Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

On the use of headline indices to link environmental quality and income at the level of the nation state

This paper deconstructs the relationship between the Environmental Sustainability Index (ESI) and national income. The ESI attempts to provide a single figure which encapsulates environmental sustainability' for each country included in the analysis, and this allied with a 'league table' format so as to name and shame bad performers, has resulted in widespread reporting within the popular presses of a number of countries. In essence, the higher the value of the ESI then the more 'environmentally sustainable' a country is deemed to be. A logical progression beyond the use of the ESI to publicise environmental sustainability is its use within a more analytical context. Thus an index designed to simplify in order to have an impact on policy is used to try and understand causes of good and bad performance in environmental sustainability. For example the creators of the ESI claim that ESI is related to GDP/capita (adjusted for Purchasing Power Parity) such that the ESI increases linearly with wealth. While this may in a sense be a comforting picture, do the variables within the ESI allow for alternatives to the story, and if they do then what are the repercussions for those producing such indices for broad consumption amongst the policy makers, mangers, the press, etc.? The latter point is especially important given the appetite for such indices amongst non-specialists, and for all their weaknesses the ESI and other such aggregated indices will not go away. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Reductions in insecticide use from adoption of Bt cotton in South Africa: impacts on economic performance and toxic load to the environment

The study reported presents the findings relating to commercial growing of genetically-modified Bt cotton in South Africa by a large sample of smallholder farmers over three seasons (1998/99, 1999/2000, 2000/01) following adoption. The analysis presents constructs and compares groupwise differences for key variables in Bt v. non-Bt technology and uses regressions to further analyse the production and profit impacts of Bt adoption. Analysis of the distribution of benefits between farmers due to the technology is also presented. In parallel with these socio-economic measures, the toxic loads being presented to the environment following the introduction of Bt cotton are monitored in terms of insecticide active ingredient (ai) and the Biocide Index. The latter adjusts ai to allow for differing persistence and toxicity of insecticides. Results show substantial and significant financial benefits to smallholder cotton growers of adopting Bt cotton over three seasons in terms of increased yields, lower insecticide spray costs and higher gross margins. This includes one particularly wet, poor growing season. In addition, those with the smaller holdings appeared to benefit proportionately more from the technology (in terms of higher gross margins) than those with larger holdings. Analysis using the Gini-coefficient suggests that the Bt technology has helped to reduce inequality amongst smallholder cotton growers in Makhathini compared to what may have been the position if they had grown conventional cotton. However, while Bt growers applied lower amounts of insecticide and had lower Biocide Indices (per ha) than growers of non-Bt cotton, some of this advantage was due to a reduction in non-bollworm insecticide. Indeed, the Biocide Index for all farmers in the population actually increased with the introduction of Bt cotton. The results indicate the complexity of such studies on the socio-economic and environmental impacts of GM varieties in the developing world.

The expected performance of single nucleotide polymorphism loci in paternity testing

We discuss the utility of single nucleotide polymorphism loci for full trio and mother-unavailable paternity testing cases, in the presence of population substructure and relatedness of putative and actual fathers. We focus primarily on the expected number of loci required to gain specified probabilities of mismatches, and report the expected proportion of paternity indices greater than three threshold values for these loci. (c) 2004 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Monetary integration and real estate markets: an investigation of the impact of the introduction of a single currency on real estate performance

This paper assesses the impact of the monetary integration on different types of stock returns in Europe. In order to isolate European factors, the impact of global equity integration and small cap factors are investigated. European countries are sub-divided according to the process of monetary convergence. Analysis shows that national equity indices are strongly influenced by global market movements, with a European stock factor providing additional explanatory power. The global and European factors explain small cap and real estate stocks much less well –suggesting an increased importance of ‘local’ drivers. For real estate, there are notable differences between core and non-core countries. Core European countries exhibit convergence – a convergence to a European rather than a global factor. The non-core countries do not seem to exhibit common trends or movements. For the non-core countries, monetary integration has been associated with increased dispersion of returns, lower correlation and lower explanatory power of a European factor. It is concluded that this may be explained by divergence in underlying macro-economic drivers between core and non-core countries in the post-Euro period.

