Detection of clusters using space-time scan statistics

This paper aims at detecting spatio-temporal clustering in fire sequences using space?time scan statistics, a powerful statistical framework for the analysis of point processes. The methodology is applied to active fire detection in the state of Florida (US) identified by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) during the period 2003?06. Results of the present study show that statistically significant clusters can be detected and localized in specific areas and periods of the year. Three out of the five most likely clusters detected for the entire frame period are localized in the north of the state, and they cover forest areas; the other two clusters cover a large zone in the south, corresponding to agricultural land and the prairies in the Everglades. In order to analyze if the wildfires recur each year during the same period, the analyses have been performed separately for the 4 years: it emerges that clusters of forest fires are more frequent in hot seasons (spring and summer), while in the southern areas, they are widely present during the whole year. The recognition of overdensities of events and the ability to locate them in space and in time can help in supporting fire management and focussing on prevention measures.

Testing reciprocity in social interactions: A comparison between the Directional consistency and Skew symmetry statistics

In the present work we focus on two indices that quantify directionality and skew-symmetrical patterns in social interactions as measures of social reciprocity: the Directional consistency (DC) and Skew symmetry indices. Although both indices enable researchers to describe social groups, most studies require statistical inferential tests. The main aims of the present study are: firstly, to propose an overall statistical technique for testing null hypotheses regarding social reciprocity in behavioral studies, using the DC and Skew symmetry statistics (Φ) at group level; and secondly, to compare both statistics in order to allow researchers to choose the optimal measure depending on the conditions. In order to allow researchers to make statistical decisions, statistical significance for both statistics has been estimated by means of a Monte Carlo simulation. Furthermore, this study will enable researchers to choose the optimal observational conditions for carrying out their research, as the power of the statistical tests has been estimated.

Spatial statistics applied to soybean production data from Paraná State for 2003-04 to 2009-10 crop-years

In the current study, we performed a soybean production spatial distribution analysis in Paraná State. Seven crop-year data, from 2003-04 to 2009-10, obtained from the Paraná Department of Agriculture and Supply (SEAB) were used to develop a Boxmap for each crop-year, show soybean production throughout this time interval. Moran's index was used to measure spatial autocorrelation among municipalities at an aggregate level, while LISA index local correlation. For each index, different contiguity matrix and order were used and there was a significance level study. As a result, we have showed spatial relationship among cities regarding the production, which allowed the indication of high and low production clusters. Finally, identifying main soybean-producing cities, what may provide supply chain members with information to strengthen the crop production in Paraná.

Edge excitations and topological order in rotating Bose gas

The edge excitations and related topological orders of correlated states of a fast rotating Bose gas are studied. Using exact diagonalization of small systems, we compute the energies and number of edge excitations, as well as the boson occupancy near the edge for various states. The chiral Luttinger-liquid theory of Wen is found to be a good description of the edges of the bosonic Laughlin and other states identified as members of the principal Jain sequence for bosons. However, we find that in a harmonic trap the edge of the state identified as the Moore-Read (Pfaffian) state shows a number of anomalies. An experimental way of detecting these correlated states is also discussed.

Some problems in set topology relating group of homeomorphisms and order

In this thesis we investigate some problems in set theoretical topology related to the concepts of the group of homeomorphisms and order. Many problems considered are directly or indirectly related to the concept of the group of homeomorphisms of a topological space onto itself. Order theoretic methods are used extensively. Chapter-l deals with the group of homeomorphisms. This concept has been investigated by several authors for many years from different angles. It was observed that nonhomeomorphic topological spaces can have isomorphic groups of homeomorphisms. Many problems relating the topological properties of a space and the algebraic properties of its group of homeomorphisms were investigated. The group of isomorphisms of several algebraic, geometric, order theoretic and topological structures had also been investigated. A related concept of the semigroup of continuous functions of a topological space also received attention

A stochastic parameterization for deep convection based on equilibrium statistics

A stochastic parameterization scheme for deep convection is described, suitable for use in both climate and NWP models. Theoretical arguments and the results of cloud-resolving models, are discussed in order to motivate the form of the scheme. In the deterministic limit, it tends to a spectrum of entraining/detraining plumes and is similar to other current parameterizations. The stochastic variability describes the local fluctuations about a large-scale equilibrium state. Plumes are drawn at random from a probability distribution function (pdf) that defines the chance of finding a plume of given cloud-base mass flux within each model grid box. The normalization of the pdf is given by the ensemble-mean mass flux, and this is computed with a CAPE closure method. The characteristics of each plume produced are determined using an adaptation of the plume model from the Kain-Fritsch parameterization. Initial tests in the single column version of the Unified Model verify that the scheme is effective in producing the desired distributions of convective variability without adversely affecting the mean state.

