988 resultados para Ozone layer depletion.


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In the early 19th century, industrial revolution was fuelled mainly by the development of machine based manufacturing and the increased use of coal. Later on, the focal point shifted to oil, thanks to the mass-production technology, ease of transport/storage and also the (less) environmental issues in comparison with the coal!! By the dawn of 21st century, due to the depletion of oil reserves and pollution resulting from heavy usage of oil the demand for clean energy was on the rising edge. This ever growing demand has propelled research on photovoltaics which has emerged successful and is currently being looked up to as the only solace for meeting our present day energy requirements. The proven PV technology on commercial scale is based on silicon but the recent boom in the demand for photovoltaic modules has in turn created a shortage in supply of silicon. Also the technology is still not accessible to common man. This has onset the research and development work on moderately efficient, eco-friendly and low cost photovoltaic devices (solar cells). Thin film photovoltaic modules have made a breakthrough entry in the PV market on these grounds. Thin films have the potential to revolutionize the present cost structure of solar cells by eliminating the use of the expensive silicon wafers that alone accounts for above 50% of total module manufacturing cost.Well developed thin film photovoltaic technologies are based on amorphous silicon, CdTe and CuInSe2. However the cell fabrication process using amorphous silicon requires handling of very toxic gases (like phosphene, silane and borane) and costly technologies for cell fabrication. In the case of other materials too, there are difficulties like maintaining stoichiometry (especially in large area films), alleged environmental hazards and high cost of indium. Hence there is an urgent need for the development of materials that are easy to prepare, eco-friendly and available in abundance. The work presented in this thesis is an attempt towards the development of a cost-effective, eco-friendly material for thin film solar cells using simple economically viable technique. Sn-based window and absorber layers deposited using Chemical Spray Pyrolysis (CSP) technique have been chosen for the purpose

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A case of long-range transport of a biomass burning plume from Alaska to Europe is analyzed using a Lagrangian approach. This plume was sampled several times in the free troposphere over North America, the North Atlantic and Europe by three different aircraft during the IGAC Lagrangian 2K4 experiment which was part of the ICARTT/ITOP measurement intensive in summer 2004. Measurements in the plume showed enhanced values of CO, VOCs and NOy, mainly in form of PAN. Observed O3 levels increased by 17 ppbv over 5 days. A photochemical trajectory model, CiTTyCAT, was used to examine processes responsible for the chemical evolution of the plume. The model was initialized with upwind data and compared with downwind measurements. The influence of high aerosol loading on photolysis rates in the plume was investigated using in situ aerosol measurements in the plume and lidar retrievals of optical depth as input into a photolysis code (Fast-J), run in the model. Significant impacts on photochemistry are found with a decrease of 18% in O3 production and 24% in O3 destruction over 5 days when including aerosols. The plume is found to be chemically active with large O3 increases attributed primarily to PAN decomposition during descent of the plume toward Europe. The predicted O3 changes are very dependent on temperature changes during transport and also on water vapor levels in the lower troposphere which can lead to O3 destruction. Simulation of mixing/dilution was necessary to reproduce observed pollutant levels in the plume. Mixing was simulated using background concentrations from measurements in air masses in close proximity to the plume, and mixing timescales (averaging 6.25 days) were derived from CO changes. Observed and simulated O3/CO correlations in the plume were also compared in order to evaluate the photochemistry in the model. Observed slopes change from negative to positive over 5 days. This change, which can be attributed largely to photochemistry, is well reproduced by multiple model runs even if slope values are slightly underestimated suggesting a small underestimation in modeled photochemical O3 production. The possible impact of this biomass burning plume on O3 levels in the European boundary layer was also examined by running the model for a further 5 days and comparing with data collected at surface sites, such as Jungfraujoch, which showed small O3 increases and elevated CO levels. The model predicts significant changes in O3 over the entire 10 day period due to photochemistry but the signal is largely lost because of the effects of dilution. However, measurements in several other BB plumes over Europe show that O3 impact of Alaskan fires can be potentially significant over Europe.

