Supporting real-time distributed computer-controlled systems with multi-hop P-NET networks

Fieldbus communication networks aim to interconnect sensors, actuators and controllers within process control applications. Therefore, they constitute the foundation upon which real-time distributed computer-controlled systems can be implemented. P-NET is a fieldbus communication standard, which uses a virtual token-passing medium-access-control mechanism. In this paper pre-run-time schedulability conditions for supporting real-time traffic with P-NET networks are established. Essentially, formulae to evaluate the upper bound of the end-to-end communication delay in P-NET messages are provided. Using this upper bound, a feasibility test is then provided to check the timing requirements for accessing remote process variables. This paper also shows how P-NET network segmentation can significantly reduce the end-to-end communication delays for messages with stringent timing requirements.

Energy-aware task mapping onto heterogeneous platforms using DVFS and sleep states

Heterogeneous multicore platforms are becoming an interesting alternative for embedded computing systems with limited power supply as they can execute specific tasks in an efficient manner. Nonetheless, one of the main challenges of such platforms consists of optimising the energy consumption in the presence of temporal constraints. This paper addresses the problem of task-to-core allocation onto heterogeneous multicore platforms such that the overall energy consumption of the system is minimised. To this end, we propose a two-phase approach that considers both dynamic and leakage energy consumption: (i) the first phase allocates tasks to the cores such that the dynamic energy consumption is reduced; (ii) the second phase refines the allocation performed in the first phase in order to achieve better sleep states by trading off the dynamic energy consumption with the reduction in leakage energy consumption. This hybrid approach considers core frequency set-points, tasks energy consumption and sleep states of the cores to reduce the energy consumption of the system. Major value has been placed on a realistic power model which increases the practical relevance of the proposed approach. Finally, extensive simulations have been carried out to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. In the best-case, savings up to 18% of energy are reached over the first fit algorithm, which has shown, in previous works, to perform better than other bin-packing heuristics for the target heterogeneous multicore platform.

Parallel Software framework for time-critical many-core systems

The recent technological advancements and market trends are causing an interesting phenomenon towards the convergence of High-Performance Computing (HPC) and Embedded Computing (EC) domains. On one side, new kinds of HPC applications are being required by markets needing huge amounts of information to be processed within a bounded amount of time. On the other side, EC systems are increasingly concerned with providing higher performance in real-time, challenging the performance capabilities of current architectures. The advent of next-generation many-core embedded platforms has the chance of intercepting this converging need for predictable high-performance, allowing HPC and EC applications to be executed on efficient and powerful heterogeneous architectures integrating general-purpose processors with many-core computing fabrics. To this end, it is of paramount importance to develop new techniques for exploiting the massively parallel computation capabilities of such platforms in a predictable way. P-SOCRATES will tackle this important challenge by merging leading research groups from the HPC and EC communities. The time-criticality and parallelisation challenges common to both areas will be addressed by proposing an integrated framework for executing workload-intensive applications with real-time requirements on top of next-generation commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) platforms based on many-core accelerated architectures. The project will investigate new HPC techniques that fulfil real-time requirements. The main sources of indeterminism will be identified, proposing efficient mapping and scheduling algorithms, along with the associated timing and schedulability analysis, to guarantee the real-time and performance requirements of the applications.

Systems Genetics of Metabolism: The Use of the BXD Murine Reference Panel for Multiscalar Integration of Traits.

Metabolic homeostasis is achieved by complex molecular and cellular networks that differ significantly among individuals and are difficult to model with genetically engineered lines of mice optimized to study single gene function. Here, we systematically acquired metabolic phenotypes by using the EUMODIC EMPReSS protocols across a large panel of isogenic but diverse strains of mice (BXD type) to study the genetic control of metabolism. We generated and analyzed 140 classical phenotypes and deposited these in an open-access web service for systems genetics (www.genenetwork.org). Heritability, influence of sex, and genetic modifiers of traits were examined singly and jointly by using quantitative-trait locus (QTL) and expression QTL-mapping methods. Traits and networks were linked to loci encompassing both known variants and novel candidate genes, including alkaline phosphatase (ALPL), here linked to hypophosphatasia. The assembled and curated phenotypes provide key resources and exemplars that can be used to dissect complex metabolic traits and disorders.

