Proliferation index in ductal carcinoma in situ of the breast: Relation to estrogen, progesterone and HER2/neu receptors

Background. Ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) is the most prevalent precursor to invasive breast cancer (IBC), the second leading cause of death in women in the United States. The three most important prognostic markers for IBC are Estrogen receptor (ER), Progesterone receptor (PR) and HER2/neu. The four groups (IBC) defined as (1) ER and/or PR positive and HER2/neu negative, (2) ER and/or PR positive and HER2/neu positive (3) ER and/or PR negative and HER2/neu positive and (4) negative for all three of these receptors (Triple negative). However, they have not been well studied in DCIS. This is an exploratory study with a primary objective to examine the prevalence of ER, PR, and HER2/neu in DCIS, to explore if the defined groups of IBC occur in DCIS and to consider the biological relationship between these four groups and the proliferative activity of the tumor. A secondary goal of this study is to examine the relationship between grade and proliferative activity. Methods. Using immunohistochemistry, I have measured Ki-67, ER, PR and HER2/neu positivity for a series of cases of DCIS. Results. 20 ER and/or PR positive and HER2/neu negative (50%) with average PI of 0.05, 7 ER and/or PR positive and HER2/neu positive (17.5%) with average PI of 0.14, 10 ER and/or PR negative and HER2/neu positive (25%) with average PI of 0.18, and three triple negative (7.5%) with average PI of 0.18. ER and/or PR positive and HER2/neu positive group has the highest PI (p<0.001). Further, the ER and/or PR positive and HER2/neu positive group show a linear relationship between PI and average ER/PR positivity (R=0.6). PI increases with higher grades. Conclusion. PI appears to depend upon the average fraction of positive ER/PR tumor cells, possibly with a synergistic dependence when HER2/neu is positive. If ER/PR is negative, then both HER2/neu positive and the triple negative cases appear to cluster around an average PI that is higher than the average PI in HER2/neu negative ER/PR positive negative cases. In the triple negative tumors there must be another driver of proliferation.^

HIV prevalence and contextual risk-factors among injection drug users in Harris County, Texas

Injection drug use is the third most frequent risk factor for new HIV infections in the United States. A dual mode of exposure: unsafe drug using practices and risky sexual behaviors underlies injection drug users' (IDUs) risk for HIV infection. This research study aims to characterize patterns of drug use and sexual behaviors and to examine the social contexts associated with risk behaviors among a sample of injection drug users. ^ This cross-sectional study includes 523 eligible injection drug users from Houston, Texas, recruited into the 2009 National HIV Behavioral Surveillance project. Three separate set of analyses were carried out. First, using latent class analysis (LCA) and maximum likelihood we identified classes of behavior describing levels of HIV risk, from nine drug and sexual behaviors. Second, eight separate multivariable regression models were built to examine the odds of reporting a given risk behavior. We constructed the most parsimonious multivariable model using a manual backward stepwise process. Third, we examined whether HIV serostatus knowledge (self-reported positive, negative, or unknown serostatus) is associated with drug use and sexual HIV risk behaviors. ^ Participants were mostly male, older, and non-Hispanic Black. Forty-two percent of our sample had behaviors putting them at high risk, 25% at moderate risk, and 33% at low risk for HIV infection. Individuals in the High-risk group had the highest probability of risky behaviors, categorized as almost always sharing needles (0.93), seldom using condoms (0.10), reporting recent exchange sex partners (0.90), and practicing anal sex (0.34). We observed that unsafe injecting practices were associated with high risk sexual behaviors. IDUs who shared needles had higher odds of having anal sex (OR=2.89, 95%CI: 1.69-4.92) and unprotected sex (OR=2.66, 95%CI: 1.38-5.10) at last sex. Additionally, homelessness was associated with needle sharing (OR=2.24, 95% CI: 1.34-3.76) and cocaine use was associated with multiple sex partners (OR=1.82, 95% CI: 1.07-3.11). Furthermore, twenty-one percent of the sample was unaware of their HIV serostatus. The three groups were not different from each other in terms of drug-use behaviors: always using a new sterile needle, or in sharing needles or drug preparation equipment. However, IDUs unaware of their HIV serostatus were 33% more likely to report having more than three sexual partners in the past 12 months; 45% more likely to report to have unprotected sex and 85% more likely to use drug and or alcohol during or before at last sex compared to HIV-positive IDUs. ^ This analysis underscores the merit of LCA approach to empirically categorize injection drug users into distinct classes and identify their risk pattern using multiple indicators and our results show considerable overlap of high risk sexual and drug use behaviors among the high-risk class members. The observed clustering pattern of drug and sexual risk behavior among this population confirms that injection drug users do not represent a homogeneous population in terms of HIV risk. These findings will help develop tailored prevention programs.^

Variability of the Brazil Current during the late Holocene analysed on two marine sediment cores

