MODEL UPDATING AND STRUCTURAL HEALTH MONITORING OF HORIZONTAL AXIS WIND TURBINES VIA ADVANCED SPINNING FINITE ELEMENTS AND STOCHASTIC SUBSPACE IDENTIFICATION METHODS

Wind energy has been one of the most growing sectors of the nation’s renewable energy portfolio for the past decade, and the same tendency is being projected for the upcoming years given the aggressive governmental policies for the reduction of fossil fuel dependency. Great technological expectation and outstanding commercial penetration has shown the so called Horizontal Axis Wind Turbines (HAWT) technologies. Given its great acceptance, size evolution of wind turbines over time has increased exponentially. However, safety and economical concerns have emerged as a result of the newly design tendencies for massive scale wind turbine structures presenting high slenderness ratios and complex shapes, typically located in remote areas (e.g. offshore wind farms). In this regard, safety operation requires not only having first-hand information regarding actual structural dynamic conditions under aerodynamic action, but also a deep understanding of the environmental factors in which these multibody rotating structures operate. Given the cyclo-stochastic patterns of the wind loading exerting pressure on a HAWT, a probabilistic framework is appropriate to characterize the risk of failure in terms of resistance and serviceability conditions, at any given time. Furthermore, sources of uncertainty such as material imperfections, buffeting and flutter, aeroelastic damping, gyroscopic effects, turbulence, among others, have pleaded for the use of a more sophisticated mathematical framework that could properly handle all these sources of indetermination. The attainable modeling complexity that arises as a result of these characterizations demands a data-driven experimental validation methodology to calibrate and corroborate the model. For this aim, System Identification (SI) techniques offer a spectrum of well-established numerical methods appropriated for stationary, deterministic, and data-driven numerical schemes, capable of predicting actual dynamic states (eigenrealizations) of traditional time-invariant dynamic systems. As a consequence, it is proposed a modified data-driven SI metric based on the so called Subspace Realization Theory, now adapted for stochastic non-stationary and timevarying systems, as is the case of HAWT’s complex aerodynamics. Simultaneously, this investigation explores the characterization of the turbine loading and response envelopes for critical failure modes of the structural components the wind turbine is made of. In the long run, both aerodynamic framework (theoretical model) and system identification (experimental model) will be merged in a numerical engine formulated as a search algorithm for model updating, also known as Adaptive Simulated Annealing (ASA) process. This iterative engine is based on a set of function minimizations computed by a metric called Modal Assurance Criterion (MAC). In summary, the Thesis is composed of four major parts: (1) development of an analytical aerodynamic framework that predicts interacted wind-structure stochastic loads on wind turbine components; (2) development of a novel tapered-swept-corved Spinning Finite Element (SFE) that includes dampedgyroscopic effects and axial-flexural-torsional coupling; (3) a novel data-driven structural health monitoring (SHM) algorithm via stochastic subspace identification methods; and (4) a numerical search (optimization) engine based on ASA and MAC capable of updating the SFE aerodynamic model.

Wind turbine wakes for wind energy

During recent years, wind energy has moved from an emerging technology to a nearly competitive technology. This fact, coupled with an increasing global focus on environmental concern and a political desire of a certain level of diversification in the energy supply, ensures wind energy an important role in the future electricity market. For this challenge to be met in a cost-efficient way, a substantial part of new wind turbine installations is foreseen to be erected in big onshore or offshore wind farms. This fact makes the production, loading and reliability of turbines operating under such conditions of particular interest.

Pre-Feasibility Study of Hybrid Wind Power-H-2 System Connected to Electrical Grid

The growth of wind power as an electric energy source is profitable from an environmental point of view and improves the energetic independence of countries with little fossil fuel resources. However, the wind resource randomness poses a great challenge in the management of electric grids. This study raises the possibility of using hydrogen as a mean to damp the variability of the wind resource. Thus, it is proposed the use of all the energy produced by a typical wind farm for hydrogen generation, that will in turn be used after for suitable generation of electric energy according to the operation rules in a liberalized electric market.

Use of STATCOM in wind farms with fixed-speed generators for grid code compliance

The increasing penetration of wind energy into power systems has pushed grid operators to set new requirements for this kind of generating plants in order to keep acceptable and reliable operation of the system. In addition to the low voltage ride through capability, wind farms are required to participate in voltage support, stability enhancement and power quality improvement. This paper presents a solution for wind farms with fixed-speed generators based on the use of STATCOM with braking resistor and additional series impedances, with an adequate control strategy. The focus is put on guaranteeing the grid code compliance when the wind farm faces an extensive series of grid disturbances.

