Análise da salubridade do meio urbano com base na utilização de índices ambientais: aplicação na bacia de drenagem XII da cidade do Natal-RN

The growing accumulation of people in urban centers caused chronic problems of the cities to begin to take an increasingly unsustainable. Primarily related to lack of infrastructure coupled with sanitation and lack of investment in critical sectors such as health, education, housing and transportation, these problems start to deteriorate markedly the quality of life of city dwellers and put into test management policies of the spaces urbanized. To reverse this situation, shows is essential to the use of tools (highlighting this harvest rates and environmental indicators) that help in assessing the current conditions and may assist in predicting future scenarios. From the information listed above, now put the research seeks to present an index called ISBA Environmental (Sanitation Index) which looks at the four urban systems (water, sewer, solid waste and urban drainage) from the viewpoint of application in a geographical cutout specific - in this case the Drainage Basin XII, defined by the Plan of Urban Drainage Stormwater in the city of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte. This index, together with analysis of other factors sought to trace the current conditions of the basin and thus, assist in proposing the best solutions. For the preparation of the index was applied a questionnaire with a sample of 384 (three hundred eighty-four) households that aimed to study two variables: access to services and satisfaction of the population in relation to these. The ISBA has shown that the system is the most deficient collection and disposal of effluents (ICE = 47.66%), followed by the drainage of rainwater (IDAP = 54.17%), water supply (AAI = 61, 36) and solid waste collection (IRS = 78.28). With the ISBA was possible to verify that the qualitative data shows whose subjectivity is evident (as is the case of user satisfaction) can be of great importance when an assessment, since we obtained the correlation coefficient between the variables "Access" and " Satisfaction "equal to 0.8234, showing a strong correlation between the existence / quality of service offered and the impressions of the population that receives them

Demographic models for projections of social sector demand

Includes bibliography

Um perfil de concluintes do curso superior com base no ENADE (2005)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

A expansão urbano-industrial do município de Americana - SP: geotecnologias aplicadas à análise temporal e simulação de cenários

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Avaliação do complexo crânio-facial em indivíduos portadores de síndrome de down: um estudo radiográfico cefalométrico

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Aplicações das Cadeias de Markov para o Ensino Médio

Pós-graduação em Matemática em Rede Nacional - IBILCE

Evaluating Prediction Rules for t-Year Survivors With Censored Regression Models

Suppose that we are interested in establishing simple, but reliable rules for predicting future t-year survivors via censored regression models. In this article, we present inference procedures for evaluating such binary classification rules based on various prediction precision measures quantified by the overall misclassification rate, sensitivity and specificity, and positive and negative predictive values. Specifically, under various working models we derive consistent estimators for the above measures via substitution and cross validation estimation procedures. Furthermore, we provide large sample approximations to the distributions of these nonsmooth estimators without assuming that the working model is correctly specified. Confidence intervals, for example, for the difference of the precision measures between two competing rules can then be constructed. All the proposals are illustrated with two real examples and their finite sample properties are evaluated via a simulation study.

CMR imaging predicts death and other adverse events in suspected cardiac sarcoidosis

OBJECTIVES This study aimed to demonstrate that the presence of late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) is a predictor of death and other adverse events in patients with suspected cardiac sarcoidosis. BACKGROUND Cardiac sarcoidosis is the most important cause of patient mortality in systemic sarcoidosis, yielding a 5-year mortality rate between 25% and 66% despite immunosuppressive treatment. Other groups have shown that LGE may hold promise in predicting future adverse events in this patient group. METHODS We included 155 consecutive patients with systemic sarcoidosis who underwent cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) for workup of suspected cardiac sarcoid involvement. The median follow-up time was 2.6 years. Primary endpoints were death, aborted sudden cardiac death, and appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) discharge. Secondary endpoints were ventricular tachycardia (VT) and nonsustained VT. RESULTS LGE was present in 39 patients (25.5%). The presence of LGE yields a Cox hazard ratio (HR) of 31.6 for death, aborted sudden cardiac death, or appropriate ICD discharge, and of 33.9 for any event. This is superior to functional or clinical parameters such as left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction (EF), LV end-diastolic volume, or presentation as heart failure, yielding HRs between 0.99 (per % increase LVEF) and 1.004 (presentation as heart failure), and between 0.94 and 1.2 for potentially lethal or other adverse events, respectively. Except for 1 patient dying from pulmonary infection, no patient without LGE died or experienced any event during follow-up, even if the LV was enlarged and the LVEF severely impaired. CONCLUSIONS Among our population of sarcoid patients with nonspecific symptoms, the presence of myocardial scar indicated by LGE was the best independent predictor of potentially lethal events, as well as other adverse events, yielding a Cox HR of 31.6 and of 33.9, respectively. These data support the necessity for future large, longitudinal follow-up studies to definitely establish LGE as an independent predictor of cardiac death in sarcoidosis, as well as to evaluate the incremental prognostic value of additional parameters.

