Analysis of recreational fish catches – dealing with highly skewed distributions with many zeros

Data from surveys of recreational anglers fishing on three estuaries in eastern Australia reveal highly skewed distributions of catches with many zeros. Such data may be analysed using a two component approach involving a binary (zero/non-zero catch) response and the non-zero catches. A truncated regression model was effective in analysing the non-zero catches. Covariates were incorporated in the modelling, and their critical assessment has led to improved measures of fishing effort for this recreational fishery.

Simultaneous display of spectrum and image in a single plane, and the realization of a lensless coherent optical processor

A novel method, designated the holographic spectrum reconstruction (HSR) method, is proposed for achieving simultaneous display of the spectrum and image of an object in a single plane. A study of the scaling behaviour of both the spectrum and the image has been carried out and based on this study, it is demonstrated that a lensless coherent optical processor can be realized.

Distributions of lesser mealworm (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae) in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in subtropical Queensland, Australia

Distributions of lesser mealworm, Alphitobius diaperinus (Panzer) (Coleoptera: Tenebrionidae), in litter of a compacted earth floor broiler house in southeastern Queensland, Australia, were studied over two flocks. Larvae were the predominant stage recorded. Significantly low densities occurred in open locations and under drinker cups where chickens had complete access, whereas high densities were found under feed pans and along house edges where chicken access was restricted. For each flock, lesser mealworm numbers increased at all locations over the first 14 d, especially under feed pans and along house edges, peaking at 26 d and then declining over the final 28 d. A life stage profile per flock was devised that consisted of the following: beetles emerge from the earth floor at the beginning of each flock, and females lay eggs, producing larvae that peak in numbers at 3 wk; after a further 3 to 4 wk, larvae leave litter to pupate in the earth floor, and beetles then emerge by the end of the flock time. Removing old litter from the brooder section at the end of a flock did not greatly reduce mealworm numbers over the subsequent flock, but it seemed to prevent numbers increasing, while an increase in numbers in the grow-out section was recorded after reusing litter. Areas under feed pans and along house edges accounted for 5% of the total house area, but approximately half the estimated total number of lesser mealworms in the broiler house occurred in these locations. The results of this study will be used to determine optimal deployment of site-specific treatments for lesser mealworm control.

Flow of metal in constrained plane-strain extrusion forging- Part II

With many innovations in process technology, forging is establishing itself as a precision manufacturing process: as forging is used to produce complex shapes in difficult materials, it requires dies of complex configuration of high strength and of wear-resistant materials. Extensive research and development work is being undertaken, internationally, to analyse the stresses in forging dies and the flow of material in forged components. Identification of the location, size and shape of dead-metal zones is required for component design. Further, knowledge of the strain distribution in the flowing metal indicates the degree to which the component is being work hardened. Such information is helpful in the selection of process parameters such as dimensional allowances and interface lubrication, as well as in the determination of post-forging operations such as heat treatment and machining. In the presently reported work the effect of aperture width and initial specimen height on the strain distribution in the plane-strain extrusion forging of machined lead billets is observed: the distortion of grids inscribed on the face of the specimen gives the strain distribution. The stress-equilibrium approach is used to optimise a model of flow in extrusion forging, which model is found to be effective in estimating the size of the dead-metal zone. The work carried out so far indicates that the methodology of using the stress-equilibrium approach to develop models of flow in closed-die forging can be a useful tool in component, process and die design.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Distribution of the angle of rotation plane random walks

We study the probability distribution of the angle by which the tangent to the trajectory rotates in the course of a plane random walk. It is shown that the determination of this distribution function can be reduced to an integral equation, which can be rigorously transformed into a differential equation of Hill's type. We derive the asymptotic distribution for very long walks.

Some Exact-Solutions Describing Unsteady Plane Gas-Flows With Shocks

A new class of exact solutions of plane gasdynamic equations is found which describes piston-driven shocks into non-uniform media. The governing equations of these flows are taken in the coordinate system used earlier by Ustinov, and their similarity form is determined by the method of infinitesimal transformations. The solutions give shocks with velocities which either decay or grown in a finite or infinite time depending on the density distribution in the ambient medium, although their strength remains constant. The results of the present study are related to earlier investigations describing the propagation of shocks of constant strength into non-uniform media.

Out-of-plane deformation and failure of masonry walls with various forms of reinforcement

Out-of-plane behaviour of mortared and mortarless masonry walls with various forms of reinforcement, including unreinforced masonry as a base case is examined using a layered shell element based explicit finite element modelling method. Wall systems containing internal reinforcement, external surface reinforcement and intermittently laced reinforced concrete members and unreinforced masonry panels are considered. Masonry is modelled as a layer with macroscopic orthotropic properties; external reinforcing render, grout and reinforcing bars are modelled as distinct layers of the shell element. Predictions from the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. The model is used to examine the effectiveness of two retrofitting schemes for an unreinforced masonry wall.