Absence of collective effects in Heisenberg systems with localized magnetic moments

Existence of collective effects in magnetic coupling in ionic solids is studied by mapping spin eigenstates of the Heisenberg and exact nonrelativistic Hamiltonians on cluster models representing KNiF3, K2NiF4, NiO, and La2CuO4. Ab initio techniques are used to estimate the Heisenberg constant J. For clusters with two magnetic centers, the values obtained are about the same for models having more magnetic centers. The absence of collective effects in J strongly suggests that magnetic interactions in this kind of ionic solids are genuinely local and entangle only the two magnetic centers involved.

Status and Potential of Smallholder Livestock Production Systems in Xishuangbanna, southern P.R. China

With Chinas rapid economic development during the last decades, the national demand for livestock products has quadrupled within the last 20 years. Most of that increase in demand has been answered by subsidized industrialized production systems, while million of smallholders, which still provide the larger share of livestock products in the country, have been neglected. Fostering those systems would help China to lower its strong urban migration streams, enhance the livelihood of poorer rural population and provide environmentally save livestock products which have a good chance to satisfy customers demand for ecological food. Despite their importance, China’s smallholder livestock keepers have not yet gained appropriate attention from governmental authorities and researchers. However, profound analysis of those systems is required so that adequate support can lead to a better resource utilization and productivity in the sector. To this aim, this pilot study analyzes smallholder livestock production systems in Xishuangbanna, located in southern China. The area is bordered by Lao and Myanmar and geographically counts as tropical region. Its climate is characterized by dry and temperate winters and hot summers with monsoon rains from May to October. While the regionis plain, at about 500 m asl above sea level in the south, outliers of the Himalaya mountains reach out into the north of Xishuangbanna, where the highest peak reaches 2400 m asl. Except of one larger city, Jinghong, Xishuangbanna mainly is covered by tropical rainforest, areas under agricultural cultivation and villages. The major income is generated through inner-Chinese tourism and agricultural production. Intensive rubber plantations are distinctive for the lowland plains while small-scaled traditional farms are scattered in the mountane regions. In order to determine the current state and possible future chances of smallholder livestock production in that region, this study analyzed the current status of the smallholder livestock sector in the Naban River National Nature Reserve (NRNNR), an area which is largely representative for the whole prefecture. It covers an area of about 50square kilometer and reaches from 470 up to 2400 m asl. About 5500 habitants of different ethnic origin are situated in 24 villages. All data have been collected between October 2007 and May 2010. Three major objectives have been addressed in the study: 1. Classifying existing pig production systems and exploring respective pathways for development 2. Quantifying the performance of pig breeding systemsto identify bottlenecks for production 3. Analyzing past and current buffalo utilization to determine the chances and opportunities of buffalo keeping in the future In order to classify the different pig production s ystems, a baseline survey (n=204, stratified cluster sampling) was carried out to gain data about livestock species, numbers, management practices, cultivated plant species and field sizes as well associo-economic characteristics. Sampling included two clusters at village level (altitude, ethnic affiliation), resulting in 13 clusters of which 13-17 farms were interviewed respectively. Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA) and a two-step clustering algorithm have been applied to identify determining farm characteristics and assort recorded households into classes of livestock production types. The variables keep_sow_yes/no, TLU_pig, TLU_buffalo, size_of_corn_fields, altitude_class, size_of_tea_plantationand size_of_rubber_fieldhave been found to be major determinants for the characterization of the recorded farms. All farms have extensive or semi-intensive livestock production, pigs and buffaloes are predominant livestock species while chicken and aquaculture are available but play subordinate roles for livelihoods. All pig raisers rely on a single local breed, which is known as Small Ear Pig (SMEP) in the region. Three major production systemshave been identified: Livestock-corn based LB; 41%), rubber based (RB; 39%) and pig based (PB;20%) systems. RB farms earn high income from rubber and fatten 1.9 ±1.80 pigs per household (HH), often using purchased pig feed at markets. PB farms own similar sized rubber plantations and raise 4.7 ±2.77 pigs per HH, with fodder mainly being cultivated and collected in theforest. LB farms grow corn, rice and tea and keep 4.6 ±3.32 pigs per HH, also fed with collected and cultivated fodder. Only 29% of all pigs were marketed (LB: 20%; RB: 42%; PB: 25%), average annual mortality was 4.0 ±4.52 pigs per farm (LB: 4.6 ±3.68; RB: 1.9 ±2.14; PB: 7.1 ±10.82). Pig feed mainly consists of banana pseudo stem, corn and rice hives and is prepared in batches about two to three times per week. Such fodder might be sufficient in energy content but lacks appropriate content of protein. Pigs therefore suffer from malnutrition, which becomes most critical in the time before harvest season around October. Farmers reported high occurrences of gastrointestinal parasites in carcasses and often pig stables were wet and filled with manure. Deficits in nutritional and hygienic management are major limits for development and should be the first issues addressed to improve productivity. SME pork was found to be known and referred by local customers in town and by richer lowland farmers. However, high prices and lacking availability of SME pork at local wet-markets