The meso-scale response of subarctic North Pacific seabird community structure to lower trophic level abundance and diversity

Understanding the mechanisms that structure communities and influence biodiversity are fundamental goals of ecology. To test the hypothesis that the abundance and diversity of upper-trophic level predators (seabirds) is related to the underlying abundance and diversity of their prey (zooplankton) and ecosystem-wide energy availability (primary production), we initiated a monitoring program in 2002 that jointly and repeatedly surveys seabird and zooplankton populations across a 7,500 km British Columbia-Bering Sea-Japan transect. Seabird distributions were recorded by a single observer (MH) using a strip-width technique, mesozooplankton samples were collected with a Continuous Plankton Recorder, and primary production levels were derived using the appropriate satellite parameters and the Vertically Generalized Production Model (Behrenfeld and Falkowski 1997). Each trophic level showed clear spatio-temporal patterns over the course of the study. The strongest relationship between seabird abundance and diversity and the lower trophic levels was observed in March/April ('spring') and significant relationships were also found through June/July ('summer'). No discernable relationships were observed during the September/October ('fall') months. Overall, mesozooplankton abundance and biomass explained the dominant portion of seabird abundance and diversity indices (richness, Simpson's Index, and evenness), while primary production was only related to seabird richness. These findings underscore the notion that perturbations of ocean productivity and lower trophic level ecosystem constituents influenced by climate change, such as shifts in timing (phenology) and synchronicity (match-mismatch), could impart far-reaching consequences throughout the marine food web.

Spatial Heterogeneity and Genetic Variation in the Copepod Neocalanus Cristatus Along Two Transects in the North Pacific Sampled By the Continuous Plankton Recorder

We present a macrogeographic study of spatial heterogeneity in an important subarctic Pacific copepod and describe the first genetic analysis of population structure using Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples. Samples of Neocalanus cristatus were collected at a constant depth of similar to 7 m from two CPR tow-routes, (i) an east-west similar to 6500-km transect from Vancouver Island, Canada to Hokkaido Island, Japan, and (ii) a north-south transect of similar to 2250 km from Anchorage, Alaska to Tacoma, Washington. Analysis of these samples revealed three features of the biology of N. cristatus. First, N. cristatus undergoes small-scale diel vertical migration that is larger among stages CV- adult (3-6 times more abundant at 7 m at night), than stages CI-CIV (only 2-4 times higher at night). Secondly, while there were no regions where N. cristatus did not appear, each transect sampled a few large-scale macrogeographic patches. Thirdly, an analysis of molecular variation, using a partial sequence of the N. cristatus cytochrome oxidase I gene, revealed that 7.3% (P < 0.0001) of the total genetic variation among N. cristatus sampled from macrogeographic patches by the CPR could be explained by spatial heterogeneity. We suggest that spatial heterogeneity at macrogeographic scales may be important in plankton evolution.

Distribution and Seasonal Cycles of Decapod Crustacean Larvae in Continuous Plankton Records from the North Pacific Ocean

Decapoda taken in Continuous Plankton Recorder (CPR) samples from the Pacific in 1997 and 2000-2003 have been identified and measured. Some previously un-described larval stages were referred to species and characteristics of these are described. Distributions and seasonal occurrence of decapod taxa in the samples are described and discussed with particular emphasis on the dendrobranchiate shrimp Sergestes similis and the brachyurans Cancer spp. And Chionoecetes spp. There is a prolonged larval season at low levels of abundance off the Californian coast but in the more northern waters there is a shorter productive period but numbers of larvae per sample are high, particularly in June. Larvae of Chionoecetes and other Oregoninae were found only from May to July.

Macro-ecology of plankton–seabird associations in the North Pacific Ocean

In conjunction with the North Pacific Continuous Plankton Recorder program, we conducted surveys of seabirds from June 2002 to June 2007. Here, we tested the hypotheses of (i) east–west variations in coupled plankton and seabird abundance, and (ii) that surface-feeding and diving seabirds vary in their relationships to primary productivity and mesozooplankton species abundance and diversity. To test these hypotheses, we developed statistical models for 20 species of seabirds and 12 zooplankton taxonomic groups. Seabird density was highly variable between seasons, but was consistently higher in the western than eastern North Pacific. Seabird diversity was greater in the east. Zooplankton abundance did not differ between regions. We found associations at the “bulk” level between seabird density and net primary productivity, but only one association between seabirds and total zooplankton abundance or diversity. However, we found many relationships between seabird species and the abundance of different zooplankton summarized at the genus or family level. Some of these taxonomic relationships reflect direct predator–prey interactions, while others may reflect zooplankton that serve as ecological indicators of other prey, such as micronekton, upon which the birds may feed. Surface or near-surface feeding, mostly piscivorous seabirds, did not differ systematically from diving, mainly planktivorous seabirds in their zooplankton associations. Seabirds apparently respond to zooplankton taxonomic groupings more so than bulk zooplankton characteristics, such as abundance or diversity. Macro-ecological studies of remote marine ecosystems using zooplankton and seabirds as ecological indicators provide a framework for understanding and assessing spatial and temporal variations in these difficult-to-study pelagic environments.

