Projections of global warming-induced impacts on winter storm losses in the German private household sector

We present projections of winter storm-induced insured losses in the German residential building sector for the 21st century. With this aim, two structurally most independent downscaling methods and one hybrid downscaling method are applied to a 3-member ensemble of ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 A1B scenario simulations. One method uses dynamical downscaling of intense winter storm events in the global model, and a transfer function to relate regional wind speeds to losses. The second method is based on a reshuffling of present day weather situations and sequences taking into account the change of their frequencies according to the linear temperature trends of the global runs. The third method uses statistical-dynamical downscaling, considering frequency changes of the occurrence of storm-prone weather patterns, and translation into loss by using empirical statistical distributions. The A1B scenario ensemble was downscaled by all three methods until 2070, and by the (statistical-) dynamical methods until 2100. Furthermore, all methods assume a constant statistical relationship between meteorology and insured losses and no developments other than climate change, such as in constructions or claims management. The study utilizes data provided by the German Insurance Association encompassing 24 years and with district-scale resolution. Compared to 1971–2000, the downscaling methods indicate an increase of 10-year return values (i.e. loss ratios per return period) of 6–35 % for 2011–2040, of 20–30 % for 2041–2070, and of 40–55 % for 2071–2100, respectively. Convolving various sources of uncertainty in one confidence statement (data-, loss model-, storm realization-, and Pareto fit-uncertainty), the return-level confidence interval for a return period of 15 years expands by more than a factor of two. Finally, we suggest how practitioners can deal with alternative scenarios or possible natural excursions of observed losses.

A comprehensive benchmarking system for evaluating global vegetation models

We present a benchmark system for global vegetation models. This system provides a quantitative evaluation of multiple simulated vegetation properties, including primary production; seasonal net ecosystem production; vegetation cover; composition and height; fire regime; and runoff. The benchmarks are derived from remotely sensed gridded datasets and site-based observations. The datasets allow comparisons of annual average conditions and seasonal and inter-annual variability, and they allow the impact of spatial and temporal biases in means and variability to be assessed separately. Specifically designed metrics quantify model performance for each process, and are compared to scores based on the temporal or spatial mean value of the observations and a "random" model produced by bootstrap resampling of the observations. The benchmark system is applied to three models: a simple light-use efficiency and water-balance model (the Simple Diagnostic Biosphere Model: SDBM), the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) and Land Processes and eXchanges (LPX) dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In general, the SDBM performs better than either of the DGVMs. It reproduces independent measurements of net primary production (NPP) but underestimates the amplitude of the observed CO2 seasonal cycle. The two DGVMs show little difference for most benchmarks (including the inter-annual variability in the growth rate and seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2), but LPX represents burnt fraction demonstrably more accurately. Benchmarking also identified several weaknesses common to both DGVMs. The benchmarking system provides a quantitative approach for evaluating how adequately processes are represented in a model, identifying errors and biases, tracking improvements in performance through model development, and discriminating among models. Adoption of such a system would do much to improve confidence in terrestrial model predictions of climate change impacts and feedbacks.

The role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle: tracking the below-ground microbial processing of plant-derived carbon for manipulating carbon dynamics in agricultural systems.

It is well known that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) (and other greenhouse gases) have increased markedly as a result of human activity since the industrial revolution. It is perhaps less appreciated that natural and managed soils are an important source and sink for atmospheric CO2 and that, primarily as a result of the activities of soil microorganisms, there is a soil-derived respiratory flux of CO2 to the atmosphere that overshadows by tenfold the annual CO2 flux from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore small changes in the soil carbon cycle could have large impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here we discuss the role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle and review the main methods that have been used to identify the microorganisms responsible for the processing of plant photosynthetic carbon inputs to soil. We discuss whether application of these techniques can provide the information required to underpin the management of agro-ecosystems for carbon sequestration and increased agricultural sustainability. We conclude that, although crucial in enabling the identification of plant-derived carbon-utilising microbes, current technologies lack the high-throughput ability to quantitatively apportion carbon use by phylogentic groups and its use efficiency and destination within the microbial metabolome. It is this information that is required to inform rational manipulation of the plant–soil system to favour organisms or physiologies most important for promoting soil carbon storage in agricultural soil.