Modelling wake effects in large wind farms in complex terrain: the problem, the methods and the issues

Computational fluid dynamic (CFD) methods are used in this paper to predict the power production from entire wind farms in complex terrain and to shed some light into the wake flow patterns. Two full three-dimensional Navier–Stokes solvers for incompressible fluid flow, employing k − ϵ and k − ω turbulence closures, are used. The wind turbines are modeled as momentum absorbers by means of their thrust coefficient through the actuator disk approach. Alternative methods for estimating the reference wind speed in the calculation of the thrust are tested. The work presented in this paper is part of the work being undertaken within the UpWind Integrated Project that aims to develop the design tools for next generation of large wind turbines. In this part of UpWind, the performance of wind farm and wake models is being examined in complex terrain environment where there are few pre-existing relevant measurements. The focus of the work being carried out is to evaluate the performance of CFD models in large wind farm applications in complex terrain and to examine the development of the wakes in a complex terrain environment.

Statistical models for short-term wind power ramp forecasting

La predicción de energía eólica ha desempeñado en la última década un papel fundamental en el aprovechamiento de este recurso renovable, ya que permite reducir el impacto que tiene la naturaleza fluctuante del viento en la actividad de diversos agentes implicados en su integración, tales como el operador del sistema o los agentes del mercado eléctrico. Los altos niveles de penetración eólica alcanzados recientemente por algunos países han puesto de manifiesto la necesidad de mejorar las predicciones durante eventos en los que se experimenta una variación importante de la potencia generada por un parque o un conjunto de ellos en un tiempo relativamente corto (del orden de unas pocas horas). Estos eventos, conocidos como rampas, no tienen una única causa, ya que pueden estar motivados por procesos meteorológicos que se dan en muy diferentes escalas espacio-temporales, desde el paso de grandes frentes en la macroescala a procesos convectivos locales como tormentas. Además, el propio proceso de conversión del viento en energía eléctrica juega un papel relevante en la ocurrencia de rampas debido, entre otros factores, a la relación no lineal que impone la curva de potencia del aerogenerador, la desalineación de la máquina con respecto al viento y la interacción aerodinámica entre aerogeneradores. En este trabajo se aborda la aplicación de modelos estadísticos a la predicción de rampas a muy corto plazo. Además, se investiga la relación de este tipo de eventos con procesos atmosféricos en la macroescala. Los modelos se emplean para generar predicciones de punto a partir del modelado estocástico de una serie temporal de potencia generada por un parque eólico. Los horizontes de predicción considerados van de una a seis horas. Como primer paso, se ha elaborado una metodología para caracterizar rampas en series temporales. La denominada función-rampa está basada en la transformada wavelet y proporciona un índice en cada paso temporal. Este índice caracteriza la intensidad de rampa en base a los gradientes de potencia experimentados en un rango determinado de escalas temporales. Se han implementado tres tipos de modelos predictivos de cara a evaluar el papel que juega la complejidad de un modelo en su desempeño: modelos lineales autorregresivos (AR), modelos de coeficientes variables (VCMs) y modelos basado en redes neuronales (ANNs). Los modelos se han entrenado en base a la minimización del error cuadrático medio y la configuración de cada uno de ellos se ha determinado mediante validación cruzada. De cara a analizar la contribución del estado macroescalar de la atmósfera en la predicción de rampas, se ha propuesto una metodología que permite extraer, a partir de las salidas de modelos meteorológicos, información relevante para explicar la ocurrencia de estos eventos. La metodología se basa en el análisis de componentes principales (PCA) para la síntesis de la datos de la atmósfera y en el uso de la información mutua (MI) para estimar la dependencia no lineal entre dos señales. Esta metodología se ha aplicado a datos de reanálisis generados con un modelo de circulación general (GCM) de cara a generar variables exógenas que posteriormente se han introducido en los modelos predictivos. Los casos de estudio considerados corresponden a dos parques eólicos ubicados en España. Los resultados muestran que el modelado de la serie de potencias permitió una mejora notable con respecto al modelo predictivo de referencia (la persistencia) y que al añadir información de la macroescala se obtuvieron mejoras adicionales del mismo orden. Estas mejoras resultaron mayores para el caso de rampas de bajada. Los resultados también indican distintos grados de conexión entre la macroescala y la ocurrencia de rampas en los dos parques considerados. Abstract One of the main drawbacks of wind energy is that it exhibits intermittent generation greatly depending on environmental conditions. Wind power forecasting has proven to be an effective tool for facilitating wind power integration from both the technical and the economical perspective. Indeed, system operators and energy traders benefit from the use of forecasting techniques, because the reduction of the inherent uncertainty of wind power allows them the adoption of optimal decisions. Wind power integration imposes new challenges as higher wind penetration levels are attained. Wind power ramp forecasting is an example of such a recent topic of interest. The term ramp makes reference to a large and rapid variation (1-4 hours) observed in the wind power output of a wind farm or portfolio. Ramp events can be motivated by a broad number of meteorological processes that occur at different time/spatial scales, from the passage of large-scale frontal systems to local processes such as thunderstorms and thermally-driven flows. Ramp events may also be conditioned by features related to the wind-to-power conversion process, such as yaw misalignment, the wind turbine shut-down and the aerodynamic interaction between wind turbines of a wind farm (wake effect). This work is devoted to wind power ramp forecasting, with special focus on the connection between the global scale and ramp events observed at the wind farm level. The framework of this study is the point-forecasting approach. Time series based models were implemented for very short-term prediction, this being characterised by prediction horizons up to six hours ahead. As a first step, a methodology to characterise ramps within a wind power time series was proposed. The so-called ramp function is based on the wavelet transform and it provides a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step. The underlying idea is that ramps are characterised by high power output gradients evaluated under different time scales. A number of state-of-the-art time series based models were considered, namely linear autoregressive (AR) models, varying-coefficient models (VCMs) and artificial neural networks (ANNs). This allowed us to gain insights into how the complexity of the model contributes to the accuracy of the wind power time series modelling. The models were trained in base of a mean squared error criterion and the final set-up of each model was determined through cross-validation techniques. In order to investigate the contribution of the global scale into wind power ramp forecasting, a methodological proposal to identify features in atmospheric raw data that are relevant for explaining wind power ramp events was presented. The proposed methodology is based on two techniques: principal component analysis (PCA) for atmospheric data compression and mutual information (MI) for assessing non-linear dependence between variables. The methodology was applied to reanalysis data generated with a general circulation model (GCM). This allowed for the elaboration of explanatory variables meaningful for ramp forecasting that were utilized as exogenous variables by the forecasting models. The study covered two wind farms located in Spain. All the models outperformed the reference model (the persistence) during both ramp and non-ramp situations. Adding atmospheric information had a noticeable impact on the forecasting performance, specially during ramp-down events. Results also suggested different levels of connection between the ramp occurrence at the wind farm level and the global scale.

