Forecasting success on large projects : developing reliable scales to predict multiple perspectives by multiple stakeholders over multiple time frames

Our aim is to develop a set of leading performance indicators to enable managers of large projects to forecast during project execution how various stakeholders will perceive success months or even years into the operation of the output. Large projects have many stakeholders who have different objectives for the project, its output, and the business objectives they will deliver. The output of a large project may have a lifetime that lasts for years, or even decades, and ultimate impacts that go beyond its immediate operation. How different stakeholders perceive success can change with time, and so the project manager needs leading performance indicators that go beyond the traditional triple constraint to forecast how key stakeholders will perceive success months or even years later. In this article, we develop a model for project success that identifies how project stakeholders might perceive success in the months and years following a project. We identify success or failure factors that will facilitate or mitigate against achievement of those success criteria, and a set of potential leading performance indicators that forecast how stakeholders will perceive success during the life of the project's output. We conducted a scale development study with 152 managers of large projects and identified two project success factor scales and seven stakeholder satisfaction scales that can be used by project managers to predict stakeholder satisfaction on projects and so may be used by the managers of large projects for the basis of project control.

Things that fall over : Women's playwriting, poetics and the (anti-)musical

Abstract: This study explores the contradictions and ambivalences experienced by a working artist at a time when her age, her gender, and broader cultural shifts are all potential obstacles or liabilities to creative flourishing. It is the product of practice-led research into the creative process from the perspective of the female "late bloomer". In this phrase, I have in mind the mature-aged woman who is, in mid-life, suddenly seized with inspiration and fired with creative energy. At its heart is the question: If an Elizabeth Jolley were in our midst today, would we hear from her? The result is a full-length libretto and accompanying exegetical binoculars in the form of a Preface and an Afterword. The creative work, Things That Fall Over (TTFO) is conceived in two parts: a libretto and oratorio for performance. It begins as a play, but over three acts and into a coda, the work becomes something entirely other - an (anti-) musical. The work grew from a personal interest in the nexus between women, ageing and creative practice, via investigation into the oeuvre of two Australian artists, Elizabeth Jolley, author, first published at age 53, and Rosalie Gascoigne, sculptor, first exhibited at 58. A second strand of the research grew from a fascination for the stage musical, especially in its more alternative modes as in the hands of Stephen Sondheim, or in more provocative manifestations as witnessed in recent Tony Award winners Avenue Q and The Book of Mormon. Contextually, this research is conducted at a time when anecdotal evidence suggests that women’s work in the performing arts and in literature is being pushed to the margins after a late twentieth century Golden Age on page and stage. Using hybrid practice-led methodologies - bricolage, log-keeping - and working within queer and feminist paradigms, this study seeks to counter that push with a new work that is all-female, part-pantomime, part monstrous allegory. In illuminating the creative process of a mature-aged playwright it concludes that hybrid and interstitial forms still offer an inclusive and democratic space in which voices that may otherwise be muted will continue to be heard.

'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

4000 years of phenotypic change in an island bird: heterogeneity of selection over three microevolutionary timescales.

Pronounced phenotypic shifts in island populations are typically attributed to natural selection, but reconstructing heterogeneity in long-term selective regimes remains a challenge. We examined a scenario of divergence proposed for species colonizing a new environment, involving directional selection with a rapid shift to a new optimum and subsequent stabilization. We provide some of the first empirical evidence for this model of evolution using morphological data from three timescales in an island bird, Zosterops lateralis chlorocephalus. In less than four millennia since separation from its mainland counterpart, a substantial increase in body size has occurred and was probably achieved in fewer than 500 generations after colonization. Over four recent decades, morphological traits have fluctuated in size but showed no significant directional trends, suggesting maintenance of a relatively stable phenotype. Finally, estimates of contemporary selection gradients indicated generally weak directional selection. These results provide a rare description of heterogeneity in long-term natural regimes, and caution that observations of current selection may be of limited value in inferring mechanisms of past adaptation due to a lack of constancy even over short time-frames.

Mixed convection over a horizontal plate with streamwise non-uniform surface temperature distribution

Numerical investigation on mixed convection of a two-dimensional incompressible laminar flow over a horizontal flat plate with streamwise sinusoidal distribution of surface temperature has been performed for different values of Rayleigh number, Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature for constant Prandtl number and amplitude of periodic temperature. Finite element method adapted to rectangular non-uniform mesh elements by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm basis numerical scheme has been employed. The investigating parameters are the Rayleigh number, the Reynolds number and frequency of periodic temperature. The effect of variation of individual investigating parameters on mixed convection flow characteristics has been studied to observe the hydrodynamic and thermal behavior for while keeping the other parameters constant. The fluid considered in this study is air with Prandtl number 0.72. The results are obtained for the Rayleigh number range of 102 to 104, Reynolds number ranging from 1 to 100 and the frequency of periodic temperature from 1 to 5. Isotherms, streamlines, average and local Nusselt numbers are presented to show the effect of the different values of aforementioned investigating parameters on fluid flow and heat transfer.

