Otimizando vibrações sísmicas em estruturas através de controles híbridos

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEIS

Insulin analogues in the treatment of diabetes in pregnancy

Pregnancy affects both maternal and fetal metabolism, and even in non-diabetic women, it exerts a diabetogenic effect. Among pregnant women, 2% to 14% develop gestational diabetes. Pregnancy can also occur in women with preexisting diabetes, which may predispose the fetus to many alterations in organogenesis, restrict growth, and the mother, to some diabetes-related complications, such as retinopathy and nephropathy, or to acceleration of the course of these complications, if they are already present. Women with gestational diabetes generally start their treatment with diet and lifestyle changes; when these changes are not enough for optimal glycemic control, insulin therapy must then be considered. Women with type 2 diabetes using oral hypoglycemic agents are advised to change to insulin therapy. Those with preexisting type 1 diabetes should start intensive glycemic control. As basal insulin analogues have frequently been used off-label in pregnant women, there is a need to evaluate their safety and efficacy. The aim of this review is to report the use of both short- and long-acting insulin analogues during pregnancy and to enable clinicians, obstetricians, and endocrinologists to choose the best insulin treatment for their patients.

Spectrum reconstruction from a scattering measurement using the adjoint Boltzmann transport equation for photons

Quality control of medical radiological systems is of fundamental importance, and requires efficient methods for accurately determine the X-ray source spectrum. Straightforward measurements of X-ray spectra in standard operating require the limitation of the high photon flux, and therefore the measure has to be performed in a laboratory. However, the optimal quality control requires frequent in situ measurements which can be only performed using a portable system. To reduce the photon flux by 3 magnitude orders an indirect technique based on the scattering of the X-ray source beam by a solid target is used. The measured spectrum presents a lack of information because of transport and detection effects. The solution is then unfolded by solving the matrix equation that represents formally the scattering problem. However, the algebraic system is ill-conditioned and, therefore, it is not possible to obtain a satisfactory solution. Special strategies are necessary to circumvent the ill-conditioning. Numerous attempts have been done to solve this problem by using purely mathematical methods. In this thesis, a more physical point of view is adopted. The proposed method uses both the forward and the adjoint solutions of the Boltzmann transport equation to generate a better conditioned linear algebraic system. The procedure has been tested first on numerical experiments, giving excellent results. Then, the method has been verified with experimental measurements performed at the Operational Unit of Health Physics of the University of Bologna. The reconstructed spectra have been compared with the ones obtained with straightforward measurements, showing very good agreement.

Service Level Agreements-Driven Management of Distributed Applications in Cloud Computing Environments

Cloud Computing enables provisioning and distribution of highly scalable services in a reliable, on-demand and sustainable manner. However, objectives of managing enterprise distributed applications in cloud environments under Service Level Agreement (SLA) constraints lead to challenges for maintaining optimal resource control. Furthermore, conflicting objectives in management of cloud infrastructure and distributed applications might lead to violations of SLAs and inefficient use of hardware and software resources. This dissertation focusses on how SLAs can be used as an input to the cloud management system, increasing the efficiency of allocating resources, as well as that of infrastructure scaling. First, we present an extended SLA semantic model for modelling complex service-dependencies in distributed applications, and for enabling automated cloud infrastructure management operations. Second, we describe a multi-objective VM allocation algorithm for optimised resource allocation in infrastructure clouds. Third, we describe a method of discovering relations between the performance indicators of services belonging to distributed applications and then using these relations for building scaling rules that a CMS can use for automated management of VMs. Fourth, we introduce two novel VM-scaling algorithms, which optimally scale systems composed of VMs, based on given SLA performance constraints. All presented research works were implemented and tested using enterprise distributed applications.

Psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the diabetes empowerment scale

Metabolic control is central to positive clinical outcome in patients with diabetes. Empowerment has been linked to metabolic control in this clinical group. The current study sought to determine key psychometric properties of the Chinese version of the Diabetes Empowerment Scale (C-DES) and to explore the relationship of the C-DES sub-scales to metabolic control in 189 patients with a diagnosis of diabetes. Confirmatory factor analysis established that the five sub-scales of the C-DES offered a highly satisfactory fit to the data. Furthermore, C-DES sub-scales were found to have generally acceptable internal consistency and divergent reliability. However, convergent reliability of C-DES sub-scales could not be established against metabolic control. It is concluded that future research needs to address ambiguities in the relationship between empowerment and metabolic control in order to afford patients an evidenced-based treatment package to assure optimal metabolic control.

Diabetic patient education and motivation. Available in 2 volumes.