Our understanding of the centennial-scale variability of the Brazil Current (BC) during the late Holocene is elusive because of the lack of appropriate records. Here we used the Mg/Ca and oxygen isotopic composition of planktonic foraminifera from two marine sediment cores collected at 27° S and 33° S off southeastern South America to assess the late Holocene variability in the upper water column of the BC. Our results show in phase fluctuations of up to 3 °C in sea surface temperatures (SST), and 0.8 per mil in oxygen isotopic composition of surface sea water, a proxy for relative sea surface salinity (SSS). Time-series analyses of our records indicate a cyclicity with a period of ca. 730 yr. We suggest that the observed cyclicity reflects variability in the strength of the BC associated to changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Positive (negative) SST and SSS anomalies are related to a strong (weak) BC and a weak (strong) AMOC. Moreover, periods of peak strength in the BC occur synchronously to a weak North Brazil Current, negative SST anomalies in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic, and positive (negative) precipitation anomalies over southeastern South America (equatorial Africa), further corroborating our hypothesis. This study shows a tight coupling between the variability of the BC and the high latitudes of the North Atlantic mediated by the AMOC even under late Holocene boundary conditions.

Hybrid Approach Combining Machine Learning and a Rule-Based Expert System for Text Categorization

This paper discusses a novel hybrid approach for text categorization that combines a machine learning algorithm, which provides a base model trained with a labeled corpus, with a rule-based expert system, which is used to improve the results provided by the previous classifier, by filtering false positives and dealing with false negatives. The main advantage is that the system can be easily fine-tuned by adding specific rules for those noisy or conflicting categories that have not been successfully trained. We also describe an implementation based on k-Nearest Neighbor and a simple rule language to express lists of positive, negative and relevant (multiword) terms appearing in the input text. The system is evaluated in several scenarios, including the popular Reuters-21578 news corpus for comparison to other approaches, and categorization using IPTC metadata, EUROVOC thesaurus and others. Results show that this approach achieves a precision that is comparable to top ranked methods, with the added value that it does not require a demanding human expert workload to train

Towards a unified sentiment lexicon based on graphics processing units

This paper presents an approach to create what we have called a Unified Sentiment Lexicon (USL). This approach aims at aligning, unifying, and expanding the set of sentiment lexicons which are available on the web in order to increase their robustness of coverage. One problem related to the task of the automatic unification of different scores of sentiment lexicons is that there are multiple lexical entries for which the classification of positive, negative, or neutral {P, Z, N} depends on the unit of measurement used in the annotation methodology of the source sentiment lexicon. Our USL approach computes the unified strength of polarity of each lexical entry based on the Pearson correlation coefficient which measures how correlated lexical entries are with a value between 1 and -1, where 1 indicates that the lexical entries are perfectly correlated, 0 indicates no correlation, and -1 means they are perfectly inversely correlated and so is the UnifiedMetrics procedure for CPU and GPU, respectively. Another problem is the high processing time required for computing all the lexical entries in the unification task. Thus, the USL approach computes a subset of lexical entries in each of the 1344 GPU cores and uses parallel processing in order to unify 155802 lexical entries. The results of the analysis conducted using the USL approach show that the USL has 95.430 lexical entries, out of which there are 35.201 considered to be positive, 22.029 negative, and 38.200 neutral. Finally, the runtime was 10 minutes for 95.430 lexical entries; this allows a reduction of the time computing for the UnifiedMetrics by 3 times.

Justice, emotions and satisfaction in complaint behavior in services

This study proposes a marketing approach to service recovery (SR) models in order to help to explain what factors affect cumulative satisfaction, loyalty and word-of-mouth following complaint behavior. The model has its base on the definition of perceived justice and its influence on satisfaction with service recovery (SSR) and on emotions (positive and negative). Trust acts as a central construct in the model, receiving influence from the affective and cognitive aspect and mediating the relationship between SSR and cumulative satisfaction and between positive/negative emotions and loyalty. The sample for this study consists of 303 Spanish B2C-EC users who made a complaint after an electronic transaction. Results from the analysis show the influence of perceived justice ?mainly interactional justice and procedural justice? on SSR, and the relevance of positive emotions as a key factor in SSR processes, in contrast to the major role which negative emotions have traditionally played in these models. Furthermore, trust mediates the relation between SSR and cumulative satisfaction, and is the factor which has a higher influence on loyalty, whilst cumulative satisfaction becomes the more relevant factor affecting WOM.