The genus Pikea (Dumontiaceae, Rhodophyta) in England and the North Pacific: Comparative morphological, life history, and molecular studies

A Pikea species attributed to Pikea californica Harvey has been established in England since at least 1967. Previously, this species was believed to occur only in Japan and Pacific North America. Comparative morphological studies on field-collected material and cultured isolates from England, California, and Japan and analysis of organellar DNA restriction fragment length polymorphisms, detected using labeled organellar DNA as a non-radioactive probe, showed that English Pikea is conspecific with P. californica from California. Both populations consist of dioecious gametophytes with heteromorphic life histories involving crustose tetrasporophytes; 96% of organellar DNA bands were shared between interoceanic samples. A second dioecious species of Pikea, P. pinnata Setchell In Collins, Holden et Setchell, grows sympatrically with P. californica near San Francisco but can be distinguished by softer texture, more regular branching pattern, and elongate cystocarpic axes. Pikea pinnata and P. californica samples shared 49-50% of organellar DNA bands, consistent with their being distinct species. Herbarium specimens of P. robusta Abbott resemble P. pinnata in some morphological features but axes are much wider; P. robusta may represent a further, strictly subtidal species but fertile material is unknown. Pikea thalli from Japan, previously attributed to P. californica and described here as Pikea yoshizakii sp. nov., are monoecious and show a strikingly different type of life history. After fertilization, gonimoblast filaments grow outward through the cortex and form tetrasporangial nemathecia; released tetraspores develop directly into erect thalli. Tetrasporoblastic life histories are characteristic of certain members of the Phyllophoraceae but were previously unknown in the Dumontiaceae. Japanese P. yoshizakii shared 55 and 56% of organellar DNA bands with P. californica and P. pinnata, respectively phylogenetic analysis indicated equally distant relationships to both species. Pikea yoshizakii or a closely similar species with the same life history occurs in southern California and Mexico.

Meridional mixing of water masses in the Kuroshio Extension: Origins of North Pacific Intermediate Water anomalies

Senior thesis written for Oceanography 445

Anomalous carbonate preservation in the abyssal North Pacific, ODP sites 882 and 1179: planktonic foraminiferal analysis, climate change and palaeogeomagnetism /

Thesis (M.Sc.)--Brock University, 2004.

Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska

The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons. Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variables—genesis, intensity, track density—exhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a north–south shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the “graveyard” of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

The relationship between the North American summer monsoon, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone in HadAM3

In this study the relationship between the North American monsoon, the Californian sea surface temperature (SST) cold pool, the Rocky Mountains and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated using the Hadley Centre's atmospheric climate model, HadAM3. In 1996 Hoskins hypothesized that heating in the North American monsoon might be important for the maintenance of the summertime North Pacific subtropical anticyclone, since the monsoon heating may induce descent to the north-west of the monsoon in the descending eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone. This descent is further enhanced by radiative cooling and is associated with equatorward surface winds parallel to the western coast of North America. These equatorward winds induce oceanic upwelling of cold water and contribute to the formation of the Californian SST cold pool, which may feed back on the anticyclone by further suppressing convection and inducing descent. More recently, Rodwell and Hoskins also investigated the global summer monsoon–subtropical anticyclone relationship. They examined the role that mountains play in impeding the progress of the low-level mid-latitude westerlies, either deflecting the westerlies northwards where they ascend along the sloping mid-latitude isentropes or deflecting them southwards forcing them to descend along the isentropes. In particular, the introduction of the Rockies into a primitive-equation model adiabatically induces descent in the eastern descending flank of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone. These hypothesized mechanisms have been investigated using HadAM3, focusing on the possible suppression of convection by the Californian SST cold pool, the response of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone to the strength of the North American monsoon and the ‘blocking’ of the mid-latitude westerlies by the Rocky Mountains. The role of the Rockies is examined by integrating the model with modified orography for the Rocky Mountains. Changing the height of the Rockies alters the circulation in a way consistent with the mechanism outlined above. Higher Rocky mountains force the westerlies southwards, inducing descent in the eastern flank of the subtropical anticyclone as the air descends along the sloping isentropes. The relationship between the North American monsoon and the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone is investigated by suppressing the monsoon in HadAM3. The suppression of the monsoon is accomplished by increasing the surface albedo over Mexico, which induces anomalous ascent on the eastward flank of the subtropical anticyclone and anomalous polewards surface winds along the western coast of the North American continent, also providing support for the above hypothesis. The removal of the Californian SST cold pool, however, has a statistically insignificant effect on the model, suggesting that in this model the feedback of the SST cold pool on the eastern flank of the anticyclone is weak.

