A spectral-based cusum test of evolutionary change

We develop a test of evolutionary change that incorporates a null hypothesis of homogeneity, which encompasses time invariance in the variance and autocovariance structure of residuals from estimated econometric relationships. The test framework is based on examining whether shifts in spectral decomposition between two frames of data are significant. Rejection of the null hypothesis will point not only to weak nonstationarity but to shifts in the structure of the second-order moments of the limiting distribution of the random process. This would indicate that the second-order properties of any underlying attractor set has changed in a statistically significant way, pointing to the presence of evolutionary change. A demonstration of the test's applicability to a real-world macroeconomic problem is accomplished by applying the test to the Australian Building Society Deposits (ABSD) model.

Persistence and expression of Cotesia congregata polydnavirus in host larvae of the tobacco hornworm, Manduca sexta

The gregarious braconid wasp Cotesia congregata parasitizes host larvae of Manduca sexta, and several other sphingid species. Parasitism induces host immunosuppression due to the disruptive action of the wasp's polydnavirus (PDV) on host blood cells. During the initial stages of parasitism, these cells undergo apoptosis followed by cell clumping, which clears the hemolymph of a large number of cells. In this study, the persistence and expression of Cotesia congregata PDV (CcPDV) were examined using Southern and Nor-them blots, respectively. Digoxygenin-labelled total polydnaviral DNA was used to probe genomic DNA isolated from fat body and brains of hosts with emerged wasps taken 6 days following egress of the parasitoids, and significant cross-hybridization between the host fat body genomic DNA with viral DNA was seen. Thus, the virus persists in the host for the duration of parasitism. even during the post-emergence period, and may even be integrated in the host caterpillar DNA. Viral gene expression was examined using Northern blots and probes to the Cotesia rubecula CrV1 homolog, and the CrV1-like mRNAs were expressed as early as 4 h post-parasitization for at least 72 h and faint hybrization is even seen at the time the wasps eclose. In contrast, in Pieris rapae larvae the CrV1 transcript is expressed only for a brief time, during which time hemocyte function is disrupted. The effect is transitory, and hemocytes regain their normal functions after the parasites emerge as first instars. The genome of CcPDV contains one copy of the CrV1-like homolog as shown on Southern blots of viral genomic DNA. In conjunction with our earlier studies of the PDV-encoded early protein 1, the current work suggests multiple viral transcripts are produced following parasitization of the host. and likely target host hemocytes to induce their apoptosis, thereby preventing encapsulation of the parasitoid's eggs. Whether viral DNAs are integrated in the host's genomic DNA remains to be proven, but our results provide preliminary evidence that viral DNAs are detected in the host's fat body cells examined at the time of wasp ernergence and several days later. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Spatial and temporal variation in distribution of mangroves in Moreton Bay, subtropical Australia: a comparison of pattern metrics and change detection analyses based on aerial photographs

An assessment of the changes in the distribution and extent of mangroves within Moreton Bay, southeast Queensland, Australia, was carried out. Two assessment methods were evaluated: spatial and temporal pattern metrics analysis, and change detection analysis. Currently, about 15,000 ha of mangroves are present in Moreton Bay. These mangroves are important ecosystems, but are subject to disturbance from a number of sources. Over the past 25 years, there has been a loss of more than 3800 ha, as a result of natural losses and mangrove clearing (e.g. for urban and industrial development, agriculture and aquaculture). However, areas of new mangroves have become established over the same time period, offsetting these losses to create a net loss of about 200 ha. These new mangroves have mainly appeared in the southern bay region and the bay islands, particularly on the landward edge of existing mangroves. In addition, spatial patterns and species composition of mangrove patches have changed. The pattern metrics analysis provided an overview of mangrove distribution and change in the form of single metric values, while the change detection analysis gave a more detailed and spatially explicit description of change. An analysis of the effects of spatial scales on the pattern metrics indicated that they were relatively insensitive to scale at spatial resolutions less than 50 m, but that most metrics became sensitive at coarser resolutions, a finding which has implications for mapping of mangroves based on remotely sensed data. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Late Quaternary Milankovitch-scale climatic change and variability and its impact on monsoonal Australasia

Four pollen and charcoal records derived from marine cores around the northern perimeter of Australia are examined to provide a regional picture of patterns, causes and impacts of climate change over the last 100-300 ka. The availability of radiocarbon dates and oxygen isotope records for the cores provides primary chronological control. Spectral analysis of components of these records demonstrates an overall importance of Milankovitch frequencies with clear glacial-interglacial cyclicity dominated by variation in precipitation. In addition, a number of pollen taxa, as well as charcoal particles, exhibit a 30 ka frequency that is considered, from its relationship with biomass burning and with results of past modelling, to reflect changes in the intensity of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. Pollen components of all records show a decline, frequently stepwise, in more fire-sensitive vegetation and its replacement with more fire-tolerant vegetation. There is some evidence that this trend is linked to an onset or general increase in ENSO activity and perhaps also to variation in monsoon activity dating from about 300 ka BP that was caused by changes to oceanic circulation within the Indonesian region. The trend may have accelerated within the last 45 ka due to burning by indigenous people. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Management are aliens! Rumours during organisational change

