Nuevas tendencias y dinámicas migratorias en América Latina y el Caribe

En este documento se describe, en primer lugar, la dinámica migratoria reciente de los países de América Latina y el Caribe, fundamentalmente sobre la base de información censal y con el recurso de otras fuentes de países de destino extrarregional. Se examinan los antecedentes generales de la migración de latinoamericanos y caribeños revisando especialmente los cambios de la migración intarrregional entre las rondas censales de 2000 y de 2010, con énfasis en unos países. Tradicionalmente la emigración desde la región ha sido el objeto privilegiado de estudios, debates y negociaciones, lo cual debiera compartirse con la migración intrarregional. El segundo capítulo aborda la problemática y conceptualización de la niñez migrante, incluyendo elementos relativos a niñez migrante no acompañada, haciendo mención especial a México y Centroamérica. Se revisan algunos instrumentos normativos e institucionales que los países han adoptado a la luz de las recomendaciones y tratados internacionales, y se incluyen propuestas y recomendaciones, así como los componentes de una visión regional. El tercer capítulo examina la vigencia de los procesos de retorno, revisando conceptos, analizando experiencias y las dinámicas asociadas. Se identifican visiones y problemáticas, así como situaciones en las que acontece el retorno y se analizan en relación a diferentes perspectivas disciplinarias. Se destaca la perspectiva transnacional de la migración internacional para luego exponer algunas iniciativas de gobernanza de la migración de retorno en la región y en España, incluyendo programas, planes, leyes y proyectos, analizándolos en función del propósito de cada una. Un anexo contiene propuestas de estimación de la migración.

Recommendations for monitoring avian populations with point counts: a case study in southeastern Brazil

No hemisfério norte, o censo de aves é fundamental para gerar informações que auxiliam na compreensão de tendências populacionais. Tais censos, devido à marcada sazonalidade deste hemisfério, são realizados durante dois momentos distintos: na estação reprodutiva (aves residentes) e no inverno (quando as aves migratórias deixam determinadas regiões). Na região neotropical, porém, dependendo da localidade, as aves podem se reproduzir durante qualquer ou vários períodos do ano; podem ou não migrar, e aquelas que o fazem podem apresentar um padrão assincrônico. Em contraste com o hemisfério norte, tendências populacionais são desconhecidas, bem como o impacto das taxas rápidas de urbanização e desmatamento, que também são pouco monitoradas. Para melhor entender padrões temporais de riqueza e abundância de aves, e avaliar como um censo similar pode ser implementado na América tropical, foram utilizados pontos de escuta ao longo de 12 meses em uma localidade no Estado de São Paulo, sudeste do Brasil. Os censos ocorreram duas vezes por dia (manhãs/tardes) em uma floresta semidecidual ao longo de transecções com 10 pontos (20 pontos por dia) distantes 200 m entre si e com raio de detecção limitado em 100 m. Ambas as riquezas e abundâncias de aves foram maiores durante as manhãs, mas as curvas de acumulação sugerem que os censos vespertinos com maior esforço amostral podem fornecer resultados similares aos censos matutinos. Riqueza e abundância das aves não variam de acordo com estações (i.e., sem padrão aparente entre reprodução e migração), enquanto espécies exclusivas foram encontradas todos os meses e relativamente poucas espécies (20%) foram registradas em todos os meses do ano. Durante este ano, 84% de todas as aves florestais da área estudada foram registradas. Sugerimos que a metodologia de pontos de escuta pode ser utilizada à semelhança dos censos do hemisfério norte. Recomendamos ainda que o esforço amostral em transecções deva incluir ao menos 20 pontos, e que o início da contagem das aves deva ser sazonal, utilizando o período de migração das espécies austrais (e os seis meses seguintes) para coordenar pontos de escuta. Por último, sugerimos que os censos no Brasil e até mesmo na América Latina podem ajudar no entendimento de tendências populacionais, mas também demandam maior esforço do que o observado em latitudes temperadas, devido à maior riqueza de espécies e diferenças nas dinâmicas de reprodução e migração. Por meio do uso de censos de aves coordenados poderá ser desenvolvida uma técnica para os trópicos que irá gerar informações que permitam acompanhar tendências populacionais, com benefícios para a conservação das aves, similarmente aos censos realizados em países do hemisfério norte.

