Estratégia de manutenção de equipamentos elétricos em unidades offshore de produção de petróleo e gás baseada na filosofia de operações integradas.

A função Manutenção é extremamente relevante para garantir o cumprimento do planejamento da produção de óleo e gás natural de uma unidade marítima de produção, pois impacta diretamente na eficácia do processo produtivo. Quando se trata de uma instalação offshore, a manutenção passa a ser ainda mais importante, pois falhas em equipamentos e sistemas industriais podem, além de causar perdas econômicas, causar graves acidentes às pessoas e ao meio ambiente. Gerir a manutenção de uma planta industrial flutuante, localizada a 300 quilômetros da costa, como no caso daquelas localizadas nos campos do pré-sal brasileiro, é uma tarefa que requer a aplicação das técnicas mais modernas de gerenciamento de manutenção e processos de trabalho ágeis e dinâmicos para garantir o suporte técnico adequado a partir de instalações localizadas em ambientes onshore. Neste contexto, esta tese tem como objetivo avaliar e propor uma metodologia para definição da estratégia de manutenção a ser implementada em novas unidades de produção de petróleo e gás natural destinadas a operar em ambiente offshore. Esta metodologia, pautada na manutenção centrada em confiabilidade, tem como objetivo garantir que a estratégia de manutenção, além de garantir a máxima disponibilidade e eficiência dos equipamentos e sistemas, também seja compatível com a filosofia das Operações Integradas, recentemente desenvolvida pela indústria norueguesa de exploração e produção de petróleo para otimizar a produção de seus campos que já estão em fase de amadurecimento. Dessa forma, este trabalho contribuirá para que, com base na metodologia proposta para definição da estratégia de manutenção, novas plataformas de petróleo e gás natural possam operar com ainda mais segurança e eficiência, garantindo o melhor aproveitamento possível das reservas de petróleo. Este trabalho inclui uma análise de custos simplificada para os estudos de caso propostos, não fazendo parte do escopo do trabalho uma análise de custos detalhada para toda instalação.

Impact of maternally derived immunity on piglets’ immune response and protection against porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) after vaccination against PCV2 at different age

BACKGROUND: This study was aimed at evaluating the clinical protection, the level of Porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2) viremia and the immune response (antibodies and IFN-γ secreting cells (SC)) in piglets derived from PCV2 vaccinated sows and themselves vaccinated against PCV2 at different age, namely at 4, 6 and 8 weeks. The cohort study has been carried out over three subsequent production cycles (replicates). At the start/enrolment, 46 gilts were considered at first mating, bled and vaccinated. At the first, second and third farrowing, dams were bled and re-vaccinated at the subsequent mating after weaning piglets. Overall 400 piglets at each farrowing (first, second and third) were randomly allocated in three different groups (100 piglets/group) based on the timing of vaccination (4, 6 or 8 weeks of age). A fourth group was kept non-vaccinated (controls). Piglets were vaccinated intramuscularly with one dose (2 mL) of a commercial PCV2a-based subunit vaccine (Porcilis® PCV). Twenty animals per group were bled at weaning and from vaccination to slaughter every 4 weeks for the detection of PCV2 viremia, humoral and cell-mediated immune responses. Clinical signs and individual treatments (morbidity), mortality, and body weight of all piglets were recorded. RESULTS: All vaccination schemes (4, 6 and 8 weeks of age) were able to induce an antibody response and IFN-γ SC. The highest clinical and virological protection sustained by immune reactivity was observed in pigs vaccinated at 6 weeks of age. Overall, repeated PCV2 vaccination in sows at mating and the subsequent higher levels of maternally derived antibodies did not significantly interfere with the induction of both humoral and cell-mediated immunity in their piglets after vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of vaccination in sows at mating and in piglets at 6 weeks of age was more effective for controlling PCV2 natural infection, than other vaccination schemas, thus sustaining that some interference of MDA with the induction of an efficient immune response could be considered. In conclusion, optimal vaccination strategy needs to balance the levels of passive immunity, the management practices and timing of infection.

Can non-directional male mating preferences facilitate honest female ornamentation?

