Otimização de portfólio utilizando como métricas de retorno medidas de posição central

This paper consists in applying the Modern Theory of Portfolio (MPT) using central position measurements for modeling the return on investment fund of a renowned financial institution and compare with the Medium- CVaR model. The measurement of risks and returns becomes increasingly important for investors to minimize their losses to maximize thus their possibilities of earnings, taking into account sudden change scenarios. We present concepts of investment funds used as data and research on central position measurements to determine which measure was more suitable. To assemble the Efficient Frontier of assets considering the method proposed measure of central position-CVaR position is used MatLab. Then, after getting the Frontier, it was possible to compare it with the Medium-CVaR model, already proven effective. Finally, we analyze the viability of the proposed model in portfolio management

Análise da aplicação da gestão de projetos por corrente crítica nos processos de desenvolvimento de produtos e na gestão de portfólio de um fabricante de aeronaves

Pós-graduação em Engenharia de Produção - FEB

Gestão de portfólio de produtos: práticas adotadas por uma empresa de base tecnológica de médio porte localizada na cidade de São Carlos, SP

In the context of the product development process (PDP), portfolio management plays an important role by determing the set of products that a company uses to compete. Due to its characteristics, performing continuous technological forecasting activities for developing and transferring technologies to their products through the PDP, this tends to make portfolio management a complex activity for products at these companies. This paper’s objective was to identify practices for product portfolio management in a medium-sized technology-based firm located in São Carlos, SP. Qualitative research was used and it was operationalized through a case study. Among the main results, it was noted that decisions on product portfolio depend mainly on the perception of senior management and the financial analyzes constitute the main method used for supporting the decision.

Gestão de portfólio de produtos em pequenas empresas de base tecnológica

The product portfólio management is considered relevant activity to the proper performance of the product development process. This paper aims to present the main methods of management that technology-based small businesses adopt for decision-making in product portfolio. This survey, which collected data on 31 companies was conducted. It was observed that although firms adopt market research and mapping methods and financial methods and for this decision-making, most of them based on the informal deliberations of senior management. Unable to understand the business relationships between the presence of ISO 9001 certification with greater formalization for decision making in product portfolio.

Métodos para a tomada de decisão em portfólio de produtos: um levantamento em empresas dos setores eletrônico, óptico e de informática

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Ajuste e balanceamento do portfólio de projetos: o caso de uma empresa do setor químico

O objetivo deste trabalho é compreender a etapa de ajuste no contexto da gestão do portfólio de projetos, destacando sua relação com os processos de categorização e balanceamento. A pesquisa realizada tem caráter qualitativo, sendo a abordagem adotada o estudo de caso longitudinal. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida em uma empresa do setor químico brasileiro. As evidências, de várias fontes, foram coletadas através de entrevistas, documentos e dados dos sistemas corporativos. Para a compreensão do portfólio de projetos da empresa foram coletados e analisados dados de mil projetos realizados entre 2001 e 2005. Os resultados indicam que maior atenção é dada à etapa de seleção, negligenciando a etapa de ajuste. A adoção de ferramentas de balanceamento permitiu evidenciar lacunas e fontes de desbalanceamento no portfólio de projetos, promovendo o debate entre os tomadores de decisão no que concerne ao viés introduzido pelos critérios adotados na etapa de seleção e levantando a necessidade de introdução de uma sistemática de ajuste e balanceamento. Observou-se que sem uma adequada categorização dos projetos da empresa seria difícil promover a análise de balanceamento.

Modello di valutazione e selezione delle iniziative commerciali da inserire in portafoglio. Il caso Astaldi Group.