were the reasons which limited purchase. If major management constraints are overcome, pig breeders (PB and LB farms) could increase the share of marketed pigs for town markets and provide fatteners to richer RB farmers. RB farmers are interested in fattening pigs for home consumption but do not show any motivation for commercial pig raising. To determine the productivity of input factors in pig production, eproductive performance, feed quality and quantity as well as weight development of pigs under current management were recorded. The data collection included a progeny history survey covering 184 sows and 437 farrows, bi-weekly weighing of 114 pigs during a 16-months time-span on 21 farms (10 LB and 11 PB) as well as the daily recording of feed quality and quantity given to a defined number of pigs on the same 21 farms. Feed samples of all recorded ingredients were analyzed for their respective nutrient content. Since no literature values on thedigestibility of banana pseudo stem – which is a major ingredient of traditional pig feed in NRNNR – were found, a cross-sectional digestibility trial with 2x4 pigs has been conducted on a station in the research area. With the aid of PRY Herd Life Model, all data have been utilized to determine thesystems’ current (Status Quo = SQ) output and the productivity of the input factor “feed” in terms of saleable life weight per kg DM feed intake and monetary value of output per kg DM feed intake.Two improvement scenarios were simulated, assuming 1) that farmers adopt a culling managementthat generates the highest output per unit input (Scenario 1; SC I) and 2) that through improved feeding, selected parameters of reproduction are improved by 30% (SC II). Daily weight gain averaged 55 ± 56 g per day between day 200 and 600. The average feed energy content of traditional feed mix was 14.92 MJ ME. Age at first farrowing averaged 14.5 ± 4.34 months, subsequent inter-farrowing interval was 11.4 ± 2.73 months. Littersize was 5.8 piglets and weaning age was 4.3 ± 0.99 months. 18% of piglets died before weaning. Simulating pig production at actualstatus, it has been show that monetary returns on inputs (ROI) is negative (1:0.67), but improved (1:1.2) when culling management was optimized so that highest output is gained per unit feed input. If in addition better feeding, controlled mating and better resale prices at fixed dates were simulated, ROI further increased to 1:2.45, 1:2.69, 1:2.7 and 1:3.15 for four respective grower groups. Those findings show the potential of pork production, if basic measures of improvement are applied. Futureexploration of the environment, including climate, market-season and culture is required before implementing the recommended measures to ensure a sustainable development of a more effective and resource conserving pork production in the future. The two studies have shown that the production of local SME pigs plays an important role in traditional farms in NRNNR but basic constraints are limiting their productivity. However, relatively easy approaches are sufficient for reaching a notable improvement. Also there is a demand for more SME pork on local markets and, if basic constraints have been overcome, pig farmers could turn into more commercial producers and provide pork to local markets. By that, environmentally safe meat can be offered to sensitive consumers while farmers increase their income and lower the risk of external shocks through a more diverse income generating strategy. Buffaloes have been found to be the second important livestock species on NRNNR farms. While they have been a core resource of mixed smallholderfarms in the past, the expansion of rubber tree plantations and agricultural mechanization are reasons for decreased swamp buffalo numbers today. The third study seeks to predict future utilization of buffaloes on different farm types in NRNNR by analyzing the dynamics of its buffalo population and land use changes over time and calculating labor which is required for keeping buffaloes in view of the traction power which can be utilized for field preparation. The use of buffaloes for field work and the recent development of the egional buffalo population were analyzed through interviews with 184 farmers in 2007/2008 and discussions with 62 buffalo keepers in 2009. While pig based farms (PB; n=37) have abandoned buffalo keeping, 11% of the rubber based farms (RB; n=71) and 100% of the livestock-corn based farms (LB; n=76) kept buffaloes in 2008. Herd size was 2.5 ±1.80 (n=84) buffaloes in early 2008 and 2.2 ±1.69 (n=62) in 2009. Field work on own land was the main reason forkeeping buffaloes (87.3%), but lending work buffaloes to neighbors (79.0%) was also important. Other purposes were transport of goods (16.1%), buffalo trade (11.3%) and meat consumption(6.4%). Buffalo care required 6.2 ±3.00 working hours daily, while annual working time of abuffalo was 294 ±216.6 hours. The area ploughed with buffaloes remained constant during the past 10 years despite an expansion of land cropped per farm. Further rapid replacement of buffaloes by tractors is expected in the near future. While the work economy is drastically improved by the use of tractors, buffaloes still can provide cheap work force and serve as buffer for economic shocks on poorer farms. Especially poor farms, which lack alternative assets that could quickly be liquidizedin times of urgent need for cash, should not abandon buffalo keeping. Livestock has been found to be a major part of small mixed farms in NRNNR. The general productivity was low in both analyzed species, buffaloes and pigs. Productivity of pigs can be improved through basic adjustments in feeding, reproductive and hygienic management, and with external support pig production could further be commercialized to provide pork and weaners to local markets and fattening farms. Buffalo production is relatively time intensive, and only will be of importance in the future to very poor farms and such farms that cultivate very small terraces on steep slopes. These should be encouraged to further keep buffaloes. With such measures, livestock production in NRNNR has good chances to stay competitive in the future.