Hacia un Lexicón Unificado de Sentimientos basado en Unidades de Procesamiento Gráfico

Esta tesis presenta un modelo, una metodología, una arquitectura, varios algoritmos y programas para crear un lexicón de sentimientos unificado (LSU) que cubre cuatro lenguas: inglés, español, portugués y chino. El objetivo principal es alinear, unificar, y expandir el conjunto de lexicones de sentimientos disponibles en Internet y los desarrollados a lo largo de esta investigación. Así, el principal problema a resolver es la tarea de unificar de forma automatizada los diferentes lexicones de sentimientos obtenidos por el crawler CSR, porque la unidad de medida para asignar la intensidad de los valores de la polaridad (de forma manual, semiautomática y automática) varía de acuerdo con las diferentes metodologías utilizadas para la construcción de cada lexicón. La representación codificada de la estructura de datos de los términos presenta también una variación en la estructura de lexicón a lexicón. Por lo que al unificar en un lexicón de sentimientos se hace posible la reutilización del conocimiento recopilado por los diferentes grupos de investigación y se incrementa, a la vez, el alcance, la calidad y la robustez de los lexicones. Nuestra metodología LSU calcula un valor unificado de la intensidad de la polaridad para cada entrada léxica que está presente en al menos dos de los lexicones de sentimientos que forman parte de este estudio. En contraste, las entradas léxicas que no son comunes en al menos dos de los lexicones conservan su valor original. El coeficiente de Pearson resultante permite medir la correlación existente entre las entradas léxicas asignándoles un rango de valores de uno a menos uno, donde uno indica que los valores de los términos están perfectamente correlacionados, cero indica que no existe correlación y menos uno significa que están inversamente correlacionados. Este procedimiento se lleva acabo con la función de MetricasUnificadas tanto en la CPU como en la GPU. Otro problema a resolver es el tiempo de procesamiento que se requiere para realizar la tarea de unificación de la intensidad de la polaridad y con ello alcanzar una cobertura mayor de lemas en los lexicones de sentimientos existentes. Asimismo, la metodología LSU utiliza el procesamiento paralelo para unificar los 155 802 términos. El algoritmo LSU procesa mediante cargas iguales el subconjunto de entradas léxicas en cada uno de los 1344 núcleos en la GPU. Los resultados de nuestro análisis arrojaron un total de 95 430 entradas léxicas donde 35 201 obtuvieron valores positivos, 22 029 negativos y 38 200 neutrales. Finalmente, el tiempo de ejecución fue de 2,506 segundos para el total de las entradas léxicas, lo que permitió reducir el procesamiento de cómputo hasta en una tercera parte con respecto al algoritmo secuencial. De estos resultados se concluye que al lograr un lexicón de sentimientos unificado que permite homogeneizar la intensidad de la polaridad de las unidades léxicas (con valores positivos, negativos y neutrales) deriva no sólo en el análisis semántico del corpus basado en los términos con una mayor carga de polaridad, o del resumen de las valoraciones o las tendencias de neuromarketing, sino también en aplicaciones como el etiquetado subjetivo de sitios web o de portales sintácticos y semánticos, por mencionar algunas. ABSTRACT This thesis presents an approach to create what we have called a Unified Sentiment Lexicon (USL). This approach aims at aligning, unifying, and expanding the set of sentiment lexicons which are available on the web in order to increase their robustness of coverage. One problem related to the task of the automatic unification of different scores of sentiment lexicons is that there are multiple lexical entries for which the classification of positive, negative, or neutral P, N, Z depends on the unit of measurement used in the annotation methodology of the source sentiment lexicon. Our USL approach computes the unified strength of polarity of each lexical entry based on the Pearson correlation coefficient which measures how correlated lexical entries are with a value between 1 and - 1 , where 1 indicates that the lexical entries are perfectly correlated, 0 indicates no correlation, and -1 means they are perfectly inversely correlated and so is the UnifiedMetrics procedure for CPU and GPU, respectively. Another problem is the high processing time required for computing all the lexical entries in the unification task. Thus, the USL approach computes a subset of lexical entries in each of the 1344 GPU cores and uses parallel processing in order to unify 155,802 lexical entries. The results of the analysis conducted using the USL approach show that the USL has 95,430 lexical entries, out of which there are 35,201 considered to be positive, 22,029 negative, and 38,200 neutral. Finally, the runtime was 2.505 seconds for 95,430 lexical entries; this allows a reduction of the time computing for the UnifiedMetrics by 3 times with respect to the sequential implementation. A key contribution of this work is that we preserve the use of a unified sentiment lexicon for all tasks. Such lexicon is used to define resources and resource-related properties that can be verified based on the results of the analysis and is powerful, general and extensible enough to express a large class of interesting properties. Some applications of this work include merging, aligning, pruning and extending the current sentiment lexicons.