Recent studies have demonstrated male mate choice for female ornaments in species without sex-role reversal. Despite these empirical findings, little is known about the adaptive dynamics of female signalling, in particular the evolution of male mating preferences. The evolution of traits that signal mate quality is more complex in females than in males because females usually provide the bulk of resources for the developing offspring. Here, we investigate the evolution of male mating preferences using a mathematical model which: (i) specifically accounts for the fact that females must trade-off resources invested in ornaments with reproduction; and (ii) allows male mating preferences to evolve a non-directional shape. The optimal adaptive strategy for males is to develop stabilizing mating preferences for female display traits to avoid females that either invests too many or too few resources in ornamentation. However, the evolutionary stability of this prediction is dependent upon the level of error made by females when allocating resources to either signal or fecundity.

Presence-absence versus abundance data for monitoring threatened species

Effective detection of population trend is crucial for managing threatened species. Little theory exists, however, to assist managers in choosing the most cost-effective monitoring techniques for diagnosing trend. We present a framework for determining the optimal monitoring strategy by simulating a manager collecting data on a declining species, the Chestnut-rumped Hylacola (Hylacola pyrrhopygia parkeri), to determine whether the species should be listed under the IUCN (World Conservation Union) Red List. We compared the efficiencies of two strategies for detecting trend, abundance, and presence-absence surveys, underfinancial constraints. One might expect the abundance surveys to be superior under all circumstances because more information is collected at each site. Nevertheless, the presence-absence data can be collected at more sites because the surveyor is not obliged to spend a fixed amount of time at each site. The optimal strategy for monitoring was very dependent on the budget available. Under some circumstances, presence-absence surveys outperformed abundance surveys for diagnosing the IUCN Red List categories cost-effectively. Abundance surveys were best if the species was expected to be recorded more than 16 times/year; otherwise, presence-absence surveys were best. The relationship between the strategies we investigated is likely to be relevant for many comparisons of presence-absence or abundance data. Managers of any cryptic or low-density species who hope to maximize their success of estimating trend should find an application for our results.

Sviluppo e Applicazione di Metodologie per l'Ottimizzazione di Sistemi Energetici