Cloud statistics and cloud radiative effect for a low-mountain site

In 2007, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility (AMF) was operated for a nine-month period in the Murg Valley, Black Forest, Germany, in support of the Convective and Orographically-induced Precipitation Study (COPS). The synergy of AMF and COPS partner instrumentation was exploited to derive a set of high-quality thermodynamic and cloud property profiles with 30 s resolution. In total, clouds were present 72% of the time, with multi-layer mixed phase (28.4%) and single-layer water clouds (11.3%) occurring most frequently. A comparison with the Cloudnet sites Chilbolton and Lindenberg for the same time period revealed that the Murg Valley exhibits lower liquid water paths (LWPs; median = 37.5 g m−2) compared to the two sites located in flat terrain. In order to evaluate the derived thermodynamic and cloud property profiles, a radiative closure study was performed with independent surface radiation measurements. In clear sky, average differences between calculated and observed surface fluxes are less than 2% and 4% for the short wave and long wave part, respectively. In cloudy situations, differences between simulated and observed fluxes, particularly in the short wave part, are much larger, but most of these can be related to broken cloud situations. The daytime cloud radiative effect (CRE), i.e. the difference of cloudy and clear-sky net fluxes, has been analysed for the whole nine-month period. For overcast, single-layer water clouds, sensitivity studies revealed that the CRE uncertainty is likewise determined by uncertainties in liquid water content and effective radius. For low LWP clouds, CRE uncertainty is dominated by LWP uncertainty; therefore refined retrievals, such as using infrared and/or higher microwave frequencies, are needed.

Influence diagnostics for linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors

We introduce in this paper the class of linear models with first-order autoregressive elliptical errors. The score functions and the Fisher information matrices are derived for the parameters of interest and an iterative process is proposed for the parameter estimation. Some robustness aspects of the maximum likelihood estimates are discussed. The normal curvatures of local influence are also derived for some usual perturbation schemes whereas diagnostic graphics to assess the sensitivity of the maximum likelihood estimates are proposed. The methodology is applied to analyse the daily log excess return on the Microsoft whose empirical distributions appear to have AR(1) and heavy-tailed errors. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NUCLEAR DENSITIES AND THE STATISTICS OF NUCLEONIC CONSTITUENTS

In the quark model of the nucleon, the Fermi statistics of the elementary constituents can influence significantly the properties of multinucleon bound systems. In the Skyrme model, on the other hand, the basic quanta are bosons, so that qualitatively different statistics effects can be expected a priori. In order to illustrate this point, we construct schematic one-dimensional quark and soliton models which yield fermionic nucleons with identical baryon densities. We then compare the baryon densities of a two-nucleon bound state in both models. Whereas in the quark model the Pauli principle for quarks leads to a depletion of the density in the central region of the nucleus, the soliton model predicts a slight increase of the density in that region, due to the bosonic statistics of the meson-field quanta.

ECLAC Development of official statistics in the region. Report of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean on the development of official statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean

This document was prepared by the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC); and offers a description of the main trends in the development of official statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean and the principal challenges in that regard.The first chapter provides an analysis of the state of development of statistical production in the region, based on statistical information for 41 Latin American and Caribbean countries and eight specific areas. The institutional organization of national statistical systems in the region is also described. Chapter II examines the history and current status of mechanisms for regional and subregional coordination and of the Statistical Conference of the Americas of ECLAC. Chapter III describes the main challenges for official statistics in the countries of the region and the strategies that the Statistical Conference of the Americas and ECLAC propose to implement in order to address them.

