Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

Spelling in adults: The role of reading skills and experience

One hundred university students completed tests of spelling production, vocabulary, reading comprehension, reading experience, and reading accuracy (ability to distinguish a previously read word from a similar distractor). Reading experience, as measured by an adaptation of the Author Recognition Test, and reading accuracy contributed to the prediction of spelling beyond the joint contribution of reading comprehension and vocabulary. The results are more consistent with a uni-process model of spelling based on the quality of word-specific orthographic learning, rather than with a dual-process account relying on both word-specific knowledge and rules.

Using stochastic dynamic programming to determine optimal fire management for Banksia ornata

1. A model of the population dynamics of Banksia ornata was developed, using stochastic dynamic programming (a state-dependent decision-making tool), to determine optimal fire management strategies that incorporate trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and fuel reduction. 2. The modelled population of B. ornata was described by its age and density, and was exposed to the risk of unplanned fires and stochastic variation in germination success. 3. For a given population in each year, three management strategies were considered: (i) lighting a prescribed fire; (ii) controlling the incidence of unplanned fire; (iii) doing nothing. 4. The optimal management strategy depended on the state of the B. ornata population, with the time since the last fire (age of the population) being the most important variable. Lighting a prescribed fire at an age of less than 30 years was only optimal when the density of seedlings after a fire was low (< 100 plants ha(-1)) or when there were benefits of maintaining a low fuel load by using more frequent fire. 5. Because the cost of management was assumed to be negligible (relative to the value of the persistence of the population), the do-nothing option was never the optimal strategy, although lighting prescribed fires had only marginal benefits when the mean interval between unplanned fires was less than 20-30 years.

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal tradeoffs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.

Retaining rural and remote area nurses - The Queensland, Australia experience

Because higher-than-average turnover rates for nurses who work in remote and rural areas are the norm, the authors conducted a study to identify professional and personal factors that influenced rural nurses' decisions to resign. Using a mail survey, the authors gathered qualitative and quantitative data from nurses who had resigned from rural and remote areas in Queensland, Australia. Their findings, categorized into professional and rural influences, highlight the importance of work force planning strategies that capitalize on the positive aspects of rural and remote area practice, to retain nurses in nonmetropolitan areas.

Experiences with redo aortic valve surgery

Objectives and Methods: Reoperations are an integral part of a cardiac surgeon's practice. We share our experience of 546 reoperations over the last 21 years to January 2000, with the focus directed towards the timing of reoperation, reducing the mortality and morbidity of reoperation and rereplacement aortic valve surgery, and understanding the important risk factors. In addition, the precise technical steps that facilitate careful successful explantation of various devices (allograft, stented and stentless xenografts, and mechanical valves) are detailed. Results: Optimal planned reoperation before deterioration to New York Heart Association Class III/IV levels and before unfavorable cardiac and comorbidity general system failure occurs has produced low mortality and morbidity as compared with first operation results. However, unfavorable delays and late rereferral result in mortality rates of up to 22% for emergency redo AVR for degenerated bioprostheses. Conclusion: Cardiac surgical units have the opportunity to establish a closer patient-surgeon relationship, which favors, when necessary, the optimal timing of reoperation. Knowledge of the more important risk factors and adherence to specific technical steps at explantation of various devices enhances satisfactory reoperation outcomes.

Undergraduate student experience in dental service delivery in rural South Australia: An analysis of costs and benefits

Background, Rural experience for dental students can provide valuable clinical education, change attitudes to rural practice, and make a valuable contribution to clinical service provision. The aim of this paper is to assess the costs and benefits of service delivery by students through rural training programmes Methods: Groups of two students worked in the public dental clinics in adjacent rural centres where there had been long-term difficulties in recruiting staff. The costs and benefits of the programme were assessed by the impact on waiting lists, the total cost per patient of, a course of care and by the marginal cost of adding service provision by students to existing arrangements. Results: The total costs of emergency and complete treatment provided by students were greater than the costs of treatment provided by public-sector dentists but less than the costs of private providers treating public patients. However, the value of services were greater when care was provided by students or private providers and the marginal cost of students providing services was 50-70 per cent of the cost of care provided by public dentists. Conclusion: This assessment suggests that the service benefits achieved compliment the primary objective of influencing the attitude of students to rural practice.

