median age of our population was 64 years, and 75% had Thrombosis In Myocardial Infarction risk score ≥2. Using our risk classification rule, 53 (23%) patients were low risk with a negative predictive value for 30-day cardiac events of 98%. Applying a modified ADAPT rule to our cohort, 18 (8%) patients were identified as low risk with a negative predictive value of 100%. In a sensitivity analysis, the negative predictive value of our risk algorithm did not change when we relied only on undetectable baseline cTn and eliminated the second cTn assessment. CONCLUSIONS: If confirmed in prospective studies, this less-restrictive risk classification strategy could be used to safely identify chest pain patients with more traditional cardiac risk factors for early emergency department release.

Added value of diffusion-weighted MRI in detection of cervical cancer recurrence compared with morphologic and dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI sequences

PURPOSE We aimed to evaluate the added value of diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI) to standard magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for detecting post-treatment cervical cancer recurrence. The detection accuracy of T2-weighted (T2W) images was compared with that of T2W MRI combined with either dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI or DWI. METHODS Thirty-eight women with clinically suspected uterine cervical cancer recurrence more than six months after treatment completion were examined with 1.5 Tesla MRI including T2W, DCE, and DWI sequences. Disease was confirmed histologically and correlated with MRI findings. The diagnostic performance of T2W imaging and its combination with either DCE or DWI were analyzed. Sensitivity, positive predictive value, and accuracy were calculated. RESULTS Thirty-six women had histologically proven recurrence. The accuracy for recurrence detection was 80% with T2W/DCE MRI and 92.1% with T2W/DWI. The addition of DCE sequences did not significantly improve the diagnostic ability of T2W imaging, and this sequence combination misclassified two patients as falsely positive and seven as falsely negative. The T2W/DWI combination revealed a positive predictive value of 100% and only three false negatives. CONCLUSION The addition of DWI to T2W sequences considerably improved the diagnostic ability of MRI. Our results support the inclusion of DWI in the initial MRI protocol for the detection of cervical cancer recurrence, leaving DCE sequences as an option for uncertain cases.

High Diagnostic Accuracy And Reproducibility Of Fine-needle Aspiration Cytology For Diagnosing Salivary Gland Tumors: Cytohistologic Correlation In 182 Cases.

The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy and reproducibility of the cytologic diagnosis of salivary gland tumors (SGTs) using fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC). The study aimed to determine diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and to evaluate the extent of interobserver agreement. We retrospectively evaluated SGTs from the files of the Division of Pathology at the Clinics Hospital of São Paulo and Piracicaba Dental School between 2000 and 2006. We performed cytohistologic correlation in 182 SGTs. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy were 94%, 100%, 100%, 100%, and 99%, respectively. The interobserver cytologic reproducibility showed significant statistical concordance (P < .0001). FNAC is an effective tool for performing a reliable preoperative diagnosis in SGTs and shows high diagnostic accuracy and consistent interobserver reproducibility. Further FNAC studies analyzing large samples of malignant SGTs and reactive salivary lesions are needed to confirm their accuracy.

Histologic Correlation Of Expression Of Ki-67 In Squamous Cell Carcinoma Of The Glottis According To The Degree Of Cell Differentiation.

Squamous cell carcinoma is the most common neoplasm of the larynx and glottis, and its prognosis depends on the size of the lesion, level of local invasion, cervical lymphatic spread, and presence of distant metastases. Ki-67 (MKI67) is a protein present in the core, whose function is related to cell proliferation. To evaluate the expression of marker Ki-67 in squamous cell carcinoma of the larynx and glottis and its correlation to pathological findings. Experimental study with immunohistochemistry analysis of Ki-67, calculating the percentage of the cell proliferation index in glottic squamous cell carcinomas. Sixteen cases were analyzed, with six well-differentiated and 10 poorly/moderately differentiated tumors. There was a correlation between cell proliferation index and degree of cell differentiation, with higher proliferation in poorly/moderately differentiated tumors. The cell proliferation index, as measured by Ki-67, may be useful in the characterization of histological degree in glottic squamous cell tumors.

Volumetric Capnography For The Evaluation Of Chronic Airways Diseases.

Obstructive lung diseases of different etiologies present with progressive peripheral airway involvement. The peripheral airways, known as the silent lung zone, are not adequately evaluated with conventional function tests. The principle of gas washout has been used to detect pulmonary ventilation inhomogeneity and to estimate the location of the underlying disease process. Volumetric capnography (VC) analyzes the pattern of CO2 elimination as a function of expired volume. To measure normalized phase 3 slopes with VC in patients with non-cystic fibrosis bronchiectasis (NCB) and in bronchitic patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in order to compare the slopes obtained for the groups. NCB and severe COPD were enrolled sequentially from an outpatient clinic (Hospital of the State University of Campinas). A control group was established for the NCB group, paired by sex and age. All subjects performed spirometry, VC, and the 6-Minute Walk Test (6MWT). Two comparisons were made: NCB group versus its control group, and NCB group versus COPD group. The project was approved by the ethical committee of the institution. Statistical tests used were Wilcoxon or Student's t-test; P<0.05 was considered to be a statistically significant difference. Concerning the NCB group (N=20) versus the control group (N=20), significant differences were found in body mass index and in several functional variables (spirometric, VC, 6MWT) with worse results observed in the NCB group. In the comparison between the COPD group (N=20) versus the NCB group, although patients with COPD had worse spirometric and 6MWT values, the capnographic variables mean phase 2 slope (Slp2), mean phase 3 slope normalized by the mean expiratory volume, or mean phase 3 slope normalized by the end-tidal CO2 concentration were similar. These findings may indicate that the gas elimination curves are not sensitive enough to monitor the severity of structural abnormalities. The role of normalized phase 3 slope may be worth exploring as a more sensitive index of small airway disease, even though it may not be equally sensitive in discriminating the severity of the alterations.