Proposal for a code of good practice in statistics in Latin America and the Caribbean and implementation plan for 2012-2013

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COMMUTATIVE AUTOMORPHIC LOOPS OF ORDER p(3)

A loop is said to be automorphic if its inner mappings are automorphisms. For a prime p, denote by A(p) the class of all 2-generated commutative automorphic loops Q possessing a central subloop Z congruent to Z(p) such that Q/Z congruent to Z(p) x Z(p). Upon describing the free 2-generated nilpotent class two commutative automorphic loop and the free 2-generated nilpotent class two commutative automorphic p-loop F-p in the variety of loops whose elements have order dividing p(2) and whose associators have order dividing p, we show that every loop of A(p) is a quotient of F-p by a central subloop of order p(3). The automorphism group of F-p induces an action of GL(2)(p) on the three-dimensional subspaces of Z(F-p) congruent to (Z(p))(4). The orbits of this action are in one-to-one correspondence with the isomorphism classes of loops from A(p). We describe the orbits, and hence we classify the loops of A(p) up to isomorphism. It is known that every commutative automorphic p-loop is nilpotent when p is odd, and that there is a unique commutative automorphic loop of order 8 with trivial center. Knowing A(p) up to isomorphism, we easily obtain a classification of commutative automorphic loops of order p(3). There are precisely seven commutative automorphic loops of order p(3) for every prime p, including the three abelian groups of order p(3).

On the geometry of the spin-statistics connection in quantum mechanics

The Spin-Statistics theorem states that the statistics of a system of identical particles is determined by their spin: Particles of integer spin are Bosons (i.e. obey Bose-Einstein statistics), whereas particles of half-integer spin are Fermions (i.e. obey Fermi-Dirac statistics). Since the original proof by Fierz and Pauli, it has been known that the connection between Spin and Statistics follows from the general principles of relativistic Quantum Field Theory. In spite of this, there are different approaches to Spin-Statistics and it is not clear whether the theorem holds under assumptions that are different, and even less restrictive, than the usual ones (e.g. Lorentz-covariance). Additionally, in Quantum Mechanics there is a deep relation between indistinguishabilty and the geometry of the configuration space. This is clearly illustrated by Gibbs' paradox. Therefore, for many years efforts have been made in order to find a geometric proof of the connection between Spin and Statistics. Recently, various proposals have been put forward, in which an attempt is made to derive the Spin-Statistics connection from assumptions different from the ones used in the relativistic, quantum field theoretic proofs. Among these, there is the one due to Berry and Robbins (BR), based on the postulation of a certain single-valuedness condition, that has caused a renewed interest in the problem. In the present thesis, we consider the problem of indistinguishability in Quantum Mechanics from a geometric-algebraic point of view. An approach is developed to study configuration spaces Q having a finite fundamental group, that allows us to describe different geometric structures of Q in terms of spaces of functions on the universal cover of Q. In particular, it is shown that the space of complex continuous functions over the universal cover of Q admits a decomposition into C(Q)-submodules, labelled by the irreducible representations of the fundamental group of Q, that can be interpreted as the spaces of sections of certain flat vector bundles over Q. With this technique, various results pertaining to the problem of quantum indistinguishability are reproduced in a clear and systematic way. Our method is also used in order to give a global formulation of the BR construction. As a result of this analysis, it is found that the single-valuedness condition of BR is inconsistent. Additionally, a proposal aiming at establishing the Fermi-Bose alternative, within our approach, is made.

MODIFIED TEST STATISTICS BY INTER-VOXEL VARIANCE SHRINKAGE WITH AN APPLICATION TO fMRI

Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging (fMRI) is a non-invasive technique which is commonly used to quantify changes in blood oxygenation and flow coupled to neuronal activation. One of the primary goals of fMRI studies is to identify localized brain regions where neuronal activation levels vary between groups. Single voxel t-tests have been commonly used to determine whether activation related to the protocol differs across groups. Due to the generally limited number of subjects within each study, accurate estimation of variance at each voxel is difficult. Thus, combining information across voxels in the statistical analysis of fMRI data is desirable in order to improve efficiency. Here we construct a hierarchical model and apply an Empirical Bayes framework on the analysis of group fMRI data, employing techniques used in high throughput genomic studies. The key idea is to shrink residual variances by combining information across voxels, and subsequently to construct an improved test statistic in lieu of the classical t-statistic. This hierarchical model results in a shrinkage of voxel-wise residual sample variances towards a common value. The shrunken estimator for voxelspecific variance components on the group analyses outperforms the classical residual error estimator in terms of mean squared error. Moreover, the shrunken test-statistic decreases false positive rate when testing differences in brain contrast maps across a wide range of simulation studies. This methodology was also applied to experimental data regarding a cognitive activation task.