Separating ITCZ- and ENSO-related rainfall changes in the Galápagos over the last 3 kyr using D/H ratios of multiple lipid biomarkers

We present a 3000-yr rainfall reconstruction from the Galápagos Islands that is based on paired biomarker records from the sediment of El Junco Lake. Located in the eastern equatorial Pacific, the climate of the Galápagos Islands is governed by movements of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). We use a novel method for reconstructing past ENSO- and ITCZ-related rainfall changes through analysis of molecular and isotopic biomarker records representing several types of plants and algae that grow under differing climatic conditions. We propose that ?D values of dinosterol, a sterol produced by dinoflagellates, record changes in mean rainfall in El Junco Lake, while dD values of C34 botryococcene, a hydrocarbon unique to the green alga Botryococcus braunii, record changes in rainfall associated with moderate-to-strong El Niño events. We use these proxies to infer changes in mean rainfall and El Niño-related rainfall over the past 3000 yr. During periods in which the inferred change in El Niño-related rainfall opposed the change in mean rainfall, we infer changes in the amount of ITCZ-related rainfall. Simulations with an idealized isotope hydrology model of El Junco Lake help illustrate the interpretation of these proxy reconstructions. Opposing changes in El Niño- and ITCZ-related rainfall appear to account for several of the largest inferred hydrologic changes in El Junco Lake. We propose that these reconstructions can be used to infer changes in frequency and/or intensity of El Niño events and changes in the position of the ITCZ in the eastern equatorial Pacific over the past 3000 yr. Comparison with El Junco Lake sediment grain size records indicates general agreement of inferred rainfall changes over the late Holocene.

A high-resolution multiproxy study of sediment core GeoB7186-3 from SE Pacific off southern South America

A high-resolution multiproxy study performed on a marine record from SE Pacific off southern South America was used to reconstruct past regional environmental changes and their relation to global climate, particularly to El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon during the last 2200 years. Our results suggest a sustained northward shift in the position of the zonal systems, i.e. the Southern Westerly Wind belt and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, which occurred between 1300 and 750 yr BP. The synchrony of the latitudinal shift with cooling in Antarctica and reduced ENSO activity observed in several marine and terrestrial archives across South America suggests a causal link between ENSO and the proposed displacement of the zonal systems. This shift might have acted as a positive feedback to more La Niña-like conditions between 1300 and 750 yr BP by steepening the hemispheric and tropical Pacific zonal sea surface temperature gradient. This scenario further suggests different boundary conditions for ENSO before 1300 and after 750 yr BP.

Sea surface temperature oscillations in southern Okinawa Trough during last 2700 years from ODP Hole 195-1202B

Most of the temperature reconstructions for the past two millennia are based on proxy data from various sites on land. Here we present a bidecadal resolution record of sea surface temperature (SST) in Southern Okinawa Trough for the past ca. 2700 years by analyzing tetraether lipids of planktonic archaea in the ODP Hole 1202B, a site under the strong influence of Kuroshio Current and East Asian monsoon. The reconstructed SST anomalies generally coincided with previously reported late Holocene climate events, including the Roman Warm Period, Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period, Medieval Warm Period, Current Warm Period, Dark Age Cold Period and Little Ice Age. However, the Medieval Warm Period usually thought to be a historical analogue for the Current Warm Period has a mean SST of 0.6-0.8°C lower than that of the Roman Warm Period and Sui-Tang dynasty Warm Period. Despite an increase since 1850 AD, the mean SST in the 20th century is still within the range of natural variability during the past 2700 years. A close correlation of SST in Southern Okinawa Trough with air temperature in East China, intensity of East Asian monsoon and the El-Niño Southern Oscillation index has been attributed to the fluctuations in solar output and oceanic-atmospheric circulation.

Equatorial Pacific Ocean climate studies (EPOCS) : progress and plans.

"October 1985".

(Table S2) The reconstructed sea surface temperature (SST) over the eastern equatorial Pacific

Abundant hydroclimatic evidence from western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes documents wet conditions during Heinrich Stadial 1 (HS1, 18-15 ka), a cold period in the high latitudes of the North Atlantic. This precipitation anomaly was attributed to a strengthening of the South American summer monsoon due to a change in the Atlantic interhemispheric sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. However, the physical viability of this mechanism has never been rigorously tested. We address this issue by combining a thorough compilation of tropical South American paleorecords and a set of atmosphere model sensitivity experiments. Our results show that the Atlantic SST variations alone, although leading to dry conditions in northern South America and wet conditions in northeastern Brazil, cannot produce increased precipitation over western Amazonia and the adjacent Andes during HS1. Instead, an eastern equatorial Pacific SST increase (i.e., 0.5-1.5 °C), in response to the slowdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation during HS1, is crucial to generate the wet conditions in these regions. The mechanism works via anomalous low sea level pressure over the eastern equatorial Pacific, which promotes a regional easterly low-level wind anomaly and moisture recycling from central Amazonia towards the Andes.

