Monte Carlo Valuation of natural gas investments

This paper deals with the valuation of energy assets related to natural gas. In particular, we evaluate a baseload Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant and an ancillary instalation, namely a Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility, in a realistic setting; specifically, these investments enjoy a long useful life but require some non-negligible time to build. Then we focus on the valuation of several investment options again in a realistic setting. These include the option to invest in the power plant when there is uncertainty concerning the initial outlay, or the option's time to maturity, or the cost of CO2 emission permits, or when there is a chance to double the plant size in the future. Our model comprises three sources of risk. We consider uncertain gas prices with regard to both the current level and the long-run equilibrium level; the current electricity price is also uncertain. They all are assumed to show mean reversion. The two-factor model for natural gas price is calibrated using data from NYMEX NG futures contracts. Also, we calibrate the one-factor model for electricity price using data from the Spanish wholesale electricity market, respectively. Then we use the estimated parameter values alongside actual physical parameters from a case study to value natural gas plants. Finally, the calibrated parameters are also used in a Monte Carlo simulation framework to evaluate several American-type options to invest in these energy assets. We accomplish this by following the least squares MC approach.

Simulation of Natural Gas Production in Hydrate Reservoirs

This paper simulates a one-dimensional physical model of natural gas production from hydrate dissociation in a reservoir by depressurization. According to the principles of solid hydrate decomposition in stratum and flow of natural gas in porous medium, the pressure governing equations for both gas zone and hydrate zone are set up based on the physical production model. Using the approximation reported by N. N. Verigin et al. (1980), the nonlinear governing equations are simplified and the self-similar solutions are obtained. Through calculation, for different reservoir parameters, the distribution characters of pressure are analyzed. The decline trend of natural gas production rate with time is also studied. The simulation results show that production of natural gas from a hydrate reservoir is very sensitive to several reservoir parameters, such as wellbore pressure and stratum porosity and permeability.

Evolução da produção, reservas e dos preços do petróleo, gás natural e biocombustíveis: a importância dos biocombustíveis no cenário mundial

Este trabalho tem como objetivo estudar a indústria do petróleo, gás natural e biocombustíveis no contexto brasileiro e no mundial. Visa também analisar as vantagens e desvantagens dos biocombustíveis e seu possível impacto na indústria do petróleo, assim como os principais indicativos e projeções da indústria do petróleo, como reserva, produção, preço e consumo, através de coleta de dados e geração de gráficos pesquisados e comparados de grandes agências e empresas de energia. Os biocombustíveis podem ser um grande aliado da indústria do petróleo tendo em vista a duração das reservas mundiais de hidrocarbonetos. O uso dos biocombustíveis implicará no desenvolvimento de tecnologias renováveis e de reutilização de materiais antes descartados, trazendo benefício a toda sociedade. A indústria do petróleo é impactada pelas flutuações no mercado internacional e pela demanda, assim como pela manipulação da produção de combustíveis fósseis pelos países produtores. Esses aspectos apresentados interligados criam uma complexa indústria que a presente dissertação se propõe a analisar.

Travel Characteristics of Marine Anglers Using Oil and Gas Platforms in the Central Gulf of Mexico

This study was designed to evaluate the travel characteristics of avid marine anglers off Louisiana in the Central Gulf of Mexico. It focuses on the complex marine travel patterns involving the extensive assemblage of oil and gas structures. In an intercept approach, marine recreationalf isherman were asked to identify near and offshore travel patterns on the day of the interview. Information was also solicited regarding how respondents selected and located fishing destinations as well as what method of fishing was undertaken that day. Petroleum platforms were a principal fishing destination, and platform anglers traveled an average distance of 75.5 km (40.7 n.mi.) to and from offshore fishing locations. In fishing an average of 6.5 platforms per trip, these anglers traveled about 21.3 km (11.5 n.mi.) between the first and last platform visited. Mean total distances for platform anglers were 96 km (51.8 n.mi). Travel distances for bay, nearshore, and bluewater anglers were also obtained.