Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

The effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of four animal species in a Danish landscape

Background: Variation in carrying capacity and population return rates is generally ignored in traditional studies of population dynamics. Variation is hard to study in the field because of difficulties controlling the environment in order to obtain statistical replicates, and because of the scale and expense of experimenting on populations. There may also be ethical issues. To circumvent these problems we used detailed simulations of the simultaneous behaviours of interacting animals in an accurate facsimile of a real Danish landscape. The models incorporate as much as possible of the behaviour and ecology of skylarks Alauda arvensis, voles Microtus agrestis, a ground beetle Bembidion lampros and a linyphiid spider Erigone atra. This allows us to quantify and evaluate the importance of spatial and temporal heterogeneity on the population dynamics of the four species. Results: Both spatial and temporal heterogeneity affected the relationship between population growth rate and population density in all four species. Spatial heterogeneity accounted for 23–30% of the variance in population growth rate after accounting for the effects of density, reflecting big differences in local carrying capacity associated with the landscape features important to individual species. Temporal heterogeneity accounted for 3–13% of the variance in vole, skylark and spider, but 43% in beetles. The associated temporal variation in carrying capacity would be problematic in traditional analyses of density dependence. Return rates were less than one in all species and essentially invariant in skylarks, spiders and beetles. Return rates varied over the landscape in voles, being slower where there were larger fluctuations in local population sizes. Conclusion: Our analyses estimated the traditional parameters of carrying capacities and return rates, but these are now seen as varying continuously over the landscape depending on habitat quality and the mechanisms of density dependence. The importance of our results lies in our demonstration that the effects of spatial and temporal heterogeneity must be accounted for if we are to have accurate predictive models for use in management and conservation. This is an area which until now has lacked an adequate theoretical framework and methodology.

The impact of sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei on the British fox Vulpes vulpes population

1. Disease epizootics can significantly influence host population dynamics and the structure and functioning of ecological communities. Sarcoptic mange Sarcoptes scabiei has dramatically reduced red fox populations Vulpes vulpes in several countries, including Britain, although impacts on demographic processes are poorly understood. We review the literature on the impact of mange on red fox populations, assess its current distribution in Britain through a questionnaire survey and present new data on resultant demographic changes in foxes in Bristol, UK. 2. A mange epizootic in Sweden spread across the entire country in < 10 years resulting in a decline in fox density of up to 95%; density remained lowered for 15–20 years. In Spain, mange has been enzootic for > 75 years and is widely distributed; mange presence was negatively correlated with habitat quality. 3. Localized outbreaks have occurred sporadically in Britain during the last 100 years. The most recent large-scale outbreak arose in the 1990s, although mange has been present in south London and surrounding environs since the 1940s. The questionnaire survey indicated that mange was broadly distributed across Britain, but areas of perceived high prevalence (> 50% affected) were mainly in central and southern England. Habitat type did not significantly affect the presence/absence of mange or perceived prevalence rates. Subjective assessments suggested that populations take 15–20 years to recover. 4. Mange appeared in Bristol's foxes in 1994. During the epizootic phase (1994–95), mange spread through the city at a rate of 0.6–0.9 km/month, with a rise in infection in domestic dogs Canis familiaris c. 1–2 months later. Juvenile and adult fox mortality increased and the proportion of females that reproduced declined but litter size was unaffected. Population density declined by > 95%. 5. In the enzootic phase (1996–present), mange was the most significant mortality factor. Juvenile mortality was significantly higher than in the pre-mange period, and the number of juveniles classified as dispersers declined. Mange infection reduced the reproductive potential of males and females: females with advanced mange did not breed; severely infected males failed to undergo spermatogenesis. In 2004, Bristol fox population density was only 15% of that in 1994.

Population growth rate and carrying capacity for springtails Folsomia candida exposed to ivermectin

Forecasting the effects of stressors on the dynamics of natural populations requires assessment of the joint effects of a stressor and population density on the population response. The effects can be depicted as a contour map in which the population response, here assessed by Population growth rate, varies with stress and density in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. We present the first complete map of this type using as our model Folsomia candida exposed to five different concentrations of the widespread anthelmintic veterinary medicine ivermectin in replicated microcosm experiments lasting 49 days. The concentrations of ivermectin in yeast were 0.0, 6.8 28.83 66.4 and 210.0 mg/L wet weight. Increasing density and chemical concentration both significantly reduced the population growth rate of Folsomia candida, in part through effects on food consumption and fecundity. The interaction between density and ivermectin concentration was "less-than-additive," implying that at high density populations were able to compensate for the effects of the chemical. This result demonstrates that regulatory protocols carried out at low density (as in most past experiments) may seriously overestimate effects in the field, where densities are locally high and populations are resource limited (e.g., in feces of livestock treated with ivermectin).