Risk attitude, planting conditions and the value of seasonal forecasts to a dryland wheat grower

The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

Spatial-temporal analyses of climate elements, vegetation characteristics and sea surface temperature anomaly. A Case study in Gojam, Ethiopia

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

On the influences of the El Niño, La niña and Atlantic Dipole Paterni on the Amazonian Rainfall during 1960-1998

The influence of the large-scale climatic variability dominant modes in the Pacific and in the Atlantic on Amazonian rainfall is investigated. The composite technique of the Amazon precipitation anomalies is used in this work. The basis years for these composites arc those in the period 1960-1998 with occurrences of extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and the north/south warm (or cold) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies dipole pattern in the tropical Atlantic. Warm (cold) dipole means positive (negative) anomalies in the tropical North Atlantic and negative (positive) anomalies in the tropical South Atlantic. Austral summer and autumn composites for extremes in the Southern Oscillation (El Niño or La Niña) and independently for north/south dipole pattern (warm or cold) of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic present values (magnitude and sign) consistent with those found in previous works on the relationship between Amazon rainfall variations and the SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific and Atlantic. However, austral summer and autumn composites for the years with simultaneous occurrences of El Niño and warm north/south dipole of the SST anomalies in the tropical Atlantic show negative precipitation anomalies extending eastward over the center-eastern Amazon. This result indicates the important role played by the tropical Atlantic in the Amazon anomalous rainfall distribution.

INFLUENCIA DE LAS VARIACIONES ECOLÒGICAS Y AMBIENTALES EN LA EMERGENCIA DE FLAVIVIRUS DE IMPORTANCIA SANITARIA EN LA CIUDAD DE CÓRDOBA

El VSLE, desde el año 2002, reemergió como agente etiológico de encefalitis en humanos en América del Sur, generando casos aislados en Argentina. Córdoba sufrió recientemente la introducción de los virus Dengue y VWN y la emergencia del virus SLE como patógeno causante de encefalitis en humanosel cual sorpresivamente, en el verano-otoño de 2005, produjo por primera vez una epidemia de encefalitis en humanos en Córdoba ciudad, inédita para América del sur. Nuestros estudios permitieron conocer que el ciclo de transmisión estaría integrado por mosquitos Cx quinquefasciatus y Cx. interfor y palomas Zenaida auriculata y Columbina picui.Sobre VWN, estrechamente relacionado a VSLE, los primeros antecedentes de actividad en Argentina son del año 2006. Sin embargo, en poblaciones silvestres de aves, confirmamos por seroprevalencia su actividad desde fines del año 2004. Desconocemos el ciclo del VWN en Argentina, aunque, demostramos preliminarmente que Columbina picui actuaría como hospedador en el ciclo de mantenimiento del virus. Estos resultados similares a los obtenidos para el VSLE indicarían que ambos virus podrían compartir hospedadores aviares en Argentina.Las escasas notificaciones sobre WNV en humanos en el país,muestran registros de casos de encefalitis por este virus en las provincias de Chaco, Córdoba y Entre Ríos en 2006 y en Córdoba, Formosa, y Santa Fe en 2007.En referencia a virus Dengue, en el año 1997 ocurrieron los primeros casos autóctonos de esta enfermedad ( Degue 2), en la provincia de Salta, con un total acumulado de casos hasta el 2007 de 4700. En la epidemia ocurrida recientemente en el 2009 el número de casos confirmados por laboratorio y/o nexo epidemiológico superó los 25.000.El virus DEN, junto con los virus SLE y WN co-circulan en tiempo y espacio en las regiones centrales y norte de nuestro país, generando complicaciones a la hora del diagnóstico de casos febriles.Los factores que provocaron la re-emergencia del VSLE y emergencia de los virus DEN y WN en la región central de Argentina se desconocen al presente. La variabilidad climática ligada a ENSO ( El NIño / Southern oscillation) ha demostrado incrementar las enfermedades de transmisión vectorial tales como encefalitis por Murray Valley, malaria, bluuetongue .Considerando que el cambio en las condiciones climáticas y el uso de la tierra observadas en la ciudad de Córdoba y zona rural del arco sur de la laguna de Mar Chiquita podrían influir en la actividad espacio-temporal de los virus DEN, SLE y WN, el objetivo de proyecto es determinar la influencia de las variaciones climáticas y modificaciones ambientales sobre la actividad de flavivirus de importancia sanitaria en las zonas seleccionadas de la provincia de Córdoba. Se generará una Base de Datos obtenidos sobre mosquitos ,aves y metereológicos retrospectivos y prospectivos que serán sometidos A Diversos Análisis Estadísticos. Se desarrollará y aplicará un SIG Para El Estudio De La Influencia De Modificaciones Ambientales Y Climáticas Sobre La Emergencia De Flavivirus. Se Realizarán Inoculaciones Experimentales En Aves Domésticas Y Silvestres A Fin De Evaluar Su Rol Como Hospedadores. Se Realizarán Estudios Experimentales De competencia Vectorial De Aedes Aegypti, Culex Interfor Y Cx. Quinquefasciatus.Se estudiaran factores ambientales y ecológicos de criaderos de Cx quinquefasciatus En La Ciudad De Córdoba Que Afectan Sus Dinámicas Poblacionales Y Factibles De Ser Aplicados En El Diseño De Planes De Vigilancia De Los Virus Sle Y Wn Y Control De Vectores.Así También Se Desarrollarará Un Modelo Para Predecir Posibles CriadeMediante El Uso De Sensores Remotos Satelitales Se Estudiaran Las Fluctuaciónes Espacio-Temporal De Ae. Aegypti.El proyecto brindará la información necesaria para analizar el rol de las variaciones por el cambio climático que sufre la región en la emergencia de enfermedades virales endémicas de transmisión vectorial.