La riduzione dei consumi di combustibili fossili e lo sviluppo di tecnologie per il risparmio energetico sono una questione di centrale importanza sia per l’industria che per la ricerca, a causa dei drastici effetti che le emissioni di inquinanti antropogenici stanno avendo sull’ambiente. Mentre un crescente numero di normative e regolamenti vengono emessi per far fronte a questi problemi, la necessità di sviluppare tecnologie a basse emissioni sta guidando la ricerca in numerosi settori industriali. Nonostante la realizzazione di fonti energetiche rinnovabili sia vista come la soluzione più promettente nel lungo periodo, un’efficace e completa integrazione di tali tecnologie risulta ad oggi impraticabile, a causa sia di vincoli tecnici che della vastità della quota di energia prodotta, attualmente soddisfatta da fonti fossili, che le tecnologie alternative dovrebbero andare a coprire. L’ottimizzazione della produzione e della gestione energetica d’altra parte, associata allo sviluppo di tecnologie per la riduzione dei consumi energetici, rappresenta una soluzione adeguata al problema, che può al contempo essere integrata all’interno di orizzonti temporali più brevi. L’obiettivo della presente tesi è quello di investigare, sviluppare ed applicare un insieme di strumenti numerici per ottimizzare la progettazione e la gestione di processi energetici che possa essere usato per ottenere una riduzione dei consumi di combustibile ed un’ottimizzazione dell’efficienza energetica. La metodologia sviluppata si appoggia su un approccio basato sulla modellazione numerica dei sistemi, che sfrutta le capacità predittive, derivanti da una rappresentazione matematica dei processi, per sviluppare delle strategie di ottimizzazione degli stessi, a fronte di condizioni di impiego realistiche. Nello sviluppo di queste procedure, particolare enfasi viene data alla necessità di derivare delle corrette strategie di gestione, che tengano conto delle dinamiche degli impianti analizzati, per poter ottenere le migliori prestazioni durante l’effettiva fase operativa. Durante lo sviluppo della tesi il problema dell’ottimizzazione energetica è stato affrontato in riferimento a tre diverse applicazioni tecnologiche. Nella prima di queste è stato considerato un impianto multi-fonte per la soddisfazione della domanda energetica di un edificio ad uso commerciale. Poiché tale sistema utilizza una serie di molteplici tecnologie per la produzione dell’energia termica ed elettrica richiesta dalle utenze, è necessario identificare la corretta strategia di ripartizione dei carichi, in grado di garantire la massima efficienza energetica dell’impianto. Basandosi su un modello semplificato dell’impianto, il problema è stato risolto applicando un algoritmo di Programmazione Dinamica deterministico, e i risultati ottenuti sono stati comparati con quelli derivanti dall’adozione di una più semplice strategia a regole, provando in tal modo i vantaggi connessi all’adozione di una strategia di controllo ottimale. Nella seconda applicazione è stata investigata la progettazione di una soluzione ibrida per il recupero energetico da uno scavatore idraulico. Poiché diversi layout tecnologici per implementare questa soluzione possono essere concepiti e l’introduzione di componenti aggiuntivi necessita di un corretto dimensionamento, è necessario lo sviluppo di una metodologia che permetta di valutare le massime prestazioni ottenibili da ognuna di tali soluzioni alternative. Il confronto fra i diversi layout è stato perciò condotto sulla base delle prestazioni energetiche del macchinario durante un ciclo di scavo standardizzato, stimate grazie all’ausilio di un dettagliato modello dell’impianto. Poiché l’aggiunta di dispositivi per il recupero energetico introduce gradi di libertà addizionali nel sistema, è stato inoltre necessario determinare la strategia di controllo ottimale dei medesimi, al fine di poter valutare le massime prestazioni ottenibili da ciascun layout. Tale problema è stato di nuovo risolto grazie all’ausilio di un algoritmo di Programmazione Dinamica, che sfrutta un modello semplificato del sistema, ideato per lo scopo. Una volta che le prestazioni ottimali per ogni soluzione progettuale sono state determinate, è stato possibile effettuare un equo confronto fra le diverse alternative. Nella terza ed ultima applicazione è stato analizzato un impianto a ciclo Rankine organico (ORC) per il recupero di cascami termici dai gas di scarico di autovetture. Nonostante gli impianti ORC siano potenzialmente in grado di produrre rilevanti incrementi nel risparmio di combustibile di un veicolo, è necessario per il loro corretto funzionamento lo sviluppo di complesse strategie di controllo, che siano in grado di far fronte alla variabilità della fonte di calore per il processo; inoltre, contemporaneamente alla massimizzazione dei risparmi di combustibile, il sistema deve essere mantenuto in condizioni di funzionamento sicure. Per far fronte al problema, un robusto ed efficace modello dell’impianto è stato realizzato, basandosi sulla Moving Boundary Methodology, per la simulazione delle dinamiche di cambio di fase del fluido organico e la stima delle prestazioni dell’impianto. Tale modello è stato in seguito utilizzato per progettare un controllore predittivo (MPC) in grado di stimare i parametri di controllo ottimali per la gestione del sistema durante il funzionamento transitorio. Per la soluzione del corrispondente problema di ottimizzazione dinamica non lineare, un algoritmo basato sulla Particle Swarm Optimization è stato sviluppato. I risultati ottenuti con l’adozione di tale controllore sono stati confrontati con quelli ottenibili da un classico controllore proporzionale integrale (PI), mostrando nuovamente i vantaggi, da un punto di vista energetico, derivanti dall’adozione di una strategia di controllo ottima.

Exchange rate economic exposure and hedging:the significance of currency options

This thesis focuses on the theoretical examination of the exchange rate economic (operating) exposure within the context of the theory of the firm, and proposes some hedging solutions using currency options. The examination of economic exposure is based on such parameters as firms' objectives, industry structure and production cost efficiency. In particular, it examines an hypothetical exporting firm with costs in domestic currency, which faces competition from foreign firms in overseas markets and has a market share expansion objective. Within this framework, the hypothesis is established that economic exposure, portrayed in a diagram connecting export prices and real exchange rates, is asymmetric (i.e. the negative effects depreciation are higher than the positive effects of a currency depreciation). In this case, export business can be seen as a real option, given by exporting firms to overseas customer. Different scenarios about the asymmetry hypothesis can be derived for different assumptions about the determinants of economic exposure. Having established the asymmetry hypothesis, the hedging against this exposure is analysed. The hypothesis is established, that a currency call option should be used in hedging against asymmetric economic exposure. Further, some advanced currency options stategies are discussed, and their use in hedging several scenarios of exposure is indicated, establishing the hypothesis that, the optimal options strategy is a function of the determinants of exposure. Some extensions on the theoretical analysis are examined. These include the hedging of multicurrency exposure using options, and the exposure of a purely domestic firm facing import competition. The empirical work addresses two issues: the empirical validity of the asymmetry hypothesis and the examination of the hedging effectiveness of currency options.