MultiPARTES: Multicore Virtualization for Mixed-Criticality Systems

Modern embedded applications typically integrate a multitude of functionalities with potentially different criticality levels into a single system. Without appropriate preconditions, the integration of mixed-criticality subsystems can lead to a significant and potentially unacceptable increase of engineering and certification costs. A promising solution is to incorporate mechanisms that establish multiple partitions with strict temporal and spatial separation between the individual partitions. In this approach, subsystems with different levels of criticality can be placed in different partitions and can be verified and validated in isolation. The MultiPARTES FP7 project aims at supporting mixed- criticality integration for embedded systems based on virtualization techniques for heterogeneous multicore processors. A major outcome of the project is the MultiPARTES XtratuM, an open source hypervisor designed as a generic virtualization layer for heterogeneous multicore. MultiPARTES evaluates the developed technology through selected use cases from the offshore wind power, space, visual surveillance, and automotive domains. The impact of MultiPARTES on the targeted domains will be also discussed. In a number of ongoing research initiatives (e.g., RECOMP, ARAMIS, MultiPARTES, CERTAINTY) mixed-criticality integration is considered in multicore processors. Key challenges are the combination of software virtualization and hardware segregation and the extension of partitioning mechanisms to jointly address significant non-functional requirements (e.g., time, energy and power budgets, adaptivity, reliability, safety, security, volume, weight, etc.) along with development and certification methodology.