Climate variability effects on field crops in Iberian Peninsula. Predictability

La presente Tesis constituye un avance en el conocimiento de los efectos de la variabilidad climática en los cultivos en la Península Ibérica (PI). Es bien conocido que la temperatura del océano, particularmente de la región tropical, es una de las variables más convenientes para ser utilizado como predictor climático. Los océanos son considerados como la principal fuente de almacenamiento de calor del planeta debido a la alta capacidad calorífica del agua. Cuando se libera esta energía, altera los regímenes globales de circulación atmosférica por mecanismos de teleconexión. Estos cambios en la circulación general de la atmósfera afectan a la temperatura, precipitación, humedad, viento, etc., a escala regional, los cuales afectan al crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos. Para el caso de Europa, esto implica que la variabilidad atmosférica en una región específica se asocia con la variabilidad de otras regiones adyacentes y/o remotas, como consecuencia Europa está siendo afectada por los patrones de circulaciones globales, que a su vez, se ven afectados por patrones oceánicos. El objetivo general de esta tesis es analizar la variabilidad del rendimiento de los cultivos y su relación con la variabilidad climática y teleconexiones, así como evaluar su predictibilidad. Además, esta Tesis tiene como objetivo establecer una metodología para estudiar la predictibilidad de las anomalías del rendimiento de los cultivos. El análisis se centra en trigo y maíz como referencia para otros cultivos de la PI, cultivos de invierno en secano y cultivos de verano en regadío respectivamente. Experimentos de simulación de cultivos utilizando una metodología en cadena de modelos (clima + cultivos) son diseñados para evaluar los impactos de los patrones de variabilidad climática en el rendimiento y su predictibilidad. La presente Tesis se estructura en dos partes: La primera se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del clima y la segunda es una aplicación de predicción cuantitativa de cosechas. La primera parte está dividida en 3 capítulos y la segundo en un capitulo cubriendo los objetivos específicos del presente trabajo de investigación. Parte I. Análisis de variabilidad climática El primer capítulo muestra un análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento potencial en una localidad como indicador bioclimático de las teleconexiones de El Niño con Europa, mostrando su importancia en la mejora de predictibilidad tanto en clima como en agricultura. Además, se presenta la metodología elegida para relacionar el rendimiento con las variables atmosféricas y oceánicas. El rendimiento de los cultivos es parcialmente determinado por la variabilidad climática atmosférica, que a su vez depende de los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar (TSM). El Niño es el principal modo de variabilidad interanual de la TSM, y sus efectos se extienden en todo el mundo. Sin embargo, la predictibilidad de estos impactos es controversial, especialmente aquellos asociados con la variabilidad climática Europea, que se ha encontrado que es no estacionaria y no lineal. Este estudio mostró cómo el rendimiento potencial de los cultivos obtenidos a partir de datos de reanálisis y modelos de cultivos sirve como un índice alternativo y más eficaz de las teleconexiones de El Niño, ya que integra las no linealidades entre las variables climáticas en una única serie temporal. Las relaciones entre El Niño y las anomalías de rendimiento de los cultivos son más significativas que las contribuciones individuales de cada una de las variables atmosféricas utilizadas como entrada en el modelo de cultivo. Además, la no estacionariedad entre El Niño y la variabilidad climática europea se detectan con mayor claridad cuando se analiza la variabilidad de los rendimiento de los cultivos. La comprensión de esta relación permite una cierta predictibilidad hasta un año antes de la cosecha del cultivo. Esta predictibilidad no es constante, sino que depende tanto la modulación de la alta y baja frecuencia. En el segundo capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de verano en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de maíz en la PI para todo el siglo veinte, usando un modelo de cultivo calibrado en 5 localidades españolas y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento potencial. Este estudio evalúa el uso de datos de reanálisis para obtener series de rendimiento de cultivos que dependen solo del clima, y utilizar estos rendimientos para analizar la influencia de los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos. Los resultados muestran una gran fiabilidad de los datos de reanálisis. La distribución espacial asociada a la primera componente principal de la variabilidad del rendimiento muestra un comportamiento similar en todos los lugares estudiados de la PI. Se observa una alta correlación lineal entre el índice de El Niño y el rendimiento, pero no es estacionaria en el tiempo. Sin embargo, la relación entre la temperatura del aire y el rendimiento se mantiene constante a lo largo del tiempo, siendo los meses de mayor influencia durante el período de llenado del grano. En cuanto a los patrones atmosféricos, el patrón Escandinavia presentó una influencia significativa en el rendimiento en PI. En el tercer capítulo se identifica los patrones oceánicos y atmosféricos de variabilidad climática que afectan a los cultivos de invierno en la PI. Además, se presentan hipótesis acerca del mecanismo eco-fisiológico a través del cual el cultivo responde. Este estudio se centra en el análisis de la variabilidad del rendimiento de trigo en secano del Noreste (NE) de la PI. La variabilidad climática es el principal motor de los cambios en el crecimiento, desarrollo y rendimiento de los cultivos, especialmente en los sistemas de producción en secano. En la PI, los rendimientos de trigo son fuertemente dependientes de la cantidad de precipitación estacional y la distribución temporal de las mismas durante el periodo de crecimiento del cultivo. La principal fuente de variabilidad interanual de la precipitación en la PI es la Oscilación del Atlántico Norte (NAO), que se ha relacionado, en parte, con los cambios en la temperatura de la superficie del mar en el Pacífico Tropical (El Niño) y el Atlántico Tropical (TNA). La existencia de cierta predictibilidad nos ha animado a analizar la posible predicción de los rendimientos de trigo en la PI utilizando anomalías de TSM como predictor. Para ello, se ha utilizado un modelo de cultivo (calibrado en dos localidades del NE de la PI) y datos climáticos de reanálisis para obtener series temporales largas de rendimiento de trigo alcanzable y relacionar su variabilidad con anomalías de la TSM. Los resultados muestran que El Niño y la TNA influyen en el desarrollo y rendimiento del trigo en el NE de la PI, y estos impactos depende del estado concurrente de la NAO. Aunque la relación cultivo-TSM no