Understanding advances in the simulation of intraseasonal variability in the ECMWF model. Part II: the application of process-based diagnostics

In Part I of this study it was shown that moving from a moisture-convergent- to a relative-humidity-dependent organized entrainment rate in the formulation for deep convection was responsible for significant advances in the simulation of the Madden – Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the ECMWF model. However, the application of traditional MJO diagnostics were not adequate to understand why changing the control on convection had such a pronounced impact on the representation of the MJO. In this study a set of process-based diagnostics are applied to the hindcast experiments described in Part I to identify the physical mechanisms responsible for the advances in MJO simulation. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmental moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation – moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up, which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the t ransition t o d eep convection. R esults from this study suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the convective heating and the large-scale wave forcing associated with the MJO.

Triboelectric charging of volcanic ash from the 2011 Grímsvötn eruption

The plume from the 2011 eruption of Grímsvötn was highly electrically charged, as shown by the considerable lightning activity measured by the United Kingdom Met Office’s low-frequency lightning detection network. Previous measurements of volcanic plumes have shown that ash particles are electrically charged up to hundreds of kilometers away from the vent, which indicates that the ash continues to charge in the plume [R. G. Harrison, K. A. Nicoll, Z. Ulanowski, and T. A. Mather, Environ. Res. Lett. 5 024004 (2010); H. Hatakeyama J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 27 372 (1949)]. In this Letter, we study triboelectric charging of different size fractions of a sample of volcanic ash experimentally. Consistently with previous work, we find that the particle size distribution is a determining factor in the charging. Specifically, our laboratory experiments demonstrate that the normalized span of the particle size distribution plays an important role in the magnitude of charging generated. The influence of the normalized span on plume charging suggests that all ash plumes are likely to be charged, with implications for remote sensing and plume lifetime through scavenging effects.

General circulation model estimates of aerosol transport and radiative forcing during the Indian Ocean Experiment

Aerosol sources, transport, and sinks are simulated, and aerosol direct radiative effects are assessed over the Indian Ocean for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) Intensive Field Phase during January to March 1999 using the Laboratoire de Me´te´orologie Dynamique (LMDZT) general circulation model. The model reproduces the latitudinal gradient in aerosol mass concentration and optical depth (AOD). The model-predicted aerosol concentrations and AODs agree reasonably well with measurements but are systematically underestimated during high-pollution episodes, especially in the month of March. The largest aerosol loads are found over southwestern China, the Bay of Bengal, and the Indian subcontinent. Aerosol emissions from the Indian subcontinent are transported into the Indian Ocean through either the west coast or the east coast of India. Over the INDOEX region, carbonaceous aerosols are the largest contributor to the estimated AOD, followed by sulfate, dust, sea salt, and fly ash. During the northeast winter monsoon, natural and anthropogenic aerosols reduce the solar flux reaching the surface by 25 W m�2, leading to 10–15% less insolation at the surface. A doubling of black carbon (BC) emissions from Asia results in an aerosol single-scattering albedo that is much smaller than in situ measurements, reflecting the fact that BC emissions are not underestimated in proportion to other (mostly scattering) aerosol types. South Asia is the dominant contributor to sulfate aerosols over the INDOEX region and accounts for 60–70% of the AOD by sulfate. It is also an important but not the dominant contributor to carbonaceous aerosols over the INDOEX region with a contribution of less than 40% to the AOD by this aerosol species. The presence of elevated plumes brings significant quantities of aerosols to the Indian Ocean that are generated over Africa and Southeast and east Asia.

Ice Shelf Water plume flow beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica

[1] A two-dimensional plume model is used to study the interaction between Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica and its underlying ocean cavity. Ice Shelf Water (ISW) plumes are initiated by the freshwater released from a melting ice shelf and, if they rise, may become supercooled and deposit marine ice due to the pressure increase in the in situ freezing temperature. The aim of this modeling study is to determine the origin of the thick accretions of marine ice at the base of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf and thus improve our understanding of ISW flow paths. The model domain is defined from measurements of ice shelf draft, and from this ISW the model is able to predict plumes that exit the cavity in the correct locations. The modeled plumes also produce basal freezing rates that account for measured marine ice thicknesses in the western part of Ronne Ice Shelf. We find that the freezing rate and plume properties are significantly influenced by the confluence of plumes from different meltwater sources. We are less successful in matching observations of marine ice under the rest of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, which we attribute primarily to this model’s neglect of circulations in the ocean outside the plume.