Dinâmica populacional das raias-violas, Rhinobatos horkelli, Rhinobatidae percellens e Zapteryx brerostris (Chondrichthyes, Rhinobatidae) da plataforma continental de São Paulo

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions

Over the past three decades, the decline and altered spatial distribution of the western stock of Steller sea lions (Eumetopias jubatus) in Alaska have been attributed to changes in the distribution or abundance of their prey due to the cumulative effects of fisheries and environmental perturbations. During this period, dietary prey occurrence and diet diversity were related to population decline within metapopulation regions of the western stock of Steller sea lions, suggesting that environmental conditions may be variable among regions. The objective of this study, therefore, was to examine regional differences in the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of oceanographic habitat used by Steller sea lions within the context of recent measures of diet diversity and population trajectories. Habitat use was assessed by deploying satellite-depth recorders and satellite relay data loggers on juvenile Steller sea lions (n = 45) over a five-year period (2000–2004) within four regions of the western stock, including the western, central, and eastern Aleutian Islands, and central Gulf of Alaska. Areas used by sea lions during summer months (June, July, and August) were demarcated using satellite telemetry data and characterized by environmental variables (sea surface temperature [SST] and chlorophyll a [chl a]), which possibly serve as proxies for environmental processes or prey. Spatial patterns of SST diversity and Steller sea lion population trends among regions were fairly consistent with trends reported for diet studies, possibly indicating a link between environmental diversity, prey diversity, and distribution or abundance of Steller sea lions. Overall, maximum spatial heterogeneity coupled with minimal temporal variability of SST appeared to be beneficial for Steller sea lions. In contrast, these patterns were not consistent for chl a, and there appeared to be an ecological threshold. Understanding how Steller sea lions respond to measures of environmental heterogeneity will ultimately be useful for implementing ecosystem management approaches and developing additional conservation strategies.

BLACKBIRD AND STARLING ROOSTING DYNAMICS: MPLICATIONS FOR ANIMAL DAMAGE CONTROL

Each winter an estimated 350 million starlings, red-winged blackbirds (Agelaius phoeniceus), common grackles (Quiscalus quiscula), and brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater) congregate in roosts in the southeastern United States (Meanley 1971, Meanley and Royall 1976). These birds have been of increasing concern because of agricultural damage claims (Stickley et al. 1976, Dolbeer et al. 1978), reputed health hazards (Monroe and Cronholm 1977), and other nuisance problems associated with them. Historical population trends (Dolbeer and Stehn 1979) and the source of winter-roosting blackbirds (Meanley 1971, Meanley and Dolbeer 1978, and Dolbeer 1978) have been summarized, but little information on the number of consecutive nights a bird returns to the same roost (roost fidelity) or the dynamics of a winter roost is available. The purpose of this paper is to present information on roost fidelity and population dynamics needed to better understand and manage winter blackbird and starling roosts.

Spatial clusters of suicide in the municipality of Sao Paulo 1996-2005: an ecological study

