Analysis of population pharmacokinetic data using NONMEM and WinBUGS

The aim of this report is to describe the use of WinBUGS for two datasets that arise from typical population pharmacokinetic studies. The first dataset relates to gentamicin concentration-time data that arose as part of routine clinical care of 55 neonates. The second dataset incorporated data from 96 patients receiving enoxaparin. Both datasets were originally analyzed by using NONMEM. In the first instance, although NONMEM provided reasonable estimates of the fixed effects parameters it was unable to provide satisfactory estimates of the between-subject variance. In the second instance, the use of NONMEM resulted in the development of a successful model, albeit with limited available information on the between-subject variability of the pharmacokinetic parameters. WinBUGS was used to develop a model for both of these datasets. Model comparison for the enoxaparin dataset was performed by using the posterior distribution of the log-likelihood and a posterior predictive check. The use of WinBUGS supported the same structural models tried in NONMEM. For the gentamicin dataset a one-compartment model with intravenous infusion was developed, and the population parameters including the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix were available. Analysis of the enoxaparin dataset supported a two compartment model as superior to the one-compartment model, based on the posterior predictive check. Again, the full between-subject variance-covariance matrix parameters were available. Fully Bayesian approaches using MCMC methods, via WinBUGS, can offer added value for analysis of population pharmacokinetic data.

Pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling of QT interval prolongation following citalopram overdoses

Aims To develop a pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model describing the time-course of QT interval prolongation after citalopram overdose and to evaluate the effect of charcoal on the relative risk of developing abnormal QT and heart-rate combinations. Methods Plasma concentrations and electrocardiograph (ECG) data from 52 patients after 62 citalopram overdose events were analysed in WinBUGS using a Bayesian approach. The reported doses ranged from 20 to 1700 mg and on 17 of the events a single dose of activated charcoal was administered. The developed pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic model was used for predicting the probability of having abnormal combinations of QT-RR, which was assumed to be related to an increased risk for torsade de pointes (TdP). Results The absolute QT interval was related to the observed heart rate with an estimated individual heart-rate correction factor [alpha = 0.36, between-subject coefficient of variation (CV) = 29%]. The heart-rate corrected QT interval was linearly dependent on the predicted citalopram concentration (slope = 40 ms l mg(-1), between-subject CV = 70%) in a hypothetical effect-compartment (half-life of effect-delay = 1.4 h). The heart-rate corrected QT was predicted to be higher in women than in men and to increase with age. Administration of activated charcoal resulted in a pronounced reduction of the QT prolongation and was shown to reduce the risk of having abnormal combinations of QT-RR by approximately 60% for citalopram doses above 600 mg. Conclusion Citalopram caused a delayed lengthening of the QT interval. Administration of activated charcoal was shown to reduce the risk that the QT interval exceeds a previously defined threshold and therefore is expected to reduce the risk of TdP.

Relationships of tacrolimus pharmacokinetic measures and adverse outcomes in stable adult liver transplant recipients

Alternative measures to trough concentrations [non-trough concentrations and limited area under the concentration-time curve (AUC)] have been shown to better predict tacrolimus AUC. The aim of this study was to determine if these are also better predictors of adverse outcomes in long term liver transplant recipients. The associations between tacrolimus trough concentrations (C-0), non-trough concentrations (C-1, C-2, C-4, C-6/8), and AUC(0-12) and the occurrence of hypertension, hyperkalaemia, hyperglycaemia and nephrotoxicity were assessed in 34 clinically stable liver transplant patients. The most common adverse outcome was hypertension, prevalence of 36%. Hyperkalaemia and hyperglycaemia had a prevalence of 21% and 13%, respectively. A sequential population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic approach was implemented. No significant association between predicted C-0, C-1, C-2, C-4, C-6/8 or AUC(0-12) and adverse effects could be found. Tacrolimus concentrations and AUC measures were in the same range in patients with and without adverse effects. Measures reported to provide benefit, preventing graft rejection and minimizing acute adverse effects in the early post-transplant period, were not able to predict adverse effects in stable adult liver recipients whose trough concentrations were maintained in the notional target range.

Synthesis, biological activity, and preliminary pharmacokinetic evaluation of analogues of a phosphosulfomannan angiogenesis inhibitor (PI-88)

The phosphosulfomannan 1 (PI-88) is a mixture of highly sulfated oligosaccharides that is currently undergoing clinical evaluation in cancer patients. As well as it's anticancer properties, 1 displays a number of other interesting biological activities. A series of analogues of 1 were synthesized with a single carbon (pentasaccharide) backbone to facilitate structural characterization and interpretation of biological results. In a fashion similar to 1, all compounds were able to inhibit heparanase and to bind tightly to the proangiogenic growth factors FGF-1, FGF-2, and VEGF. The compounds also inhibited the infection of cells and cell-to-cell spread of herpes simplex virus (HSV-1). Preliminary pharmacokinetic data indicated that the compounds displayed different pharmacokinetic behavior compared with 1. Of particular note was the n-octyl derivative, which was cleared 3 times less rapidly than 1 and may provide increased systemic exposure.

Bayesian population pharmacokinetic analysis of sirolimus

Objective: It is usual that data collected from routine clinical care is sparse and unable to support the more complex pharmacokinetic (PK) models that may have been reported in previous rich data studies. Informative priors may be a pre-requisite for model development. The aim of this study was to estimate the population PK parameters of sirolimus using a fully Bayesian approach with informative priors. Methods: Informative priors including prior mean and precision of the prior mean were elicited from previous published studies using a meta-analytic technique. Precision of between-subject variability was determined by simulations from a Wishart distribution using MATLAB (version 6.5). Concentration-time data of sirolimus retrospectively collected from kidney transplant patients were analysed using WinBUGS (version 1.3). The candidate models were either one- or two-compartment with first order absorption and first order elimination. Model discrimination was based on computation of the posterior odds supporting the model. Results: A total of 315 concentration-time points were obtained from 25 patients. Most data were clustered at trough concentrations with range of 1.6 to 77 hours post-dose. Using informative priors, either a one- or two-compartment model could be used to describe the data. When a one-compartment model was applied, information was gained from the data for the value of apparent clearance (CL/F = 18.5 L/h), and apparent volume of distribution (V/F = 1406 L) but no information was gained about the absorption rate constant (ka). When a two-compartment model was fitted to the data, the data were informative about CL/F, apparent inter-compartmental clearance, and apparent volume of distribution of the peripheral compartment (13.2 L/h, 20.8 L/h, and 579 L, respectively). The posterior distribution of the volume distribution of central compartment and ka were the same as priors. The posterior odds for the two-compartment model was 8.1, indicating the data supported the two-compartment model. Conclusion: The use of informative priors supported the choice of a more complex and informative model that would otherwise have not been supported by the sparse data.