Influenza surviellance in Rio de Janeiro between 1980-1981: a virological and serological study

Laboratory surveillance of influenza has shown a low virus activity in Rio de Janeiro during 1980 and 1981. A few influenza A (H3N2) viruses were isolated in both years during the winter months. Serological investigations showed that this subtype has circulated mostly among children under 10 years of age. No H1N1 virus was isolated but an increase in the proportion of adults with antibody to his virus was noted in sera collected in 1981. Influenza B virus was isolated from children in the spring of 1981 and again an increase was noted in the proportion of adults with antibody to this virus.

A comparison of results from MRIO and interregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) analyses of the impacts of a positive demand shock on the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the rest of the UK

In previous work we have applied the environmental multi-region input-output (MRIO) method proposed by Turner et al (2007) to examine the ‘CO2 trade balance’ between Scotland and the Rest of the UK. In McGregor et al (2008) we construct an interregional economy-environment input-output (IO) and social accounting matrix (SAM) framework that allows us to investigate methods of attributing responsibility for pollution generation in the UK at the regional level. This facilitates analysis of the nature and significance of environmental spillovers and the existence of an environmental ‘trade balance’ between regions. While the existence of significant data problems mean that the quantitative results of this study should be regarded as provisional, we argue that the use of such a framework allows us to begin to consider questions such as the extent to which a devolved authority like the Scottish Parliament can and should be responsible for contributing to national targets for reductions in emissions levels (e.g. the UK commitment to the Kyoto Protocol) when it is limited in the way it can control emissions, particularly with respect to changes in demand elsewhere in the UK. However, while such analysis is useful in terms of accounting for pollution flows in the single time period that the accounts relate to, it is limited when the focus is on modelling the impacts of any marginal change in activity. This is because a conventional demand-driven IO model assumes an entirely passive supply-side in the economy (i.e. all supply is infinitely elastic) and is further restricted by the assumption of universal Leontief (fixed proportions) technology implied by the use of the A and multiplier matrices. In this paper we argue that where analysis of marginal changes in activity is required, a more flexible interregional computable general equilibrium approach that models behavioural relationships in a more realistic and theory-consistent manner, is more appropriate and informative. To illustrate our analysis, we compare the results of introducing a positive demand stimulus in the UK economy using both IO and CGE interregional models of Scotland and the rest of the UK. In the case of the latter, we demonstrate how more theory consistent modelling of both demand and supply side behaviour at the regional and national levels affect model results, including the impact on the interregional CO2 ‘trade balance’.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Joint estimates of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy: the OECD 1981-2003

Official calculations of automatic stabilizers are seriously flawed since they rest on the assumption that the only element of social spending that reacts automatically to the cycle is unemployment compensation. This puts into question many estimates of discretionary fiscal policy. In response, we propose a simultaneous estimate of automatic and discretionary fiscal policy. This leads us, quite naturally, to a tripartite decomposition of the budget balance between revenues, social spending and other spending as a bare minimum. Our headline results for a panel of 20 OECD countries in 1981-2003 are .59 automatic stabilization in percentage-points of primary surplus balances. All of this stabilization remains following discretionary responses during contractions, but arguably only about 3/5 of it remains so in expansions while discretionary behavior cancels the rest. We pay a lot of attention to the impact of the Maastricht Treaty and the SGP on the EU members of our sample and to real time data.

Población y consumo. Una reconstrucción de las poblaciones consumidoras de leche en España 1925-1981

Este artículo se organiza en los siguientes apartados. En el primero, se presentan las fuentes y los datos de las estadísticas españolas sobre consumo de leches de origen animal y se discute las limitaciones del análisis basado en los valores medios. A continuación se presentará una metodología de corrección y ajuste de estos indicadores y a partir de la cual podrán inferirse las distribuciones de consumo del conjunto de la población española. En el segundo, se sigue con la aplicación de este procedimiento a los datos provinciales españoles comprendidos entre 1925 y 1981 y se comentan los resultados básicos obtenidos. Por último, se profundiza en el estudio de las tendencias de consumo a lo largo de ese período tanto a través del análisis de las estructuras de consumo como de sus pautas territoriales. La conclusión situará brevemente los resultados principales en el contexto de la transición nutricional española en el siglo XX y cerrará con unas observaciones sobre la naturaleza de la metodología aplicada, sus limitaciones y posibilidades.