Wind tunnel analysis of the flow topology over complex topographies

El principal objetivo de este trabajo es aportar conocimiento para contestar la pregunta: ¿hasta que punto los ensayos en túnel aerodinámico pueden contribuir a determinar las características que afectan la respuesta dinámica de los aerogeneradores operando en terreno complejo?. Esta pregunta no es nueva, de hecho, el debate en la comunidad científica comenzó en el primer tercio del siglo pasado y aún está intensamente vivo. El método generalmente aceptado para enfrentar el mencionado problema consiste en analizar un caso de estudio determinado en el cual se aplican tanto ensayos a escala real como análisis computacionales y ensayos en túnel aerodinámico. Esto no es ni fácil ni barato. Esta es la razón por la cual desde el experimento de Askervein en 1988, los modelizadores del flujo atmosférico tuvieron que esperar hasta 2007 a que el experimento de Bolund fuese puesto en marcha con un despliegue de medios técnicos equivalentes (teniendo en cuenta la evolución de las tecnologías de sensores y computación). El problema contempla tantos aspectos que ambas experiencias fueron restringidas a condiciones de atmósfera neutra con efectos de Coriolis despreciables con objeto de reducir la complejidad. Este es el contexto en el que se ha desarrollado la presente tesis doctoral. La topología del flujo sobre la isla de Bolund ha sido estudiada mediante la reproducción del experimento de Bolund en los túneles aerodinámicos A9 y ACLA16 del IDR. Dos modelos de la isla de Bolund fueron fabricados a dos escalas, 1:230 y 1:115. El flujo de entrada en el túnel aerodinámico simulando la capa límite sin perturbar correspondía a régimen de transición (transitionally rough regime) y fue usado como situación de referencia. El modelo a escala 1:230 fue ensayado en el túnel A9 para determinar la presión sobre su superficie. La distribución del coeficiente de presión sobre la isla proporcionó una visualización y estimación de una región de desprendimiento sobre el pequeño acantilado situado al frente de la misma. Las medidas de presión instantánea con suficiente grado de resolución temporal pusieron de manifiesto la no estacionariedad en la región de desprendimiento. El modelo a escala 1:115 fue ensayado utilizando hilo caliente de tres componentes y un sistema de velocimetría por imágenes de partículas de dos componentes. El flujo fue caracterizado por el ratio de aceleración, el incremento normalizado de energía cinética turbulenta y los ángulos de inclinación y desviación horizontal. Los resultados a lo largo de la dirección 270°y alturas de 2 m y 5 m presentaron una gran similitud con los resultados a escala real del experimento de Bolund. Los perfiles verticales en las localizaciones de las torres meteorológicas mostraron un acuerdo significativo con los resultados a escala real. El análisis de los esfuerzos de Reynolds y el análisis espectral en las localizaciones de los mástiles meteorológicos presentaron niveles de acuerdo variados en ciertas posiciones, mientras que en otras presentaron claras diferencias. El mapeo horizontal del flujo, para una dirección de viento de 270°, permitió caracterizar el comportamiento de la burbuja intermitente de recirculación sobre el pequeño acantilado existente al frente de la isla así como de la región de relajación y de la capa de cortadura en la región corriente abajo de Bolund. Se realizaron medidas de velocidad con alta resolución espacial en planos perpendiculares a la dirección del flujo sin perturbar. Estas medidas permitieron detectar y caracterizar una estructura de flujo similar a un torbellino longitudinal con regiones con altos gradientes de velocidad y alta intensidad de turbulencia. Esta estructura de flujo es, sin duda, un reto para los modelos computacionales y puede considerarse un factor de riesgo para la operación de los aerogeneradores. Se obtuvieron y analizaron distribuciones espaciales de los esfuerzos de Reynolds mediante 3CHW y PIV. Este tipo de parámetros no constituyen parte de los resultados habituales en los ensayos en túnel sobre topografías y son muy útiles para los modelizadores que utilizan simulación de grades torbellinos (LES). Se proporciona una interpretación de los resultados obtenidos en el túnel aerodinámico en términos de utilidad para los diseñadores de parques eólicos. La evolución y variación de los parámetros del flujo a lo largo de líneas, planos y superficies han permitido identificar como estas propiedades del flujo podrían afectar la localización de los aerogeneradores y a la clasificación de emplazamientos. Los resultados presentados sugieren, bajo ciertas condiciones, la robustez de los ensayos en túnel para estudiar la topología sobre terreno complejo y su comparabilidad con otras técnicas de simulación, especialmente considerando el nivel de acuerdo del conjunto de resultados presentados con los resultados a escala real. De forma adicional, algunos de los parámetros del flujo obtenidos de las medidas en túnel son difícilmente determinables en ensayos a escala real o por medios computacionales, considerado el estado del arte. Este trabajo fue realizado como parte de las actividades subvencionadas por la Comisión Europea como dentro del proyecto FP7-PEOPLE-ITN-2008WAUDIT (Wind Resource Assessment Audit and Standardization) dentro de la FP7 Marie-Curie Initial Training Network y por el Ministerio Español de Economía y Competitividad dentro del proyecto ENE2012-36473, TURCO (Determinación en túnel aerodinámico de la distribución espacial de parámetros estadísticos de la turbulencia atmosférica sobre topografías complejas) del Plan Nacional de Investigación (Subprograma de investigación fundamental no orientada 2012). El informe se ha organizado en siete capítulos y un conjunto de anexos. En el primer capítulo se introduce el problema. En el capítulo dos se describen los medios experimentales utilizados. Seguidamente, en el capítulo tres, se analizan en detalle las condiciones de referencia del principal túnel aerodinámico utilizado en esta investigación. En