Horizontal and vertical structure of the Eyjafjallajökull ash cloud over the UK: a comparison of airborne lidar observations and simulations

During April and May 2010 the ash cloud from the eruption of the Icelandic volcano Eyjafjallajökull caused widespread disruption to aviation over northern Europe. The location and impact of the eruption led to a wealth of observations of the ash cloud were being obtained which can be used to assess modelling of the long range transport of ash in the troposphere. The UK FAAM (Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements) BAe-146-301 research aircraft overflew the ash cloud on a number of days during May. The aircraft carries a downward looking lidar which detected the ash layer through the backscatter of the laser light. In this study ash concentrations derived from the lidar are compared with simulations of the ash cloud made with NAME (Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment), a general purpose atmospheric transport and dispersion model. The simulated ash clouds are compared to the lidar data to determine how well NAME simulates the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash clouds. Comparison between the ash concentrations derived from the lidar and those from NAME is used to define the fraction of ash emitted in the eruption that is transported over long distances compared to the total emission of tephra. In making these comparisons possible position errors in the simulated ash clouds are identified and accounted for. The ash layers seen by the lidar considered in this study were thin, with typical depths of 550–750 m. The vertical structure of the ash cloud simulated by NAME was generally consistent with the observed ash layers, although the layers in the simulated ash clouds that are identified with observed ash layers are about twice the depth of the observed layers. The structure of the simulated ash clouds were sensitive to the profile of ash emissions that was assumed. In terms of horizontal and vertical structure the best results were obtained by assuming that the emission occurred at the top of the eruption plume, consistent with the observed structure of eruption plumes. However, early in the period when the intensity of the eruption was low, assuming that the emission of ash was uniform with height gives better guidance on the horizontal and vertical structure of the ash cloud. Comparison of the lidar concentrations with those from NAME show that 2–5% of the total mass erupted by the volcano remained in the ash cloud over the United Kingdom.

Validity of the ice shelf water plume concept beneath Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf

In winter, brine rejection from sea ice formation and export in the Weddell Sea, offshore of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), leads to the formation of High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW). This dense water mass enters the cavity beneath FRIS by sinking southward down the sloping continental shelf towards the grounding line. Melting occurs when the HSSW encounters the ice shelf, and the meltwater released cools and freshens the HSSW to form a water mass known as Ice Shelf Water (ISW). If this ISW rises, the ‘ice pump’ is initiated (Lewis and Perkin, 1986), whereby the ascending ISW becomes supercooled and deposits marine ice at shallower locations due to the pressure increase in the in-situ freezing temperature. Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) were able to infer the thickness patterns of marine ice deposits at the base of FRIS (figure 1), so the primary aim of this work is to try to understand the ocean flows that determine these patterns. The plume model we use to investigate ISW flow is described fully by Holland and Feltham (accepted) so only a relatively brief outline is presented here. The plume is simulated by combining a parameterisation of ice shelf basal interaction and a multiplesize- class frazil dynamics model with an unsteady, depth-averaged reduced-gravity plume model. In the model an active region of ISW evolves above and within an expanse of stagnant ambient fluid, which is considered to be ice-free and has fixed profiles of temperature and salinity. The two main assumptions of the model are that there is a well-mixed layer underneath the ice shelf and that the ambient fluid outside the plume is stagnant with fixed properties. The topography of the ice shelf that the plume flows beneath is set to the FRIS ice shelf draft calculated by Sandh¨ager et al. (2004) masked with the grounding line from the Antarctic Digital Database (ADD Consortium, 2002). To initiate the plumes, we assume that the intrusion of dense HSSW initially causes melting at the points on the grounding line where the glaciological tributaries feeding FRIS go afloat.

Applications of electrified dust and dust devil electrodynamics to Martian atmospheric electricity

Atmospheric transport and suspension of dust frequently brings electrification, which may be substantial. Electric fields of 10 kVm-1 to 100 kVm-1 have been observed at the surface beneath suspended dust in the terrestrial atmosphere, and some electrification has been observed to persist in dust at levels to 5 km, as well as in volcanic plumes. The interaction between individual particles which causes the electrification is incompletely understood, and multiple processes are thought to be acting. A variation in particle charge with particle size, and the effect of gravitational separation explains to, some extent, the charge structures observed in terrestrial dust storms. More extensive flow-based modelling demonstrates that bulk electric fields in excess of 10 kV m-1 can be obtained rapidly (in less than 10 s) from rotating dust systems (dust devils) and that terrestrial breakdown fields can be obtained. Modelled profiles of electrical conductivity in the Martian atmosphere suggest the possibility of dust electrification, and dust devils have been suggested as a mechanism of charge separation able to maintain current flow between one region of the atmosphere and another, through a global circuit. Fundamental new understanding of Martian atmospheric electricity will result from the ExoMars mission, which carries the DREAMS (Dust characterization, Risk Assessment, and Environment Analyser on the Martian Surface)-MicroARES (Atmospheric Radiation and Electricity Sensor) instrumentation to Mars in 2016 for the first in situ measurements.