All’interno di questo elaborato di tesi verrà proposto un Modello di Valutazione e Selezione delle Iniziative commerciali, costruito nel corso dell’esperienza di stage presso la società Astaldi. Nella parte iniziale del lavoro, verranno presentati dei concetti teorici che costituiscono il presupposto e la base per la costruzione del Modello. Il background di riferimento è quello di un’azienda che lavora nel mondo delle costruzioni, sviluppando progetti complessi a livello internazionale. Nel primo capitolo, dopo una breve introduzione sul Project Management, si prenderà in esame l’ambiente multiproject, un ambiente nel quale gran parte delle aziende si trova ad operare e nel quale opera anche l’Astaldi. Successivamente, partendo da queste considerazioni legate all’ambiente multi-progetto, verranno descritte le potenzialità ed i vantaggi di un approccio Project Portfolio Management, come evoluzione naturale del Project Management. Nell’ambito del Project Portfolio Management, verrà analizzata l’importanza del processo di selezione dei progetti per la costruzione del portafoglio e le relative tecniche di selezione. Nel secondo capitolo verranno presentate le Misure e gli Indicatori di performance definiti in letteratura. Verranno anche introdotti dei possibili Indicatori di Valutazione, la cui misurazione è particolarmente legata al Project Life Cycle: questi verranno fatti propri all’interno del Modello presentato che darà come output, proprio un Indicatore di Valutazione ex-ante del progetto. Nel terzo capitolo verrà illustrata la società Astaldi al fine di comprendere il più possibile il contesto in cui e per cui si è costruito tale Modello. Nel quarto ed ultimo capitolo sarà analizzato il Modello stesso, descrivendo le modalità con cui è stato realizzato, le modalità operative per la sua applicazione ed alcuni esempi esplicativi del suo utilizzo.

Early termination of R&D projects

Early project termination is one of the most difficult decisions to be made by Research and Development managers. While there is the risk of terminating good projects, there is also the opposite risk of not terminating bad projects and overspend resources in unproductive research. Criteria used for identifying these projects are common subject of research in Business Administration. In addition, companies might take important lessons from its interrupted projects that could improve their overall portfolio technical and commercial success. Finally, the set and weight of criteria, as well as the procedures companies use for achieve learning from cancelled projects may vary depending on the project type. This research intends to contribute to the understanding of policies applied to projects that were once considered attractive, but by some reason is not appreciated anymore. The research addressed the question: How companies deal with projects that become unattractive? More specifically, this research tried to answer the following questions: (1) Are projects killed or (otherwise) they die naturally by lack of resources? (2) What criteria are used to terminate projects during development? (3) How companies learn from the terminated projects to improve the overall portfolio performance? (4) Are the criteria and learning procedures different for different types of projects? In order to answer these questions, we performed a multiple case study with four companies that are reference in business administration and innovation: (1) Oxiteno, considered the base case, (2) Natura, the literal replication, (3) Mahle and (4) AES, the theoretical replications. The case studies were performed using a semi-structured protocol for interviews, which were recorded and analyzed for comparison. We found that the criteria companies use for selecting projects for termination are very similar to those anticipated by the literature, except for a criteria related to compliance. We have evidences to confirm that the set of criteria is not altered when dealing with different project types, however the weight they are applied indeed varies. We also found that learning with cancelled projects is yet very incipient, with very few structured formal procedures being described for capturing learning with early-terminated projects. However, we could observe that these procedures are more common when dealing with projects labeled as innovative, risky, big and costly, while those smaller and cheaper derivative projects aren\'t subject of a complete investigation on the learning they brought to the company. For these, the most common learning route is the informal, where the project team learns and passes the knowledge though interpersonal information exchange. We explain that as a matter of cost versus benefit of spending time to deeply investigate projects with little potential to bring new knowledge to the project team and the organization

Aplicação de métodos computacionais multidisciplinares de engenharia para otimização de carteiras de investimentos.

Este trabalho apresenta uma nova metodologia para otimizar carteiras de ativos financeiros. A metodologia proposta, baseada em interpoladores universais tais quais as Redes Neurais Artificiais e a Krigagem, permite aproximar a superfície de risco e consequentemente a solução do problema de otimização associado a ela de forma generalizada e aplicável a qualquer medida de risco disponível na literatura. Além disto, a metodologia sugerida permite que sejam relaxadas hipóteses restritivas inerentes às metodologias existentes, simplificando o problema de otimização e permitindo que sejam estimados os erros na aproximação da superfície de risco. Ilustrativamente, aplica-se a metodologia proposta ao problema de composição de carteiras com a Variância (controle), o Valor-em-Risco (VaR) e o Valor-em-Risco Condicional (CVaR) como funções objetivo. Os resultados são comparados àqueles obtidos pelos modelos de Markowitz e Rockafellar, respectivamente.

Real estate research needs of the plan sponsor community:what do the plan sponsor real estate investment managers want to know?

This article reports the results of a web-based survey of real estate portfolio managers in the pension fund industry. The study focused on ascertaining the real estate research interests of the respondents as well as whether or not research funding should be allocated to various research topics. Performance measures of real estate assets and portfolios, microeconomic factors affecting real estate and the role of real estate in a mixed-asset portfolio were the top three real estate research interests. There was some variation by the type and size of fund providing evidence that segmentation is important within the money management industry. Respondents were also queried on more focused research subtopics and additional questions in the survey focused on satisfaction with existing real estate benchmarks, and perceptions of the usefulness of published research. Findings should be used to guide research practitioners and academics as to the most important research interests of plan sponsor real estate investment managers.

