Past and recent changes in the North Atlantic oscillation

The North Atlantic oscillation (NAO) is under current climate conditions the leading mode of atmospheric circulation variability over the North Atlantic region. While the pattern is present during the entire year, it is most important during winter, explaining a large part of the variability of the large-scale pressure field, being thus largely determinant for the weather conditions over the North Atlantic basin and over Western Europe. In this study, a review of recent literature on the basic understanding of the NAO, its variability on different time scales and driving physical mechanisms is presented. In particular, the observed NAO variations and long-term trends are put into a long term perspective by considering paleo-proxy evidence. A representative number of recently released NAO reconstructions are discussed. While the reconstructions agree reasonably well with observations during the instrumental overlapping period, there is a rather high uncertainty between the different reconstructions for the pre-instrumental period, which leads to partially incoherent results, that is, periods where the NAO reconstructions do not agree even in sign. Finally, we highlight the future need of a broader definition of the NAO, the assessment of the stability of the teleconnection centers over time, the analysis of the relations to other relevant variables like temperature and precipitation, as well as on the relevant processes involved

Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Price discovery of credit spreads in tranquil and crisis periods

In this paper we investigate the price discovery process in single-name credit spreads obtained from bond, credit default swap (CDS), equity and equity option prices. We analyse short term price discovery by modelling daily changes in credit spreads in the four markets with a vector autoregressive model (VAR). We also look at price discovery in the long run with a vector error correction model (VECM). We find that in the short term the option market clearly leads the other markets in the sub-prime crisis (2007-2009). During the less severe sovereign debt crisis (2009-2012) and the pre-crisis period, options are still important but CDSs become more prominent. In the long run, deviations from the equilibrium relationship with the option market still lead to adjustments in the credit spreads observed or implied from other markets. However, options no longer dominate price discovery in any of the periods considered. Our findings have implications for traders, credit risk managers and financial regulators.

Flight to quality? An investigation of changing price spreads in commercial real estate markets

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach – Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings – The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications – Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications – These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications – The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people’s livelihoods. Originality/value – This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil.

Postnatal fluoxetine treatment affects the development of serotonergic neurons in rats

The goal of the present study was to investigate morphological changes in the serotonergic neurons/terminals in the dorsal (DR) and median (MnR) raphe nuclei and on the hippocampal dentate gyrus (DG) in neonatal rats treated from the 1st to the 21st postnatal day with fluoxetine (10 mg/kg sc, daily) or drug vehicle (0 9% saline 1 ml/kg). The results show that postnatal chronic treatment with fluoxetine promoted. (1) a smaller body weight increase during the pre-weaning period; (2) smaller number of 5-HT neurons in the DR, (3) smaller 5-HT neuronal cell bodies (area, perimeter and diameter) in the DR and the MnR and (4) diminished serotonergic terminals in the DG. These data suggest that the development of the serotonergic system was impaired and that early exposure to fluoxetine damaged the morphology of 5-HT neurons in young adult rats While these findings are consistent with other work, more studies are needed to better clarify the effects of postnatal chronic treatment with fluoxetine on the serotonergic system and, consequently, on the functions modulated by serotonin (C) 2010 Elsevier Ireland Ltd All rights reserved

Underpricing of equity offerings in Brazil

We examine the underpricing of twenty-seven IPOs and twenty-nine SEOs issued in Brazil from January 1999 to March 2006. Determinants on pre-market demand, underwriting activities and information asymmetry were discussed. Common characteristics seem to exist between all issues. 94% have been on premium market corporate level and 93% were realized via bookbuilding. Underpricing for IPOs and SEOs has been recorded at 9.6% and 3.6%, respectively. IPOs are more underpriced when (i) more informed investors receive shares, (ii)better ranked underwriters lead the offer, and (iii) there is positive revision in the final price compared to the initial price range defined before information disclosure. SEOs are more underpriced when (i) shares presents higher appreciation in pre-offer period, and (ii) the proportion of primary offers are larger, supporting adverse selection costs theory.