The human organization of time: Temporal realities and experience (Book)

Reviews the book "The Human Organization of Time: Temporal Realities and Experience," by Allen C. Bluedorn.

Debt Maturity: Is Long-Term Debt Optimal?

We model and calibrate the arguments in favor and against short-term and long-term debt. These arguments broadly include: maturity premium, sustainability, and service smoothing. We use a dynamic-equilibrium model with tax distortions and government outlays uncertainty, and model maturity as the fraction of debt that needs to be rolled over every period. In the model, the benefits of defaulting are tempered by higher future interest rates. We then calibrate our artificial economy and solve for the optimal debt maturity for Brazil as an example of a developing country and the US as an example of a mature economy. We obtain that the calibrated costs from defaulting on long-term debt more than offset costs associated with short-term debt. Therefore, short-term debt implies higher welfare levels.

Optimal reserve management and sovereign debt

Most models currently used to determine optimal foreign reserve holdings take the level of international debt as given. However, given the sovereign`s willingness-to-pay incentive problems, reserve accumulation may reduce sustainable debt levels. In addition, assuming constant debt levels does not allow addressing one of the puzzles behind using reserves as a means to avoid the negative effects of crisis: why do not sovereign countries reduce their sovereign debt instead? To study the joint decision of holding sovereign debt and reserves, we construct a stochastic dynamic equilibrium model calibrated to a sample of emerging markets. We obtain that the reserve accumulation does not play a quantitatively important role in this model. In fact, we find the optimal policy is not to hold reserves at all. This finding is robust to considering interest rate shocks, sudden stops, contingent reserves and reserve dependent output costs. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Experience-induced preference for oviposition repellents derived from a non-host plant by a specialist herbivore

Foraging adults of phytophagous insects are attracted by host-plant volatiles and supposedly repelled by volatiles from non-host plants. In behavioural control of pest insects, chemicals derived from non-host plants applied to crops are expected to repel searching adults and thereby reduce egg laying. How experience by searching adults of non-host volatiles affects their subsequent searching and oviposition behaviour has been rarely tested. In laboratory experiments, we examined the effect of experience of a non-host-plant extract on the oviposition behaviour of the diamondback moth (DBM), Plutella xylostella, a specialist herbivore of cruciferous plants. Naive ovipositing DBM females were repelled by an extract of dried leaves of Chrysanthemum morifolium, a non-host plant of DBM, but experienced females were not repelled. Instead they were attracted by host plants treated with the non-host-plant extract and laid a higher proportion of eggs on treated than on untreated host plants. Such behavioural changes induced by experience could lead to host-plant range expansion in phytophagous insects and play an important role in determining outcome for pest management of some behavioural manipulation methods.

Study of acetylcholinesterase activity in rectal suction biopsy for diagnosis of intestinal dysganglionoses: 17-year experience of a single center

Although the utility of the acetylcholinesterase (AChE) histochemistry on rectal suction biopsy in diagnosing Hirschsprung`s disease (HD) has been documented, few reports address a great number of biopsies and patients. Our aim is to present a 17-year experience on the method of rectal suction biopsy and AChE histochemical staining for diagnosis of intestinal dysganglionoses. Between August 1989 and July 2006, 297 children suspected of having HD were submitted to rectal suction biopsies that were evaluated by the same two surgeons. There were 18 complications (6.0%), namely one self-limited rectal bleeding and 17 (5.7%) inadequate procedures that were repeated. A total of 157 patients (52.8%) showed no increased AChE activity and the remaining patients (140-47.2.0%) presented patterns of increased AChE activity confirming the diagnosis of HD or neuronal intestinal dysplasia. Among the 140 cases suspected as having HD, in 131 children the diagnosis of HD was confirmed and they were operated on. The histological studies showed that 111 children presented the classic form of HD or a long spastic segment. Sixteen children presented total colonic aganglionosis and four children proved to have intestinal neuronal dysplasia, according to histological and radiological criteria. Nine (6.6%) newborns were identified as false-positives and no false-negative results were verified. The rectal suction biopsy combined with AChE staining is advantageous for the differentiation between normal bowel and intestinal dysganglionoses. The rectal suction method is simple and can easily be performed by experienced surgeons. The histological evaluation is very objective and can be performed by a non-pathologist.