Bayesian mixture model estimation of aerosol particle size distributions

In this paper, we examine approaches to estimate a Bayesian mixture model at both single and multiple time points for a sample of actual and simulated aerosol particle size distribution (PSD) data. For estimation of a mixture model at a single time point, we use Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) to estimate mixture model parameters including the number of components which is assumed to be unknown. We compare the results of this approach to a commonly used estimation method in the aerosol physics literature. As PSD data is often measured over time, often at small time intervals, we also examine the use of an informative prior for estimation of the mixture parameters which takes into account the correlated nature of the parameters. The Bayesian mixture model offers a promising approach, providing advantages both in estimation and inference.

What are the driving factors influencing the size distribution of airborne synthetic clay particles emitted from a jet milling process?

In the field of workplace air quality, measuring and analyzing the size distribution of airborne particles to identify their sources and apportion their contribution has become widely accepted, however, the driving factors that influence this parameter, particularly for nanoparticles (< 100 nm), have not been thoroughly determined. Identification of driving factors, and in turn, general trends in size distribution of emitted particles would facilitate the prediction of nanoparticles’ emission behavior and significantly contribute to their exposure assessment. In this study, a comprehensive analysis of the particle number size distribution data, with a particular focus on the ultrafine size range of synthetic clay particles emitted from a jet milling machine was conducted using the multi-lognormal fitting method. The results showed relatively high contribution of nanoparticles to the emissions in many of the tested cases, and also, that both surface treatment and feed rate of the machine are significant factors influencing the size distribution of the emitted particles of this size. In particular, applying surface treatments and increasing the machine feed rate have the similar effect of reducing the size of the particles, however, no general trend was found in variations of size distribution across different surface treatments and feed rates. The findings of our study demonstrate that for this process and other activities, where no general trend is found in the size distribution of the emitted airborne particles due to dissimilar effects of the driving factors, each case must be treated separately in terms of workplace exposure assessment and regulations.

Large deviation function and fluctuation theorem for classical particle transport

We analytically evaluate the large deviation function in a simple model of classical particle transfer between two reservoirs. We illustrate how the asymptotic long-time regime is reached starting from a special propagating initial condition. We show that the steady-state fluctuation theorem holds provided that the distribution of the particle number decays faster than an exponential, implying analyticity of the generating function and a discrete spectrum for its evolution operator.

Coupling an aerosol box model with one-dimensional flow: a tool for understanding observations of new particle formation events

Field observations of new particle formation and the subsequent particle growth are typically only possible at a fixed measurement location, and hence do not follow the temporal evolution of an air parcel in a Lagrangian sense. Standard analysis for determining formation and growth rates requires that the time-dependent formation rate and growth rate of the particles are spatially invariant; air parcel advection means that the observed temporal evolution of the particle size distribution at a fixed measurement location may not represent the true evolution if there are spatial variations in the formation and growth rates. Here we present a zero-dimensional aerosol box model coupled with one-dimensional atmospheric flow to describe the impact of advection on the evolution of simulated new particle formation events. Wind speed, particle formation rates and growth rates are input parameters that can vary as a function of time and location, using wind speed to connect location to time. The output simulates measurements at a fixed location; formation and growth rates of the particle mode can then be calculated from the simulated observations at a stationary point for different scenarios and be compared with the ‘true’ input parameters. Hence, we can investigate how spatial variations in the formation and growth rates of new particles would appear in observations of particle number size distributions at a fixed measurement site. We show that the particle size distribution and growth rate at a fixed location is dependent on the formation and growth parameters upwind, even if local conditions do not vary. We also show that different input parameters used may result in very similar simulated measurements. Erroneous interpretation of observations in terms of particle formation and growth rates, and the time span and areal extent of new particle formation, is possible if the spatial effects are not accounted for.

Calcium levels and limestone particle size in the diet of commercial layers at the end of the first production cycle

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

On the diurnal cycle of urban aerosols, black carbon and the occurrence of new particle formation events in springtime Sao Paulo, Brazil

Large conurbations are a significant source of the anthropogenic pollution and demographic differences between cities that result in a different pollution burden. The metropolitan area of Sao Paulo (MASP, population 20 million) accounts for one fifth of the Brazilian vehicular fleet. A feature of MASP is the amount of ethanol used by the vehicular fleet, known to exacerbate air quality. The study describes the diurnal behaviour of the submicron aerosol and relies on total particle number concentration, particle number size distribution, light scattering and light absorption measurements. Modelled planetary boundary layer (PBL) depth and air mass movement data were used to aid the interpretation. During morning rush-hour, stagnant air and a shallow PBL height favour the accumulation of aerosol pollution. During clear-sky conditions, there was a wind shift towards the edge of the city indicating a heat island effect with implications on particulate pollution levels at the site. The median total particle number concentration for the submicron aerosol typically varied in the range 1.6 x 10(4)-3.2 x 10(4) cm(-3) frequently exceeding 4 x 10(4) cm-3 during the day. During weekdays, nucleation-mode particles are responsible for most of the particles by numbers. The highest concentrations of total particle number concentrations and black carbon (BC) were observed on Fridays. Median diurnal values for light absorption and light scattering (at 637 nm wavelength) varied in the range 12-33 Mm(-1) and 21-64 Mm(-1), respectively. The former one is equal to 1.8-5.0 mu g m(-3) of BC. The growth of the PBL, from the morning rush-hour until noon, is consistent with the diurnal cycle of BC mass concentrations. Weekday hourly median single-scattering albedo (omega(0)) varied in the range 0.59-0.76. Overall, this suggests a top of atmosphere (TOA) warming effect. However, considering the low surface reflectance of urban areas, for the given range of omega(0), the TOA radiative forcing can be either positive or negative for the sources within the MASP. On the average, weekend omega(0) values were 0.074 higher than during weekdays. During 11% of the days, new particle formation (NPF) events occurred. The analysed events growth rates ranged between 9 and 25 nm h(-1). Sulphuric acid proxy concentrations calculated for the site were less than 5% of the concentration needed to explain the observed growth. Thus, other vapours are likely contributors to the observed growth.