Mathematical modeling and control of population systems: Applications in biological pest control

The aim of this paper is to apply methods from optimal control theory, and from the theory of dynamic systems to the mathematical modeling of biological pest control. The linear feedback control problem for nonlinear systems has been formulated in order to obtain the optimal pest control strategy only through the introduction of natural enemies. Asymptotic stability of the closed-loop nonlinear Kolmogorov system is guaranteed by means of a Lyapunov function which can clearly be seen to be the solution of the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation, thus guaranteeing both stability and optimality. Numerical simulations for three possible scenarios of biological pest control based on the Lotka-Volterra models are provided to show the effectiveness of this method. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A model for optimal chemical control of leaf area damaged by fungi population - Parameter dependence

We present a model to study a fungi population submitted to chemical control, incorporating the fungicide application directly into the model. From that, we obtain an optimal control strategy that minimizes both the fungicide application (cost) and leaf area damaged by fungi population during the interval between the moment when the disease is detected (t = 0) and the time of harvest (t = t(f)). Initially, the parameters of the model are considered constant. Later, we consider the apparent infection rate depending on the time (and the temperature) and do some simulations to illustrate and to compare with the constant case.

Frequency of HLA-B27 and its alleles in patients with Reiter syndrome: comparison with the frequency in other spondyloarthropathies and a healthy control population

This retrospective study analyzed the HLA-B*27 alleles in a group of 20 consecutive patients with the diagnosis of Reiter syndrome (RS) followed in a tertiary referral university hospital in Brazil, during the period 1990-2006, and compared the data with that observed in other patients with spondyloarthropathies followed at the same institution. Eight cases were associated to gastrointestinal infection, eight cases to previous urethritis, and four cases presented no established preceding infection. HLA-B*27 alleles were typed by polymerase chain reaction-amplified DNA hybridized with sequence-specific oligonucleotide probes (HLA-B*2701 to HLA-B*2721). They were compared to a group of 108 patients with ankylosing spondylitis (AS), 40 with undifferentiated spondyloarthropathy (uSpA) and 111 healthy controls. Among the 20 patients, 17 were HLA-B*27 positive (85%). Two HLA-B*27 alleles were observed: HLA-B*2705 (65%) and HLA-B*2702 (35%). In the other spondyloarthropathies, the observed alleles were HLA-B*2705 (90% in AS and 92.5% in uSpA), HLA-B*2702 (8% in AS and 5% in uSpA), HLA-B*2704 (1% in AS and 2.5% in uSpA) and HLA-B*2713 (1% in AS). Among the 111 healthy controls, 80% presented HLA-B*2705, followed by HLA-B*2702 in 10%, HLA-B*2703 in 6%, HLA-B*2707 in 3% and HLA-B*2713 in 1%. Concluding, in the HLA-B*27 positive patients with RS in this study there was predominance of HLA-B*2705 allele, in a lower frequency than that observed in patients with other spondyloarthropathies and healthy controls.

Mitochondrial DNA control region diversity in a population from Espirito Santo state, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Chemical control of different digitaria insularis populations and management of a glyphosate-resistant population

This study aimed to control different populations of Digitaria insularis by glyphosate herbicide, isolated and mixed, besides the combination of methods (chemical and mechanical) to manage resistant adult plants. Three experiments were conducted, one in pots which were maintained under non-controlled conditions and two under field conditions. In the experiment in pots, twelve populations of D. insularis were sprayed with isolated glyphosate (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) and mixed (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) with quizalofop-p tefuryl (0.12 kg i.a. ha(-1)). The treatment of 1.44 kg a.e. ha(-1) of glyphosate plus 0.12 kg a.i. ha(-1) of quizalofop was sufficient for adequate control (>95%) of all populations. Population 11 (area of grain production in Itumbiara, GO) was considered sensitive to glyphosate. Others populations were moderately sensitive or tolerant to the herbicide. In the field, the plants of D. insularis of one of the experiments were mowed and, in the other, there were not. Eight treatments with herbicides [isolated glyphosate (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) and mixed (1.44 and 2.16 kg a.e. ha(-1)) with quizalofop-p-tefuryl at 0.12 kg a.i. ha(-1)), clethodim at 0.108 kg a.i. ha(-1)) or nicosulfuron at 0.06 kg a.i. ha(-1))] were assessed, in combination with or without sequential application of the standard treatment, sprayed 15 days after the first application. The combination of the mechanic control with the application of glyphosate (2.16 and 1.44 kg a.e. ha(-1)) plus quizalofop-p-tefuryl (0.12 kg a.i. ha(-1)) or clethodim (0.108 kg a.i. ha(-1)), associated to the sequential application, was the most effective strategy for the management of adult plants of resistant D. insularis.