Improving productivity and water use efficiency: a case study of farms in England

The idea of Sustainable Intensification comes as a response to the challenge of avoiding resources such as land, water and energy being overexploited while increasing food production for an increasing demand from a growing global population. Sustainable Intensification means that farmers need to simultaneously increase yields and sustainably use limited natural resources, such as water. Within the agricultural sector water has a number of uses including irrigation, spraying, drinking for livestock and washing (vegetables, livestock buildings). In order to achieve Sustainable Intensification measures are needed that enable policy makers and managers to inform them about the relative performance of farms as well as of possible ways to improve such performance. We provide a benchmarking tool to assess water use (relative) efficiency at a farm level, suggest pathways to improve farm level productivity by identifying best practices for reducing excessive use of water for irrigation. Data Envelopment Analysis techniques including analysis of returns to scale were used to evaluate any excess in agricultural water use of 66 Horticulture Farms based on different River Basin Catchments across England. We found that farms in the sample can reduce on average water requirements by 35% to achieve the same output (Gross Margin) when compared to their peers on the frontier. In addition, 47% of the farms operate under increasing returns to scale, indicating that farms will need to develop economies of scale to achieve input cost savings. Regarding the adoption of specific water use efficiency management practices, we found that the use of a decision support tool, recycling water and the installation of trickle/drip/spray lines irrigation system has a positive impact on water use efficiency at a farm level whereas the use of other irrigation systems such as the overhead irrigation system was found to have a negative effect on water use efficiency.

Efficient incorporation of channel cross-section geometry uncertainty into regional and global scale flood inundation models

This paper investigates the challenge of representing structural differences in river channel cross-section geometry for regional to global scale river hydraulic models and the effect this can have on simulations of wave dynamics. Classically, channel geometry is defined using data, yet at larger scales the necessary information and model structures do not exist to take this approach. We therefore propose a fundamentally different approach where the structural uncertainty in channel geometry is represented using a simple parameterization, which could then be estimated through calibration or data assimilation. This paper first outlines the development of a computationally efficient numerical scheme to represent generalised channel shapes using a single parameter, which is then validated using a simple straight channel test case and shown to predict wetted perimeter to within 2% for the channels tested. An application to the River Severn, UK is also presented, along with an analysis of model sensitivity to channel shape, depth and friction. The channel shape parameter was shown to improve model simulations of river level, particularly for more physically plausible channel roughness and depth parameter ranges. Calibrating channel Manning’s coefficient in a rectangular channel provided similar water level simulation accuracy in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency to a model where friction and shape or depth were calibrated. However, the calibrated Manning coefficient in the rectangular channel model was ~2/3 greater than the likely physically realistic value for this reach and this erroneously slowed wave propagation times through the reach by several hours. Therefore, for large scale models applied in data sparse areas, calibrating channel depth and/or shape may be preferable to assuming a rectangular geometry and calibrating friction alone.

Syndromic approach to arboviral diagnostics for global travelers as a basis for infectious disease surveillance

Background Arboviruses have overlapping geographical distributions and can cause symptoms that coincide with more common infections. Therefore, arbovirus infections are often neglected by travel diagnostics. Here, we assessed the potential of syndrome-based approaches for diagnosis and surveillance of neglected arboviral diseases in returning travelers. Method To map the patients high at risk of missed clinical arboviral infections we compared the quantity of all arboviral diagnostic requests by physicians in the Netherlands, from 2009 through 2013, with a literature-based assessment of the travelers’ likely exposure to an arbovirus. Results 2153 patients, with travel and clinical history were evaluated. The diagnostic assay for dengue virus (DENV) was the most commonly requested (86%). Of travelers returning from Southeast Asia with symptoms compatible with chikungunya virus (CHIKV), only 55% were tested. For travelers in Europe, arbovirus diagnostics were rarely requested. Over all, diagnostics for most arboviruses were requested only on severe clinical presentation. Conclusion Travel destination and syndrome were used inconsistently for triage of diagnostics, likely resulting in vast under-diagnosis of arboviral infections of public health significance. This study shows the need for more awareness among physicians and standardization of syndromic diagnostic algorithms