Diabetes mellitus is a condition which requires a high degree of patient cooperation in self-management to achieve optimal glycaemic control. The concept of patient education, to enhance the treatment and management of diabetes, is well recognised. Several diabetes education programmes have already been described, but increased knowledge of diabetes did not necessarily result in improved self-mangement or glycaemic control. Other factors, such as attitudes and motivations, may therefore be particuarly important. The aims of the present study were to investigate the influence of patients' attitudes to diabetes, and to develop motivational aspects which enable the application of knowledge to enhance self-management and compliance with treatment. Thirty-one insulin-dependent diabetic (IDD) patients entered into a 12 month educational programme, particularly designed to increase motivation. Patients' attitudes to diabetes, their knowledge and self-management skills were assessed using questionnaires and practical tests, and parameters of glycaemic control were measured. The progress of these patients was compared at intervals with a close matched group of 25 control IFF patients who continued to receive routine clinic care. Patients completing the educational programme achieved better glycaemic control (p< 0.05), greater knowledge (p< 0.001), more favourable attitudes (p< 0.03) and increased competence in management skills (p< 0.02) compared with the control group. Evaluation procedures indicated that the programme was acceptable to the patients, and was successful in terms of increasing patient motivation. Six months after completion of the programme, glycaemic control deteriorated, although knowledge, attitudes and management skills were unchanged. This might reflect the withdrawal of extrinsic motivation, attention and supervision provided during the programme. It is recommended that consideration be given to the development of patients' intrinsic motivation to achieve maximum benefit from diabetes education programmes.

A Differential Game Described by a Hyperbolic System

An antagonistic differential game of hyperbolic type with a separable linear vector pay-off function is considered. The main result is the description of all ε-Slater saddle points consisting of program strategies, program ε-Slater maximins and minimaxes for each ε ∈ R^N > for this game. To this purpose, the considered differential game is reduced to find the optimal program strategies of two multicriterial problems of hyperbolic type. The application of approximation enables us to relate these problems to a problem of optimal program control, described by a system of ordinary differential equations, with a scalar pay-off function. It is found that the result of this problem is not changed, if the players use positional or program strategies. For the considered differential game, it is interesting that the ε-Slater saddle points are not equivalent and there exist two ε-Slater saddle points for which the values of all components of the vector pay-off function at one of them are greater than the respective components of the other ε-saddle point.

Essays on emissions trading markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Essays on Emissions Trading Markets

This dissertation is a collection of three economics essays on different aspects of carbon emission trading markets. The first essay analyzes the dynamic optimal emission control strategies of two nations. With a potential to become the largest buyer under the Kyoto Protocol, the US is assumed to be a monopsony, whereas with a large number of tradable permits on hand Russia is assumed to be a monopoly. Optimal costs of emission control programs are estimated for both the countries under four different market scenarios: non-cooperative no trade, US monopsony, Russia monopoly, and cooperative trading. The US monopsony scenario is found to be the most Pareto cost efficient. The Pareto efficient outcome, however, would require the US to make side payments to Russia, which will even out the differences in the cost savings from cooperative behavior. The second essay analyzes the price dynamics of the Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX), a voluntary emissions trading market. By examining the volatility in market returns using AR-GARCH and Markov switching models, the study associates the market price fluctuations with two different political regimes of the US government. Further, the study also identifies a high volatility in the returns few months before the market collapse. Three possible regulatory and market-based forces are identified as probable causes of market volatility and its ultimate collapse. Organizers of other voluntary markets in the US and worldwide may closely watch for these regime switching forces in order to overcome emission market crashes. The third essay compares excess skewness and kurtosis in carbon prices between CCX and EU ETS (European Union Emission Trading Scheme) Phase I and II markets, by examining the tail behavior when market expectations exceed the threshold level. Dynamic extreme value theory is used to find out the mean price exceedence of the threshold levels and estimate the risk loss. The calculated risk measures suggest that CCX and EU ETS Phase I are extremely immature markets for a risk investor, whereas EU ETS Phase II is a more stable market that could develop as a mature carbon market in future years.