Water-wave scattering by two submerged plane vertical barriers-Abel integral-equation approach

The classical problem of surface water-wave scattering by two identical thin vertical barriers submerged in deep water and extending infinitely downwards from the same depth below the mean free surface, is reinvestigated here by an approach leading to the problem of solving a system of Abel integral equations. The reflection and transmission coefficients are obtained in terms of computable integrals. Known results for a single barrier are recovered as a limiting case as the separation distance between the two barriers tends to zero. The coefficients are depicted graphically in a number of figures which are identical with the corresponding figures given by Jarvis (J Inst Math Appl 7:207-215, 1971) who employed a completely different approach involving a Schwarz-Christoffel transformation of complex-variable theory to solve the problem.

An explicit finite element modelling method for masonry walls under out-of-plane loading

An explicit finite element modelling method is formulated using a layered shell element to examine the behaviour of masonry walls subject to out-of-plane loading. Masonry is modelled as a homogenised material with distinct directional properties that are calibrated from datasets of a “C” shaped wall tested under pressure loading applied to its web. The predictions of the layered shell model have been validated using several out-of-plane experimental datasets reported in the literature. Profound influence of support conditions, aspect ratio, pre-compression and opening to the strength and ductility of masonry walls is exhibited from the sensitivity analyses performed using the model.

Gravity-induced coronal plane joint moments in adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

Background Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis is the most common type of spinal deformity, and whilst the risk of progression appears to be biomechanically mediated (larger deformities are more likely to progress), the detailed biomechanical mechanisms driving progression are not well understood. Gravitational forces in the upright position are the primary sustained loads experienced by the spine. In scoliosis they are asymmetrical, generating moments about the spinal joints which may promote asymmetrical growth and deformity progression. Using 3D imaging modalities to estimate segmental torso masses allows the gravitational loading on the scoliotic spine to be determined. The resulting distribution of joint moments aids understanding of the mechanics of scoliosis progression. Methods Existing low-dose CT scans were used to estimate torso segment masses and joint moments for 20 female scoliosis patients. Intervertebral joint moments at each vertebral level were found by summing the moments of each of the torso segment masses above the required joint. Results The patients’ mean age was 15.3 years (SD 2.3; range 11.9 – 22.3 years); mean thoracic major Cobb angle 52° (SD 5.9°; range 42°-63°) and mean weight 57.5 kg (SD 11.5 kg; range 41 – 84.7 kg). Joint moments of up to 7 Nm were estimated at the apical level. No significant correlation was found between the patients’ major Cobb angles and apical joint moments. Conclusions Patients with larger Cobb angles do not necessarily have higher joint moments, and curve shape is an important determinant of joint moment distribution. These findings may help to explain the variations in progression between individual patients. This study suggests that substantial corrective forces are required of either internal instrumentation or orthoses to effectively counter the gravity-induced moments acting to deform the spinal joints of idiopathic scoliosis patients.

Royal Air Mail plane in Singapore Transportation

Digital Image

Royal Air Mail plane in Singapore Transportation

Digital Image

A unified approach to the solution of plane problems of Magneto-elasticity with special reference to a hole in a thin infinite conducting plate

Under certain specific assumption it has been observed that the basic equations of magneto-elasticity in the case of plane deformation lead to a biharmonic equation, as in the case of the classical plane theory of elasticity. The method of solving boundary value problems has been properly modified and a unified approach in solving such problems has been suggested with special reference to problems relating thin infinite plates with a hole. Closed form expressions have been obtained for the stresses due to a uniform magnetic field present in the plane of deformation of a thin infinite conducting plate with a circular hole, the plate being deformed by a tension acting parallel to the direction of the magnetic field.

A new family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions with variable marginal amounts of tailweight: Application to robust clustering

We propose a family of multivariate heavy-tailed distributions that allow variable marginal amounts of tailweight. The originality comes from introducing multidimensional instead of univariate scale variables for the mixture of scaled Gaussian family of distributions. In contrast to most existing approaches, the derived distributions can account for a variety of shapes and have a simple tractable form with a closed-form probability density function whatever the dimension. We examine a number of properties of these distributions and illustrate them in the particular case of Pearson type VII and t tails. For these latter cases, we provide maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters and illustrate their modelling flexibility on simulated and real data clustering examples.