Automatic Analysis and Synthesis of Controllers for Dynamical Systems Based On P

I present a novel design methodology for the synthesis of automatic controllers, together with a computational environment---the Control Engineer's Workbench---integrating a suite of programs that automatically analyze and design controllers for high-performance, global control of nonlinear systems. This work demonstrates that difficult control synthesis tasks can be automated, using programs that actively exploit and efficiently represent knowledge of nonlinear dynamics and phase space and effectively use the representation to guide and perform the control design. The Control Engineer's Workbench combines powerful numerical and symbolic computations with artificial intelligence reasoning techniques. As a demonstration, the Workbench automatically designed a high-quality maglev controller that outperforms a previous linear design by a factor of 20.

Online Robust 3D Mapping Using Structure from Motion Cues

This paper presents a complete solution for creating accurate 3D textured models from monocular video sequences. The methods are developed within the framework of sequential structure from motion, where a 3D model of the environment is maintained and updated as new visual information becomes available. The camera position is recovered by directly associating the 3D scene model with local image observations. Compared to standard structure from motion techniques, this approach decreases the error accumulation while increasing the robustness to scene occlusions and feature association failures. The obtained 3D information is used to generate high quality, composite visual maps of the scene (mosaics). The visual maps are used to create texture-mapped, realistic views of the scene

Eutrophication control in river-systems: an application of INCA-P to the River Lugg

The Integrated Catchments model of Phosphorus dynamics (INCA-P) was applied to the River Lugg to determine the key factors controlling delivery of phosphorus to the main channel and to quantify the relative contribution of diffuse and point sources to the in-stream phosphorus (P) load under varying hydrological conditions. The model is able to simulate the seasonal variations and inter-annual variations in the in-stream total-phosphorus concentrations. However, difficulties in simulating diffuse inputs arise due to equifinality in the model structure and parameters. The River Lugg is split into upper and lower reaches. The upper reaches are dominated by grassland and woodland, so the patterns in the stream-water total-phosphorus concentrations are typical of diffuse source inputs; application of the model leads to estimates of the relative contribution to the in-stream P load from diffuse and point sources as 9:1. In the lower reaches, which are more intensively cultivated and urbanised, the stream-water total-phosphorus concentration dynamics are influenced more by point-sources; the simulated relative diffuse/point contribution to the in-stream P load is 1: 1. The model set-up and simulations are used to identify the key source-areas of P in the catchment, the P contribution of the Lugg to the River Wye during years with contrasting precipitation inputs, and the uptake and release of P from within-reach sediment. In addition, model scenarios are run to identify the impacts of likely P reductions at sewage treatment works on the in-stream soluble-reactive P concentrations and the suitability of this as a management option is assessed for reducing eutrophication.

Mapping the Sinorhizobium meliloti 1021 solute-binding protein-dependent transportome

The number of solute-binding protein-dependent transporters in rhizobia is dramatically increased compared with the majority of other bacteria so far sequenced. This increase may be due to the high affinity of solute-binding proteins for solutes, permitting the acquisition of a broad range of growth-limiting nutrients from soil and the rhizosphere. The transcriptional induction of these transporters was studied by creating a suite of plasmid and integrated fusions to nearly all ATP-binding cassette (ABC) and tripartite ATP-independent periplasmic (TRAP) transporters of Sinorhizobium meliloti. In total, specific inducers were identified for 76 transport systems, amounting to approximate to 47% of the ABC uptake systems and 53% of the TRAP transporters in S. meliloti. Of these transport systems, 64 are previously uncharacterized in Rhizobia and 24 were induced by solutes not known to be transported by ABC- or TRAP-uptake systems in any organism. This study provides a global expression map of one of the largest transporter families (transportome) and an invaluable tool to both understand their solute specificity and the relationships between members of large paralogous families.