Price manipulation: theoretical models and empirical investigation

Understanding why market manipulation is conducted, under which conditions it is the most profitable and investigating the magnitude of these practices are crucial questions for financial regulators. Closing price manipulation induced by derivatives’ expiration is the primary subject of this thesis. The first chapter provides a mathematical framework in continuous time to study the incentive to manipulate a set of securities induced by a derivative position. An agent holding a European-type contingent claim, depending on the price of a basket of underlying securities, is considered. The agent can affect the price of the underlying securities by trading on each of them before expiration. The elements of novelty are at least twofold: (1) a multi-asset market is considered; (2) the problem is solved by means of both classic optimisation and stochastic control techniques. Both linear and option payoffs are considered. In the second chapter an empirical investigation is conducted on the existence of expiration day effects on the UK equity market. Intraday data on FTSE 350 stocks over a six-year period from 2015-2020 are used. The results show that the expiration of index derivatives is associated with a rise in both trading activity and volatility, together with significant price distortions. The expiration of single stock options appears to have little to no impact on the underlying securities. The last chapter examines the existence of patterns in line with closing price manipulation of UK stocks on option expiration days. The main contributions are threefold: (1) this is one of the few empirical studies on manipulation induced by the options market; (2) proprietary equity orderbook and transaction data sets are used to define manipulation proxies, providing a more detailed analysis; (3) the behaviour of proprietary trading firms is studied. Despite the industry concerns, no evidence is found of this type of manipulative behaviour.

Optimal release strategies for biological control agents: an application of stochastic dynamic programming to population management

1. Establishing biological control agents in the field is a major step in any classical biocontrol programme, yet there are few general guidelines to help the practitioner decide what factors might enhance the establishment of such agents. 2. A stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) approach, linked to a metapopulation model, was used to find optimal release strategies (number and size of releases), given constraints on time and the number of biocontrol agents available. By modelling within a decision-making framework we derived rules of thumb that will enable biocontrol workers to choose between management options, depending on the current state of the system. 3. When there are few well-established sites, making a few large releases is the optimal strategy. For other states of the system, the optimal strategy ranges from a few large releases, through a mixed strategy (a variety of release sizes), to many small releases, as the probability of establishment of smaller inocula increases. 4. Given that the probability of establishment is rarely a known entity, we also strongly recommend a mixed strategy in the early stages of a release programme, to accelerate learning and improve the chances of finding the optimal approach.

The achievable region approach to the optimal control of stochastic systems

The achievable region approach seeks solutions to stochastic optimisation problems by: (i) characterising the space of all possible performances(the achievable region) of the system of interest, and (ii) optimisingthe overall system-wide performance objective over this space. This isradically different from conventional formulations based on dynamicprogramming. The approach is explained with reference to a simpletwo-class queueing system. Powerful new methodologies due to the authorsand co-workers are deployed to analyse a general multiclass queueingsystem with parallel servers and then to develop an approach to optimalload distribution across a network of interconnected stations. Finally,the approach is used for the first time to analyse a class of intensitycontrol problems.

Discrete-time mean variance optimal control of linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noise

In this article, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noise under three kinds of performance criterions related to the final value of the expectation and variance of the output. In the first problem it is desired to minimise the final variance of the output subject to a restriction on its final expectation, in the second one it is desired to maximise the final expectation of the output subject to a restriction on its final variance, and in the third one it is considered a performance criterion composed by a linear combination of the final variance and expectation of the output of the system. We present explicit sufficient conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for these problems, generalising previous results in the literature. We conclude this article presenting a numerical example of an asset liabilities management model for pension funds with regime switching.

Optimal power management strategy for energy storage with stochastic loads

In this paper, a power management strategy (PMS) has been developed for the control of energy storage in a system subjected to loads of random duration. The PMS minimises the costs associated with the energy consumption of specific systems powered by a primary energy source and equipped with energy storage, under the assumption that the statistical distribution of load durations is known. By including the variability of the load in the cost function, it was possible to define the optimality criteria for the power flow of the storage. Numerical calculations have been performed obtaining the control strategies associated with the global minimum in energy costs, for a wide range of initial conditions of the system. The results of the calculations have been tested on a MATLAB/Simulink model of a rubber tyre gantry (RTG) crane equipped with a flywheel energy storage system (FESS) and subjected to a test cycle, which corresponds to the real operation of a crane in the Port of Felixstowe. The results of the model show increased energy savings and reduced peak power demand with respect to existing control strategies, indicating considerable potential savings for port operators in terms of energy and maintenance costs.

Optimal mean-variance control for discrete-time linear systems with Markovian jumps and multiplicative noises

In this paper, we consider the stochastic optimal control problem of discrete-time linear systems subject to Markov jumps and multiplicative noises under two criteria. The first one is an unconstrained mean-variance trade-off performance criterion along the time, and the second one is a minimum variance criterion along the time with constraints on the expected output. We present explicit conditions for the existence of an optimal control strategy for the problems, generalizing previous results in the literature. We conclude the paper by presenting a numerical example of a multi-period portfolio selection problem with regime switching in which it is desired to minimize the sum of the variances of the portfolio along the time under the restriction of keeping the expected value of the portfolio greater than some minimum values specified by the investor. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.