Word frequency and bigram frequency effects on linguistic processing and speech motor performance in individuals with aphasia and normal speakers

Models of normal word production are well specified about the effects of frequency of linguistic stimuli on lexical access, but are less clear regarding the same effects on later stages of word production, particularly word articulation. In aphasia, this lack of specificity of down-stream frequency effects is even more noticeable because there is relatively limited amount of data on the time course of frequency effects for this population. This study begins to fill this gap by comparing the effects of variation of word frequency (lexical, whole word) and bigram frequency (sub-lexical, within word) on word production abilities in ten normal speakers and eight mild–moderate individuals with aphasia. In an immediate repetition paradigm, participants repeated single monosyllabic words in which word frequency (high or low) was crossed with bigram frequency (high or low). Indices for mapping the time course for these effects included reaction time (RT) for linguistic processing and motor preparation, and word duration (WD) for speech motor performance (word articulation time). The results indicated that individuals with aphasia had significantly longer RT and WD compared to normal speakers. RT showed a significant main effect only for word frequency (i.e., high-frequency words had shorter RT). WD showed significant main effects of word and bigram frequency; however, contrary to our expectations, high-frequency items had longer WD. Further investigation of WD revealed that independent of the influence of word and bigram frequency, vowel type (tense or lax) had the expected effect on WD. Moreover, individuals with aphasia differed from control speakers in their ability to implement tense vowel duration, even though they could produce an appropriate distinction between tense and lax vowels. The results highlight the importance of using temporal measures to identify subtle deficits in linguistic and speech motor processing in aphasia, the crucial role of phonetic characteristics of stimuli set in studying speech production and the need for the language production models to account more explicitly for word articulation.

Predicting the annual performance of UK real estate: timeliness versus coverage

The IPD Annual Index is the largest and most comprehensive Real Estate market index available in the UK Such coverage however inevitably leads to delays in publication. In contrast there are a number of quarterly and monthly indices which are published within days of the year end but which lack the coverage in terms of size and numbers of properties. This paper analyses these smaller but more timely indices to see whether such indices can be used to predict the performance of the IPD Annual Index. Using a number of measures of forecasting accuracy it is shown that the smaller indices provide unbiased and efficient predictions of the IPD Annual Index. Such indices also significantly outperform a naive no-change model. Although no one index performs significantly better than the others. The more timely indices however do not perfectly track the IPD Annual Index. As a result any short run predictions of performance will be subject to a degree of error. Nevertheless the more timely indices, although lacking authoritative coverage, provide a valuable service to investors giving good estimates of Real Estates performance well before the publication of the IPD Annual Index.

Transaction based indices for the UK commercial real estate market: an exploration using IPD transaction data

The nature of private commercial real estate markets presents difficulties for monitoring market performance. Assets are heterogeneous and spatially dispersed, trading is infrequent and there is no central marketplace in which prices and cash flows of properties can be easily observed. Appraisal based indices represent one response to these issues. However, these have been criticised on a number of grounds: that they may understate volatility, lag turning points and be affected by client influence issues. Thus, this paper reports econometrically derived transaction based indices of the UK commercial real estate market using Investment Property Databank (IPD) data, comparing them with published appraisal based indices. The method is similar to that presented by Fisher, Geltner, and Pollakowski (2007) and used by Massachusett, Institute of Technology (MIT) on National Council of Real Estate Investment Fiduciaries (NCREIF) data, although it employs value rather than equal weighting. The results show stronger growth from the transaction based indices in the run up to the peak in the UK market in 2007. They also show that returns from these series are more volatile and less autocorrelated than their appraisal based counterparts, but, surprisingly, differences in turning points were not found. The conclusion then debates the applications and limitations these series have as measures of market performance.