el capítulo tres se presentan resultados de ensayos de presión superficial sobre un modelo de la isla. Los principales resultados del experimento de Bolund se reproducen en el capítulo cinco. En el capítulo seis se identifican diferentes estructuras del flujo sobre la isla y, finalmente, en el capitulo siete, se recogen las conclusiones y una propuesta de lineas de trabajo futuras. ABSTRACT The main objective of this work is to contribute to answer the question: to which extend can the wind tunnel testing contribute to determine the flow characteristics that affect the dynamic response of wind turbines operating in highly complex terrains?. This question is not new, indeed, the debate in the scientific community was opened in the first third of the past century and it is still intensely alive. The accepted approach to face this problem consists in analysing a given case study where full-scale tests, computational modelling and wind tunnel testing are applied to the same topography. This is neither easy nor cheap. This is is the reason why since the Askervein experience in 1988, the atmospheric flow modellers community had to wait till 2007 when the Bolund experiment was setup with a deployment of technical means equivalent (considering the evolution of the sensor and computing techniques). The problem is so manifold that both experiences were restricted to neutral conditions without Coriolis effects in order to reduce the complexity. This is the framework in which this PhD has been carried out. The flow topology over the Bolund Island has been studied by replicating the Bolund experiment in the IDR A9 and ACLA16 wind tunnels. Two mock-ups of the Bolund island were manufactured at two scales of 1:230 and 1:115. The in-flow in the empty wind tunnel simulating the incoming atmospheric boundary layer was in the transitionally rough regime and used as a reference case. The 1:230 model was tested in the A9 wind tunnel to measure surface pressure. The mapping of the pressure coefficient across the island gave a visualisation and estimation of a detachment region on the top of the escarpment in front of the island. Time resolved instantaneous pressure measurements illustrated the non-steadiness in the detachment region. The 1:115 model was tested using 3C hot-wires(HW) and 2C Particle Image Velocimetry(PIV). Measurements at met masts M3, M6, M7 and M8 and along Line 270°were taken to replicate the result of the Bolund experiment. The flow was characterised by the speed-up ratio, normalised increment of the turbulent kinetic energy, inclination angle and turning angle. Results along line 270°at heights of 2 m and 5 m compared very well with the full-scale results of the Bolund experiment. Vertical profiles at the met masts showed a significant agreement with the full-scale results. The analysis of the Reynolds stresses and the spectral analysis at the met mast locations gave a varied level of agreement at some locations while clear mismatch at others. The horizontal mapping of the flow field, for a 270°wind direction, allowed to characterise the behaviour of the intermittent recirculation bubble on top of the front escarpment followed by a relaxation region and the presence of a shear layer in the lee side of the island. Further detailed velocity measurements were taken at cross-flow planes over the island to study the flow structures on the island. A longitudinal vortex-like structure with high mean velocity gradients and high turbulent kinetic energy was characterised on the escarpment and evolving downstream. This flow structure is a challenge to the numerical models while posing a threat to wind farm designers when siting wind turbines. Spatial distribution of Reynold stresses were presented from 3C HW and PIV measurements. These values are not common results from usual wind tunnel measurements and very useful for modellers using large eddy simulation (LES). An interpretation of the wind tunnel results in terms of usefulness to wind farm designers is given. Evolution and variation of the flow parameters along measurement lines, planes and surfaces indicated how the flow field could affect wind turbine siting. Different flow properties were presented so compare the level of agreement to full-scale results and how this affected when characterising the site wind classes. The results presented suggest, under certain conditions, the robustness of the wind tunnel testing for studying flow topology over complex terrain and its capability to compare to other modelling techniques especially from the level of agreement between the different data sets presented. Additionally, some flow parameters obtained from wind tunnel measurements would have been quite difficult to be measured at full-scale or by computational means considering the state of the art. This work was carried out as a part of the activities supported by the EC as part of the FP7- PEOPLE-ITN-2008 WAUDIT project (Wind Resource Assessment Audit and Standardization) within the FP7 Marie-Curie Initial Training Network and by the Spanish Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, within the framework of the ENE2012-36473, TURCO project (Determination of the Spatial Distribution of Statistic Parameters of Flow Turbulence over Complex Topographies in Wind Tunnel) belonging to the Spanish National Program of Research (Subprograma de investigación fundamental no orientada 2012). The report is organised in seven chapters and a collection of annexes. In chapter one, the problem is introduced. In chapter two the experimental setup is described. Following, in chapter three, the inflow conditions of the main wind tunnel used in this piece of research are analysed in detail. In chapter three, preliminary pressure tests results on a model of the island are presented. The main results from the Bolund experiment are replicated in chapter five. In chapter six, an identification of specific flow strutures over the island is presented and, finally, in chapter seven, conclusions and lines for future works related to the presented one are included.