Perceptions of over-accommodation used by nurses in communication with the elderly

The aim of the study was to determine how aspects of communication between nurses and the elderly were perceived by elderly people, future nurses, and uninvolved observers. Respondents (elderly women and nursing and psychology students) rated videotapes of interactions between a nurse and an elderly woman on three dimensions: patronizing, status, and solidarity. Three communication strategies and their combinations were represented in the vignettes. Because the strategies presented were perceived as patronizing by all three groups, no group effect was found for the patronizing dimension. The results show clear group differences particularly between the nursing students and the elderly, with the elderly rating many of the strategies more positively than did the nursing students. The results are discussed in relation to previous evaluations of overaccommodation, and implications of the different perceptions are considered.

A reliable real-time transport protocol for control systems over wireless networks

Deploying networked control systems (NCSs) over wireless networks is becoming more and more popular. However, the widely-used transport layer protocols, Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) and User Datagram Protocol (UDP), are not designed for real-time applications. Therefore, they may not be suitable for many NCS application scenarios because of their limitations on reliability and/or delay performance, which real-control systems concern. Considering a typical type of NCSs with periodic and sporadic real-time traffic, this paper proposes a highly reliable transport layer protocol featuring a packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism and a prioritized transmission mechanism. The packet loss-sensitive retransmission mechanism is designed to improve the reliability of all traffic flows. And the prioritized transmission mechanism offers differentiated services for periodic and sporadic flows. Simulation results show that the proposed protocol has better reliability than UDP and improved delay performance than TCP over wireless networks, particularly when channel errors and congestions occur.

Shear thinning and shear thickening non-Newtonian confined fluid flow over rotating cylinder

In present work, numerical solution is performed to study the confined flow of power-law non Newtonian fluids over a rotating cylinder. The main purpose is to evaluate drag and thermal coefficients as functions of the related governing dimensionless parameters, namely, power-law index (0.5 ≤ n ≤ 1.4), dimensionless rotational velocity (0 ≤ α ≤ 6) and the Reynolds number (100 ≤ Re ≤ 500). Over the range of Reynolds number, the flow is known to be steady. Results denoted that the increment of power law index and rotational velocity increases the drag coefficient due to momentum diffusivity improvement which is responsible for low rate of heat transfer, because the thicker the boundary layer, the lower the heat transfer is implemented.

Disproportionate over-representation of Indigenous students in New South Wales government special schools

A significant gap exists in the Australian research literature on the disproportionate over-representation of minority groups in special education. The aim of this paper is to make a contribution to the research evidence-base by sketching an outline of the issue as it presents in Australia’s largest education system in the state of New South Wales. Findings from this research show that Indigenous students are equally represented in special schools enrolling students with autism, physical, sensory, and intellectual disabilities, but significantly over-represented in special schools enrolling students under the categories of emotional disturbance, behaviour disorder and juvenile detention. Factors that might influence the disproportionate over-representation of Indigenous children and young people are discussed, and based on these observations, some practical implications for policy and practice are provided.

Analytical Solution of a Walters’ Liquid B Flow Over a Linear Stretching Sheet in a Porous Medium

This chapter represents the analytical solution of two-dimensional linear stretching sheet problem involving a non-Newtonian liquid and suction by (a) invoking the boundary layer approximation and (b) using this result to solve the stretching sheet problem without using boundary layer approximation. The basic boundary layer equations for momentum, which are non-linear partial differential equations, are converted into non-linear ordinary differential equations by means of similarity transformation. The results reveal a new analytical procedure for solving the boundary layer equations arising in a linear stretching sheet problem involving a non-Newtonian liquid (Walters’ liquid B). The present study throws light on the analytical solution of a class of boundary layer equations arising in the stretching sheet problem.