Mapping fibre orientation in complex-shaped biological systems with micrometre resolution by scanning X-ray microdiffraction

A fully automated procedure to extract and to image local fibre orientation in biological tissues from scanning X-ray diffraction is presented. The preferred chitin fibre orientation in the flow sensing system of crickets is determined with high spatial resolution by applying synchrotron radiation based X-ray microbeam diffraction in conjunction with advanced sample sectioning using a UV micro-laser. The data analysis is based on an automated detection of azimuthal diffraction maxima after 2D convolution filtering (smoothing) of the 2D diffraction patterns. Under the assumption of crystallographic fibre symmetry around the morphological fibre axis, the evaluation method allows mapping the three-dimensional orientation of the fibre axes in space. The resulting two-dimensional maps of the local fibre orientations - together with the complex shape of the flow sensing system - may be useful for a better understanding of the mechanical optimization of such tissues.

The exclusive use of integer-order spots for LEED-IV structure analysis of adsorption systems: p(2×2)-O on Ni{111}

Two different ways of performing low-energy electron diffraction (LEED) structure determinations for the p(2 x 2) structure of oxygen on Ni {111} are compared: a conventional LEED-IV structure analysis using integer and fractional-order IV-curves collected at normal incidence and an analysis using only integer-order IV-curves collected at three different angles of incidence. A clear discrimination between different adsorption sites can be achieved by the latter approach as well as the first and the best fit structures of both analyses are within each other's error bars (all less than 0.1 angstrom). The conventional analysis is more sensitive to the adsorbate coordinates and lateral parameters of the substrate atoms whereas the integer-order-based analysis is more sensitive to the vertical coordinates of substrate atoms. Adsorbate-related contributions to the intensities of integer-order diffraction spots are independent of the state of long-range order in the adsorbate layer. These results show, therefore, that for lattice-gas disordered adsorbate layers, for which only integer-order spots are observed, similar accuracy and reliability can be achieved as for ordered adsorbate layers, provided the data set is large enough.

Final report on research project PS2010, proof of concept of automated mapping of weeds in arable fields