Cutting angle method - a tool for constrained global optimization

Cutting angle method (CAM) is a deterministic global optimization technique applicable to Lipschitz functions f: Rn → R. The method builds a sequence of piecewise linear lower approximations to the objective function f. The sequence of solutions to these relaxed problems converges to the global minimum of f. This article adapts CAM to the case of linear constraints on the feasible domain. We show how the relaxed problems are modified, and how the numerical efficiency of solving these problems can be preserved. A number of numerical experiments confirms the improved numerical efficiency.

The global village: online cross-cultural communication and HRM

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine relational and task dimension of online communication and the associated emotional experience.

Design/methodology/approach – This paper examines four categories of work outcomes: emotional experiences of work, work attitudes, work dynamics and work behaviours; and links each to the cross-cultural online communication context.

Findings – It was found that diversity-oriented HRM can reduce the cultural fault-lines betweenindividualist and collectivist (IC) cultures, and thereby positively moderate the relationship between cross-cultural online communication and affective, cognitive and behavioural outcomes.

Practical implications – Diversity-oriented HRM can capitalize on an organisation’s cultural diversity and avoid cross-cultural misunderstandings. In a more practical sense, the research purports that combined use of IC HRM practices can produce greater efficiency and effectiveness in
online communications worldwide.

Originality/value – The paper provides an insight into the potential implications of increased use of information technology on cross-cultural communication, and human resource management. The significance of diversity-oriented human resource management in managing these implications is also highlighted.

Using the sociotechnical approach in global software developments : Is the theory relevant today?

Global software development teams are highly dependent on technology for daily activities and production. Researchers have investigated the areas such as communication and time-zone difficulties when working across global boundaries during the last decade. However, this research explores job satisfaction, efficiency and the quality of working life of people working in a medium sized globally distributed software development organisation. It is assumed that the work structures of organisations of today are influenced by the theories from the past. This paper focus upon the issues that faces an Australian organisation involved in global software development, the research compares and contrasts the feelings of the employees using a Sociotechnical approach. The discussion highlights several problems areas specific to the organisation which will lay the foundation for future research.

The emergence of the global workplace : opportunities and barriers for building surveyors in Oceania

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) the professional body representing surveyors in the UK, has implemented a policy to globalise in order to meet the challenges and opportunities the global marketplace was creating for its members as well as protecting and serving its interests (RICS, 1999). Quantity surveyors had a presence and history of employment outside the UK, particularly in the Middle and Far East. Real estate surveyors found the transition to working in European Union (EU) countries relatively straightforward and numerous UK real estate organisations have European, Asian, North American and Oceanic offices. Additionally UK based firms establishing partnerships with overseas real estate firms expanded significantly over the previous decade. Building Surveying is different. Small numbers worked in commonwealth countries but in most countries their professional and academic qualifications were not recognised. With the changes implemented by the RICS, this paper examines the barriers and opportunities facing RICS Chartered Building Surveyors (CBS) in Oceania (taken as Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and Fiji).

A desk top study reviewed the political, economic and sociological variables affecting employment opportunities and professional services which were put to the RICS Oceania Building Surveying Faculty. No previous study had been undertaken to identify the specific barriers and opportunities in Oceania for the BS and this research adopted a census survey of RICS practitioners currently employed in the region and the results form the most comprehensive picture of the current position. The findings are that some of the opportunities and barriers will change in significance over time. The main barriers to growth were perceived as lack of support from a Euro focussed RICS and the difficulties associated with being perceived as outsiders. Opportunities were perceived as emerging in new areas of professional services such as sustainability and energy efficiency.