Investement appraisal in a deregulated electricity market

This thesis analyses the impact of deregulation on the theory and practice of investment decision making in the electricity sector and appraises the likely effects on its long term future inefficiency. Part I describes the market and its shortcomings in promoting an optimal generation margin and plant mix and in reducing prices through competition. A full size operational model is developed to simulate hour by hour operation of the market and analyse its features. A relationship is established between the SMP and plant mix and between the LOLP and plant margin and it is shown bow a theoretical optimum can be derived when the combined LOLP payments and the capital costs of additional generation reach a minimum. A comparison of prices against an idealised bulk supply tariff is used to show how energy prices have risen some 12% in excess of what might have occurred under the CEGB regime. This part concludes with proposals to improve the marloptimal capacity planning using lagrangian techniques to indicate needs without loss of data confidentiality. Part 2 demonstrates that the classical approach to generation investment appraisal is no longer valid and develops a new approach. It is shown how an individual generator can predict his utilisation and income to establish the worth of investment and demonstrates the validity of the operational model proposed. An empirical relationship is developed between profit and capacity and this is used to develop the theory to illustrate how companies interact. 1bree different economic models are developed to represent different market conditions and these are tested against the actual investment decisions since deregulation to demonstrate their appropriateness. It is shown that the current market mechanisms could lead to suboptimal investment. Part 3 discusses the essential role of transmission in enabling competition and reviews worldwide practices illustrating little consensus on charging for its use. Basic costing principles are described and a new model is developed to demonstrate bow a generator may strike supply agreements either side of an interconnector to influence prices so as to maximise his income. The optimal pricing strategy for the transmitter is also derived and consumer response is simulated .The concept of transmission uplift is developed and the operational model is extended to include transmission constraints and then used to establish monthly incremental transmission constraint cost functions. It is shown how these can be used to appraise investment options and optimally plan outages. Part 4 concludes by discussing the regulatory framework and its limitations in improving efficiency or encouraging the optimum levels of investment. The principal findings of the thesis are reviewed and potential market improvement are described. This part concludes with a discussion of alternative market structures and likely future developments.

Probabilistic control for uncertain systems

In this paper a new framework has been applied to the design of controllers which encompasses nonlinearity, hysteresis and arbitrary density functions of forward models and inverse controllers. Using mixture density networks, the probabilistic models of both the forward and inverse dynamics are estimated such that they are dependent on the state and the control input. The optimal control strategy is then derived which minimizes uncertainty of the closed loop system. In the absence of reliable plant models, the proposed control algorithm incorporates uncertainties in model parameters, observations, and latent processes. The local stability of the closed loop system has been established. The efficacy of the control algorithm is demonstrated on two nonlinear stochastic control examples with additive and multiplicative noise.

Análise de confiabilidade de um moto-ventilador centrífugo: aplicação no sistema de pressurização de subestação industrial para garantia da segurança operacional na indústria petroquímica

