'It ain't over till it's over' : Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets

The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

Jackknife for bias reduction in predictive regressions

One of the fundamental econometric models in finance is predictive regression. The standard least squares method produces biased coefficient estimates when the regressor is persistent and its innovations are correlated with those of the dependent variable. This article proposes a general and convenient method based on the jackknife technique to tackle the estimation problem. The proposed method reduces the bias for both single- and multiple-regressor models and for both short- and long-horizon regressions. The effectiveness of the proposed method is demonstrated by simulations. An empirical application to equity premium prediction using the dividend yield and the short rate highlights the differences between the results by the standard approach and those by the bias-reduced estimator. The significant predictive variables under the ordinary least squares become insignificant after adjusting for the finite-sample bias. These discrepancies suggest that bias reduction in predictive regressions is important in practical applications.

The digital transformation of 21st century news journalism

This presentation will deal with the transformations that have occurred in news journalism worldwide in the early 21st century. I will argue that they have been the most significant changes to the profession for 100 years, and the challenges facing the news media industry in responding to them are substantial, as are those facing journalism education. It will develop this argument in relation to the crisis of the newspaper business model, and why social media, blogging and citizen journalism have not filled the gap left by the withdrawal of resources from traditional journalism. It will also draw upon Wikileaks as a case study in debates about computational and data-driven journalism, and whether large-scale "leaks" of electronic documents may be the future of investigative journalism.

The 'new' news

This themed issue of Media International Australia brings together a collection of work that critically examines some of the rapid changes to the news media system in recent years, including an explosion of news sources, formats and increasingly popular hybrid styles and the collapse in the authority of the trusted news sources of the past. Much news is now broken by social media, and journalists compete in a cycle of news and politics that has been dramatically influenced and sped up by 24-hour news channels. The role of journalists has changed, and they increasingly are being called up on to interpret and explain events rather than simply report them.

Experimental observations of rapid maize streak virus evolution reveal a strand-specific nucleotide substitution bias

Background. Recent reports have indicated that single-stranded DNA (ssDNA) viruses in the taxonomic families Geminiviridae, Parvoviridae and Anellovirus may be evolving at rates of ∼10-4 substitutions per site per year (subs/site/year). These evolution rates are similar to those of RNA viruses and are surprisingly high given that ssDNA virus replication involves host DNA polymerases with fidelities approximately 10 000 times greater than those of error-prone viral RNA polymerases. Although high ssDNA virus evolution rates were first suggested in evolution experiments involving the geminivirus maize streak virus (MSV), the evolution rate of this virus has never been accurately measured. Also, questions regarding both the mechanistic basis and adaptive value of high geminivirus mutation rates remain unanswered. Results. We determined the short-term evolution rate of MSV using full genome analysis of virus populations initiated from cloned genomes. Three wild type viruses and three defective artificial chimaeric viruses were maintained in planta for up to five years and displayed evolution rates of between 7.4 × 10-4 and 7.9 × 10-4 subs/site/year. Conclusion. These MSV evolution rates are within the ranges observed for other ssDNA viruses and RNA viruses. Although no obvious evidence of positive selection was detected, the uneven distribution of mutations within the defective virus genomes suggests that some of the changes may have been adaptive. We also observed inter-strand nucleotide substitution imbalances that are consistent with a recent proposal that high mutation rates in geminiviruses (and possibly ssDNA viruses in general) may be due to mutagenic processes acting specifically on ssDNA molecules. © 2008 Walt et al; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Seeking inclusion : views from ‘vulnerable’ communities about reporting by the Australian news media

This conference paper reports on the findings of the 'Vulnerability and the News Media’ project about news reporting on communities that are commonly regarded as ‘vulnerable’ by virtue of their issues or circumstances. The project focuses on news reporting of Indigenous and ethnically diverse communities, as well as people affected by mental health issues, people with disabilities, and survivors of crime and traumatic events. Numerous educational initiatives have tried to improve the quality of media reports about these communities and their issues. Despite this, the project’s research with stakeholders from those communities has found that they continue to raise the same concerns that have been expressed about the news media since the 1970s. In focus group research, stakeholders from these communities expressed concern about their continuing under-representation or omission from the news media. They felt that voices, experiences, perspectives and issues from their communities rarely appeared, or if they did appear, it was in limited contexts – often in circumstances that portrayed them as vulnerable or disruptive. They also pointed to ongoing media misrepresentation, such as stereotyping, inappropriate framing, and over-reliance on ‘usual suspects’ to talk about their communities. A common theme that they voiced was their need for greater inclusiveness in the media. Participants wished that journalists would better represent the diversity of life experiences and perspectives within their communities. Stakeholders also wanted an increased in representation of their political frameworks, such as stories about the difficulties they encountered in dealing with social and bureaucratic systems, and their understandings of causes and potential solutions for issues affecting their communities.

News media representations of homelessness : do economic news production pressures prevent journalists from adequately reporting complex social issues

This study used both content and frame analyses to test news-media representations of homelessness in The Courier-Mail newspaper for evidence of restricted journalism practice. Specifically, it sought signs of either direct manipulation of issue representation based on ideological grounds, and also evidence of news organisations prioritising low-cost news production over Public Sphere journalistic news values. The study found that news stories from the earlier parts of the longitudinal study showed stereotypical misrepresentations of homelessness for public deliberation which might be attributed to either, or both of the nominated restricting factors. However news stories from the latter part of the study saw a distinct change in the way the issue was represented, indicating a journalistic capacity to thoughtfully and sensitively represent a complex social issue to the public. Further study is recommended to ascertain how and why this change occurred, so that journalistic practice might be further improved.