THE POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF A COMMUNITY DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM ON DEMOGRAPHIC VARIABLES IN HIMALAYAN INDIAN VILLAGES

A community development program operating in the mountains of North India was studied to assess its potential effects on mortality, fertility and migration patterns in the community which it served. The development program operated in Jaunpur Block, Tehri-Garhwal District, Uttar Pradesh State. Two comparable villages in the district were studied. The development program had been working in one for two years, and the other was completely untouched by the program.^ Since not enough time had elapsed since the beginning of the development program's work for any effects on demographic patterns to be visable in Jaunpur Block, this study looked to attitudes of village residents as indicators of future demographic trends. Existing demographic patterns and their interrelationship with socio-religious customs were examined in the test village. A questionnaire was then administered to ascertain attitudinal differences between the residents of the test village and the control village.^ The primary work of the community development program was to train women as village health workers. The results of the attitudinal comparison of the residents of the two villages showed a marked difference in attitudes relating to the position of women in society. The data showed a higher esteem for women in the test village than in the control village, and it is argued that this difference may be attributable to the work of the development program.^ Predicting future demographic trends in Jaunpur Block on the basis of the observed difference in villagers' attitudes toward the status of women is speculatory. Jaunpur Block appears to be in the demographic stage of pre-transition, maintaining relatively high rates of both mortality and fertility. Based on demographic transition theory the next significant change in demographic patterns in Jaunpur is predicted to be a decline in mortality, and an increase in the status of women is unrelated to this prediction.^ The community development program which was studied terminated unexpectedly during the time of this study. A case study of the program's final months is presented, and speculation on the future course of demographic trends in Jaunpur Block is related to the possible alternatives for future development in the area. ^

Consistent increase in dimethyl sulfide (DMS) in response to high CO2 in five shipboard bioassays from contrasting NW European waters

The ubiquitous marine trace gas dimethyl sulfide (DMS) comprises the greatest natural source of sulfur to the atmosphere and is a key player in atmospheric chemistry and climate. We explore the short-term response of DMS production and cycling and that of its algal precursor dimethyl sulfoniopropionate (DMSP) to elevated carbon dioxide (CO2) and ocean acidification (OA) in five 96 h shipboard bioassay experiments. Experiments were performed in June and July 2011, using water collected from contrasting sites in NW European waters (Outer Hebrides, Irish Sea, Bay of Biscay, North Sea). Concentrations of DMS and DMSP, alongside rates of DMSP synthesis and DMS production and consumption, were determined during all experiments for ambient CO2 and three high-CO2 treatments (550, 750, 1000 µatm). In general, the response to OA throughout this region showed little variation, despite encompassing a range of biological and biogeochemical conditions. We observed consistent and marked increases in DMS concentrations relative to ambient controls (110% (28-223%) at 550 µatm, 153% (56-295%) at 750 µatm and 225% (79-413%) at 1000 µatm), and decreases in DMSP concentrations (28% (18-40%) at 550 µatm, 44% (18-64%) at 750 µatm and 52% (24-72%) at 1000 µatm). Significant decreases in DMSP synthesis rate constants (µDMSP /d) and DMSP production rates (nmol/d) were observed in two experiments (7-90% decrease), whilst the response under high CO2 from the remaining experiments was generally indistinguishable from ambient controls. Rates of bacterial DMS gross consumption and production gave weak and inconsistent responses to high CO2. The variables and rates we report increase our understanding of the processes behind the response to OA. This could provide the opportunity to improve upon mesocosm-derived empirical modelling relationships and to move towards a mechanistic approach for predicting future DMS concentrations.

Synthesized grounding line and ice shelf mask for Antarctica

Iceberg calving has been assumed to be the dominant cause of mass loss for the Antarctic ice sheet, with previous estimates of the calving flux exceeding 2,000 gigatonnes per year. More recently, the importance of melting by the ocean has been demonstrated close to the grounding line and near the calving front. So far, however, no study has reliably quantified the calving flux and the basal mass balance (the balance between accretion and ablation at the ice-sheet base) for the whole of Antarctica. The distribution of fresh water in the Southern Ocean and its partitioning between the liquid and solid phases is therefore poorly constrained. Here we estimate the mass balance components for all ice shelves in Antarctica, using satellite measurements of calving flux and grounding-line flux, modelled ice-shelf snow accumulation rates and a regional scaling that accounts for unsurveyed areas. We obtain a total calving flux of 1,321 ± 144 gigatonnes per year and a total basal mass balance of -1,454 ± 174 gigatonnes per year. This means that about half of the ice-sheet surface mass gain is lost through oceanic erosion before reaching the ice front, and the calving flux is about 34 per cent less than previous estimates derived from iceberg tracking. In addition, the fraction of mass loss due to basal processes varies from about 10 to 90 per cent between ice shelves. We find a significant positive correlation between basal mass loss and surface elevation change for ice shelves experiencing surface lowering and enhanced discharge. We suggest that basal mass loss is a valuable metric for predicting future ice-shelf vulnerability to oceanic forcing.