Background: In a classical study, Durkheim mapped suicide rates, wealth, and low family density and realized that they clustered in northern France. Assessing others variables, such as religious society, he constructed a framework for the analysis of the suicide, which still allows international comparisons using the same basic methodology. The present study aims to identify possible significantly clusters of suicide in the city of Sao Paulo, and then, verify their statistical associations with socio-economic and cultural characteristics. Methods: A spatial scan statistical test was performed to analyze the geographical pattern of suicide deaths of residents in the city of Sao Paulo by Administrative District, from 1996 to 2005. Relative risks and high and/or low clusters were calculated accounting for gender and age as co-variates, were analyzed using spatial scan statistics to identify geographical patterns. Logistic regression was used to estimate associations with socioeconomic variables, considering, the spatial cluster of high suicide rates as the response variable. Drawing from Durkheim's original work, current World Health Organization (WHO) reports and recent reviews, the following independent variables were considered: marital status, income, education, religion, and migration. Results: The mean suicide rate was 4.1/100,000 inhabitant-years. Against this baseline, two clusters were identified: the first, of increased risk (RR = 1.66), comprising 18 districts in the central region; the second, of decreased risk (RR = 0.78), including 14 districts in the southern region. The downtown area toward the southwestern region of the city displayed the highest risk for suicide, and though the overall risk may be considered low, the rate climbs up to an intermediate level in this region. One logistic regression analysis contrasted the risk cluster (18 districts) against the other remaining 78 districts, testing the effects of socioeconomic-cultural variables. The following categories of proportion of persons within the clusters were identified as risk factors: singles (OR = 2.36), migrants (OR = 1.50), Catholics (OR = 1.37) and higher income (OR = 1.06). In a second logistic model, likewise conceived, the following categories of proportion of persons were identified as protective factors: married (OR = 0.49) and Evangelical (OR = 0.60). Conclusions: This risk/ protection profile is in accordance with the interpretation that, as a social phenomenon, suicide is related to social isolation. Thus, the classical framework put forward by Durkheim seems to still hold, even though its categorical expression requires re-interpretation.

Temporal patterns of the seagrass "Cymodocea nodosa" and depth-related patterns of the green algae "Caulerpa prolifera" in the Canarian Archipelago

Máster Oficial en Gestión Costera

Can wild ungulate carcasses provide enough biomass to maintain avian scavenger populations? An empirical assessment using a bio-inspired computational model

Background The reduction in the amount of food available for European avian scavengers as a consequence of restrictive public health policies is a concern for managers and conservationists. Since 2002, the application of several sanitary regulations has limited the availability of feeding resources provided by domestic carcasses, but theoretical studies assessing whether the availability of food resources provided by wild ungulates are enough to cover energetic requirements are lacking. Methodology/Findings We assessed food provided by a wild ungulate population in two areas of NE Spain inhabited by three vulture species and developed a P System computational model to assess the effects of the carrion resources provided on their population dynamics. We compared the real population trend with to a hypothetical scenario in which only food provided by wild ungulates was available. Simulation testing of the model suggests that wild ungulates constitute an important food resource in the Pyrenees and the vulture population inhabiting this area could grow if only the food provided by wild ungulates would be available. On the contrary, in the Pre-Pyrenees there is insufficient food to cover the energy requirements of avian scavenger guilds, declining sharply if biomass from domestic animals would not be available. Conclusions/Significance Our results suggest that public health legislation can modify scavenger population trends if a large number of domestic ungulate carcasses disappear from the mountains. In this case, food provided by wild ungulates could be not enough and supplementary feeding could be necessary if other alternative food resources are not available (i.e. the reintroduction of wild ungulates), preferably in European Mediterranean scenarios sharing similar and socio-economic conditions where there are low densities of wild ungulates. Managers should anticipate the conservation actions required by assessing food availability and the possible scenarios in order to make the most suitable decisions.

Epizootiologic Investigations of Selected Abortive Agents in Free-Ranging Alpine Ibex (Capra Ibex Ibex) in Switzerland

