880 resultados para Predictive Value Of Tests
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OBJECTIVES: Management of patients with atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) remains controversial. We chose to repeat the Pap smear after four months. If ASCUS persisted in this second test, the patient was advised to undergo colposcopy. Our objective is to determine the clinical significance and the prediction of neoplasia among these patients through a colposcopic examination. METHODS: Of 29,827 patients who had a Pap smear, ASCUS were detected in 1387 (5%) and persisted in the repeat smear of 225 (16%). Colposcopy and an additional Pap smear were performed on 186 patients. RESULTS: Out of 186 colposcopic evaluations, 91 (49%) were normal and the patients had a negative Pap smear. Colposcopy was abnormal in 95/186 patients (51%) (Table 1). Histology of the directed biopsies revealed 38 (21%) low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) and 17 (9%) high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL). Forty patients (21%) with normal biopsies had ASCUS for the third time in the Pap smear. CONCLUSIONS: Colposcopic evaluation after a repeated Pap smear with ASCUS is an appropriate cost-effective management. Finding 30% of LSIL or HSIL justifies this additional investigation.
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BACKGROUND: We sought to improve upon previously published statistical modeling strategies for binary classification of dyslipidemia for general population screening purposes based on the waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index anthropometric measurements. METHODS: Study subjects were participants in WHO-MONICA population-based surveys conducted in two Swiss regions. Outcome variables were based on the total serum cholesterol to high density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio. The other potential predictor variables were gender, age, current cigarette smoking, and hypertension. The models investigated were: (i) linear regression; (ii) logistic classification; (iii) regression trees; (iv) classification trees (iii and iv are collectively known as "CART"). Binary classification performance of the region-specific models was externally validated by classifying the subjects from the other region. RESULTS: Waist-to-hip circumference ratio and body mass index remained modest predictors of dyslipidemia. Correct classification rates for all models were 60-80%, with marked gender differences. Gender-specific models provided only small gains in classification. The external validations provided assurance about the stability of the models. CONCLUSIONS: There were no striking differences between either the algebraic (i, ii) vs. non-algebraic (iii, iv), or the regression (i, iii) vs. classification (ii, iv) modeling approaches. Anticipated advantages of the CART vs. simple additive linear and logistic models were less than expected in this particular application with a relatively small set of predictor variables. CART models may be more useful when considering main effects and interactions between larger sets of predictor variables.
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Injection drug use before and after liver transplantation: a retrospective multicenter analysis on incidence and outcome. Clin Transplant 2009 DOI: 10.1111/j.1399-0012.2009.01121.x. Background and aims: Injecting drug use (IDU) before and after liver transplantation (LT) is poorly described. The aim of this study was to quantify relapse and survival in this population and to describe the causes of mortality after LT. Methods: Past injection drug users were identified from the LT listing protocols from four centers in Switzerland and France. Data on survival and relapse were collected and used for uni- and multivariate analysis. Results: Between 1988 and 2006, we identified 59 patients with a past history of IDU. The mean age at transplantation was 42.4 yr and the majority of patients were men (84.7%). The indication for LT was for the vast majority viral cirrhosis accounting for 91.5% of cases, while alcoholic cirrhosis was 5.1%. There were 16.9% of patients who had a substitution therapy before and 6.8% who continued after LT. Two patients (3.4%) relapsed into IDU after LT and died at 18 and 41 months. The mean follow-up was 51 months. Overall survival was 84%, 66%, and 61% at 1, 5, and 10 yr after transplantation. Conclusions: Documented IDU was rare in liver transplanted patients. Past IDU was not associated with poorer survival after LT, and relapse after LT occurred in 3.4%.