Towards a population ecology of stressed environments: the effects of zinc on the springtail Folsomia candida

1. To understand population dynamics in stressed environments it is necessary to join together two classical lines of research. Population responses to environmental stress have been studied at low density in life table response experiments. These show how the population's growth rate (pgr) at low density varies in relation to levels of stress. Population responses to density, on the other hand, are based on examination of the relationship between pgr and population density. 2. The joint effects of stress and density on pgr can be pictured as a contour map in which pgr varies with stress and density in the same way that the height of land above sea level varies with latitude and longitude. Here a microcosm experiment is reported that compared the joint effects of zinc and population density on the pgr of the springtail Folsomia candida (Collembola). 3. Our experiments allowed the plotting of a complete map of the effects of density and a stressor on pgr. Particularly important was the position of the pgr= 0 contour, which suggested that carrying capacity varied little with zinc concentration until toxic levels were reached. 4. This prediction accords well with observations of population abundance in the field. The method also allowed us to demonstrate, simultaneously, hormesis, toxicity, an Allee effect and density dependence. 5. The mechanisms responsible for these phenomena are discussed. As zinc is an essential trace element the initial increase in pgr is probably a consequence of dietary zinc deficiency. The Allee effect may be attributed to productivity of the environment increasing with density at low density. Density dependence is a result of food limitation. 6. Synthesis and applications. We illustrate a novel solution based on mapping a population's growth rate in relation to stress and population density. Our method allows us to demonstrate, simultaneously, hormesis, toxicity, an Allee effect and density dependence in an important ecological indicator species. We hope that the approach followed here will prove to have general applicability enabling predictions of field abundance to be made from estimates of the joint effects of the stressors and density on population growth rate.

Managing threatened species: the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviour-based models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley's declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Pollinator community responses to the spatial population structure of wild plants: A pan-European approach

Land-use changes can alter the spatial population structure of plant species, which may in turn affect the attractiveness of flower aggregations to different groups of pollinators at different spatial scales. To assess how pollinators respond to spatial heterogeneity of plant distributions and whether honeybees affect visitation by other pollinators we used an extensive data set comprising ten plant species and their flower visitors from five European countries. In particular we tested the hypothesis that the composition of the flower visitor community in terms of visitation frequencies by different pollinator groups were affected by the spatial plant population structure, viz. area and density measures, at a within-population (‘patch’) and among-population (‘population’) scale. We found that patch area and population density were the spatial variables that best explained the variation in visitation frequencies within the pollinator community. Honeybees had higher visitation frequencies in larger patches, while bumblebees and hoverflies had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations. Solitary bees had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations and smaller patches. We also tested the hypothesis that honeybees affect the composition of the pollinator community by altering the visitation frequencies of other groups of pollinators. There was a positive relationship between visitation frequencies of honeybees and bumblebees, while the relationship with hoverflies and solitary bees varied (positive, negative and no relationship) depending on the plant species under study. The overall conclusion is that the spatial structure of plant populations affects different groups of pollinators in contrasting ways at both the local (‘patch’) and the larger (‘population’) scales and, that honeybees affect the flower visitation by other pollinator groups in various ways, depending on the plant species under study. These contrasting responses emphasize the need to investigate the entire pollinator community when the effects of landscape change on plant–pollinator interactions are studied.

CABBAGE GROWTH and PRODUCTION IN RELATION TO PLANT DENSITY and NITROGEN

At present, the Brazilian market prefers cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata) of smaller size, which can be achieved by increasing population density; yet this management can alter the optimum rate of nitrogen (N), its second most required nutrient. This study was conducted in the Universidade Estadual Paulista, Jaboticabal, São Paulo, Brazil, from February to June 2004. The objective was to evaluate the effect of population density: 31 250 (DI) and 46 875 plants ha(-1) (D2) with 0, 100, 200 and 300 kg N ha-1 on the growth and production of cabbage Astrus. The experimental design consisted of randomized blocks with a 2 x 4 factorial arrangement and three replicates. Statistical analysis were a variance analysis (F test), the Tukey test for population density averages and polynomial regression for the N rates. In D1, an increase was recorded in the number of inner and outer leaves, dry matter of inner and outer leaves, the stem diameter at the insertion of the head, and the stem dry and fresh matter. The maximum size of the plant in D2 was 1.57 kg and was obtained with 300 kg N ha(-1), while in D1 it was 2.1 kg and was obtained with 244 kg N ha(-1). The optimal economic rate in 131 was 227.1 kg N ha(-1). The highest yield (72.7 t ha(-1)) was obtained with the highest N rate in D2. Smaller cabbage heads, commercially preferred, were obtained without the application of N, regardless of plant population.