es igual durante todo el periodo analizado, se puede explicar por un mecanismo eco-fisiológico estacionario. Durante la segunda mitad del siglo veinte, el calentamiento (enfriamiento) en la superficie del Atlántico tropical se asocia a una fase negativa (positiva) de la NAO, que ejerce una influencia positiva (negativa) en la temperatura mínima y precipitación durante el invierno y, por lo tanto, aumenta (disminuye) el rendimiento de trigo en la PI. En relación con El Niño, la correlación más alta se observó en el período 1981 -2001. En estas décadas, los altos (bajos) rendimientos se asocian con una transición El Niño - La Niña (La Niña - El Niño) o con eventos de El Niño (La Niña) que están finalizando. Para estos eventos, el patrón atmosférica asociada se asemeja a la NAO, que también influye directamente en la temperatura máxima y precipitación experimentadas por el cultivo durante la floración y llenado de grano. Los co- efectos de los dos patrones de teleconexión oceánicos ayudan a aumentar (disminuir) la precipitación y a disminuir (aumentar) la temperatura máxima en PI, por lo tanto el rendimiento de trigo aumenta (disminuye). Parte II. Predicción de cultivos. En el último capítulo se analiza los beneficios potenciales del uso de predicciones climáticas estacionales (por ejemplo de precipitación) en las predicciones de rendimientos de trigo y maíz, y explora métodos para aplicar dichos pronósticos climáticos en modelos de cultivo. Las predicciones climáticas estacionales tienen un gran potencial en las predicciones de cultivos, contribuyendo de esta manera a una mayor eficiencia de la gestión agrícola, seguridad alimentaria y de subsistencia. Los pronósticos climáticos se expresan en diferentes formas, sin embargo todos ellos son probabilísticos. Para ello, se evalúan y aplican dos métodos para desagregar las predicciones climáticas estacionales en datos diarios: 1) un generador climático estocástico condicionado (predictWTD) y 2) un simple re-muestreador basado en las probabilidades del pronóstico (FResampler1). Los dos métodos se evaluaron en un caso de estudio en el que se analizaron los impactos de tres escenarios de predicciones de precipitación estacional (predicción seco, medio y lluvioso) en el rendimiento de trigo en secano, sobre las necesidades de riego y rendimiento de maíz en la PI. Además, se estimó el margen bruto y los riesgos de la producción asociada con las predicciones de precipitación estacional extremas (seca y lluviosa). Los métodos predWTD y FResampler1 usados para desagregar los pronósticos de precipitación estacional en datos diarios, que serán usados como inputs en los modelos de cultivos, proporcionan una predicción comparable. Por lo tanto, ambos métodos parecen opciones factibles/viables para la vinculación de los pronósticos estacionales con modelos de simulación de cultivos para establecer predicciones de rendimiento o las necesidades de riego en el caso de maíz. El análisis del impacto en el margen bruto de los precios del grano de los dos cultivos (trigo y maíz) y el coste de riego (maíz) sugieren que la combinación de los precios de mercado previstos y la predicción climática estacional pueden ser una buena herramienta en la toma de decisiones de los agricultores, especialmente en predicciones secas y/o localidades con baja precipitación anual. Estos métodos permiten cuantificar los beneficios y riesgos de los agricultores ante una predicción climática estacional en la PI. Por lo tanto, seríamos capaces de establecer sistemas de alerta temprana y diseñar estrategias de adaptación del manejo del cultivo para aprovechar las condiciones favorables o reducir los efectos de condiciones adversas. La utilidad potencial de esta Tesis es la aplicación de las relaciones encontradas para predicción de cosechas de la próxima campaña agrícola. Una correcta predicción de los rendimientos podría ayudar a los agricultores a planear con antelación sus prácticas agronómicas y todos los demás aspectos relacionados con el manejo de los cultivos. Esta metodología se puede utilizar también para la predicción de las tendencias futuras de la variabilidad del rendimiento en la PI. Tanto los sectores públicos (mejora de la planificación agrícola) como privados (agricultores, compañías de seguros agrarios) pueden beneficiarse de esta mejora en la predicción de cosechas. ABSTRACT The present thesis constitutes a step forward in advancing of knowledge of the effects of climate variability on crops in the Iberian Peninsula (IP). It is well known that ocean temperature, particularly the tropical ocean, is one of the most convenient variables to be used as climate predictor. Oceans are considered as the principal heat storage of the planet due to the high heat capacity of water. When this energy is released, it alters the global atmospheric circulation regimes by teleconnection1 mechanisms. These changes in the general circulation of the atmosphere affect the regional temperature, precipitation, moisture, wind, etc., and those influence crop growth, development and yield. For the case of Europe, this implies that the atmospheric variability in a specific region is associated with the variability of others adjacent and/or remote regions as a consequence of Europe being affected by global circulations patterns which, in turn, are affected by oceanic patterns. The general objective of this Thesis is to analyze the variability of crop yields at climate time scales and its relation to the climate variability and teleconnections, as well as to evaluate their predictability. Moreover, this Thesis aims to establish a methodology to study the predictability of crop yield anomalies. The analysis focuses on wheat and maize as a reference crops for other field crops in the IP, for winter rainfed crops and summer irrigated crops respectively. Crop simulation experiments using a model chain methodology (climate + crop) are designed to evaluate the impacts of climate variability patterns on yield and its predictability. The present Thesis is structured in two parts. The first part is focused on the climate variability analyses, and the second part is an application of the quantitative crop forecasting for years that fulfill specific conditions identified in the first part. This Thesis is divided into 4 chapters, covering the specific objectives of the present research work. Part I. Climate variability analyses The first chapter shows an analysis of potential yield variability in one location, as a bioclimatic indicator of the El Niño teleconnections with Europe, putting forward its importance for improving predictability in both climate and agriculture. It also presents the chosen methodology to relate yield with atmospheric and oceanic variables. Crop yield is partially determined by atmospheric climate variability, which in turn depends on changes in the sea surface temperature (SST). El Niño is the leading mode of SST interannual variability, and its impacts extend worldwide. Nevertheless, the predictability of these impacts is