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BACKGROUND: The AO comprehensive pediatric longbone fracture classification system describes the localization and morphology of fractures, and considers severity in 3 categories: (1) simple, (2) wedge, and (3) complex. We evaluated the reliability and accuracy of surgeons in using this rating system. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In a first validation phase, 5 experienced pediatric (orthopedic) surgeons reviewed radiographs of 267 prospectively collected pediatric fractures (agreement study A). In a second study (B), 70 surgeons of various levels of experience in 15 clinics classified 275 fractures via internet. Simple fractures comprised about 90%, 99% and 100% of diaphyseal (D), metaphyseal (M), and epiphyseal (E) fractures, respectively. RESULTS: Kappa coefficients for severity coding in D fractures were 0.82 and 0.51 in studies A and B, respectively. The median accuracy of surgeons in classifying simple fractures was above 97% in both studies but was lower, 85% (46-100), for wedge or complex D fractures. INTERPRETATION: While reliability and accuracy estimates were satisfactory as a whole, the ratings of some individual surgeons were inadequate. Our findings suggest that the classification of fracture severity in children should be done in only two categories that distinguish between simple and wedge/complex fractures.
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Kaposiform hemangioendothelioma (KHE) and tufted angioma (TA) are rare tumors mainly occurring in early childhood. Our recent results showed that ectopic overexpression of human Prox1 gene, a lymphatic endothelial nuclear transcription factor, promoted an aggressive behavior in 2 murine models of KHE. This dramatic Prox1-induced phenotype prompted us to investigate immunohistochemical staining pattern of Prox1, podoplanin (D2-40), LYVE-1, and Prox1/CD34 as well as double immunofluorescent staining pattern of LYVE-1/CD31 in KHE and TA, compared with other pediatric vascular tumors. For this purpose, we examined 75 vascular lesions: KHE (n=18), TA (n=13), infantile hemangioma (n=13), pyogenic granuloma (n=18), and granulation tissue (n=13). Overall, KHE and TA shared an identical endothelial immunophenotype: the neoplastic spindle cells were Prox1, podoplanin, LYVE-1, CD31, and CD34, whereas endothelial cells within glomeruloid foci were Prox1, podoplanin, LYVE-1, CD31, and CD34. The lesional cells of all infantile hemangiomas and pyogenic granulomas were negative for Prox1 in the presence of positive internal control. These findings provide immunophenotypic evidence to support a preexisting notion that KHE and TA are closely related, if not identical. Overall, our results show, for the first time, that Prox1 is an immunohistochemical biomarker helpful in confirming the diagnosis of KHE/TA and in distinguishing it from infantile hemangioma and pyogenic granuloma.
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BACKGROUND: Frailty, as defined by the index derived from the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS index), predicts risk of adverse outcomes in older adults. Use of this index, however, is impractical in clinical practice. METHODS: We conducted a prospective cohort study in 6701 women 69 years or older to compare the predictive validity of a simple frailty index with the components of weight loss, inability to rise from a chair 5 times without using arms, and reduced energy level (Study of Osteoporotic Fractures [SOF index]) with that of the CHS index with the components of unintentional weight loss, poor grip strength, reduced energy level, slow walking speed, and low level of physical activity. Women were classified as robust, of intermediate status, or frail using each index. Falls were reported every 4 months for 1 year. Disability (> or =1 new impairment in performing instrumental activities of daily living) was ascertained at 4(1/2) years, and fractures and deaths were ascertained during 9 years of follow-up. Area under the curve (AUC) statistics from receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and -2 log likelihood statistics were compared for models containing the CHS index vs the SOF index. RESULTS: Increasing evidence of frailty as defined by either the CHS index or the SOF index was similarly associated with an increased risk of adverse outcomes. Frail women had a higher age-adjusted risk of recurrent falls (odds ratio, 2.4), disability (odds ratio, 2.2-2.8), nonspine fracture (hazard ratio, 1.4-1.5), hip fracture (hazard ratio, 1.7-1.8), and death (hazard ratio, 2.4-2.7) (P < .001 for all models). The AUC comparisons revealed no differences between models with the CHS index vs the SOF index in discriminating falls (AUC = 0.61 for both models; P = .66), disability (AUC = 0.64; P = .23), nonspine fracture (AUC = 0.55; P = .80), hip fracture (AUC = 0.63; P = .64), or death (AUC = 0.72; P = .10). Results were similar when -2 log likelihood statistics were compared. CONCLUSION: The simple SOF index predicts risk of falls, disability, fracture, and death as well as the more complex CHS index and may provide a useful definition of frailty to identify older women at risk of adverse health outcomes in clinical practice.