Detecting and characterising ramp events in wind power time series

In order to implement accurate models for wind power ramp forecasting, ramps need to be previously characterised. This issue has been typically addressed by performing binary ramp/non-ramp classifications based on ad-hoc assessed thresholds. However, recent works question this approach. This paper presents the ramp function, an innovative wavelet- based tool which detects and characterises ramp events in wind power time series. The underlying idea is to assess a continuous index related to the ramp intensity at each time step, which is obtained by considering large power output gradients evaluated under different time scales (up to typical ramp durations). The ramp function overcomes some of the drawbacks shown by the aforementioned binary classification and permits forecasters to easily reveal specific features of the ramp behaviour observed at a wind farm. As an example, the daily profile of the ramp-up and ramp-down intensities are obtained for the case of a wind farm located in Spain

Hydrodynamic forces on heave plates for offshore systems oscillating close to the seabed or the free surface

La energía eólica marina es uno de los recursos energéticos con mayor proyección pudiendo contribuir a reducir el consumo de combustibles fósiles y a cubrir la demanda de energía en todo el mundo. El concepto de aerogenerador marino está basado en estructuras fijas como jackets o en plataformas flotantes, ya sea una semisumergible o una TLP. Se espera que la energía eólica offshore juegue un papel importante en el perfil de producción energética de los próximos años; por tanto, las turbinas eólicas deben hacerse más fables y rentables para ser competitivas frente a otras fuentes de energía. Las estructuras flotantes pueden experimentar movimientos resonantes en estados de la mar con largos períodos de oleaje. Estos movimientos disminuyen su operatividad y pueden causar daños en los componentes eléctricos de las turbinas y en las palas, también en los risers y moorings. La respuesta de la componente vertical del movimiento puede reducirse mediante diferentes actuaciones: (1) aumentando la amortiguación del sistema, (2) manteniendo el período del movimiento vertical fuera del rango de la energía de la ola, y (3) reduciendo las fuerzas de excitación verticales. Un ejemplo típico para llevar a cabo esta reducción son las "Heave Plates". Las heave plates son placas que se utilizan en la industria offshore debido a sus características hidrodinámicas, ya que aumentan la masa añadida y la amortiguación del sistema. En un análisis hidrodinámico convencional, se considera una estructura sometida a un oleaje con determinadas características y se evalúan las cargas lineales usando la teoría potencial. El amortiguamiento viscoso, que juega un papel crucial en la respuesta en resonancia del sistema, es un dato de entrada para el análisis. La tesis se centra principalmente en la predicción del amortiguamiento viscoso y de la masa añadida de las heave plates usadas en las turbinas eólicas flotantes. En los cálculos, las fuerzas hidrodinámicas se han obtenido con el f n de estudiar cómo los coeficientes hidrodinámicos de masa añadida5 y amortiguamiento varían con el número de KC, que caracteriza la amplitud del movimiento respecto al diámetro del disco. Por otra parte, se ha investigado la influencia de la distancia media de la ‘heave plate’ a la superficie libre o al fondo del mar, sobre los coeficientes hidrodinámicos. En este proceso, un nuevo modelo que describe el trabajo realizado por la amortiguación en función de la enstrofía, es descrito en el presente documento. Este nuevo enfoque es capaz de proporcionar una correlación directa entre el desprendimiento local de vorticidad y la fuerza de amortiguación global. El análisis también incluye el estudio de los efectos de la geometría de la heave plate, y examina la sensibilidad de los coeficientes hidrodinámicos al incluir porosidad en ésta. Un diseño novedoso de una heave plate, basado en la teoría fractal, también fue analizado experimentalmente y comparado con datos experimentales obtenidos por otros autores. Para la resolución de las ecuaciones de Navier Stokes se ha usado un solver basado en el método de volúmenes finitos. El solver usa las librerías de OpenFOAM (Open source Field Operation And Manipulation), para resolver un problema multifásico e incompresible, usando la técnica VOF (volume of fluid) que permite capturar el movimiento de la superficie libre. Los resultados numéricos han sido comparados con resultados experimentales llevados a cabo en el Canal del Ensayos Hidrodinámicos (CEHINAV) de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid y en el Canal de Experiencias Hidrodinámicas (CEHIPAR) en Madrid, al igual que con otros experimentos realizados en la Escuela de Ingeniería Mecánica de la Universidad de Western Australia. Los principales resultados se presentan a continuación: 1. Para pequeños valores de KC, los coeficientes hidrodinámicos de masa añadida y amortiguamiento incrementan su valor a medida que el disco se aproxima al fondo marino. Para los casos cuando el disco oscila cerca de la superficie libre, la dependencia de los coeficientes hidrodinámicos es más fuerte por la influencia del movimiento de la superficie libre. 2. Los casos analizados muestran la existencia de un valor crítico de KC, donde la tendencia de los coeficientes hidrodinámicos se ve alterada. Dicho valor crítico depende de la distancia al fondo marino o a la superficie libre. 3. El comportamiento físico del flujo, para valores de KC cercanos a su valor crítico ha sido estudiado mediante el análisis del campo de vorticidad. 