Measuring European real estate investment performance: A comparison of different approaches

The performance of real estate investment markets is difficult to monitor because the constituent assets are heterogeneous, are traded infrequently and do not trade through a central exchange in which prices can be observed. To address this, appraisal based indices have been developed that use the records of owners for whom buildings are regularly re-valued. These indices provide a practical solution to the measurement problem, but have been criticised for understating volatility and not capturing market turning points in a timely manner. This paper evaluates alternative ‘Transaction Linked Indices’ that are estimated using an extension of the hedonic method for index construction and with Investment Property Databank data. The two types of indices are compared over Q4 2001 to Q4 2012 in order to examine whether movements in these indices are consistent. The Transaction Linked Indices show stronger growth and sharper declines than their appraisal based counterparts over the course of the cycle in different European markets and they are typically two to four times more volatile. However, they have some limitations; for instance, only country level indicators can be published in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied.

Measuring European property investment performance: comparing different approaches

Purpose – Price indices for commercial real estate markets are difficult to construct because assets are heterogeneous, they are spatially dispersed and they are infrequently traded. Appraisal-based indices are one response to these problems, but may understate volatility or fail to capture turning points in a timely manner. This paper estimates “transaction linked indices” for major European markets to see whether these offer a different perspective on market performance. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – The assessed value method is used to construct the indices. This has been recently applied to commercial real estate datasets in the USA and UK. The underlying data comprise appraisals and sale prices for assets monitored by Investment Property Databank (IPD). The indices are compared to appraisal-based series for the countries concerned for Q4 2001 to Q4 2012. Findings – Transaction linked indices show stronger growth and sharper declines over the course of the cycle, but they do not notably lead their appraisal-based counterparts. They are typically two to four times more volatile. Research limitations/implications – Only country-level indicators can be constructed in many cases owing to low trading volumes in the period studied, and this same issue prevented sample selection bias from being analysed in depth. Originality/value – Discussion of the utility of transaction-based price indicators is extended to European commercial real estate markets. The indicators offer alternative estimates of real estate market volatility that may be useful in asset allocation and risk modelling, including in a regulatory context.

A review of the performance of different ventilation and airflow distribution systems in buildings

The objective of this article is to review the scientific literature on airflow distribution systems and ventilation effectiveness to identify and assess the most suitable room air distribution methods for various spaces. In this study, different ventilation systems are classified according to specific requirements and assessment procedures. This study shows that eight ventilation methods have been employed in the built environment for different purposes and tasks. The investigation shows that numerous studies have been carried out on ventilation effectiveness but few studies have been done regarding other aspects of air distribution. Amongst existing types of ventilation systems, the performance of each ventilation methods varies from one case to another due to different usages of the ventilation system in a room and the different assessment indices used. This review shows that the assessment of ventilation effectiveness or efficiency should be determined according to each task of the ventilation system, such as removal of heat, removal of pollutant, supply fresh air to the breathing zone or protecting the occupant from cross infection. The analysis results form a basic framework regarding the application of airflow distribution for the benefit of designers, architects, engineers, installers and building owners.

Is there a gold social seal? The financial effects of additions to and deletions from social stock indices

This study investigates the financial effects of additions to and deletions from the most well-known social stock index: the MSCI KLD 400. Our study makes use of the unique setting that index reconstitution provides and allows us to bypass possible issues of endogeneity that commonly plague empirical studies of the link between corporate social and financial performance. By examining not only short-term returns but also trading activity, earnings per share, and long-term performance of stocks that are involved in these events, we bring forward evidence of a ‘social index effect’ where unethical transgressions are penalized more heavily than responsibility is rewarded. We find that the addition of a stock to the index does not lead to material changes in its market price, whereas deletions are accompanied by negative cumulative abnormal returns. Trading volumes for deleted stocks are significantly increased on the event date, while the operational performances of the respective firms deteriorate after their deletion from the social index.