Catalytic cracking of tars derived from rice hull gasification over goethite and palygorskite

Palygorskite (P), goethite (G), and hydrothermally synthesized goethite (HG) were used as supports for Fe and Ni. The catalytic activity of these materials was investigated involving in P, G and HG (supported Fe and Ni) for catalytic decomposition of biomass tar derived from rice hull gasification. The materials were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) with an energy dispersive X-ray (EDS). The catalytic activity of P for removal of tar was significantly better than that of G and HG. However, the activity of G with 6 mass% Ni labeled as Ni6/G (tar conversion 94.6%), which was equal to Fe6Ni6/P (94.4%), was better than Ni6/P (64.4%) and Ni6/HG (46.7%). When the loading of Ni (mass%) was 6 mass% on G, tar conversion had the best value (94.6%) and yield of gaseous products reached 486.9, 167.8 and 22.2 mL/(g·tar) for H2, CO, CH4, respectively. The catalytic activity of goethite supported Ni was better in improving tar conversion and improving increased yield of H2, CO, CH4, which was attributed to the existence of Al/Fe substitution of goethite

A lightweight biometric signature scheme for user authentication over networks

We introduce a lightweight biometric solution for user authentication over networks using online handwritten signatures. The algorithm proposed is based on a modified Hausdorff distance and has favorable characteristics such as low computational cost and minimal training requirements. Furthermore, we investigate an information theoretic model for capacity and performance analysis for biometric authentication which brings additional theoretical insights to the problem. A fully functional proof-of-concept prototype that relies on commonly available off-the-shelf hardware is developed as a client-server system that supports Web services. Initial experimental results show that the algorithm performs well despite its low computational requirements and is resilient against over-the-shoulder attacks.

Catalytic cracking of tar derived from rice hull gasification over palygorskite-supported Fe and Ni

The catalytic performance of Fe–Ni/PG (PG: palygorskite) catalysts pre-calcined and reduced at 500 ◦C for catalytic decomposition of tar derived through rice hull gasification was investigated. The materials were characterized by using X-ray diffraction, hydrogen temperature reduction, and transmission electron microscopy. The results showed that ferrites with spinel structure ((Fe, Ni)3O4) were formed during preparation of bimetallic systems during calcination and reduction of the precursors (Fe–Ni/PG catalysts) and NiO metal oxide particles were formed over Fe6–Ni9/PG catalyst. The obtained experimental data showed that Fe–Ni/PG catalysts had greater catalytic activity than natural PG. Tar removal using Fe6–Ni9/PG catalyst was as high as Fe10–Ni6/PG catalyst (99.5%). Fe6–Ni9/PG showed greater catalytic activity with greater H2 yield and showed stronger resistance to carbon deposition, attributed to the presence of NiO nanoparticles. Thus, the addition of nickel and iron oxides played an important role in catalytic cracking of rice hull biomass tar.

Large igneous provinces and silicic large igneous provinces : progress in our understanding over the last 25 years

Large Igneous Provinces are exceptional intraplate igneous events throughout Earth’s history. Their significance and potential global impact is related to the total volume of magma intruded and released during these geologically brief events (peak eruptions are often within 1-5 Myrs duration) where millions to tens of millions of cubic kilometers of magma are produced. In some cases, at least 1% of the Earth’s surface has been directly covered in volcanic rock, being equivalent to the size of small continents with comparable crustal thicknesses. Large Igneous Provinces are thus important, albeit episodic episodes of new crust addition. However, most magmatism is basaltic so that contributions to crustal growth will not always be picked up in zircon geochronology studies that better trace major episodes of extension-related silicic magmatism and the silicic Large Igneous Provinces. Much headway has been made on our understanding of these anomalous igneous events over the last 25 years, driving many new ideas and models. This includes their: 1) global spatial and temporal distribution, with a long-term average of one event approximately every 20 Myrs, but a clear clustering of events at times of supercontinent break-up – Large Igneous Provinces are thus an integral part of the Wilson cycle and are becoming an increasingly important tool in reconnecting dispersed continental fragments; 2) compositional diversity that in part reflects their crustal setting of ocean basins, and continental interiors and margins where in the latter setting, LIP magmatism can be silicicdominant; 3) mineral and energy resources with major PGE and precious metal resources being hosted in these provinces, as well as magmatism impacting on the hydrocarbon potential of volcanic basins and rifted margins through enhancing source rock maturation, providing fluid migration pathways, and trap formation; 4) biospheric, hydrospheric and atmospheric impacts, with Large Igneous Provinces now widely regarded as a key trigger mechanism for mass extinctions, although the exact kill mechanism(s) are still being resolved; 5) role in mantle geodynamics and thermal evolution of the Earth, by potentially recording the transport of material from the lower mantle or core-mantle boundary to the Earth's surface and being a fundamental component in whole mantle convection models; and 6) recognition on the inner planets where the lack of plate tectonics and erosional processes and planetary antiquity means that the very earliest record of LIP events during planetary evolution may be better preserved than on Earth.

Citation success over time : theory or empirics?

This study investigates the citation patterns of theoretical and empirical papers published in a top economics journal, namely American Economic Review, over a period of almost 30 years, while also exploring the determinants of citation success. The results indicate that empirical papers attract more citation success than theoretical studies. However, the pattern over time is very similar. Moreover, among empirical papers it appears that the cross-country studies are more successful than single country studies focusing on North America data or other regions.