4. Introducir porosidad al disco, reduce la masa añadida para los valores de KC estudiados, pero se ha encontrado que la porosidad incrementa el valor del coeficiente de amortiguamiento cuando se incrementa la amplitud del movimiento, logrando un máximo de damping para un disco con 10% de porosidad. 5. Los resultados numéricos y experimentales para los discos con faldón, muestran que usar este tipo de geometrías incrementa la masa añadida cuando se compara con el disco sólido, pero reduce considerablemente el coeficiente de amortiguamiento. 6. Un diseño novedoso de heave plate basado en la teoría fractal ha sido experimentalmente estudiado a diferentes calados y comparado con datos experimentales obtenidos por otro autores. Los resultados muestran un comportamiento incierto de los coeficientes y por tanto este diseño debería ser estudiado más a fondo. ABSTRACT Offshore wind energy is one of the promising resources which can reduce the fossil fuel energy consumption and cover worldwide energy demands. Offshore wind turbine concepts are based on either a fixed structure as a jacket or a floating offshore platform like a semisubmersible, spar or tension leg platform. Floating offshore wind turbines have the potential to be an important part of the energy production profile in the coming years. In order to accomplish this wind integration, these wind turbines need to be made more reliable and cost efficient to be competitive with other sources of energy. Floating offshore artifacts, such oil rings and wind turbines, may experience resonant heave motions in sea states with long peak periods. These heave resonances may increase the system downtime and cause damage on the system components and as well as on risers and mooring systems. The heave resonant response may be reduced by different means: (1) increasing the damping of the system, (2) keeping the natural heave period outside the range of the wave energy, and (3) reducing the heave excitation forces. A typical example to accomplish this reduction are “Heave Plates”. Heave plates are used in the offshore industry due to their hydrodynamic characteristics, i.e., increased added mass and damping. Conventional offshore hydrodynamic analysis considers a structure in waves, and evaluates the linear and nonlinear loads using potential theory. Viscous damping, which is expected to play a crucial role in the resonant response, is an empirical input to the analysis, and is not explicitly calculated. The present research has been mainly focused on the prediction of viscous damping and added mass of floating offshore wind turbine heave plates. In the calculations, the hydrodynamic forces have been measured in order to compute how the hydrodynamic coefficients of added mass1 and damping vary with the KC number, which characterises the amplitude of heave motion relative to the diameter of the disc. In addition, the influence on the hydrodynamic coefficients when the heave plate is oscillating close to the free surface or the seabed has been investigated. In this process, a new model describing the work done by damping in terms of the flow enstrophy, is described herein. This new approach is able to provide a direct correlation between the local vortex shedding processes and the global damping force. The analysis also includes the study of different edges geometry, and examines the sensitivity of the damping and added mass coefficients to the porosity of the plate. A novel porous heave plate based on fractal theory has also been proposed, tested experimentally and compared with experimental data obtained by other authors for plates with similar porosity. A numerical solver of Navier Stokes equations, based on the finite volume technique has been applied. It uses the open-source libraries of OpenFOAM (Open source Field Operation And Manipulation), to solve 2 incompressible, isothermal immiscible fluids using a VOF (volume of fluid) phase-fraction based interface capturing approach, with optional mesh motion and mesh topology changes including adaptive re-meshing. Numerical results have been compared with experiments conducted at Technical University of Madrid (CEHINAV) and CEHIPAR model basins in Madrid and with others performed at School of Mechanical Engineering in The University of Western Australia. A brief summary of main results are presented below: 1. At low KC numbers, a systematic increase in added mass and damping, corresponding to an increase in the seabed proximity, is observed. Specifically, for the cases when the heave plate is oscillating closer to the free surface, the dependence of the hydrodynamic coefficients is strongly influenced by the free surface. 2. As seen in experiments, a critical KC, where the linear trend of the hydrodynamic coefficients with KC is disrupted and that depends on the seabed or free surface distance, has been found. 3. The physical behavior of the flow around the critical KC has been explained through an analysis of the flow vorticity field. 4. The porosity of the heave plates reduces the added mass for the studied porosity at all KC numbers, but the porous heave plates are found to increase the damping coefficient with increasing amplitude of oscillation, achieving a maximum damping coefficient for the heave plate with 10% porosity in the entire KC range. 5. Another concept taken into account in this work has been the heave plates with flaps. Numerical and experimental results show that using discs with flaps will increase added mass when compared to the plain plate but may also significantly reduce damping. 6. A novel heave plate design based on fractal theory has tested experimentally for different submergences and compared with experimental data obtained by other authors for porous plates. Results show an unclear behavior in the coefficients and should be studied further. Future work is necessary in order to address a series of open questions focusing on 3D effects, optimization of the heave plates shapes, etc.