controversial, especially those associated with European climate variability, which have been found to be non-stationary and non-linear. The study showed how potential2 crop yield obtained from reanalysis data and crop models serves as an alternative and more effective index of El Niño teleconnections because it integrates the nonlinearities between the climate variables in a unique time series. The relationships between El Niño and crop yield anomalies are more significant than the individual contributions of each of the atmospheric variables used as input in the crop model. Additionally, the non-stationarities between El Niño and European climate variability are more clearly detected when analyzing crop-yield variability. The understanding of this relationship allows for some predictability up to one year before the crop is harvested. This predictability is not constant, but depends on both high and low frequency modulation. The second chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting summer cropping systems in the IP. Moreover, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of maize yield variability in IP for the whole twenty century, using a calibrated crop model at five contrasting Spanish locations and reanalyses climate datasets to obtain long time series of potential yield. The study tests the use of reanalysis data for obtaining only climate dependent time series of simulated crop yield for the whole region, and to use these yield to analyze the influences of oceanic and atmospheric patterns. The results show a good reliability of reanalysis data. The spatial distribution of the leading principal component of yield variability shows a similar behaviour over all the studied locations in the IP. The strong linear correlation between El Niño index and yield is remarkable, being this relation non-stationary on time, although the air temperature-yield relationship remains on time, being the highest influences during grain filling period. Regarding atmospheric patterns, the summer Scandinavian pattern has significant influence on yield in IP. The third chapter identifies the oceanic and atmospheric patterns of climate variability affecting winter cropping systems in the IP. Also, hypotheses about the eco-physiological mechanism behind crop response are presented. It is focused on an analysis of rainfed wheat yield variability in IP. Climate variability is the main driver of changes in crop growth, development and yield, especially for rainfed production systems. In IP, wheat yields are strongly dependent on seasonal rainfall amount and temporal distribution of rainfall during the growing season. The major source of precipitation interannual variability in IP is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) which has been related in part with changes in the Tropical Pacific (El Niño) and Atlantic (TNA) sea surface temperature (SST). The existence of some predictability has encouraged us to analyze the possible predictability of the wheat yield in the IP using SSTs anomalies as predictor. For this purpose, a crop model with a site specific calibration for the Northeast of IP and reanalysis climate datasets have been used to obtain long time series of attainable wheat yield and relate their variability with SST anomalies. The results show that El Niño and TNA influence rainfed wheat development and yield in IP and these impacts depend on the concurrent state of the NAO. Although crop-SST relationships do not equally hold on during the whole analyzed period, they can be explained by an understood and stationary ecophysiological mechanism. During the second half of the twenty century, the positive (negative) TNA index is associated to a negative (positive) phase of NAO, which exerts a positive (negative) influence on minimum temperatures (Tmin) and precipitation (Prec) during winter and, thus, yield increases (decreases) in IP. In relation to El Niño, the highest correlation takes place in the period 1981-2001. For these decades, high (low) yields are associated with an El Niño to La Niña (La Niña to El Niño) transitions or to El Niño events finishing. For these events, the regional associated atmospheric pattern resembles the NAO, which also influences directly on the maximum temperatures (Tmax) and precipitation experienced by the crop during flowering and grain filling. The co-effects of the two teleconnection patterns help to increase (decrease) the rainfall and decrease (increase) Tmax in IP, thus on increase (decrease) wheat yield. Part II. Crop forecasting The last chapter analyses the potential benefits for wheat and maize yields prediction from using seasonal climate forecasts (precipitation), and explores methods to apply such a climate forecast to crop models. Seasonal climate prediction has significant potential to contribute to the efficiency of agricultural management, and to food and livelihood security. Climate forecasts come in different forms, but probabilistic. For this purpose, two methods were evaluated and applied for disaggregating seasonal climate forecast into daily weather realizations: 1) a conditioned stochastic weather generator (predictWTD) and 2) a simple forecast probability resampler (FResampler1). The two methods were evaluated in a case study where the impacts of three scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts on rainfed wheat yield, on irrigation requirements and yields of maize in IP were analyzed. In addition, we estimated the economic margins and production risks associated with extreme scenarios of seasonal rainfall forecasts (dry and wet). The predWTD and FResampler1 methods used for disaggregating seasonal rainfall forecast into daily data needed by the crop simulation models provided comparable predictability. Therefore both methods seem feasible options for linking seasonal forecasts with crop simulation models for establishing yield forecasts or irrigation water requirements. The analysis of the impact on gross margin of grain prices for both crops and maize irrigation costs suggests the combination of market prices expected and the seasonal climate forecast can be a good tool in farmer’s decision-making, especially on dry forecast and/or in locations with low annual precipitation. These methodologies would allow quantifying the benefits and risks of a seasonal weather forecast to farmers in IP. Therefore, we would be able to establish early warning systems and to design crop management adaptation strategies that take advantage of favorable conditions or reduce the effect of adverse conditions. The potential usefulness of this Thesis is to apply the relationships found to crop forecasting on the next cropping season, suggesting opportunity time windows for the prediction. The methodology can be used as well for the prediction of future trends of IP yield variability. Both public (improvement of agricultural planning) and private (decision support to farmers, insurance companies) sectors may benefit from such an improvement of crop forecasting.