ANIMAL POPULATION ECOLOGY AND CONTROL FUNDAMENTALS

Expensive, extensive and apparently lethal control measures have been applied against many species of pest vertebrates and invertebrates for decades. In spite of this, few pests have been annihilated, and in many cases the stated goals have become progressively more modest, so that now we speak of saving foliage or a crop, rather than extermination. It is of interest to examine the reasons why animals are so difficult to exterminate, because this matter, of course, has implications for the type of control policy we pursue in the future. Also, it has implications for the problem of evaluating comparatively various resource management strategies. There are many biological mechanisms which could, in principle, enhance the performance of an animal population after control measures have been applied against it. These are of four main types: genetic, physiological, populationa1, and environmental. We are all familiar with the fact that in applying a control measure, we are, from the pest's point of view, applying intense selection pressure in favor of those individuals that may be preadapted to withstand the type of control being used. The well-known book by Brown (1958) documents, for invertebrates, a tremendous number of such cases. Presumably, vertebrates can show the same responses. Not quite so familiar is the evidence that sub-lethal doses of a lethal chemical may have a physiologically stimulating effect on population performance of the few individuals that happen to survive (Kuenen, 1958). With further research, we may find that this phenomenon occurs throughout the animal kingdom. Still less widely recognized is the fact that pest control elicits a populational homeostatic mechanism, as well as genetic and physiological homeostatic mechanisms. Many ecologists, such as Odum and Allee (1950, Slobodkin (1955), Klomp (1962) and the present author (1961, 1963) have pointed out that the curve for generation survival, or the curve for trend index as a function of last generations density is of great importance in population dynamics.

Differentiation of African Components of Ancestry to Stratify Groups in a Case-Control Study of a Brazilian Urban Population

Background: Balancing the subject composition of case and control groups to create homogenous ancestries between each group is essential for medical association studies. Methods: We explored the applicability of single-tube 34-plex ancestry informative markers (AIM) single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to estimate the African Component of Ancestry (ACA) to design a future case-control association study of a Brazilian urban sample. Results: One hundred eighty individuals (107 case group; 73 control group) self-described as white, brown-intermediate or black were selected. The proportions of the relative contribution of a variable number of ancestral population components were similar between case and control groups. Moreover, the case and control groups demonstrated similar distributions for ACA <0.25 and >0.50 categories. Notably a high number of outlier values (23 samples) were observed among individuals with ACA <0.25. These individuals presented a high probability of Native American and East Asian ancestral components; however, no individuals originally giving these self-described ancestries were observed in this study. Conclusions: The strategy proposed for the assessment of ancestry and adjustment of case and control groups for an association study is an important step for the proper construction of the study, particularly when subjects are taken from a complex urban population. This can be achieved using a straight forward multiplexed AIM-SNPs assay of highly discriminatory ancestry markers.

Genetic Control of Mosquitoes: population suppression strategies

Over the last two decades, morbidity and mortality from malaria and dengue fever among other pathogens are an increasing Public Health problem. The increase in the geographic distribution of vectors is accompanied by the emergence of viruses and diseases in new areas. There are insufficient specific therapeutic drugs available and there are no reliable vaccines for malaria or dengue, although some progress has been achieved, there is still a long way between its development and actual field use. Most mosquito control measures have failed to achieve their goals, mostly because of the mosquito's great reproductive capacity and genomic flexibility. Chemical control is increasingly restricted due to potential human toxicity, mortality in no target organisms, insecticide resistance, and other environmental impacts. Other strategies for mosquito control are desperately needed. The Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) is a species-specific and environmentally benign method for insect population suppression, it is based on mass rearing, radiation mediated sterilization, and release of a large number of male insects. Releasing of Insects carrying a dominant lethal gene (RIDL) offers a solution to many of the drawbacks of traditional SIT that have limited its application in mosquitoes while maintaining its environmentally friendly and species-specific utility. The self-limiting nature of sterile mosquitoes tends to make the issues related to field use of these somewhat less challenging than for self-spreading systems characteristic of population replacement strategies. They also are closer to field use, so might be appropriate to consider first. The prospect of genetic control methods against mosquito vectored human diseases is rapidly becoming a reality, many decisions will need to be made on a national, regional and international level regarding the biosafety, social, cultural and ethical aspects of the use and deployment of these vector control methods.