In the early 2000s, several colonies of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex ibex) in Switzerland ceased growing or began to decrease. Reproductive problems clue to infections with abortive agents might have negatively affected recruitment. We assessed the presence of selected agents of abortion in Alpine ibex by serologic, molecular, and culture techniques and evaluated whether infection with these agents might have affected population densities. Blood and fecal samples were collected from 651 ibex in 14 colonies throughout the Swiss Alps between 2006 and 2008. All samples were negative for Salmonella. spp., Neospora caninum, and Bovine Herpesvirus-1. Antibodies to Coxiella burnetii, Leptospira spp., Chlamydophila abortus, Toxoplasma gondii, and Bovine Viral Diarrhea virus were detected in at least one ibex. Positive serologic results for Brucella spp. likely were false. Overall, 73 samples (11.2%) were antibody-positive for at least one abortive agent. Prevalence was highest for Leptospira spp. (7.9%, 95% CI=5.0-11.7). The low prevalences and the absence of significant differences between colonies with opposite population trends suggest these pathogens do not play a significant role in the population dynamics of Swiss ibex. Alpine ibex do not seem to be a reservoir for these abortive agents or an important source of infection for domestic livestock in Switzerland. Finally, although interactions on summer pastures occur frequently, spillover from infected livestock to free-ranging ibex apparently is uncommon.

Free-Ranging Wild Boar: A Disease Threat to Domestic Pigs in Switzerland?

The risk of transmission of pathogens from free-ranging wild boars (Sus scrofa scrofa) to outdoor domestic pigs (S. scrofa domesticus) is of increasing concern in many European countries. We assess this risk, using Switzerland as an example. We estimated 1) the prevalence of important pathogens in wild boars and 2) the risk of interactions between wild boars and outdoor pigs. First, we tested 252 wild boars from selected areas between 2008 and 2010 for infection with Brucella spp. Bacterial prevalence was estimated to 28.8% (confidence interval [CI] 23.0-34.0) when using bacterial culture (B. suis Biovar 2) and real-time polymerase chain reaction. Antibody prevalence was 35.8% (CI 30.0-42.0), which was significantly higher than in previous studies in Switzerland. We also tested 233 wild boars for porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV). Antibody prevalence was 0.43% (CI 0.01-2.4) for EU-PRRSV and real-time reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction results were negative. These findings suggest that B. suis is increasingly widespread in wild boars and PRRSV is currently not of concern. Second, we documented the spatial overlap between free-ranging wild boars and outdoor piggeries by mapping data on their respective occurrence. Wild boars are most widespread in the mountain range along the western and northern Swiss borders, while most piggeries are located in central lowlands. A risk of interaction is mainly expected at the junction between these two bioregions. This risk may increase if wild boars expand eastward and southward beyond anthropogenic barriers believed to limit their range. Therefore, we evaluated the potential of expansion of the wild boar population. Population trends suggest a continuous increase of wild boars for the past 15 yr. Surveillance of selected wildlife passages using cameras on highways and main roads indicates that these barriers are permeable (average of up to 13 wild boar crossings per 100 days). Thus an increase of wild boar range should be considered. There may be a risk of B. suis spillover from wild boars in Switzerland, which could increase in the future. Data on the occurrence of interactions between pigs and wild boars are needed to assess this risk.

The precipitous decline of the ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana: time to build on scientific evidence to inform conservation management

In recent decades there has been a marked decline in most ortolan bunting Emberiza hortulana populations in temperate Europe, with many regional populations now extinct or on the brink of extinction. In contrast, Mediterranean and, as far as we know, eastern European popula-tions seem to have remained relatively stable. The causes of decline remain unclear but include: habitat loss and degradation, and related reduction in prey availability; climate change on the breeding grounds; altered population dynamics; illegal captures during migration; and environmental change in wintering areas. We review the current knowledge of the biology of the ortolan bunting and discuss the proposed causes of decline in relation to the different population trends in temperate and Mediterranean Europe. We suggest new avenues of research to identify the factors limiting ortolan bunting populations. The main evidence-based conservation measure that is likely to enhance habitat quality is the creation of patches of bare ground to produce sparsely vegetated foraging grounds in invertebrate-rich grassy habitats close to breeding areas.