The need of the oil industry to ensure the safety of the facilities, employees and the environment, not to mention the search for maximum efficiency of its facilities, makes it seeks to achieve a high level of excellence in all stages of its production processes in order to obtain the required quality of the final product. Know the reliability of equipment and what it stands for a system is of fundamental importance for ensuring the operational safety. The reliability analysis technique has been increasingly applied in the oil industry as fault prediction tool and undesirable events that can affect business continuity. It is an applied scientific methodology that involves knowledge in engineering and statistics to meet and or analyze the performance of components, equipment and systems in order to ensure that they perform their function without fail, for a period of time and under a specific condition. The results of reliability analyzes help in making decisions about the best maintenance strategy of petrochemical plants. Reliability analysis was applied on equipment (bike-centrifugal fan) between the period 2010-2014 at the Polo Petrobras Guamaré Industrial, situated in rural Guamaré municipality in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, where he collected data field, analyzed historical equipment and observing the behavior of faults and their impacts. The data were processed in commercial software reliability ReliaSoft BlockSim 9. The results were compared with a study conducted by the experts in the field in order to get the best maintenance strategy for the studied system. With the results obtained from the reliability analysis tools was possible to determine the availability of the centrifugal motor-fan and what will be its impact on the security of process units if it will fail. A new maintenance strategy was established to improve the reliability, availability, maintainability and decreased likelihood of Moto-Centrifugal Fan failures, it is a series of actions to promote the increased system reliability and consequent increase in cycle life of the asset. Thus, this strategy sets out preventive measures to reduce the probability of failure and mitigating aimed at minimizing the consequences.

Game-Theoretically Allocating Resources to Catch Evaders and Payments to Stabilize Teams

Allocating resources optimally is a nontrivial task, especially when multiple

self-interested agents with conflicting goals are involved. This dissertation

uses techniques from game theory to study two classes of such problems:

allocating resources to catch agents that attempt to evade them, and allocating

payments to agents in a team in order to stabilize it. Besides discussing what

allocations are optimal from various game-theoretic perspectives, we also study

how to efficiently compute them, and if no such algorithms are found, what

computational hardness results can be proved.

The first class of problems is inspired by real-world applications such as the

TOEFL iBT test, course final exams, driver's license tests, and airport security

patrols. We call them test games and security games. This dissertation first

studies test games separately, and then proposes a framework of Catcher-Evader

games (CE games) that generalizes both test games and security games. We show

that the optimal test strategy can be efficiently computed for scored test

games, but it is hard to compute for many binary test games. Optimal Stackelberg

strategies are hard to compute for CE games, but we give an empirically

efficient algorithm for computing their Nash equilibria. We also prove that the

Nash equilibria of a CE game are interchangeable.

The second class of problems involves how to split a reward that is collectively

obtained by a team. For example, how should a startup distribute its shares, and

what salary should an enterprise pay to its employees. Several stability-based

solution concepts in cooperative game theory, such as the core, the least core,

and the nucleolus, are well suited to this purpose when the goal is to avoid

coalitions of agents breaking off. We show that some of these solution concepts

can be justified as the most stable payments under noise. Moreover, by adjusting

the noise models (to be arguably more realistic), we obtain new solution

concepts including the partial nucleolus, the multiplicative least core, and the

multiplicative nucleolus. We then study the computational complexity of those

solution concepts under the constraint of superadditivity. Our result is based

on what we call Small-Issues-Large-Team games and it applies to popular

representation schemes such as MC-nets.

The Affordable Care Act and the Transformation of US Health Care

The neoliberal period was accompanied by a momentous transformation within the US health care system.  As the result of a number of political and historical dynamics, the healthcare law signed by President Barack Obama in 2010 ‑the Affordable Care Act (ACA)‑ drew less on universal models from abroad than it did on earlier conservative healthcare reform proposals. This was in part the result of the influence of powerful corporate healthcare interests. While the ACA expands healthcare coverage, it does so incompletely and unevenly, with persistent uninsurance and disparities in access based on insurance status. Additionally, the law accommodates an overall shift towards a consumerist model of care characterized by high cost sharing at time of use. Finally, the law encourages the further consolidation of the healthcare sector, for instance into units named “Accountable Care Organizations” that closely resemble the health maintenance organizations favored by managed care advocates. The overall effect has been to maintain a fragmented system that is neither equitable nor efficient. A single payer universal system would, in contrast, help transform healthcare into a social right.