Nicotinamide nucleotide and adenylate concentrations in mante, siphon and gill tissue of old and young Laternula elliptica individuals under control and experimental conditions

Future oceans are predicted to contain less oxygen than at present. This is because oxygen is less soluble in warmer water and predicted stratification will reduce mixing. Hypoxia in marine environments is thus likely to become more widespread in marine environments and understanding species-responses is important to predicting future impacts on biodiversity. This study used a tractable model, the Antarctic clam, Laternula elliptica, which can live for 36 years, and has a well-characterized ecology and physiology to understand responses to hypoxia and how the effect varied with age. Younger animals had a higher condition index, higher adenylate energy charge and transcriptional profiling indicated that they were physically active in their response to hypoxia, whereas older animals were more sedentary, with higher levels of oxidative damage and apoptosis in the gills. These effects could be attributed, in part, to age-related tissue scaling; older animals had proportionally less contractile muscle mass and smaller gills and foot compared with younger animals, with consequential effects on the whole-animal physiological response. The data here emphasize the importance of including age effects, as large mature individuals appear to be less able to resist hypoxic conditions and this is the size range that is the major contributor to future generations. Thus, the increased prevalence of hypoxia in future oceans may have marked effects on benthic organisms' abilities to persist and this is especially so for long-lived species when predicting responses to environmental perturbation.

Effects of ocean acidification and global warming on reef bioerosion-lessons from a clionaid sponge

Coral reefs are under threat, exerted by a number of interacting effects inherent to the present climate change, including ocean acidification and global warming. Bioerosion drives reef degradation by recycling carbonate skeletal material and is an important but understudied factor in this context. Twelve different combinations of pCO2 and temperature were applied to elucidate the consequences of ocean acidification and global warming on the physiological response and bioerosion rates of the zooxanthellate sponge Cliona orientalis-one of the most abundant and effective bioeroders on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Our results confirm a significant amplification of the sponges' bioerosion capacity with increasing pCO2, which is expressed by more carbonate being chemically dissolved by etching. The health of the sponges and their photosymbionts was not affected by changes in pCO2, in contrast to temperature, which had significant negative impacts at higher levels. However, we could not conclusively explain the relationship between temperature and bioerosion rates, which were slightly reduced at both colder as well as warmer temperatures than ambient. The present findings on the effects of ocean acidification on chemical bioerosion, however, will have significant implications for predicting future reef carbonate budgets, as sponges often contribute the lion's share of internal bioerosion on coral reefs.

Potential of the renewable energy development in Jammu and Kashmir, India

The future economic growth for India is likely to result in rapid and accelerated surge in energy demand, with expected shortages in terms of supply. Many of its current policies and strategies are aimed at the improvement and possible maximization of energy production from the renewable sector. It is also clear that while energy conservation and energy efficiency can make an important contribution, renewable energies will be essential to the solution and are likely to play an increasingly important role for providing enhanced energy access, reducing consumption of fossil fuels, and helping India pursue its low-carbon progressive pathway. However, most of the states in India, like the northernmost state of Jammu and Kashmir, have experienced an energy crisis over a sustained period of time and the government both at center and state level has to embark upon with these pressing issues in a more sustainable manner and accordingly initiate various renewable energy projects within these states. This paper will provide a broad-spectrum view about the energy situation within Jammu and Kashmir and will highlight the current policies along with future strategies for the optimal utilization of renewable energy resources.

The Global Economy in 2030: Trends and Strategies for Europe. CEPS Paperback, 2 April 2014

This groundbreaking study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope. Our goal in pursuing this research is not to make precise predictions about growth rates or the size of individual economies, but to provide a guide for EU policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe. In an attempt to respond to this need, this study concentrates on a set of critical economic factors that will shape future economic growth at the global level and offers a description of the possible evolution of their reach and scope, which often go beyond the purely economic dimension. Our ultimate goal is to provide a guide for policy-makers by presenting an assessment of the possible implications of such trends for the global economy and the policy challenges they raise for Europe.