Complex organochlorine pesticide mixtures as determinant factor for breast cancer risk: a population-based case-control study in the Canary Islands (Spain)

[EN] Background: All the relevant risk factors contributing to breast cancer etiology are not fully known. Exposure to organochlorine pesticides has been linked to an increased incidence of the disease, although not all data have been consistent. Most published studies evaluated the exposure to organochlorines individually, ignoring the potential effects exerted by the mixtures of chemicals. Methods: This population-based study was designed to evaluate the profile of mixtures of organochlorines detected in 103 healthy women and 121 women diagnosed with breast cancer from Gran Canaria Island, and the relation between the exposure to these compounds and breast cancer risk.Results: The most prevalent mixture of organochlorines among healthy women was the combination of lindane and endrin, and this mixture was not detected in any affected women. Breast cancer patients presented more frequently a combination of aldrin, dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE) and dichlorodiphenyldichloroethane (DDD), and this mixture was not found in any healthy woman. After adjusting for covariables, the risk of breast cancer was moderately associated with DDD (OR = 1.008, confidence interval 95% 1.001-1.015, p = 0.024).Conclusions: This study indicates that healthy women show a very different profile of organochlorine pesticide mixtures than breast cancer patients, suggesting that organochlorine pesticide mixtures could play a relevant role in breast cancer risk.

Family characteristics as risk factors for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia: a population-based case-control study

To date, few risk factors for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) have been confirmed and the scientific literature is full of controversial "evidence." We examined if family characteristics, particularly maternal and paternal age and number of older siblings, were risk factors for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL).

HLA-Bw4 identifies a population of HIV-infected patients with an increased capacity to control viral replication after structured treatment interruption

After structured treatment interruption (STI) of treatment for HIV-1, a fraction of patients maintain suppressed viral loads. Prospective identification of such patients might improve HIV-1 treatment, if selected patients are offered STI.

Simulating the impact of four control strategies on the population dynamics of Neospora caninum infection in Swiss dairy cattle

A dynamic deterministic simulation model was developed to assess the impact of different putative control strategies on the seroprevalence of Neospora caninum in female Swiss dairy cattle. The model structure comprised compartments of "susceptible" and "infected" animals (SI-model) and the cattle population was divided into 12 age classes. A reference model (Model 1) was developed to simulate the current (status quo) situation (present seroprevalence in Switzerland 12%), taking into account available demographic and seroprevalence data of Switzerland. Model 1 was modified to represent four putative control strategies: testing and culling of seropositive animals (Model 2), discontinued breeding with offspring from seropositive cows (Model 3), chemotherapeutic treatment of calves from seropositive cows (Model 4), and vaccination of susceptible and infected animals (Model 5). Models 2-4 considered different sub-scenarios with regard to the frequency of diagnostic testing. Multivariable Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis was used to assess the impact of uncertainty in input parameters. A policy of annual testing and culling of all seropositive cattle in the population reduced the seroprevalence effectively and rapidly from 12% to <1% in the first year of simulation. The control strategies with discontinued breeding with offspring from all seropositive cows, chemotherapy of calves and vaccination of all cattle reduced the prevalence more slowly than culling but were still very effective (reduction of prevalence below 2% within 11, 23 and 3 years of simulation, respectively). However, sensitivity analyses revealed that the effectiveness of these strategies depended strongly on the quality of the input parameters used, such as the horizontal and vertical transmission factors, the sensitivity of the diagnostic test and the efficacy of medication and vaccination. Finally, all models confirmed that it was not possible to completely eradicate N. caninum as long as the horizontal transmission process was not interrupted.

Nighttime vagal cardiac control and plasma fibrinogen levels in a population of working men and women

BACKGROUND: Elevated plasma fibrinogen levels have prospectively been associated with an increased risk of coronary artery disease in different populations. Plasma fibrinogen is a measure of systemic inflammation crucially involved in atherosclerosis. The vagus nerve curtails inflammation via a cholinergic antiinflammatory pathway. We hypothesized that lower vagal control of the heart relates to higher plasma fibrinogen levels. METHODS: Study participants were 559 employees (age 17-63 years; 89% men) of an airplane manufacturing plant in southern Germany. All subjects underwent medical examination, blood sampling, and 24-hour ambulatory heart rate recording while kept on their work routine. The root mean square of successive differences in RR intervals during the night period (nighttime RMSSD) was computed as the heart rate variability index of vagal function. RESULTS: After controlling for demographic, lifestyle, and medical factors, nighttime RMSSD explained 1.7% (P = 0.001), 0.8% (P = 0.033), and 7.8% (P = 0.007), respectively, of the variance in fibrinogen levels in all subjects, men, and women. Nighttime RMSSD and fibrinogen levels were stronger correlated in women than in men. In all workers, men, and women, respectively, there was a mean +/- SEM increase of 0.41 +/- 0.13 mg/dL, 0.28 +/- 0.13 mg/dL, and 1.16 +/- 0.41 mg/dL fibrinogen for each millisecond decrease in nighttime RMSSD. CONCLUSIONS: Reduced vagal outflow to the heart correlated with elevated plasma fibrinogen levels independent of the established cardiovascular risk factors. This relationship seemed comparably stronger in women than men. Such an autonomic mechanism might contribute to the atherosclerotic process and its thrombotic complications.