Exames curriculares e resultados educacionais: uma análise do exame nacional do ensino médio

Esta dissertação avalia os efeitos do Exame Nacional do Ensino Médio (ENEM) sobre o ensino médio brasileiro. Esta avaliação baseia-se na teoria de que exames curriculares com a qualidade de gerar conseqüências diretas sobre os alunos, como no caso do ENEM, são capazes de influenciar positivamente o aprendizado dos alunos por dois canais: por aumento de seu esforço e pela pressão que exercem sobre professores e diretores. O presente trabalho avalia especificamente o segundo canal, sobre o qual o ENEM deve atuar por meio da divulgação ao público das notas médias por escola em todo o país. Neste sentido, estima-se o efeito da divulgação das notas do ENEM sobre os seguintes resultados educacionais: proficiência em Matemática e Língua Portuguesa no Saeb, alocação de insumos escolares e comportamento dos professores. Para tanto, dois métodos são propostos: i) diferenças em diferenças, utilizando dados dos Saeb de 2005 – um ano antes do início da divulgação – e 2007 – um ano após a primeira publicação – e ii) regressão com descontinuidade, explorando o fato de haver uma regra estrita para entrada da escola na divulgação – ter ao menos 10 concluintes do ensino médio participando do ENEM. Os resultados mostram que o fato uma escola ter seu resultado médio no ENEM divulgado não parece influenciar o desempenho de seus alunos nem a quantidade de seus insumos escolares, por nenhum dos métodos propostos. O método de diferenças em diferenças aponta ainda que os professores de escolas submetidas ao tratamento dessa divulgação parecem ter maior enfoque em atividades voltadas a resolução de exercícios e fixação de regras gramaticais, reação que é interpretada por parte da literatura como adversa. Estes últimos resultados, no entanto, podem estar refletindo apenas tendências temporais preexistentes e não um efeito de tratamento legítimo. Conclui-se então que o ENEM não deve estar servindo como indutor de melhorias dos resultados educacionais via pressão dos alunos do ensino médio. Porém, é possível levantar a hipótese de que este tipo de efeito ainda pode ser captado em prazos mais longos ou para grupos de escolas diferentes das usadas na análise.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas (1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major differences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values -β=0.985, and ∅=5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% - the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business- cycle fluctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same figures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

On the welfare costs of business-cycle fluctuations and economic-growth variation in the 20th century

Lucas(1987) has shown a surprising result in business-cycle research: the welfare cost of business cycles are very small. Our paper has several original contributions. First, in computing welfare costs, we propose a novel setup that separates the effects of uncertainty stemming from business-cycle uctuations and economic-growth variation. Second, we extend the sample from which to compute the moments of consumption: the whole of the literature chose primarily to work with post-WWII data. For this period, actual consumption is already a result of counter-cyclical policies, and is potentially smoother than what it otherwise have been in their absence. So, we employ also pre-WWII data. Third, we take an econometric approach and compute explicitly the asymptotic standard deviation of welfare costs using the Delta Method. Estimates of welfare costs show major diferences for the pre-WWII and the post-WWII era. They can reach up to 15 times for reasonable parameter values = 0:985, and = 5. For example, in the pre-WWII period (1901-1941), welfare cost estimates are 0.31% of consumption if we consider only permanent shocks and 0.61% of consumption if we consider only transitory shocks. In comparison, the post-WWII era is much quieter: welfare costs of economic growth are 0.11% and welfare costs of business cycles are 0.037% the latter being very close to the estimate in Lucas (0.040%). Estimates of marginal welfare costs are roughly twice the size of the total welfare costs. For the pre-WWII era, marginal welfare costs of economic-growth and business-cycle uctuations are respectively 0.63% and 1.17% of per-capita consumption. The same gures for the post-WWII era are, respectively, 0.21% and 0.07% of per-capita consumption.

União monetária Européia : diferenças no mecanismo de transmissão monetária

This study identifies differences in the monetary policy transmission mechanism across countries in the euro area. It is argued that part of the differences in the response of economic activity to monetary policy during the pre-EMU period reflected differences in monetary policy reaction functions, rather than different transmission mechanisms. In particular, monetary policy appears to have been more persistent in Germany and in those countries closely following Germany (such as Netherlands and Austria) in the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Monetary policy in these countries appears to have had significant effects on domestic output. The corollary is that under EMU other countries—in particular France, Italy, Ireland, and Finland—are expected to see more sensitivity of output to monetary policy under EMU. Nevertheless, a common monetary policy is still found to bring about heterogeneous output responses across countries, reflecting variations in the strength of the interest, credit, and exchange rate channels that remain under EMU.