Essays on market design and regulation in electricity systems

This thesis discusses market design and regulation in electricity systems, focusing on the information exchange of the regulated grid firm and the generation firms as well as the regulation of the grid firm. In the first chapter, an economic framework is developed to consistently analyze different market designs and the information exchange between the grid firm and the generation firms. Perfect competition between the generation firms and perfect regulation of the grid firm is assumed. A numerical algorithm is developed and its feasibility demonstrated on a large-scale problem. The effects of different market designs for the Central Western European (CWE) region until 2030 are analyzed. In the second chapter, the consequences of restricted grid expansion within the current market design in the CWE region until 2030 are analyzed. In the third chapter the assumption of efficient markets is modified. The focus of the analysis is then, whether and how inefficiencies in information availability and processing affect different market designs. For different parameter settings, nodal and zonal pricing are compared regarding their welfare in the spot and forward market. In the fourth chapter, information asymmetries between the regulator and the regulated firm are analyzed. The optimal regulatory strategy for a firm, providing one output with two substitutable inputs, is defined. Thereby, one input and the absolute quantity of inputs is not observable for the regulator. The result is then compared to current regulatory approaches.

Studies on bovine oocytes and ovarian tissues cryopreservation : fundamental and applied aspects

Tese de Doutoramento, Ciências Agrárias (Reprodução Animal), 26 de Junho de 2013, Universidade dos Açores.

Novel efficient technologies in Europe for axle bearing condition monitoring – the MAXBE project

Axle bearing damage with possible catastrophic failures can cause severe disruptions or even dangerous derailments, potentially causing loss of human life and leading to significant costs for railway infrastructure managers and rolling stock operators. Consequently the axle bearing damage process has safety and economic implications on the exploitation of railways systems. Therefore it has been the object of intense attention by railway authorities as proved by the selection of this topic by the European Commission in calls for research proposals. The MAXBE Project (http://www.maxbeproject.eu/), an EU-funded project, appears in this context and its main goal is to develop and to demonstrate innovative and efficient technologies which can be used for the onboard and wayside condition monitoring of axle bearings. The MAXBE (interoperable monitoring, diagnosis and maintenance strategies for axle bearings) project focuses on detecting axle bearing failure modes at an early stage by combining new and existing monitoring techniques and on characterizing the axle bearing degradation process. The consortium for the MAXBE project comprises 18 partners from 8 member states, representing operators, railway administrations, axle bearing manufactures, key players in the railway community and experts in the field of monitoring, maintenance and rolling stock. The University of Porto is coordinating this research project that kicked-off in November 2012 and it is completed on October 2015. Both on-board and wayside systems are explored in the project since there is a need for defining the requirement for the onboard equipment and the range of working temperatures of the axle bearing for the wayside systems. The developed monitoring systems consider strain gauges, high frequency accelerometers, temperature sensors and acoustic emission. To get a robust technology to support the decision making of the responsible stakeholders synchronized measurements from onboard and wayside monitoring systems are integrated into a platform. Also extensive laboratory tests were performed to correlate the in situ measurements to the status of the axle bearing life. With the MAXBE project concept it will be possible: to contribute to detect at an early stage axle bearing failures; to create conditions for the operational and technical integration of axle bearing monitoring and maintenance in different European railway networks; to contribute to the standardization of the requirements for the axle bearing monitoring, diagnosis and maintenance. Demonstration of the developed condition monitoring systems was performed in Portugal in the Northern Railway Line with freight and passenger traffic with a maximum speed of 220 km/h, in Belgium in a tram line and in the UK. Still within the project, a tool for optimal maintenance scheduling and a smart diagnostic tool were developed. This paper presents a synthesis of the most relevant results attained in the project. The successful of the project and the developed solutions have positive impact on the reliability, availability, maintainability and safety of rolling stock and infrastructure with main focus on the axle bearing health.

Bidding and Optimization Strategies for Wind-PV Systems in Electricity Markets

The variability in non-dispatchable power generation raises important challenges to the integration of renewable energy sources into the electricity power grid. This paper provides the coordinated trading of wind and photovoltaic energy to mitigate risks due to the wind and solar power variability, electricity prices, and financial penalties arising out the generation shortfall and surplus. The problem of wind-photovoltaic coordinated trading is formulated as a linear programming problem. The goal is to obtain the optimal bidding strategy that maximizes the total profit. The wind-photovoltaic coordinated operation is modeled and compared with the uncoordinated operation. A comparison of the models and relevant conclusions are drawn from an illustrative case study of the Iberian day-ahead electricity market.