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Climate model simulations of past and future climate invariably contain prescribed zonal mean stratospheric ozone. While the effects of zonal asymmetry in ozone have been examined in the Northern Hemisphere, much greater zonal asymmetry occurs in the Southern Hemisphere during the break up of the Antarctic ozone hole. We prescribe a realistic three-dimensional distribution of ozone in a high vertical resolution atmospheric model and compare results with a simulation containing zonal mean ozone. Prescribing the three dimensional ozone distribution results in a cooling of the stratosphere and upper troposphere comparable to that caused by ozone depletion itself. Our results suggest that changes in the zonal asymmetry of ozone have had important impacts on Southern Hemisphere climate, and will continue to do so in the future.

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The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv. Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

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This paper aims to summarise the current performance of ozone data assimilation (DA) systems, to show where they can be improved, and to quantify their errors. It examines 11 sets of ozone analyses from 7 different DA systems. Two are numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems based on general circulation models (GCMs); the other five use chemistry transport models (CTMs). The systems examined contain either linearised or detailed ozone chemistry, or no chemistry at all. In most analyses, MIPAS (Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding) ozone data are assimilated; two assimilate SCIAMACHY (Scanning Imaging Absorption Spectrometer for Atmospheric Chartography) observations instead. Analyses are compared to independent ozone observations covering the troposphere, stratosphere and lower mesosphere during the period July to November 2003. Biases and standard deviations are largest, and show the largest divergence between systems, in the troposphere, in the upper-troposphere/lower-stratosphere, in the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere, and the Antarctic ozone hole region. However, in any particular area, apart from the troposphere, at least one system can be found that agrees well with independent data. In general, none of the differences can be linked to the assimilation technique (Kalman filter, three or four dimensional variational methods, direct inversion) or the system (CTM or NWP system). Where results diverge, a main explanation is the way ozone is modelled. It is important to correctly model transport at the tropical tropopause, to avoid positive biases and excessive structure in the ozone field. In the southern hemisphere ozone hole, only the analyses which correctly model heterogeneous ozone depletion are able to reproduce the near-complete ozone destruction over the pole. In the upper-stratosphere and mesosphere (above 5 hPa), some ozone photochemistry schemes caused large but easily remedied biases. The diurnal cycle of ozone in the mesosphere is not captured, except by the one system that includes a detailed treatment of mesospheric chemistry. These results indicate that when good observations are available for assimilation, the first priority for improving ozone DA systems is to improve the models. The analyses benefit strongly from the good quality of the MIPAS ozone observations. Using the analyses as a transfer standard, it is seen that MIPAS is similar to 5% higher than HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) in the mid and upper stratosphere and mesosphere (above 30 hPa), and of order 10% higher than ozonesonde and HALOE in the lower stratosphere (100 hPa to 30 hPa). Analyses based on SCIAMACHY total column are almost as good as the MIPAS analyses; analyses based on SCIAMACHY limb profiles are worse in some areas, due to problems in the SCIAMACHY retrievals.

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Nitrogen oxide biogenic emissions from soils are driven by soil and environmental parameters. The relationship between these parameters and NO fluxes is highly non linear. A new algorithm, based on a neural network calculation, is used to reproduce the NO biogenic emissions linked to precipitations in the Sahel on the 6 August 2006 during the AMMA campaign. This algorithm has been coupled in the surface scheme of a coupled chemistry dynamics model (MesoNH Chemistry) to estimate the impact of the NO emissions on NOx and O3 formation in the lower troposphere for this particular episode. Four different simulations on the same domain and at the same period are compared: one with anthropogenic emissions only, one with soil NO emissions from a static inventory, at low time and space resolution, one with NO emissions from neural network, and one with NO from neural network plus lightning NOx. The influence of NOx from lightning is limited to the upper troposphere. The NO emission from soils calculated with neural network responds to changes in soil moisture giving enhanced emissions over the wetted soil, as observed by aircraft measurements after the passing of a convective system. The subsequent enhancement of NOx and ozone is limited to the lowest layers of the atmosphere in modelling, whereas measurements show higher concentrations above 1000 m. The neural network algorithm, applied in the Sahel region for one particular day of the wet season, allows an immediate response of fluxes to environmental parameters, unlike static emission inventories. Stewart et al (2008) is a companion paper to this one which looks at NOx and ozone concentrations in the boundary layer as measured on a research aircraft, examines how they vary with respect to the soil moisture, as indicated by surface temperature anomalies, and deduces NOx fluxes. In this current paper the model-derived results are compared to the observations and calculated fluxes presented by Stewart et al (2008).