Sensitivity of OMI SO2 measurements to variable eruptive behaviour at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat

Since 2004, the satellite-borne Ozone Mapping Instrument (OMI) has observed sulphur dioxide (SO2) plumes during both quiescence and effusive eruptive activity at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. On average, OMI detected a SO2 plume 4-6 times more frequently during effusive periods than during quiescence in the 2008-2010 period. The increased ability of OMI to detect SO2 during eruptive periods is mainly due to an increase in plume altitude rather than a higher SO2 emission rate. Three styles of eruptive activity cause thermal lofting of gases (Vulcanian explosions; pyroclastic flows; a hot lava dome) and the resultant plume altitudes are estimated from observations and models. Most lofting plumes from Soufrière Hills are derived from hot domes and pyroclastic flows. Although Vulcanian explosions produced the largest plumes, some produced only negligible SO2 signals detected by OMI. OMI is most valuable for monitoring purposes at this volcano during periods of lava dome growth and during explosive activity.

Understanding advances in the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in a numerical weather prediction model.

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the dominant mode of intraseasonal variability in the Trop- ics. It can be characterised as a planetary-scale coupling between the atmospheric circulation and organised deep convection that propagates east through the equatorial Indo-Pacific region. The MJO interacts with weather and climate systems on a near-global scale and is a crucial source of predictability for weather forecasts on medium to seasonal timescales. Despite its global signifi- cance, accurately representing the MJO in numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models remains a challenge. This thesis focuses on the representation of the MJO in the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF), a state-of-the-art NWP model. Recent modifications to the model physics in Cycle 32r3 (Cy32r3) of the IFS led to ad- vances in the simulation of the MJO; for the first time the observed amplitude of the MJO was maintained throughout the integration period. A set of hindcast experiments, which differ only in their formulation of convection, have been performed between May 2008 and April 2009 to asses the sensitivity of MJO simulation in the IFS to the Cy32r3 convective parameterization. Unique to this thesis is the attribution of the advances in MJO simulation in Cy32r3 to the mod- ified convective parameterization, specifically, the relative-humidity-dependent formulation for or- ganised deep entrainment. Increasing the sensitivity of the deep convection scheme to environmen- tal moisture is shown to modify the relationship between precipitation and moisture in the model. Through dry-air entrainment, convective plumes ascending in low-humidity environments terminate lower in the atmosphere. As a result, there is an increase in the occurrence of cumulus congestus, which acts to moisten the mid-troposphere. Due to the modified precipitation-moisture relationship more moisture is able to build up which effectively preconditions the tropical atmosphere for the transition to deep convection. Results from this thesis suggest that a tropospheric moisture control on convection is key to simulating the interaction between the physics and large-scale circulation associated with the MJO.

Cloud streets and land-water interactions in the Amazon

Cloud streets are common feature in the Amazon Basin. They form from the combination of the vertical trade wind stress and moist convection. Here, satellite imagery, data collected during the COBRA-PARA (Caxiuan Observations in the Biosphere, River and Atmosphere of Para) field campaign, and high resolution modeling are used to understand the streets` formation and behavior. The observations show that the streets have an aspect ratio of about 3.5 and they reach their maximum activity around 15:00 UTC when the wind shear is weaker, and the convective boundary layer reaches its maximum height. The simulations reveal that the cloud streets onset is caused by the local circulations and convection produced at the interfaces between forest and rivers of the Amazon. The satellite data and modeling show that the large rivers anchor the cloud streets producing a quasi-stationary horizontal pattern. The streets are associated with horizontal roll vortices parallel to the mean flow that organizes the turbulence causing advection of latent heat flux towards the upward branches. The streets have multiple warm plumes that promote a connection between the rolls. These spatial patterns allow fundamental insights on the interpretation of the Amazon exchanges between surface and atmosphere with important consequences for the climate change understanding.

A case study of the direct radiative effect of biomass burning aerosols on precipitation in the Eastern Amazon

Numerical experiments with the Brazilian additions to the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System were performed with two nested grids (50 and 10 km horizontal resolution, respectively) with and without the effect of biomass burning for 8 different situations for 96 h integrations. Only the direct radiative effect of aerosols is considered. The results were analyzed in large areas encompassing the BR163 road (one of the main areas of deforestation in the Amazon). mainly where most of the burning takes place. The precipitation change due to the direct radiative impact of biomass burning is generally negative (i.e., there is a decrease of precipitation). However, there are a few cases with a positive impact. Two opposite forcing mechanisms were explored: (a) the thermodynamic forcing that is generally negative in the sense that the aerosol tends to stabilize the lower atmosphere and (b) the dynamic impact associated with the low level horizontal pressure gradients produced by the aerosol plumes. In order to understand the non-linear relationship between the two effects, experiments were performed with 4-fold emissions. In these cases, the dynamic effect overcomes the stabilization produced by the radiative forcing and precipitation increase is observed in comparison with the control experiment. This study suggests that. in general, the biomass burning radiative forcing decreases the precipitation. However, very large concentrations of aerosols may lead to an increase of precipitation due to the dynamical forcing associated with the horizontal pressure gradients. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin from receiver functions and Rayleigh-wave dispersion: Evidence for a fragmented cratonic root