Análisis multi-región input-output (MRIO) de emisiones de gases efecto invernadero (GEI) incorporado en el comercio. Un modelo birregional aplicado a Cataluña y el resto de España

El siguiente trabajo realiza un análisis regional y sectorial para el estudio de la emisiones de gases efecto invernadero (GEI) incorporadas en el comercio entre las regiones de Cataluña y el resto de España para el año 2001, estimando así el Balance Neto en GEI incorporado. El objetivo es el desarrollo de un metodología que nos permita realizar esta estimación de forma rigurosa, con la intención de efectuar un análisis comparativo de ambas estructuras productivas territoriales, en cuanto a la intensidad de emisión y el impacto de la demanda final de las regiones consideradas. Para este propósito se utiliza el marco metodológico del análisis input-output, en particular se aplica dos tipologías de modelos: el modelo básico o single-región y el multi-región, lo que nos permite la comparabilidad entre ambos, demostrando como el modelo MRIO (multi-región input-output) es el método más apropiado para dicho propósito, permitiendo, entre otras ventajas, analizar los vínculos interregionales e intersectoriales de las regiones consideradas. La incorporación de la técnica de la integración vertical o subsistemas, nos permite un enfoque alternativo para el Balance Neto resultante, no tenemos constancia de que este enfoque haya sido utilizado con anterioridad en los análisis MRIO aplicados al estudio de los impactos medioambientales incorporados en el comercio. Tampoco la tenemos sobre la aplicación de los MRIO de forma general para estos impactos a nivel interregional de la economía española. El principal resultado obtenido nos indica que aún teniendo Cataluña un importante superávit comercial con el resto de España, hemos comprobado la existencia de un importante déficit para la primera en cuanto a la polución incorporada en este comercio.

Biomphalaria occidentalis paraense, 1981 in the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

A population of Biomphalaria occidentalis was found for the first time in the State of Minas Gerais. It was probavly introduced into the Várzea das Flores dam, in the municipality of Contagem, the area o0f study, during fish stocking in 1985. There is possibility of "competitive exclusion"between that species and B. glabrata, previously the only Biomphalaria found in the region. The present geographical distribution of B. occidentalis in Brazil is listed.

Use of isozyme patterns in the identification of Biomphalaria tenagophila (D'Orbigny, 1835) and B. occidentalis (Paraense, 1981) (Gastropoda: Planorbidae)

Two sibling species of Biomphalaria, B. tenagophila and B. occidentalis were identified using isozyme patterns obtained by horizontal gel electrophoresis. Six diagnostic enzymatic loci were identified in digestive gland homogenates. The results enable us to distinguish the species, calculate the Nei's coefficient of genetic similarity, and provide a basis for making inferences about the pattern of these two planorbid species colonization and distribution.

Del teatre líric a la cançó popular : construcció social a partir de la música en València (1900-1959)

El text que es mostra a continuació resumeix el treball realitzat en la primera fase de recerca del projecte titulat provisionalment "Del teatre líric a la cançó popular: construcció social a partir de la música en València (1900-1959)". Aquest treball ha tingut una durada de set mesos entre febrer i agost de 2009. El projecte pretén dibuixar les línies que uneixen teatre líric i cançó popular fent especial èmfasi en els mecanismes de creació d'identitat de gènere, que va envoltar tot aquest procés. Per aquests motius, la recerca está construïda sobre dos eixos: entrevistes amb les fonts orals i buidatge dels principals fons bibliogrífics per a l'estudi de les fonts primàries i secundàries del primer període analitzat (1931-1959), focalitzat en els pobles que envolten la ciutat de València. Les conclusions apunten cap a una clara vinculació entre teatre líric i cançó popular, així com la utilització dels esdeveniments musicals amb finalitats conformadores de rols socials per part de les institucions sociopolítiques. Les diferències entre fonts primàries i fonts orals assenyalen una naturalització de la desigualtat de gènere a través de la música que han arribat fins als nostres dies, per la qual cosa és necessari l'estudi i anàlisi de la memòria musical.

Ultrastructure of the tegument of Prosorhynchoides arcuatus (Linton, 1900) Bray, 1984 (Trematoda, Bucephalidae)

The tegument of the adult form of Prosorhynchoides arcuatus (Linton, 1900) (Trematoda, Bucephalidae) from the intestine of Pomatomus saltator (L.) from the Atlantic coast of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil was studied by transmission electron microscopy. The tegument consists of two layers: an external, constituted by a syncytium, containing spines, unicilliated papillae, inclusion bodies and mitochondria and an internal, consisting of a muscular layer and mononucleated tegumental cells.

Health intervention and decline in infant mortality rates. Milk depots in Spain (1900-1936)

The role of public health has been a central topic on the classical debate about the historical mortality decline in Europe. One of these health initiatives were the Milk Depots. Spain set up those centres from the late 19th century until the beginning of the Civil War. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the effect of this health intervention on the infant mortality decline during this period. This study works out three kinds of sources: Statistical Yearbooks, Official documents and local records produced by the same Milk Depot. It analyses data available for all the country and one local case such as the Barcelona’s Milk Depot (1904-1935). The main methodological issue deals with the measurement of the effect of the Milk Depot activities on the pattern of changes of infant mortality. Results suggest that Milk Depots have a positive but quite moderate effect on the improving of overall levels of child survival.