Metazoan Parasite Infracommunities in Five Sciaenids from the Central Peruvian Coast

Parasitological analysis of 237 Menticirrhus ophicephalus, 124 Paralonchurus peruanus, 249 Sciaena deliciosa, 50 Sciaena fasciata and 308 Stellifer minor from Callao (Perú) yielded 37 species of metazoan parasites (14 Monogenea, 11 Copepoda, 4 Nematoda, 3 Acanthocephala, 1 Digenea, 1 Aspidobothrea, 1 Eucestoda, 1 Isopoda and 1 Hirudinea). Only one species, the copepoda Bomolochus peruensis, was common to all five hosts. The majority of the components of the infracommunities analyzed are ectoparasites. The Brillouin index (H) and evenness (J´) were applied to the fully sampled metazoan parasite infracommunities. High values of prevalence and mean abundance of infection are associated to the polyonchoinean monogeneans; the low values of J' reinforce the strong dominance of this group in the studied communities. The paucity of the endoparasite fauna may be a consequence of the unstable environment due to an upwelling system, aperiodically affected by the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena.

Variability of North Atlantic hurricanes: seasonal versus individual-event features

Tropical cyclones are affected by a large number of climatic factors, which translates into complex patterns of occurrence. The variability of annual metrics of tropical-cyclone activity has been intensively studied, in particular since the sudden activation of the North Atlantic in the mid 1990’s. We provide first a swift overview on previous work by diverse authors about these annual metrics for the North-Atlantic basin, where the natural variability of the phenomenon, the existence of trends, the drawbacks of the records, and the influence of global warming have been the subject of interesting debates. Next, we present an alternative approach that does not focus on seasonal features but on the characteristics of single events [Corral et al., Nature Phys. 6, 693 (2010)]. It is argued that the individual-storm power dissipation index (PDI) constitutes a natural way to describe each event, and further, that the PDI statistics yields a robust law for the occurrence of tropical cyclones in terms of a power law. In this context, methods of fitting these distributions are discussed. As an important extension to this work we introduce a distribution function that models the whole range of the PDI density (excluding incompleteness effects at the smallest values), the gamma distribution, consisting in a powerlaw with an exponential decay at the tail. The characteristic scale of this decay, represented by the cutoff parameter, provides very valuable information on the finiteness size of the basin, via the largest values of the PDIs that the basin can sustain. We use the gamma fit to evaluate the influence of sea surface temperature (SST) on the occurrence of extreme PDI values, for which we find an increase around 50 % in the values of these basin-wide events for a 0.49 C SST average difference. Similar findings are observed for the effects of the positive phase of the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and the number of hurricanes in a season on the PDI distribution. In the case of the El Niño Southern oscillation (ENSO), positive and negative values of the multivariate ENSO index do not have a significant effect on the PDI distribution; however, when only extreme values of the index are used, it is found that the presence of El Niño decreases the PDI of the most extreme hurricanes.