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Ozone and its precursors were measured on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft during the monsoon season 2006 as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign. One of the main features observed in the west African boundary layer is the increase of the ozone mixing ratios from 25 ppbv over the forested area (south of 12° N) up to 40 ppbv over the Sahelian area. We employ a two-dimensional (latitudinal versus vertical) meteorological model coupled with an O3-NOx-VOC chemistry scheme to simulate the distribution of trace gases over West Africa during the monsoon season and to analyse the processes involved in the establishment of such a gradient. Including an additional source of NO over the Sahelian region to account for NO emitted by soils we simulate a mean NOx concentration of 0.7 ppbv at 16° N versus 0.3 ppbv over the vegetated region further south in reasonable agreement with the observations. As a consequence, ozone is photochemically produced with a rate of 0.25 ppbv h−1 over the vegetated region whilst it reaches up to 0.75 ppbv h−1 at 16° N. We find that the modelled gradient is due to a combination of enhanced deposition to vegetation, which decreases the ozone levels by up to 11 pbbv, and the aforementioned enhanced photochemical production north of 12° N. The peroxy radicals required for this enhanced production in the north come from the oxidation of background CO and CH4 as well as from VOCs. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the background CH4 and partially oxidised VOCs, produced from the oxidation of isoprene emitted from the vegetation in the south, contribute around 5–6 ppbv to the ozone gradient. These results suggest that the northward transport of trace gases by the monsoon flux, especially during nighttime, can have a significant, though secondary, role in determining the ozone gradient in the boundary layer. Convection, anthropogenic emissions and NO produced from lightning do not contribute to the establishment of the discussed ozone gradient.

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Ozone and its precursors were measured on board the Facility for Airborne Atmospheric Measurements (FAAM) BAe 146 Atmospheric Research Aircraft during the monsoon season 2006 as part of the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) campaign. One of the main features observed in the west African boundary layer is the increase of the ozone mixing ratios from 25 ppbv over the forested area (south of 12 degrees N) up to 40 ppbv over the Sahelian area. We employ a two-dimensional ( latitudinal versus vertical) meteorological model coupled with an O-3-NOx-VOC chemistry scheme to simulate the distribution of trace gases over West Africa during the monsoon season and to analyse the processes involved in the establishment of such a gradient. Including an additional source of NO over the Sahelian region to account for NO emitted by soils we simulate a mean NOx concentration of 0.7 ppbv at 16 degrees N versus 0.3 ppbv over the vegetated region further south in reasonable agreement with the observations. As a consequence, ozone is photochemically produced with a rate of 0.25 ppbv h(-1) over the vegetated region whilst it reaches up to 0.75 ppbv h(-1) at 16 degrees N. We find that the modelled gradient is due to a combination of enhanced deposition to vegetation, which decreases the ozone levels by up to 11 pbbv, and the aforementioned enhanced photochemical production north of 12 degrees N. The peroxy radicals required for this enhanced production in the north come from the oxidation of background CO and CH4 as well as from VOCs. Sensitivity studies reveal that both the background CH4 and partially oxidised VOCs, produced from the oxidation of isoprene emitted from the vegetation in the south, contribute around 5-6 ppbv to the ozone gradient. These results suggest that the northward transport of trace gases by the monsoon flux, especially during nighttime, can have a significant, though secondary, role in determining the ozone gradient in the boundary layer. Convection, anthropogenic emissions and NO produced from lightning do not contribute to the establishment of the discussed ozone gradient.