On the comparative performance of socially responsible and Islamic mutual funds

This is the first study to provide comprehensive analyses of the relative performance of both socially responsible investment (SRI) and Islamic mutual funds. The analysis proceeds in two stages. In the first, the performance of the two categories of funds is measured using partial frontier methods. In the second stage, we use quantile regression techniques.By combining two variants of the Free Disposal Hull (FDH) methods (order-m and order-?) in the first stage of analysis and quantile regression in the second stage, we provide detailed analyses of the impact of different covariates across methods and across different quantiles. In spite of the differences in the screening criteria and portfolio management of both types of funds, variation in the performance is only found for some of the quantiles of the conditional distribution of mutual fund performance. We established that for the most inefficient funds the superior performance of SRI funds is significant. In contrast, for the best mutual funds this evidence vanished and even Islamic funds perform better than SRI.These results show the benefits of performing the analysis using quantile regression.

On the comparative performance of socially responsible and Islamic mutual funds

This is the first study to provide comprehensive analyses of the relative performance of both socially responsible investment (SRI) and Islamic mutual funds. The analysis proceeds in two stages. In the first, the performance of the two categories of funds is measured using partial frontier methods. In the second stage, we use quantile regression techniques. By combining two variants of the Free Disposal Hull (FDH) methods (order- m and order- α) in the first stage of analysis and quantile regression in the second stage, we provide detailed analyses of the impact of different covariates across methods and across different quantiles. In spite of the differences in the screening criteria and portfolio management of both types of funds, variation in the performance is only found for some of the quantiles of the conditional distribution of mutual fund performance. We established that for the most inefficient funds the superior performance of SRI funds is significant. In contrast, for the best mutual funds this evidence vanished and even Islamic funds perform better than SRI. These results show the benefits of performing the analysis using quantile regression. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.

How unlucky is 25-sigma?

Purpose - To identify the likelihood of a 25-standard deviation occurring in stock prices over several successive days, in the light of comments by David Viniar, chief financial officer of Goldman Sachs.. Design/methodology/approach - Assumes a bell-curve of market losses and graphs the probability of an event relative to the number of deviations. Calculates using MATLAB for sigmas over 7. Considers whether the losses of US investment banks in 2008 were the result of bad luck or of incompetence. Findings - Finds that the probability of a 25-sigma event is every 100,000 +130 decimal points years. Practical implications - Argues that bad luck is usually associated with incompetence, and investors need not choose between them. Originality/value - Presents the mathematical absurdity of a finance officer's statement, and its implications.

A decision support framework for infrastructure maintenance investment decision-making

Infrastructure management agencies are facing multiple challenges, including aging infrastructure, reduction in capacity of existing infrastructure, and availability of limited funds. Therefore, decision makers are required to think innovatively and develop inventive ways of using available funds. Maintenance investment decisions are generally made based on physical condition only. It is important to understand that spending money on public infrastructure is synonymous with spending money on people themselves. This also requires consideration of decision parameters, in addition to physical condition, such as strategic importance, socioeconomic contribution and infrastructure utilization. Consideration of multiple decision parameters for infrastructure maintenance investments can be beneficial in case of limited funding. Given this motivation, this dissertation presents a prototype decision support framework to evaluate trade-off, among competing infrastructures, that are candidates for infrastructure maintenance, repair and rehabilitation investments. Decision parameters' performances measured through various factors are combined to determine the integrated state of an infrastructure using Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT). The integrated state, cost and benefit estimates of probable maintenance actions are utilized alongside expert opinion to develop transition probability and reward matrices for each probable maintenance action for a particular candidate infrastructure. These matrices are then used as an input to the Markov Decision Process (MDP) for the finite-stage dynamic programming model to perform project (candidate)-level analysis to determine optimized maintenance strategies based on reward maximization. The outcomes of project (candidate)-level analysis are then utilized to perform network-level analysis taking the portfolio management approach to determine a suitable portfolio under budgetary constraints. The major decision support outcomes of the prototype framework include performance trend curves, decision logic maps, and a network-level maintenance investment plan for the upcoming years. The framework has been implemented with a set of bridges considered as a network with the assistance of the Pima County DOT, AZ. It is expected that the concept of this prototype framework can help infrastructure management agencies better manage their available funds for maintenance.