Many weeds occur in patches but farmers frequently spray whole fields to control the weeds in these patches. Given a geo-referenced weed map, technology exists to confine spraying to these patches. Adoption of patch spraying by arable farmers has, however, been negligible partly due to the difficulty of constructing weed maps. Building on previous DEFRA and HGCA projects, this proposal aims to develop and evaluate a machine vision system to automate the weed mapping process. The project thereby addresses the principal technical stumbling block to widespread adoption of site specific weed management (SSWM). The accuracy of weed identification by machine vision based on a single field survey may be inadequate to create herbicide application maps. We therefore propose to test the hypothesis that sufficiently accurate weed maps can be constructed by integrating information from geo-referenced images captured automatically at different times of the year during normal field activities. Accuracy of identification will also be increased by utilising a priori knowledge of weeds present in fields. To prove this concept, images will be captured from arable fields on two farms and processed offline to identify and map the weeds, focussing especially on black-grass, wild oats, barren brome, couch grass and cleavers. As advocated by Lutman et al. (2002), the approach uncouples the weed mapping and treatment processes and builds on the observation that patches of these weeds are quite stable in arable fields. There are three main aspects to the project. 1) Machine vision hardware. Hardware component parts of the system are one or more cameras connected to a single board computer (Concurrent Solutions LLC) and interfaced with an accurate Global Positioning System (GPS) supplied by Patchwork Technology. The camera(s) will take separate measurements for each of the three primary colours of visible light (red, green and blue) in each pixel. The basic proof of concept can be achieved in principle using a single camera system, but in practice systems with more than one camera may need to be installed so that larger fractions of each field can be photographed. Hardware will be reviewed regularly during the project in response to feedback from other work packages and updated as required. 2) Image capture and weed identification software. The machine vision system will be attached to toolbars of farm machinery so that images can be collected during different field operations. Images will be captured at different ground speeds, in different directions and at different crop growth stages as well as in different crop backgrounds. Having captured geo-referenced images in the field, image analysis software will be developed to identify weed species by Murray State and Reading Universities with advice from The Arable Group. A wide range of pattern recognition and in particular Bayesian Networks will be used to advance the state of the art in machine vision-based weed identification and mapping. Weed identification algorithms used by others are inadequate for this project as we intend to collect and correlate images collected at different growth stages. Plants grown for this purpose by Herbiseed will be used in the first instance. In addition, our image capture and analysis system will include plant characteristics such as leaf shape, size, vein structure, colour and textural pattern, some of which are not detectable by other machine vision systems or are omitted by their algorithms. Using such a list of features observable using our machine vision system, we will determine those that can be used to distinguish weed species of interest. 3) Weed mapping. Geo-referenced maps of weeds in arable fields (Reading University and Syngenta) will be produced with advice from The Arable Group and Patchwork Technology. Natural infestations will be mapped in the fields but we will also introduce specimen plants in pots to facilitate more rigorous system evaluation and testing. Manual weed maps of the same fields will be generated by Reading University, Syngenta and Peter Lutman so that the accuracy of automated mapping can be assessed. The principal hypothesis and concept to be tested is that by combining maps from several surveys, a weed map with acceptable accuracy for endusers can be produced. If the concept is proved and can be commercialised, systems could be retrofitted at low cost onto existing farm machinery. The outputs of the weed mapping software would then link with the precision farming options already built into many commercial sprayers, allowing their use for targeted, site-specific herbicide applications. Immediate economic benefits would, therefore, arise directly from reducing herbicide costs. SSWM will also reduce the overall pesticide load on the crop and so may reduce pesticide residues in food and drinking water, and reduce adverse impacts of pesticides on non-target species and beneficials. Farmers may even choose to leave unsprayed some non-injurious, environmentally-beneficial, low density weed infestations. These benefits fit very well with the anticipated legislation emerging in the new EU Thematic Strategy for Pesticides which will encourage more targeted use of pesticides and greater uptake of Integrated Crop (Pest) Management approaches, and also with the requirements of the Water Framework Directive to reduce levels of pesticides in water bodies. The greater precision of weed management offered by SSWM is therefore a key element in preparing arable farming systems for the future, where policy makers and consumers want to minimise pesticide use and the carbon footprint of farming while maintaining food production and security. The mapping technology could also be used on organic farms to identify areas of fields needing mechanical weed control thereby reducing both carbon footprints and also damage to crops by, for example, spring tines. Objective i. To develop a prototype machine vision system for automated image capture during agricultural field operations; ii. To prove the concept that images captured by the machine vision system over a series of field operations can be processed to identify and geo-reference specific weeds in the field; iii. To generate weed maps from the geo-referenced, weed plants/patches identified in objective (ii).

Anticipating future risk in social-ecological systems using fuzzy cognitive mapping: the case of wildfire in the Chiquitania, Bolivia

Understanding complex social-ecological systems, and anticipating how they may respond to rapid change, requires an approach that incorporates environmental, social, economic, and policy factors, usually in a context of fragmented data availability. We employed fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) to integrate these factors in the assessment of future wildfire risk in the Chiquitania region, Bolivia. In this region, dealing with wildfires is becoming increasingly challenging due to reinforcing feedbacks between multiple drivers. We conducted semi-structured interviews and constructed different FCMs in focus groups to understand the regional dynamics of wildfire from diverse perspectives. We used FCM modelling to evaluate possible adaptation scenarios in the context of future drier climatic conditions. Scenarios also considered possible failure to respond in time to the emergent risk. This approach proved of great potential to support decision-making for risk management. It helped identify key forcing variables and generate insights into potential risks and trade-offs of different strategies. All scenarios showed increased wildfire risk in the event of more droughts. The ‘Hands-off’ scenario resulted in amplified impacts driven by intensifying trends, affecting particularly the agricultural production. The ‘Fire management’ scenario, which adopted a bottom-up approach to improve controlled burning, showed less trade-offs between wildfire risk reduction and production compared to the ‘Fire suppression’ scenario. Findings highlighted the importance of considering strategies that involve all actors who use fire, and the need to nest these strategies for a more systemic approach to manage wildfire risk. The FCM model could be used as a decision-support tool and serve as a ‘boundary object’ to facilitate collaboration and integration of different forms of knowledge and perceptions of fire in the region. This approach has also the potential to support decisions in other dynamic frontier landscapes around the world that are facing increased risk of large wildfires.