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The NERC UK SOLAS-funded Reactive Halogens in the Marine Boundary Layer (RHaMBLe) programme comprised three field experiments. This manuscript presents an overview of the measurements made within the two simultaneous remote experiments conducted in the tropical North Atlantic in May and June 2007. Measurements were made from two mobile and one ground-based platforms. The heavily instrumented cruise D319 on the RRS Discovery from Lisbon, Portugal to São Vicente, Cape Verde and back to Falmouth, UK was used to characterise the spatial distribution of boundary layer components likely to play a role in reactive halogen chemistry. Measurements onboard the ARSF Dornier aircraft were used to allow the observations to be interpreted in the context of their vertical distribution and to confirm the interpretation of atmospheric structure in the vicinity of the Cape Verde islands. Long-term ground-based measurements at the Cape Verde Atmospheric Observatory (CVAO) on São Vicente were supplemented by long-term measurements of reactive halogen species and characterisation of additional trace gas and aerosol species during the intensive experimental period. This paper presents a summary of the measurements made within the RHaMBLe remote experiments and discusses them in their meteorological and chemical context as determined from these three platforms and from additional meteorological analyses. Air always arrived at the CVAO from the North East with a range of air mass origins (European, Atlantic and North American continental). Trace gases were present at stable and fairly low concentrations with the exception of a slight increase in some anthropogenic components in air of North American origin, though NOx mixing ratios during this period remained below 20 pptv (note the non-IUPAC adoption in this manuscript of pptv and ppbv, equivalent to pmol mol−1 and nmol mol−1 to reflect common practice). Consistency with these air mass classifications is observed in the time series of soluble gas and aerosol composition measurements, with additional identification of periods of slightly elevated dust concentrations consistent with the trajectories passing over the African continent. The CVAO is shown to be broadly representative of the wider North Atlantic marine boundary layer; measurements of NO, O3 and black carbon from the ship are consistent with a clean Northern Hemisphere marine background. Aerosol composition measurements do not indicate elevated organic material associated with clean marine air. Closer to the African coast, black carbon and NO levels start to increase, indicating greater anthropogenic influence. Lower ozone in this region is possibly associated with the increased levels of measured halocarbons, associated with the nutrient rich waters of the Mauritanian upwelling. Bromide and chloride deficits in coarse mode aerosol at both the CVAO and on D319 and the continuous abundance of inorganic gaseous halogen species at CVAO indicate significant reactive cycling of halogens. Aircraft measurements of O3 and CO show that surface measurements are representative of the entire boundary layer in the vicinity both in diurnal variability and absolute levels. Above the inversion layer similar diurnal behaviour in O3 and CO is observed at lower mixing ratios in the air that had originated from south of Cape Verde, possibly from within the ITCZ. ECMWF calculations on two days indicate very different boundary layer depths and aircraft flights over the ship replicate this, giving confidence in the calculated boundary layer depth.

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We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KM-GAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KM-GAP is based on the PRA model framework (Pöschl-Rudich-Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modelled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmo- spheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270 K is close to unity. Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for eðcient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

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We present a novel kinetic multi-layer model for gas-particle interactions in aerosols and clouds (KMGAP) that treats explicitly all steps of mass transport and chemical reaction of semi-volatile species partitioning between gas phase, particle surface and particle bulk. KMGAP is based on the PRA model framework (P¨oschl-Rudich- Ammann, 2007), and it includes gas phase diffusion, reversible adsorption, surface reactions, bulk diffusion and reaction, as well as condensation, evaporation and heat transfer. The size change of atmospheric particles and the temporal evolution and spatial profile of the concentration of individual chemical species can be modeled along with gas uptake and accommodation coefficients. Depending on the complexity of the investigated system and the computational constraints, unlimited numbers of semi-volatile species, chemical reactions, and physical processes can be treated, and the model shall help to bridge gaps in the understanding and quantification of multiphase chemistry and microphysics in atmospheric aerosols and clouds. In this study we demonstrate how KM-GAP can be used to analyze, interpret and design experimental investigations of changes in particle size and chemical composition in response to condensation, evaporation, and chemical reaction. For the condensational growth of water droplets, our kinetic model results provide a direct link between laboratory observations and molecular dynamic simulations, confirming that the accommodation coefficient of water at 270K is close to unity (Winkler et al., 2006). Literature data on the evaporation of dioctyl phthalate as a function of particle size and time can be reproduced, and the model results suggest that changes in the experimental conditions like aerosol particle concentration and chamber geometry may influence the evaporation kinetics and can be optimized for efficient probing of specific physical effects and parameters. With regard to oxidative aging of organic aerosol particles, we illustrate how the formation and evaporation of volatile reaction products like nonanal can cause a decrease in the size of oleic acid particles exposed to ozone.

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We report a clear transition through a reconnection layer at the low-latitude magnetopause which shows a complete traversal across all reconnected field lines during northwestward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) conditions. The associated plasma populations confirm details of the electron and ion mixing and the time history and acceleration through the current layer. This case has low magnetic shear with a strong guide field and the reconnection layer contains a single density depletion layer on the magnetosheath side which we suggest results from nearly field-aligned magnetosheath flows. Within the reconnection boundary layer, there are two plasma boundaries, close to the inferred separatrices on the magnetosphere and magnetosheath sides (Ssp and Ssh) and two boundaries associated with the Alfvén waves (or Rotational Discontinuities, RDsp and RDsh). The data are consistent with these being launched from the reconnection site and the plasma distributions are well ordered and suggestive of the time elapsed since reconnection of the field lines observed. In each sub-layer between the boundaries the plasma distribution is different and is centered around the current sheet, responsible for magnetosheath acceleration. We show evidence for a velocity dispersion effect in the electron anisotropy that is consistent with the time elapsed since reconnection. In addition, new evidence is presented for the occurrence of partial reflection of magnetosheath electrons at the magnetopause current layer.