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INTRODUCTION: Persistent atrial fibrillation (AF) ablation may lead to partial disconnection of the coronary sinus (CS). As a result, disparate activation sequences of the local CS versus contiguous left atrium (LA) may be observed during atrial tachycardia (AT). We aimed to evaluate the prevalence of this phenomenon and its impact on activation mapping. METHODS: AT occurring after persistent AF ablation were investigated in 74 consecutive patients. Partial CS disconnection during AT was suspected when double potentials with disparate activation sequences were observed on the CS catheter. Endocardial mapping facing CS bipoles was performed to differentiate LA far-field from local CS potentials. RESULTS: A total of 149 ATs were observed. Disparate LA-CS activations were apparent in 20 ATs after magnifying the recording scale (13%). The most common pattern (90%) was distal to proximal endocardial LA activation against proximal to distal CS activation, the latter involving the whole CS or its distal part. Perimitral macroreentry was more common when disparate LA-CS activations were observed (67% vs 29%; P = 0.002). Partial CS disconnection also resulted in "pseudo" mitral isthmus (MI) block during LA appendage pacing in 20% of patients as local CS activation was proximal to distal despite distal to proximal activation of the contiguous LA. CONCLUSION: Careful analysis of CS recordings during AT following persistent AF ablation often reveals disparate patterns of activation. Recognizing when endocardial LA activation occurs in the opposite direction to the more obvious local CS signals is critical to avoid misleading interpretations during mapping of AT and evaluation of MI block.
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Background. A software based tool has been developed (Optem) to allow automatize the recommendations of the Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group for optimizing MS treatment in order to avoid subjective interpretation. METHODS: Treatment Optimization Recommendations (TORs) were applied to our database of patients treated with IFN beta1a IM. Patient data were assessed during year 1 for disease activity, and patients were assigned to 2 groups according to TOR: "change treatment" (CH) and "no change treatment" (NCH). These assessments were then compared to observed clinical outcomes for disease activity over the following years. RESULTS: We have data on 55 patients. The "change treatment" status was assigned to 22 patients, and "no change treatment" to 33 patients. The estimated sensitivity and specificity according to last visit status were 73.9% and 84.4%. During the following years, the Relapse Rate was always higher in the "change treatment" group than in the "no change treatment" group (5 y; CH: 0.7, NCH: 0.07; p < 0.001, 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.536, NCH: 0.34). We obtained the same results with the EDSS (4 y; CH: 3.53, NCH: 2.55, annual progression rate in 12 m - last visit; CH: 0.29, NCH: 0.13). CONCLUSION: Applying TOR at the first year of therapy allowed accurate prediction of continued disease activity in relapses and disability progression.