The need for treaty-based e-consumer protections in global B2C e-commerce

The thesis puts forward historical, logical and efficiency arguments for the implementation of treaty-based legal protections for e-consumers transacting in global Business to Customer (B2C) e-commerce. It concludes, however, that the international political climate is such that the implementation by the international community of such protections is very unlikely in the near future.

A RFID architecture framework for global supply chain applications

RFID technology promises to revolutionize supply chains and usher in a new era of cost savings, efficiency and business intelligence. The use of low cost RFID devices in supply chain management systems has been increasing dramatically. While a lot of research has been carried out in trying to make a completely RFID enabled global supply chain a reality there still remains a number of hurdles to be surmounted before that vision can be realized. In this paper, we analyze the specific requirements of a RFID enabled global supply chain. Then we develop and present a RFID architecture that is optimized for developing global supply chain applications but is also fully compatible with the currently used RFID architectures. Finally we do a comparative analysis of our framework with the current RFID architecture standard showing our framework has a number of significant advantages over it.

The roles, responsibilities and development needs of quality managers in Britain and Australia

This paper compares and contrasts the career experiences and development needs of 334 British quality managers compared with Australian quality managers based on two Australian surveys. The quality managers in both countries brought wide functional experience to their roles, with many coming in particular from production and operations and general management. In their current roles major sources of job satisfaction for managers in both countries were improving efficiency and problem solving, whereas aspects of employee relations was a source of least satisfaction. Both groups of quality managers utilised a very limited range of quality tools, the most popular being brainstorming, control charts and Pareto analysis, with virtually no mention of more sophisticated tools like Six sigma, which is in stark contrast to American managers. Also British and Australian managers showed little awareness in terms of their development needs for a broader background in quality, which could disadvantage their companies in global markets.

Energy efficiency rating systems for housing : an Australian perspective

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine current trends in energy efficiency ratings and consider their likely impact on the Australian housing market.

Design/methodology/approach – The research is yet to be conducted; however a mixed method is proposed which is grounded on the theoretical model of consumer behaviour within housing markets. This model has been tested and demonstrated to be useful in predicting buyer behaviour.

Findings – Established theories of buyer perception indicate the introduction of energy efficiency rating systems will have an effect on the level of house prices.

Research limitations/implications – This research is focussed on housing in Australia but also has implications for other global housing markets which are addressing sustainability.

Practical implications – Outputs of this research have implications for policy makers, real estate agents and valuers.

Social implications – Increasing energy costs is likely to restructure the way housing markets operate with regard to sustainability and energy efficiency rating systems and also how they are understood.

Originality/value – This research will be in the Australian context utilising international modeling. As mandatory energy efficiency ratings have not been introduced, this research will be original.

Using Pareto principle plus statistic methodology in establishing a cost estimating model

Previous experience and research indicated that the Pareto Principle (80/20 Principle) has been widely used in many industries to achieve more with less. The study described in this paper concurs that this principle can be applied to improve the estimating accuracy and efficiency, especially in design development stage of projects. In fact, establishing an effective cost estimating model to improve accuracy and efficiency in design development stage has been a subject, which has attracted many research attentions over several decades. For over almost 40 years, research studies indicate that using the 80/20 Principle is one of the approaches. However, most of these studies were built by assumption, theoretical analysis or questionnaire survey. The objective of this research is to explore a logical and systematic method to establish a cost estimating model based on the Pareto Principle. This paper includes extensive literatures review on cost estimating accuracy and efficiency in the construction industry that points out the current gap of knowledge area and understanding of the topical. These reviews assist in developing the direction for the research and explore the potential methodology of using the Pareto Principle in the new cost estimating model. The findings of this paper suggest that combining the Pareto Principle with statistical analysis could be used as the technique to improve the accuracy and efficiency of current estimating methods in design development stage.