Field and laboratory performance evaluation of a field-blended rubber asphalt.

ALICE is one of four major experiments of particle accelerator LHC installed in the European laboratory CERN. The management committee of the LHC accelerator has just approved a program update for this experiment. Among the upgrades planned for the coming years of the ALICE experiment is to improve the resolution and tracking efficiency maintaining the excellent particles identification ability, and to increase the read-out event rate to 100 KHz. In order to achieve this, it is necessary to update the Time Projection Chamber detector (TPC) and Muon tracking (MCH) detector modifying the read-out electronics, which is not suitable for this migration. To overcome this limitation the design, fabrication and experimental test of new ASIC named SAMPA has been proposed . This ASIC will support both positive and negative polarities, with 32 channels per chip and continuous data readout with smaller power consumption than the previous versions. This work aims to design, fabrication and experimental test of a readout front-end in 130nm CMOS technology with configurable polarity (positive/negative), peaking time and sensitivity. The new SAMPA ASIC can be used in both chambers (TPC and MCH). The proposed front-end is composed of a Charge Sensitive Amplifier (CSA) and a Semi-Gaussian shaper. In order to obtain an ASIC integrating 32 channels per chip, the design of the proposed front-end requires small area and low power consumption, but at the same time requires low noise. In this sense, a new Noise and PSRR (Power Supply Rejection Ratio) improvement technique for the CSA design without power and area impact is proposed in this work. The analysis and equations of the proposed circuit are presented which were verified by electrical simulations and experimental test of a produced chip with 5 channels of the designed front-end. The measured equivalent noise charge was <550e for 30mV/fC of sensitivity at a input capacitance of 18.5pF. The total core area of the front-end was 2300?m × 150?m, and the measured total power consumption was 9.1mW per channel.

Noise and PSRR improvement technique for TPC readout front-end in CMOS. technology.

ALICE is one of four major experiments of particle accelerator LHC installed in the European laboratory CERN. The management committee of the LHC accelerator has just approved a program update for this experiment. Among the upgrades planned for the coming years of the ALICE experiment is to improve the resolution and tracking efficiency maintaining the excellent particles identification ability, and to increase the read-out event rate to 100 KHz. In order to achieve this, it is necessary to update the Time Projection Chamber detector (TPC) and Muon tracking (MCH) detector modifying the read-out electronics, which is not suitable for this migration. To overcome this limitation the design, fabrication and experimental test of new ASIC named SAMPA has been proposed . This ASIC will support both positive and negative polarities, with 32 channels per chip and continuous data readout with smaller power consumption than the previous versions. This work aims to design, fabrication and experimental test of a readout front-end in 130nm CMOS technology with configurable polarity (positive/negative), peaking time and sensitivity. The new SAMPA ASIC can be used in both chambers (TPC and MCH). The proposed front-end is composed of a Charge Sensitive Amplifier (CSA) and a Semi-Gaussian shaper. In order to obtain an ASIC integrating 32 channels per chip, the design of the proposed front-end requires small area and low power consumption, but at the same time requires low noise. In this sense, a new Noise and PSRR (Power Supply Rejection Ratio) improvement technique for the CSA design without power and area impact is proposed in this work. The analysis and equations of the proposed circuit are presented which were verified by electrical simulations and experimental test of a produced chip with 5 channels of the designed front-end. The measured equivalent noise charge was <550e for 30mV/fC of sensitivity at a input capacitance of 18.5pF. The total core area of the front-end was 2300?m × 150?m, and the measured total power consumption was 9.1mW per channel.