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Monthly averaged surface erythemal solar irradiance (UV-Ery) for local noon from 1960 to 2100 has been derived using radiative transfer calculations and projections of ozone, temperature and cloud change from 14 chemistry climate models (CCM), as part of the CCMVal-2 activity of SPARC. Our calculations show the influence of ozone depletion and recovery on erythemal irradiance. In addition, we investigate UV-Ery changes caused by climate change due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The latter include effects of both stratospheric ozone and cloud changes. The derived estimates provide a global picture of the likely changes in erythemal irradiance during the 21st century. Uncertainties arise from the assumed scenarios, different parameterizations – particularly of cloud effects on UV-Ery – and the spread in the CCM projections. The calculations suggest that relative to 1980, annually mean UV-Ery in the 2090s will be on average 12% lower at high latitudes in both hemispheres, 3% lower at mid latitudes, and marginally higher (1 %) in the tropics. The largest reduction (16 %) is projected for Antarctica in October. Cloud effects are responsible for 2–3% of the reduction in UV-Ery at high latitudes, but they slightly moderate it at mid-latitudes (1 %). The year of return of erythemal irradiance to values of certain milestones (1965 and 1980) depends largely on the return of column ozone to the corresponding levels and is associated with large uncertainties mainly due to the spread of the model projections. The inclusion of cloud effects in the calculations has only a small effect of the return years. At mid and high latitudes, changes in clouds and stratospheric ozone transport by global circulation changes due to greenhouse gases will sustain the erythemal irradiance at levels below those in 1965, despite the removal of ozone depleting substances.

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The impact of stratospheric ozone on the tropospheric general circulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) is examined with a set of chemistry‐climate models participating in the Stratospheric Processes and their Role in Climate (SPARC)/Chemistry‐Climate Model Validation project phase 2 (CCMVal‐2). Model integrations of both the past and future climates reveal the crucial role of stratospheric ozone in driving SH circulation change: stronger ozone depletion in late spring generally leads to greater poleward displacement and intensification of the tropospheric midlatitude jet, and greater expansion of the SH Hadley cell in the summer. These circulation changes are systematic as poleward displacement of the jet is typically accompanied by intensification of the jet and expansion of the Hadley cell. Overall results are compared with coupled models participating in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4), and possible mechanisms are discussed. While the tropospheric circulation response appears quasi‐linearly related to stratospheric ozone changes, the quantitative response to a given forcing varies considerably from one model to another. This scatter partly results from differences in model climatology. It is shown that poleward intensification of the westerly jet is generally stronger in models whose climatological jet is biased toward lower latitudes. This result is discussed in the context of quasi‐geostrophic zonal mean dynamics.

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Coupled chemistry‐climate model simulations covering the recent past and continuing throughout the 21st century have been completed with a range of different models. Common forcings are used for the halogen amounts and greenhouse gas concentrations, as expected under the Montreal Protocol (with amendments) and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1b Scenario. The simulations of the Antarctic ozone hole are compared using commonly used diagnostics: the minimum ozone, the maximum area of ozone below 220 DU, and the ozone mass deficit below 220 DU. Despite the fact that the processes responsible for ozone depletion are reasonably well understood, a wide range of results is obtained. Comparisons with observations indicate that one of the reasons for the model underprediction in ozone hole area is the tendency for models to underpredict, by up to 35%, the area of low temperatures responsible for polar stratospheric cloud formation. Models also typically have species gradients that are too weak at the edge of the polar vortex, suggesting that there is too much mixing of air across the vortex edge. Other models show a high bias in total column ozone which restricts the size of the ozone hole (defined by a 220 DU threshold). The results of those models which agree best with observations are examined in more detail. For several models the ozone hole does not disappear this century but a small ozone hole of up to three million square kilometers continues to occur in most springs even after 2070.