The coupled model predictability of the Western North Pacific summer monsoon with different leading times

Leading time length is an important issue for modeling seasonal forecasts. In this study, a comparison of the interannual predictability of the Western North Pacific (WNP) summer monsoon between different leading months was performed by using one-, four-, and seven-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of four coupled models from Ensembles-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES) for the period of 1960-2005. It is found that the WNP summer anomalies, including lower-tropospheric circulation and precipitation anomalies, can be well predicted for all these leading months. The accuracy of the four-month lead prediction is only slightly weaker than that of the one-month lead prediction, although the skill decreases with the increase of leading months.

The relationship between El Niño and the western North Pacific summer climate in a coupled GCM: role of the transition of El Niño decaying phases

This study investigates the impacts of the transition of El Niño decaying phases on the western North Pacific anticyclone (WNPAC) anomalies in the subsequent summer with a coupled GCM. The modeling results suggest that the El Niños with short decaying phases lead to significant WNPAC anomalies in the following summer, which are contributed to mainly by the El Niños followed by La Niñas, in comparison with those not followed by La Niñas. In contrast, the long decaying cases are associated with the disappearance of WNPAC anomalies in the summer. These differences in the WNP circulation anomalies can be explained by the different configurations of simultaneous SSTs in the Indian Ocean and in the central and eastern tropical Pacific: positive SSTs in the former region and negative ones in the latter region constructively induce significant WNPAC anomalies for the short decaying cases, while the roles of positive SSTs in both regions for the long decaying cases work destructively and lead to weak WNP circulation anomalies. Further analysis indicates that the different lengths of El Niño decaying phases are predicted by the strength of Indian Ocean SSTs in the mature winter. The warmer wintertime Indian Ocean SSTs favor the anomalous easterly wind over the western and central equatorial Pacific in the subsequent summer, leading to a short decaying of El Niño. Thus, the strength of wintertime Indian Ocean SSTs is one of the important factors that affect the length of El Niño decaying phase and resultant WNPAC anomalies in the following summer.

Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate associated with different ENSO phases by ENSEMBLES multi-model seasonal forecasts

Predictability of the western North Pacific (WNP) summer climate associated with different El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases is investigated in this study based on the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES. During the period from 1960 to 2005, the models well capture the WNP summer climate anomalies during most of years in different ENSO phases except the La Niña decaying summers. In the El Niño developing, El Niño decaying and La Niña developing summers, the prediction skills are high for the WNP summer monsoon index (WNPMI), with the prediction correlation larger than 0.7. The high prediction skills of the lower-tropospheric circulation during these phases are found mainly over the tropical western Pacific Ocean, South China Sea and subtropical WNP. These good predictions correspond well to their close teleconnection with ENSO and the high prediction skills of tropical SSTs. By contrast, for the La Niña decaying summers, the prediction skills are considerably low with the prediction correlation for the WNPMI near to zero and low prediction skills around the Philippines and subtropical WNP. These poor predictions relate to the weak summer anomalies of the WNPMI during the La Niña decaying years and no significant connections between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation anomalies and the SSTs over the tropical central and eastern Pacific Ocean in observations. However, the models tend to predict an apparent anomalous cyclone over the WNP during the La Niña decaying years, indicating a linearity of the circulation response over WNP in the models prediction in comparison with that during the El Niño decaying years which differs from observations. In addition, the models show considerable capability in describing the WNP summer anomalies during the ENSO neutral summers. These anomalies are related to the positive feedback between the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation and the local SSTs. The models can capture this positive feedback but with some uncertainties from different ensemble members during the ENSO neutral summers.