Afinal, quantos éramos? Um estudo da mortalidade pretérita na freguesia da gloriosa Sant Anna

Search mortality in the glorious St. Anna Parish, hinterland of Rio Grande do Norte in the time frame 1788-1838 is the main objective of this research. Questions that the research aims to answer are: how many were after? Data parish deaths allow us to study mortality in Town? To conduct the research, first appealed to the population maps of the years 1777, 1810, 1811, 1824, 1844, 1853; censuses of 1872 and 1890. As well, the first two books of burials / deaths of the Parish, the first dating from 1788 to 1811 and the second from 1812 to 1838 and a book of baptism 1803-1806. Among the findings it was realized that, for now, the question of knowing, "After all, how many were?" Still cannot be answered, because during the analysis we noticed a high rate of underreporting, demonstrated through a study of the first infant mortality, in which the records we have was very high, which goes against the pre-transitional period, but with the exercise of inverse projection found the opposite, a population that would have a life expectancy higher. Demonstrating the problem of underreporting. Infant deaths occur mainly with the male children in the first months of the year due to infectious causes, and in the early days and weeks, we raised a hypothesis is that these deaths have as a backdrop the poor condition of the mother leading to poor training child, thus leading to his early death

Biópsia hepática com agulha tru-cut guiada por videolaparoscopia em caprinos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Cardiac function in dogs with chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy undergoing autologous stem cell transplantation into the coronary arteries

This study assessed the effects of a single intracoronary injection of autologous stem cells on the cardiac function of dogs with Chagas cardiomyopathy. Bone-marrow-derived stem cells were delivered into the right and left coronary arteries of 5 mature dogs with mildly compromised cardiac function due to chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy. Blood pressure and electrocardiographic and echocardiographic parameters were recorded at monthly intervals for 6 mo in the 3 dogs that survived. Although no changes were observed in the electrocardiogram and blood pressure, there was a significant increase in peak velocity of aortic flow 3 mo after stem cell transplantation. Pre-ejection period, isovolumic relaxation time, and the Tei index of myocardial performance were reduced significantly 4 mo after the procedure. All significant changes persisted to the end of the study. The results suggest that the transplantation of autologous bone-marrow-derived stem cells into the coronary arteries of dogs with Chagas cardiomyopathy may have a beneficial effect but the small number of dogs studied was a limitation.

Parâmetros biológicos e tabela de vida de Tetranychus urticae (Acari: Tetranychidae) em cultivares de mamão

Este trabalho foi realizado para avaliar o desenvolvimento e reprodução de Tetranychus urticae em cultivares comerciais de mamão Carica papaya. Foram utilizadas cultivares do grupo Formosa (Tainung 01 e Calimosa) e do grupo Solo (Golden e Sunrise). Para iniciar o bioensaio, foi transferida uma fêmea fertilizada por disco de folha (n=50 repetições) e retirado após um período de 12h, sendo avaliada a cada 12h, registrando-se o período de incubação, duração do estágio de imaturo, longevidade e fecundidade dos adultos e viabilidade desses estágios. Os resultados indicaram que as cultivares de mamão Tainung 01, Calimosa, Sunrise e Golden são bons hospedeiros para T. urticae. O parâmetro viabilidade não sofreu influência das cultivares em todas as fases de desenvolvimento avaliadas, apresentando valores superiores a 90%. Não houve diferença estatística entre as cultivares nos parâmetros: período de pre-oviposição e viabilidade dos ovos. A cultivar Tainung 01 apresentou menor potencial hospedeiro, embora houvesse menor duração nos estágios de ovo, larva, protoninfa e ovo-adulto. Nos parâmetros de tabela de vida e fertilidade, apresentou menores valores de Ro, r m e λ e maior valor de Td. Entre as cultivares, o Sunrise apresentou um elevado potencial hospedeiro para T. urticae, pois essa cultivar proporcionou a maior produção de ovos por fêmea, maior longevidade das fêmeas, bem como a maior taxa de reprodução (maior Ro, r m e λ e menor valor de Td).

Biologia de Leptopharsa heveae Drake & Poor (Heteroptera: Tingidae) e a relação de suas exigências térmicas com a flutuação populacional em seringueira

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)