Rumors collected from a large public hospital undergoing change were content analyzed, and a typology comprising the following five broad types of change-related rumors was developed: rumors about changes to job and working conditions, nature of organizational change, poor change management, consequences of the change for organizational performance, and gossip-rumors. Rumors were also classified as positive or negative on the basis of their content. As predicted, negative rumors were more prevalent than positive rumors. Finally, employees reporting negative rumors also reported more change-related stress as compared to those who reported positive rumors and those who did not report any rumors. The authors propose that rumors be treated as verbal symbols and expressions of employee concerns during organizational change.

Persistence of recipient lymphocytes in NOD mice after irradiation and bone marrow transplantation

The non-obese diabetic (NOD) mouse is a unique and invaluable model of autoimmune disease, in particular type I diabetes. Bone marrow transplantation as a therapy for type I diabetes has been explored in NOD mice. NOD mice require higher doses of conditioning irradiation for successful allogeneic bone marrow transplantation, suggesting that NOD hematopoietic cells are radioresistant compared to those of other mouse strains. However, studies of hematopoietic reconstitution in NOD mice are hampered by the lack of mice bearing a suitable cell-surface marker that would allow transferred cells or their progeny to be distinguished. In order to monitor hematopoietic reconstitution in NOD mice we generated congenic NOD mice that carry the alternative allelic form of the pan-leukocyte alloantigen CD45. Following irradiation and congenic bone marrow transplantation, we found that the myeloid lineage was rapidly reconstituted by cells of donor origin but substantial numbers of recipient T lymphocytes persisted even after supra-lethal irradiation. This indicates that radiation resistance in the NOD hematopoietic compartment is a property primarily of mature T lymphocytes. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Structural change, balance-of-payments constraint, and economic growth: evidence from the multisectoral Thirlwall`s law

This paper contributes to the literature on balance-of-payments constrained growth by investigating how structural change identified with changes in the sectoral composition of exports and imports affects the external constraint We test both the original and a multisectoral version of Thirlwall`s law for a sample of Latin American and Asian countries The original Thirlwall s law is found to hold for all sample countries except South Korea, whereas the multisectoral analogue holds for all of them As the sectoral composition of exports and imports is found to matter for growth we analyze the evolution of each country`s weighted trade income elasticities

GREEN MANAGEMENT, CLIMATE CHANGE AND SMALL BUSINESS IN BRAZIL: IMPLICATIONS FOR TRAINING AND EDUCATION FOR SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

This paper presents the results of a study on the analysis of training needs regarding environmental (green) management and climate change topics in micro and small enterprises (MSEs) in Brazil and its implications on education for sustainable development. It reports on an e-mail survey of Brazilian small enterprises, whose results indicate that they are indeed interested in environmental management and climate change topics in an education for sustainable development context. The study indicates that proposals for courses on environmental management and climate change should follow a systemic perspective and take sustainable development into account. By applying factor analysis, it was found that the topics of interest can be grouped into thematic modules, which can be useful in the design of training courses for the top management leaders of those companies.

History of vegetation and habitat change in the Austral-Asian region

Over 1000 marine and terrestrial pollen diagrams and Some hundreds of vertebrate faunal sequences have been studied in the Austral-Asian region bisected by the PEPII transect, from the Russian arctic extending south through east Asia, Indochina, southern Asia, insular Southeast Asia (Sunda), Melanesia, Australasia (Sahul) and the western south Pacific. The majority of these records are Holocene but sufficient data exist to allow the reconstruction of the changing biomes over at least the past 200,000 years. The PEPII transect is free of the effects of large northern ice caps yet exhibits vegetational change in glacial cycles of a similar scale to North America. Major processes that can be discerned are the response of tropical forests in both lowlands and uplands to glacial cycles, the expansion of humid vegetation at the Pleistocene-Holocene transition and the change in faunal and vegetational controls as humans occupy the region. There is evidence for major changes in the intensity of monsoon and El Nino-Southern oscillation variability both on glacial-interglacial and longer time scales with much of the region experiencing a long-term trend towards more variable and/or drier climatic conditions. Temperature variation is most marked in high latitudes and high altitudes with precipitation providing the major climate control in lower latitude, lowland areas. At least some boundary shifts may be the response of vegetation to changing CO2 levels in the atmosphere. Numerous questions of detail remain, however, and current resolution is too coarse to examine the degree of synchroneity of millennial scale change along the transect. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd and INQUA. All rights reserved.