The deep crustal structure of the Parana Basin of southern Brazil is investigated by analyzing P- and PP-wave receiver functions at 17 Brazilian Lithosphere Seismic Project stations within the basin. The study area can be described as a typical Paleozoic intracratonic basin that hosts one of the largest Large Igneous Province of the world and makes a unique setting for investigating models of basin subsidence and their interaction with mantle plumes. Our study consists of (1) an analysis of the Moho interaction phases in the receiver functions to obtain the thickness and bulk Vp/Vs ratio of the basin`s underlying crust and (2) a joint inversion with Rayleigh-wave dispersion velocities from an independent tomographic study to delineate the detailed S-wave velocity variation with depth. The results of our analysis reveal that Moho depths and bulk Vp/Vs ratios (including sediments) vary between 41 and 48 km and between 1.70 and 1.76, respectively, with the largest values roughly coinciding with the basin`s axis, and that S-wave velocities in the lower crust are generally below 3.8 km/s. Select sites within the basin, however, show lower crustal S-wave velocities slightly above 3.9 km/s suggestive of underplated mafic material. We show that these observations are consistent with a fragmented cratonic root under the Parana basin that defined a zone of weakness for the initial Paleozoic subsidence of the basin and which allowed localized mafic underplating of the crust along the suture zones by Cenozoic magmatism.

Trace element geochemistry and Sr-Nd characteristics of Mesoproterozoic mafic intrusive rocks from Rondonia, Brazil, SW Amazonian Craton: Petrogenetic and tectonic inferences

The Amazonian Craton comprises an Archean domain surrounded by four successively younger Proterozoic tectonic provinces. Within the Rio-Negro-Juruena province the Serra da Providencia Intrusive Suite (1.60 and 1.53 Ga) consists of A-type rapakivi granites, charnockites and mangerites genetically associated with diabase dikes, gabbros and amphibolites lites. The original mafic melts were derived from a depleted mantle source (epsilon(Nd(T)) + 2.5 to +2.8; epsilon(Sr(T)) - 12.1). Underplated mafic magma induced melting of a short-lived fielsic crust, thus originating coeval felsic-inafic magmatism in a continental intraplate setting. The Colorado Complex, assigned to the Rondonian-San Ignacio province, comprises 1.35-1.36 Ga intrusive bimodal magmatism represented by monzonite gneisses associated with amphibolite, gabbro and metadiabase dikes intercalated with metasediments with detrital zircon that yield U-Pb ages of 1.35 to 1.42 Ga. Mafic samples display juvenile signatures (epsilon(Nd(T)) 0.0 to +5.2; epsilon(Sr(T)) -5.0 to -30.7) and are less contaminated than the Serra da Previdencia and Nova Brasiladndia ones. The generation of the basaltic magma is related to the subduction of an oceanic slab below the peridotite wedge (intraoceanic arc setting). Fluids and/or small melts from the slab impregnated the mantle. The Nova Brasilandia Sequence (Sunsas-Aguapei province) comprises a metasedimentary sequence intruded by 1.10-1.02 Ga metadiabases, gabbros, meta-gabbros, and amphibolites associated with granitic plutons (bimodal magmatism). The original tholeiitic magmas, derived from a depleted source (epsilon(Nd(T)) = +3.1 to +5.0), in a proto-oceanic setting, underwent subsequent contamination by the host rocks, as indicated by the isotopic and trace element data.

Design gráfico da pluma de contaminação por compostos orgânicos voláteiss utilizando software CAD na investigação de passivo ambiental em um posto revendedor de combustíveis em Natal/RN

Among the potentially polluting economic activities that compromise the quality of groundwater are the gas stations. The city of Natal has about 120 gas stations, of which only has an environmental license for operation. Discontinuities in the offices were notified by the Public Ministry of Rio Grande do Norte to carry out the environmental adaptations, among which is the investigation of environmental liabilities. The preliminary and confirmatory stages of this investigation consisted in the evaluation of soil gas surveys with two confirmatory chemical analysis of BTEX, PAH and TPH. To get a good evaluation and interpretation of results obtained in the field, it became necessary three-dimensional representation of them. We used a CAD software to graph the equipment installed in a retail service station fuel in Natal, as well as the plumes of contamination by volatile organic compounds. The tool was concluded that contamination is not located in the current system of underground storage of fuel development, but reflects the historical past in which tanks were removed not tight gasoline and diesel

Vertical distribution of benthic invertebrate larvae during an upwelling event along a transect off the tropical Brazilian continental margin

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)