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Background: Numerous hypermethylated genes have been reported in breast cancer, and the silencing of these genes plays an important role in carcinogenesis, tumor progression and diagnosis. These hypermethylated promoters are very rarely found in normal breast. It has been suggested that aberrant hypermethylation may be useful as a biomarker, with implications for breast cancer etiology, diagnosis, and management. The relationship between primary neoplasm and metastasis remains largely unknown. There has been no comprehensive comparative study on the clinical usefulness of tumor-associated methylated DNA biomarkers in primary breast carcinoma and metastatic breast carcinoma. The objective of the present study was to investigate the association between clinical extension of breast cancer and methylation status of Estrogen Receptor1 (ESR1) and Stratifin (14-3-3-σ) gene promoters in disease-free and metastatic breast cancer patients. Methods: We studied two cohorts of patients: 77 patients treated for breast cancer with no signs of disease, and 34 patients with metastatic breast cancer. DNA was obtained from serum samples, and promoter methylation status was determined by using DNA bisulfite modification and quantitative methylation-specific PCR. Results: Serum levels of methylated gene promoter 14-3-3-σ significantly differed between Control and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001), and between Disease-Free and Metastatic Breast Cancer groups (P < 0.001). The ratio of the 14-3-3-σ level before the first chemotherapy cycle to the level just before administration of the second chemotherapy cycle was defined as the Biomarker Response Ratio [BRR]. We calculated BRR values for the "continuous decline" and "rise-and-fall" groups. Subsequent ROC analysis showed a sensitivity of 75% (95% CI: 47.6 - 86.7) and a specificity of 66.7% (95% CI: 41.0 - 86.7) to discriminate between the groups for a cut-off level of BRR = 2.39. The area under the ROC curve (Z = 0.804 ± 0.074) indicates that this test is a good approach to post-treatment prognosis. Conclusions: The relationship of 14-3-3-σ with breast cancer metastasis and progression found in this study suggests a possible application of 14-3-3-σ as a biomarker to screen for metastasis and to follow up patients treated for metastatic breast cancer, monitoring their disease status and treatment response.
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To evaluate whether an activity monitor based on body acceleration measurement can accurately assess the energy cost of the human locomotion, 12 subjects walked a combination of three different speeds (preferred speed +/- 1 km/h) and seven slopes (-15 to +15% by steps of 5%) on a treadmill. Body accelerations were recorded using a triaxial accelerometer attached to the low back. The mean of the integral of the vector magnitude (norm) of the accelerations (mIAN) was calculated. VO2 was measured using continuous indirect calorimetry. When the results were separately analysed for each incline, mIAN was correlated to VO2 (average r = 0.87, p<0.001, n = 36). VO2 was not significantly correlated to mIAN when data were globally analysed (n = 252). Large relative errors occurred when predicted VO2 (estimated from data of level walking) was compared with measured VO2 for different inclines (-53% at +15% incline, to +55% at -15% incline). It is concluded that without an external measurement of the slope, the standard method of analysis of body accelerations cannot accurately predict the energy cost of uphill or downhill walking.
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PURPOSE: To evaluate and validate mRNA expression markers capable of identifying patients with ErbB2-positive breast cancer associated with distant metastasis and reduced survival. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Expression of 60 genes involved in breast cancer biology was assessed by quantitative real-time PCR (qrt-PCR) in 317 primary breast cancer patients and correlated with clinical outcome data. Results were validated subsequently using two previously published and publicly available microarray data sets with different patient populations comprising 295 and 286 breast cancer samples, respectively. RESULTS: Of the 60 genes measured by qrt-PCR, urokinase-type plasminogen activator (uPA or PLAU) mRNA expression was the most significant marker associated with distant metastasis-free survival (MFS) by univariate Cox analysis in patients with ErbB2-positive tumors and an independent factor in multivariate analysis. Subsequent validation in two microarray data sets confirmed the prognostic value of uPA in ErbB2-positive tumors by both univariate and multivariate analysis. uPA mRNA expression was not significantly associated with MFS in ErbB2-negative tumors. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed in all three study populations that patients with ErbB2-positive/uPA-positive tumors exhibited significantly reduced MFS (hazard ratios [HR], 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 11.8; HR, 2.7; 95% CI, 1.2 to 6.2; and, HR, 2.8; 95% CI, 1.1 to 7.1; all P < .02) as compared with the group with ErbB2-positive/uPA-negative tumors who exhibited similar outcome to those with ErbB2-negative tumors, irrespective of uPA status. CONCLUSION: After evaluation of 898 breast cancer patients, uPA mRNA expression emerged as a powerful prognostic indicator in ErbB2-positive tumors. These results were consistent among three independent study populations assayed by different techniques, including qrt-PCR and two microarray platforms.