Australian water mass variations from GRACE data linked to Indo-Pacific climate variability

Time-variable gravity data from the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) mission are used to study total water content over Australia for the period 2002–2010. A time-varying annual signal explains 61% of the variance of the data, in good agreement with two independent estimates of the same quantity from hydrological models. Water mass content variations across Australia are linked to Pacific and Indian Ocean variability, associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), respectively. From 1989, positive (negative) IOD phases were related to anomalously low (high) precipitation in southeastern Australia, associated with a reduced (enhanced) tropical moisture flux. In particular, the sustained water mass content reduction over central and southern regions of Australia during the period 2006–2008 is associated with three consecutive positive IOD events.

The Role of Enjoyment and Motivational Climate in Relation to the Personal Development of Team Sport Athletes

Sport has been identified as a context in which youth encounter positive and negative experiences. However, relatively little is known about the factors that lead to positive and negative personal development among sport participants. The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of enjoyment and motivational climate on positive and negative personal development of team sport participants. A sample of 510 athletes between the ages of 9 and 19 completed questionnaires on positive and negative personal development, enjoyment, and motivational climate. Stepwise multiple regression analyses examined the effects of enjoyment and motivational climate on the personal development of the athletes. Results demonstrated that positive experiences in sport were most strongly predicted by affiliation with peers, self-referenced competency, effort expenditure, and a task climate. Negative experiences were most strongly predicted by an ego climate and other-referenced competency. Results suggest that creating an environment that encourages peer affiliation and personal achievement can result in the positive personal development of youth sport participants.

The moderating role of individual differences in the relation between transformational/transactional leadership perceptions and organizational identification

In this study, we examined the relationship between transformational/transactional leadership perceptions and organizational identification and further explored the moderating role of individual difference variables, such as separateness-connectedness self-schema, and positive and negative affectivity. Data from 502 services employees indicated significant positive effects of transformational and transactional leadership perceptions on organizational identification. Regarding the moderating role of individual differences, our data showed that the positive relationship of transformational leadership and organizational identification was stronger for individuals of low positive affectivity as well as for employees of high negative affectivity. In addition, results indicated that transactional leadership had a stronger positive effect on organizational identification for individuals characterized by a connected self-schema. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cognitive asymmetry in employee emotional reactions to leadership behaviors

This article is predicated on the idea that leaders shape workplace affective events. Based on Affective Events Theory (AET), I argue that leaders are sources of employee positive and negative emotions at work. Certain leader behaviors displayed during interactions with their employees are the sources of these affective events. The second theoretical underpinning of the article is the Asymmetry Effect of emotion. Consistent with this theory, employees are more likely to recall negative incidents than positive incidents. In a qualitative study, evidence that these processes exist in the workplace was found. Leader behaviors were sources of positive or negative emotional responses in employees; employees recalled more negative incidents than positive incidents, and they recalled them more intensely and in more detail than positive incidents. Consequently, leaders may need to exercise their emotional intelligence to generate emotional uplifts to overcome the hassles in the workplace that employees seem to remember so vividly. (c) 2006 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Smoking and schizophrenia: is symptom profile related to smoking and which antipsychotic medication is of benefit in reducing cigarette use?

Smoking rate is disproportionately high among patients with schizophrenia, resulting in significant morbidity and mortality. However, cigarette smoking has been reported to have beneficial effects on negative symptoms, extrapyramidal symptoms, cognitive functioning and mood symptoms. Therefore, smoking cessation may worsen disability in schizophrenia. The association between smoking and these key clinical parameters was examined. Additionally, severity of smoking across four different antipsychotic treatment groups was explored. One hundred and forty-six patients with schizophrenia were assessed for smoking using expired carbon monoxide and smoking history. They were administered the Positive and Negative Symptom Scale, The Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale, the Barnes Akathisia Rating Scale, Reitans Trail-making Test (A and B) and General Health Questionnaire-28. There was no difference in the chlorpromazine equivalent dose of any of the medications studied. Atypical agents were associated with significantly lower levels of smoking when compared with typical medications. There was no difference in smoking severity between the individual atypical medications examined. Similarly, there were no significant differences between smoking and non-smoking groups with regard to Positive and Negative Symptom Scale, Extrapyramidal Symptom Rating Scale, Trail-making Test and General Health Questionnaire-28. However, there was a significant difference between these groups with the smoking group demonstrating less akathisia. Smoking is not associated with positive, negative cognitive and mood symptoms in schizophrenia. Smoking is associated with lower levels of antipsychotic induced akathisia. Clinicians should not be discouraged from helping patients stop smoking for fear of worsening symptoms. However, akathisia may emerge upon cessation of smoking. Switching patients from typical to atypical antipsychotics may assist patients with schizophrenia to give up smoking.