A review of Islamic mutual funds’ financial performance and investment style in Muslim and non-Muslim countries

Islamic finance has grown beyond its reputation of providing small-scale banking options and now provides investment and financing options for complex large-scale commercial transactions. Islamic investments are one area that has attracted the attention of investors due to its performance, especially during the economic downturn. The Shari’ah compliance nature of Islamic funds provides an opportunity for those Muslim investors to be part of the global investment sector who have previously been reluctant to invest in conventional mutual funds. The fact that the funds’ managers are prohibited from investing in activities such as weapons production, alcohol production and interest-bearing finance operations, makes Islamic mutual funds also attractive for those Non-Muslim investors who wish to invest ethically. Today there are hundreds of Islamic equity indices offered by Dow Jones, FTSE, MSCI and S&P. Despite the growing importance of Islamic funds, there have been limited studies exploring the performance of Islamic funds worldwide. Due to very limited data sets and not too rigorous analytical methods, these existent studies have neither investigated Islamic funds’ financial performance in noticeable detail nor analysed the investment style of more than six funds. For instance, relevant questions such as the financial performance of Islamic mutual funds’ beyond their investment styles or a difference in performance between funds from Muslim and non-Muslim countries have nearly not been investigated at all. Very recently, a study by Hoepner, Rammal and Rezec (2011) analysed the financial performance and investment style of 262 Islamic equity funds from 20 countries in five regions (Africa, Asia-Pacific, Europe, Gulf Cooperative Council-GCC, and North America). As comparison, previous studies did not even analyse 60 funds. Hoepner et al.’s study sampled a period of two decades and was therefore able to test the performance of the funds during economic booms as well as economic downturns. The findings of the study provide new insights into the performance of Islamic mutual funds in Muslim and Western markets and during financial crisis.

The missing link: using the NBER recession indicator to construct coincident and leading indices economic activity

We use the information content in the decisions of the NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee to construct coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the United States. We identify the coincident index by assuming that the coincident variables have a common cycle with the unobserved state of the economy, and that the NBER business cycle dates signify the turning points in the unobserved state. This model allows us to estimate our coincident index as a linear combination of the coincident series. We compare the performance of our index with other currently popular coincident indices of economic activity.

Endogenous normative indices for the industry concentration

This paper presents new indices for measuring the industry concentration. The indices proposed (C n ) are of a normative type because they embody (endogenous) weights matching the market shares of the individual firms to their Marshallian welfare shares. These indices belong to an enlarged class of the Performance Gradient Indexes introduced by Dansby&Willig(I979). The definition of Cn for the consumers allows a new interpretation for the Hirschman-Herfindahl index (H), which can be viewed as a normative index according to particular values of the demand parameters. For homogeneous product industries, Cn equates H for every market distribution if (and only if) the market demand is linear. Whenever the inverse demand curve is convex (concave), H underestimates( overestimates) the industry concentration measured by the normative indexo For these industries, H overestimates (underestimates) the concentration changes caused by market transfers among small firms if the inverse demand curve is convex(concave) and underestimates( overestimates) it when such tranfers benefit a large firm, according to the convexity (or the concavity) of the demand curve. For heterogeneous product industries, an explicit normative index is obtained with a market demand derived from a quasi-linear utilility function. Under symmetric preferences among the goods, the index Cn is always greater than or equal the H-index. Under asymmetric assumptions, discrepancies between the firms' market distribution and the differentiationj substitution distributions among the goods, increase the concentration but make room for some horizontal mergers do reduce it. In particular, a mean preserving spread of the differentiation(substitution) increases(decreases) the concentration only if the smaller firms' goods become more(less) differentiated(substitute) w.r.t. the other goods. One important consequence of these results is that the consumers are benefitted when the smaller firms are producing weak substitute goods, and the larger firms produce strong substitute goods or face demand curves weakly sensitive to their own prices.