Biogeochemical processes controlling oxygen and carbon isotopes of diatom silica in Late Glacial to Holocene lacustrine rhythmites

Biogeochemical cycles and sedimentary records in lakes are related to climate controls on hydrology and catchment processes. Changes in the isotopic imposition of the diatom frustules (δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom ) in lacustrine sediments can be used to reconstruct palaeoclimatic and palaeoenvironmental changes. The Lago Chungará (Andean Altiplano, 18°15 ′ S, 69°10 ′ W, 4520 masl) diatomaceous laminated sediments are made up of white and green multiannual rhythmites. White laminae were formed during short-term diatom super-blooms, and are composed almost exclusively of large-sized Cyclostephanos andinus.These diatoms bloom during mixing events when recycled nutrients from the bottom waters are brought to the surface and/or when nutrients are introduced from the catchment during periods of strong runoff. Conversely, the green laminae are thought to have been deposited over several years and are composed of a mixture of diatoms (mainly smaller valves of C. andinus and Discostella stelligera ) and organic matter. These green laminae reflect the lake's hydrological recovery from a status favouring the diatom super-blooms (white laminae) towards baseline conditions. δ 18 O diatom and δ 13 C diatom from 11,990 to 11,530 cal years BP allow us to reconstruct shifts in the precipitation/evaporation ratio and changes in the lake water dissolved carbon concentration, respectively. δ 18 O diatom values indicate that white laminae formation occurred mainly during low lake level stages, whereas green laminae formation generally occurred during high lake level stages. The isotope and chronostratigraphical data together suggest that white laminae deposition is caused by extraordinary environmental events. El Niño-Southern Oscillation and changes in solar activity are the most likely climate forcing mechanisms that could trigger such events, favouring hydrological changes at interannual-to-decadal scale. This study demonstrates the potential for laminated lake sediments to document extreme pluriannual events.

The role of mean ocean salinity in climate

We describe numerical simulations designed to elucidate the role of mean ocean salinity in climate. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, we study a 100-year sensitivity experiment in which the global-mean salinity is approximately doubled from its present observed value, by adding 35 psu everywhere in the ocean. The salinity increase produces a rapid global-mean sea-surface warming of C within a few years, caused by reduced vertical mixing associated with changes in cabbeling. The warming is followed by a gradual global-mean sea-surface cooling of C within a few decades, caused by an increase in the vertical (downward) component of the isopycnal diffusive heat flux. We find no evidence of impacts on the variability of the thermohaline circulation (THC) or El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The mean strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning is reduced by 20% and the North Atlantic Deep Water penetrates less deeply. Nevertheless, our results dispute claims that higher salinities for the world ocean have profound consequences for the thermohaline circulation. In additional experiments with doubled atmospheric carbon dioxide, we find that the amplitude and spatial pattern of the global warming signal are modified in the hypersaline ocean. In particular, the equilibrated global-mean sea-surface temperature increase caused by doubling carbon dioxide is reduced by 10%. We infer the existence of a non-linear interaction between the climate responses to modified carbon dioxide and modified salinity.

A new set of orthogonal patterns in weather and climate: Optimally interpolated patterns.

A new spectral-based approach is presented to find orthogonal patterns from gridded weather/climate data. The method is based on optimizing the interpolation error variance. The optimally interpolated patterns (OIP) are then given by the eigenvectors of the interpolation error covariance matrix, obtained using the cross-spectral matrix. The formulation of the approach is presented, and the application to low-dimension stochastic toy models and to various reanalyses datasets is performed. In particular, it is found that the lowest-frequency patterns correspond to largest eigenvalues, that is, variances, of the interpolation error matrix. The approach has been applied to the Northern Hemispheric (NH) and tropical sea level pressure (SLP) and to the Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST). Two main OIP patterns are found for the NH SLP representing respectively the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific pattern. The leading tropical SLP OIP represents the Southern Oscillation. For the Indian Ocean SST, the leading OIP pattern shows a tripole-like structure having one sign over the eastern and north- and southwestern parts and an opposite sign in the remaining parts of the basin. The pattern is also found to have a high lagged correlation with the Niño-3 index with 6-months lag.