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BACKGROUND: Knowledge of the number of recent HIV infections is important for epidemiologic surveillance. Over the past decade approaches have been developed to estimate this number by testing HIV-seropositive specimens with assays that discriminate the lower concentration and avidity of HIV antibodies in early infection. We have investigated whether this "recency" information can also be gained from an HIV confirmatory assay. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The ability of a line immunoassay (INNO-LIA HIV I/II Score, Innogenetics) to distinguish recent from older HIV-1 infection was evaluated in comparison with the Calypte HIV-1 BED Incidence enzyme immunoassay (BED-EIA). Both tests were conducted prospectively in all HIV infections newly diagnosed in Switzerland from July 2005 to June 2006. Clinical and laboratory information indicative of recent or older infection was obtained from physicians at the time of HIV diagnosis and used as the reference standard. BED-EIA and various recency algorithms utilizing the antibody reaction to INNO-LIA's five HIV-1 antigen bands were evaluated by logistic regression analysis. A total of 765 HIV-1 infections, 748 (97.8%) with complete test results, were newly diagnosed during the study. A negative or indeterminate HIV antibody assay at diagnosis, symptoms of primary HIV infection, or a negative HIV test during the past 12 mo classified 195 infections (26.1%) as recent (< or = 12 mo). Symptoms of CDC stages B or C classified 161 infections as older (21.5%), and 392 patients with no symptoms remained unclassified. BED-EIA ruled 65% of the 195 recent infections as recent and 80% of the 161 older infections as older. Two INNO-LIA algorithms showed 50% and 40% sensitivity combined with 95% and 99% specificity, respectively. Estimation of recent infection in the entire study population, based on actual results of the three tests and adjusted for a test's sensitivity and specificity, yielded 37% for BED-EIA compared to 35% and 33% for the two INNO-LIA algorithms. Window-based estimation with BED-EIA yielded 41% (95% confidence interval 36%-46%). CONCLUSIONS: Recency information can be extracted from INNO-LIA-based confirmatory testing at no additional costs. This method should improve epidemiologic surveillance in countries that routinely use INNO-LIA for HIV confirmation.
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Levels of circulating cardiac troponin I (cTnI) or T are correlated to extent of myocardial destruction after an acute myocardial infarction. Few studies analyzing this relation have employed a second-generation cTnI assay or cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) as the imaging end point. In this post hoc study of the Efficacy of FX06 in the Prevention of Mycoardial Reperfusion Injury (F.I.R.E.) trial, we aimed at determining the correlation between single-point cTnI measurements and CMR-estimated infarct size at 5 to 7 days and 4 months after a first-time ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) and investigating whether cTnI might provide independent prognostic information regarding infarct size at 4 months even taking into account early infarct size. Two hundred twenty-seven patients with a first-time STEMI were included in F.I.R.E. All patients received primary percutaneous coronary intervention within 6 hours from onset of symptoms. cTnI was measured at 24 and 48 hours after admission. CMR was conducted within 1 week of the index event (5 to 7 days) and at 4 months. Pearson correlations (r) for infarct size and cTnI at 24 hours were r = 0.66 (5 days) and r = 0.63 (4 months) and those for cTnI at 48 hours were r = 0.67 (5 days) and r = 0.65 (4 months). In a multiple regression analysis for predicting infarct size at 4 months (n = 141), cTnI and infarct location retained an independent prognostic role even taking into account early infarct size. In conclusion, a single-point cTnI measurement taken early after a first-time STEMI is a useful marker for infarct size and might also supplement early CMR evaluation in prediction of infarct size at 4 months.
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Compared to total allergenic extracts, recombinant allergens available for specific IgE measurement represent an important advance in the diagnosis and treatment of IgE-mediated allergies. Recombinant allergens lead to define the sensitization profile of allergic patients, to identify markers of sensitization and to understand better polysensitivities related to cross-reactions and markers of severity of allergic reactions. They also contribute to the decision to establish tolerance induction (allergen specific immunotherapy) and the optimal selection of the allergenic composition of the vaccine.
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The evaluation of sepsis severity is complicated by the highly variable and nonspecific nature of clinical signs and symptoms. We studied routinely used biomarkers together with clinical parameters to compare their prognostic value for severe sepsis and evaluate their usefulness.