Monitoring Butterfly Abundance: Beyond Pollard Walks

Most butterfly monitoring protocols rely on counts along transects (Pollard walks) to generate species abundance indices and track population trends. It is still too often ignored that a population count results from two processes: the biological process (true abundance) and the statistical process (our ability to properly quantify abundance). Because individual detectability tends to vary in space (e.g., among sites) and time (e.g., among years), it remains unclear whether index counts truly reflect population sizes and trends. This study compares capture-mark-recapture (absolute abundance) and count-index (relative abundance) monitoring methods in three species (Maculinea nausithous and Iolana iolas: Lycaenidae; Minois dryas: Satyridae) in contrasted habitat types. We demonstrate that intraspecific variability in individual detectability under standard monitoring conditions is probably the rule rather than the exception, which questions the reliability of count-based indices to estimate and compare specific population abundance. Our results suggest that the accuracy of count-based methods depends heavily on the ecology and behavior of the target species, as well as on the type of habitat in which surveys take place. Monitoring programs designed to assess the abundance and trends in butterfly populations should incorporate a measure of detectability. We discuss the relative advantages and inconveniences of current monitoring methods and analytical approaches with respect to the characteristics of the species under scrutiny and resources availability.

Estimating risks in declining populations with poor data

Census data on endangered species are often sparse, error-ridden, and confined to only a segment of the population. Estimating trends and extinction risks using this type of data presents numerous difficulties. In particular, the estimate of the variation in year-to-year transitions in population size (the “process error” caused by stochasticity in survivorship and fecundities) is confounded by the addition of high sampling error variation. In addition, the year-to-year variability in the segment of the population that is sampled may be quite different from the population variability that one is trying to estimate. The combined effect of severe sampling error and age- or stage-specific counts leads to severe biases in estimates of population-level parameters. I present an estimation method that circumvents the problem of age- or stage-specific counts and is markedly robust to severe sampling error. This method allows the estimation of environmental variation and population trends for extinction-risk analyses using corrupted census counts—a common type of data for endangered species that has hitherto been relatively unusable for these analyses.

Tendencias y proyecciones de la población del área metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá en Colombia, 2010-2030

Los cambios demográficos, económicos y sociales que ha sufrido el área metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá en Colombia dan cuenta de una de las dinámicas poblacionales y territoriales más importantes registradas en el país. Con más de 3,5 millones de habitantes distribuidos en 10 municipios que incluyen a Medellín, la capital del departamento de Antioquia, las tendencias por grupos de edad y sexo también muestran notorias recuperaciones de la población respecto de los violentos tiempos del pasado, que dejaron elevadas tasas de mortalidad plasmadas en las pirámides poblacionales. En la actualidad, la dinámica del área metropolitana del Valle de Aburrá revela una desaceleración de los procesos de concentración hacia Medellín y ha empezado a manifestar la consolidación de nuevos centros de agrupación poblacional en los municipios colindantes, con fenómenos de rururbanización que marcarán la tendencia en las siguientes dos décadas.

Envejecimiento demográfico y cambios en la transición a la vejez en el Brasil: pasado, presente y futuro

En el contexto del envejecimiento de la población brasileña, el objetivo de este trabajo consiste en describir las características de la transición a la vejez de hombres y mujeres haciendo hincapié en tres áreas específicas: la esfera doméstica, las condiciones de salud y la condición de actividad económica. A partir de la perspectiva teórica del curso de vida, se concibe a la población de edad avanzada como un grupo heterogéneo y se sostiene la hipótesis de que el aumento de dicha heterogeneidad en las últimas décadas estaría diversificando la experiencia de envejecer. En el artículo se presenta una caracterización histórica de la trayectoria de la población de diferentes generaciones, nacidas desde el comienzo del siglo pasado (que son o serán adultos mayores en la próxima década) y se utiliza el análisis de entropía para medir la heterogeneidad de la población adulta y de edad avanzada, sobre la base de datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares de 1998 y 2008. El análisis subraya la manera en que los cambios en el contexto demográfico, político, económico y sociocultural inciden en las formas de envejecer de la población y las modifican.