Population dynamics, structure and behavior of Anopheles darlingi in a rural settlement in the Amazon rainforest of Acre, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Density and Spatial Distribution of Buffy-tufted-ear Marmosets (Callithrix aurita) in a Continuous Atlantic Forest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Population variation in patch and party size in muriquis (Brachyteles arachnoides)

We examined the relationship between food patch size and feeding party size with comparative data from two populations of muriquis (Brachyteles arachnoides) in the 37,797-ha forest at the Parque Estadual de Carlos Botelho (PECB), São Paulo, and the 800-ha forest at the Estacao Biologica de Caratinga (EBC), Minas Gerais. Precipitation Mins more abundant and less seasonal at PECB than EBC, and the density of large trees (>25.0 cm) was higher at PECB (206 ha(-1)) than at EBC (132 ha(-1)). At both sites, the size of feeding parties is positively related to the size of food patches, As predicted, food parches at PECB are significantly larger than those at EBC for both fruit and leaf sources. Contrary to expectations, feeding parties were larger at EEC than PECB, the higher population density of muriquis and sympatric primates at EBC may make large associations more advantageous to these muriquis than to muriquis living at lower population densities in PECB.

Feeding ecology, density and biomass of the freshwater turtle, Phrynops geoffroanus, inhabiting a polluted urban river in south-eastern Brazil

This study examines the ecology of a population of Geoffroy's side-necked turtle Phrynops geoffroanus inhabiting a polluted urban river in Ribeirão Preto city, São Paulo state, south-eastern Brazil. Adult turtles fed mainly on Chironomidae larvae and pupae (Chironomus cf. plumosus, 100% of occurrence frequency) and domestic waste, but they also consumed terrestrial items (cockroach, snails) and carrion. Juvenile turtles showed more feeding diversity than the adults and exhibited a trend for predation on Chironomidae pupae, but this is not reflected in resource partitioning. The elevated number of turtles (170-230 turtles/ha of river) and biomass (255-345 kg/ha of river) inhabiting this urban river is probably the result of the abundance of sewage and organic waste produced by humans, the absence of predators, and increased availability of nesting areas. Such factors convert this area into an environment highly advantageous for the survival of Geoffroy's side-necked turtle.

Effect of dietary supplementation with vitamin E and stocking density on macrophage recruitment and giant cell formation in the teleost fish, Piaractus mesopotamicus

The effect of dietary supplementation with 0, 100 and 450 mg of vitamin E (DL-α tocopheryl acetate)/kg of a dry diet on the kinetics of macrophage recruitment and giant cell formation in the pacu, maintained at different stocking densities (5 kg/m3 and 20 kg/m3), was investigated by insertion of round glass coverslips into the subcutaneous connective tissue. After a feeding period of 18 weeks, the coverslips were implanted and later removed for examination at 2, 7 and 15 days post-implantation. Fish fed diets supplemented with 450 mg of vitamin E showed an increase (P<0.05) in the accumulation of macrophages, foreign body giant cells and Langhans type cells. The kinetics of macrophage recruitment and giant cell formation on the glass coverslips appeared to be strongly influenced by vitamin E supplementation, since fish fed a basal diet and held at high stocking densities showed low numbers of adhering cells on the coverslips, and high concentrations of plasma corticosteroids. On the other hand, fish given a diet supplemented with 450 mg of vitamin E did not show a similar difference in plasma cortisol concentrations related to stocking density. The effect of cortisol concentrations on carbohydrate metabolism, analysed by assessment of plasma glycaemia, was not clear. Blood glucose concentrations did not vary substantially with the different treatments examined. These results suggest that vitamin E may contribute to the efficiency of the fish's inflammatory response by increasing macrophage recruitment and giant cell formation in the foreign body granulomatous reaction. Vitamin E appeared to act on the stress response of pacus by preventing a stress-related immunosuppression. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Population structure and canopy use by Coussapoa microcarpa, a strangler hemiepiphyte from the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

We studied density, size structure, and establishment sites of Coussapoa microcarpa in the Brazilian Atlantic rain forest. This species is a hemiepiphyte that begins its life in the tops of trees and survives the death of its host to become a free-standing tree. All individuals of C. microcarpa already rooted in the ground were recorded in a 3.43 ha (1.75 ha in lowland and 1.68 ha in submontane) sample of forest plots. Data on total height, root diameter at breast height, host height and diameter at breast height, as well as height, type and diameter of the establishment site were collected. Coussapoa microcarpa present a high density (36.5 ind. ha-1) and the population studied was composed mainly of young individuals. Young and adults differed in establishment sites. The diameter of establishment sites of young was narrower than the diameter of establishment sites of adults, which points out to a limiting factor (diameter of establishment site) regulating the establishment of C. microcarpa. © 2013 Cambridge University Press.

Distribution of Brazilian dermatologists according to geographic location, population and HDI of municipalities: an ecological study

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)