Mapping cortical change in Alzheimer's disease, brain development, and schizophrenia

This paper describes algorithms that can identify patterns of brain structure and function associated with Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, normal aging, and abnormal brain development based on imaging data collected in large human populations. Extraordinary information can be discovered with these techniques: dynamic brain maps reveal how the brain grows in childhood, how it changes in disease, and how it responds to medication. Genetic brain maps can reveal genetic influences on brain structure, shedding light on the nature-nurture debate, and the mechanisms underlying inherited neurobehavioral disorders. Recently, we created time-lapse movies of brain structure for a variety of diseases. These identify complex, shifting patterns of brain structural deficits, revealing where, and at what rate, the path of brain deterioration in illness deviates from normal. Statistical criteria can then identify situations in which these changes are abnormally accelerated, or when medication or other interventions slow them. In this paper, we focus on describing our approaches to map structural changes in the cortex. These methods have already been used to reveal the profile of brain anomalies in studies of dementia, epilepsy, depression, childhood and adult-onset schizophrenia, bipolar disorder, attention-deficit/ hyperactivity disorder, fetal alcohol syndrome, Tourette syndrome, Williams syndrome, and in methamphetamine abusers. Specifically, we describe an image analysis pipeline known as cortical pattern matching that helps compare and pool cortical data over time and across subjects. Statistics are then defined to identify brain structural differences between groups, including localized alterations in cortical thickness, gray matter density (GMD), and asymmetries in cortical organization. Subtle features, not seen in individual brain scans, often emerge when population-based brain data are averaged in this way. Illustrative examples are presented to show the profound effects of development and various diseases on the human cortex. Dynamically spreading waves of gray matter loss are tracked in dementia and schizophrenia, and these sequences are related to normally occurring changes in healthy subjects of various ages. (C) 2004 Published by Elsevier Inc.

Prevalence of peripheral arterial disease: persistence of excess risk in former smokers

Objective: To determine the age-standardised prevalence of peripheral arterial disease (PAD) and associated risk factors, particularly smoking. Method: Design: Cross-sectional survey of a randomly selected population. Setting: Metropolitan area of Perth, Western Australia. Participants: Men aged between 65-83 years. Results: The adjusted response fraction was 77.2%. Of 4,470 men assessed, 744 were identified as having PAD by the Edinburgh Claudication Questionnaire and/or the ankle-brachial index of systolic blood pressure, yielding an age-standardised prevalence of PAD of 15.6% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 14.5%, 16.6%). The main risk factors identified in univariate analyses were increasing age, smoking current (OR=3.9, 95% CI 2.9-5.1) or former (OR=2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.4), physical inactivity (OR=1.4, 95% CI 1.2-1.7), a history of angina (OR=2.2, 95% CI 1.8-2.7) and diabetes mellitus (OR=2.1, 95% CI 1.7-2.6). The multivariate analysis showed that the highest relative risk associated with PAD was current smoking of 25 or more cigarettes daily (OR=7.3, 95% CI 4.2-12.8). In this population, 32% of PAD was attributable to current smoking and a further 40% was attributable to past smoking by men who did not smoke currently. Conclusions: This large observational study shows that PAD is relatively common in older, urban Australian men. In contrast with its relationship to coronary disease and stroke, previous smoking appears to have a long legacy of increased risk of PAD. Implications: This research emphasises the importance of smoking as a preventable cause of PAD.

Association of tumor necrosis factor-alpha polymorphisms and ozone-induced change in lung function

Ozone is a major air pollutant with adverse health effects which exhibit marked inter-individual variability. In mice, regions of genetic linkage with ozone-induced lung injury include the tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF), lymphotoxin-alpha (LTA), Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4), superoxide dismutase (SOD2), and glutathione peroxidase (GPX1) genes. We genotyped polymorphisms in these genes in 51 individuals who had undergone ozone challenge. Mean change in FEV1 with ozone challenge, as a percentage of baseline, was -3% in TNF -308G/A or A/A individuals, compared with -9% in G/G individuals (p = 0.024). When considering TNF haplotypes, the smallest change in FEV1 with ozone exposure was associated with the TNF haplotype comprising LTA +252G/TNF -1031T/TNF -308A/TNF -238G. This association remained statistically significant after correction for age, sex, disease, and ozone concentration (p = 0.047). SOD2 or GPX1 genotypes were not associated with lung function, and the TLR4 polymorphism was too infrequent to analyze. The results of this study support TNF as a genetic factor for susceptibility to ozone-induced changes in lung function in humans, and has potential implications for stratifying health risks of air pollution.