Comparison of Wildlife Impacts Associated with Uranium In-Situ Recovery and Wind Farms in Wyoming

Wyoming has multiple resources including non-renewable sources, renewable sources, as well as its wildlife. Two of these resources are uranium and wind. Currently wind farms in Wyoming are generating approximately 5 million MW of power, with less of an impact on wildlife than in-situ facilities. In-situ facilities in 2007 produced an estimated 32 million MW of power from uranium, with a greater impact to wildlife than wind farms. Both resources have a great potential in Wyoming and both will have an impact on wildlife. Currently wind farms show less of an impact on wildlife but they are also producing fewer megawatts. The potential for wind-generated energy over the next century shows wildlife impacts will be greater than impacts from ISR facilities.

Wind power forecasts using Gaussian processes and numerical weather prediction

Since wind at the earth's surface has an intrinsically complex and stochastic nature, accurate wind power forecasts are necessary for the safe and economic use of wind energy. In this paper, we investigated a combination of numeric and probabilistic models: a Gaussian process (GP) combined with a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model was applied to wind-power forecasting up to one day ahead. First, the wind-speed data from NWP was corrected by a GP, then, as there is always a defined limit on power generated in a wind turbine due to the turbine controlling strategy, wind power forecasts were realized by modeling the relationship between the corrected wind speed and power output using a censored GP. To validate the proposed approach, three real-world datasets were used for model training and testing. The empirical results were compared with several classical wind forecast models, and based on the mean absolute error (MAE), the proposed model provides around 9% to 14% improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to an artificial neural network (ANN) model, and nearly 17% improvement on a third dataset which is from a newly-built wind farm for which there is a limited amount of training data. © 2013 IEEE.

Modelagem e análise dinâmica de um sistema de conversão de energia eólica dotado de gerador síncrono de imã permanente utilizando a plataforma ATP

Human development requires a broad balance between ecological, social and economic factors in order to ensure its own sustainability. In this sense, the search for new sources of energy generation, with low deployment and operation costs, which cause the least possible impact to the environment, has been the focus of attention of all society segments. To do so, the reduction in exploration of fossil fuels and the encouragement of using renewable energy resources for distributed generation have proved interesting alternatives to the expansion of the energy matrix of various countries in the world. In this sense, the wind energy has acquired an increasingly significant role, presenting increasing rates of power grid penetration and highlighting technological innovations such as the use of permanent magnet synchronous generators (PMSG). In Brazil, this fact has also been noted and, as a result, the impact of the inclusion of this source in the distribution and sub-transmission power grid has been a major concern of utilities and agents connected to Brazilian electrical sector. Thus, it is relevant the development of appropriate computational tools that allow detailed predictive studies about the dynamic behavior of wind farms, either operating with isolated load, either connected to the main grid, taking also into account the implementation of control strategies for active/reactive power generation and the keeping of adequate levels of voltage and frequency. This work fits in this context since it comprises mathematical and computational developments of a complete wind energy conversion system (WECS) endowed with PMSG using time domain techniques of Alternative Transients Program (ATP), which prides itself a recognized reputation by scientific and academic communities as well as by electricity professionals in Brazil and elsewhere. The modeling procedures performed allowed the elaboration of blocks representing each of the elements of a real WECS, comprising the primary source (the wind), the wind turbine, the PMSG, the frequency converter, the step up transformer, the load composition and the power grid equivalent. Special attention is also given to the implementation of wind turbine control techniques, mainly the pitch control responsible for keeping the generator under the maximum power operation point, and the vector theory that aims at adjusting the active/reactive power flow between the wind turbine and the power grid. Several simulations are performed to investigate the dynamic behavior of the wind farm when subjected to different operating conditions and/or on the occurrence of wind intensity variations. The results have shown the effectiveness of both mathematical and computational modeling developed for the wind turbine and the associated controls.

Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia’s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Dynamic effects of anchor positional tolerance on tension moored floating wind turbine

For water depths greater than 60m floating wind turbines will become the most economical option for generating offshore wind energy. Tension mooring stabilised units are one type of platform being considered by the offshore wind energy industry. The complex mooring arrangement used by this type of platform means that the dynamics are greatly effected by offsets in the positioning of the anchors. This paper examines the issue of tendon anchor position tolerances. The dynamic effects of three positional tolerances are analysed in survival state using the time domain FASTLink. The severe impact of worst case anchor positional offsets on platform and turbine survivability is shown. The worst anchor misposition combinations are highlighted and should be strongly avoided. Novel methods to mitigate this issue are presented.