Narratives of the 'everyday' in Rio de Janeiro's favelas : community photographers' attempts at generating alternative news values [Narrativas do cotidiano nas favelas do Rio de Janeiro: tentativas de construção de valores-notícia alternativos pelos fotógrafos populares]

Abstract This paper presents the partial results of an ongoing research project which investigates ethnographically community (photo)journalism media initiatives, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The Viva Rio and Observatorio de Favelas (NGOs) run projects that provide favela residents with skills to take, edit and print their own (photo) journalism contents that enables community-based framing and documentation of favela live, personalities and issues. Three months of fieldwork related to these projects in Rio's favelas generated remarkable theoretical issues that represent the community photographers' attempt to establish counter news values by shifting the focus from poverty, shortages, violence and criminality to images of the ordinary life which included the myriad events that occurs in the day of the favelas. Resumo Este artigo apresenta os resultados parciais de uma pesquisa em andamento que, a partir do método etnográfico, investiga os projetos de comunicação comunitária, jornalismo e fotojornalismo, no Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. As organizações não-governamentais (ONGs) Viva Rio e Observatório de Favela apoiam projetos que objetivam tornar moradores de favelas capazes de produzir, editar e publicar as suas próprias narrativas sobre personagens e questões do cotidiano de suas comunidades. O trabalho de campo sobre estes projetos, realizado durante três meses nas favelas do Rio de Janeiro, forneceu questões teóricas relevantes que representam o esforço dos fotógrafos populares para estabelecer contra valores-notícia transferindo o foco da pobreza, escassez, violência e criminalidade para imagens do cotidiano que inclui uma miríade de eventos que acontecem no dia-a-dia das favelas.

Gender bias in schooling : the case for Bhutan

Differing parental considerations for girls and boys in households are a primary cause of the gender gap in school enrolment and educational attainment in developing countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. While a number of studies have focused on the inequality of educational opportunities in South Asia, little is known about Bhutan. This study uses recent household expenditure data from the Bhutan Living Standard Survey to evaluate the gender gap in the allocation of resources for schooling. The findings, based on cross-sectional as well as household fixed-effect approaches, suggest that girls are less likely to enrol in school but are not allocated fewer resources once they are enrolled.

Narratives of the 'everyday' in Rio de Janeiro's favelas : the construction of alternative news values by community photographers [Narrativas do cotidiano nas favelas cariocas: a problematizacao dos valores-noticia pelos fotografos populares]

Resumo: Esse artigo apresenta os resultados parciais de uma pesquisa em andamento que, a partir do método etnográfico, investiga os projetos de comunicação comunitária, jornalismo e fotojornalismo desenvolvidos por duas organizações não-governamentais na cidade do Rio de Janeiro. O trabalho de campo, realizado durante três meses nas favelas cariocas, forneceu questões teóricas relevantes para os estudos do jornalismo, destacando-se as problematizações sobre a noção de valores-notícia. Voltados para a produção de narrativas centradas no cotidiano das comunidades, os fotojornalistas populares consideram fundamental discutir os valores-notícia formulados pela grande imprensa e propor “contra-valores”.

Assessment bias : physical activity questionnaire assessment inadvertently influences patients’ desire to be ‘more physically active’

Evaluating physical activity is important for public health population research and evaluating lifestyle interventions among targeted groups. Self-reported questionnaires are frequently used to evaluate physical activity in a variety of contexts where resource or pragmatic limitations prohibit the use of more sophisticated approaches. However, prior research in the use of other patient reported outcomes in healthcare settings has highlighted that simply completing a questionnaire may change a patients’ behaviour or responses to subsequent questions. This methodology study aimed to examine whether completing a standard physical activity questionnaire altered patients responses to two related questions a) whether they are ‘sufficiently physically active’ and b) whether they desire ‘to be more physically active.’

A known-groups evaluation of the Response Bias Scale in a neuropsychological setting

We evaluated the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-Second Edition (MMPI-2) Response Bias Scale (RBS). Archival data from 83 individuals who were referred for neuropsychological assessment with no formal diagnosis (n = 10), following a known or suspected traumatic brain injury (n = 36), with a psychiatric diagnosis (n = 20), or with a history of both trauma and a psychiatric condition (n = 17) were retrieved. The criteria for malingered neurocognitive dysfunction (MNCD) were applied, and two groups of participants were formed: poor effort (n = 15) and genuine responders (n = 68). Consistent with previous studies, the difference in scores between groups was greatest for the RBS (d = 2.44), followed by two established MMPI-2 validity scales, F (d = 0.25) and K (d = 0.23), and strong significant correlations were found between RBS and F (rs = .48) and RBS and K (r = −.41). When MNCD group membership was predicted using logistic regression, the RBS failed to add incrementally to F. In a separate regression to predict group membership, K added significantly to the RBS. Receiver-operating curve analysis revealed a nonsignificant area under the curve statistic, and at the ideal cutoff in this sample of >12, specificity was moderate (.79), sensitivity was low (.47), and positive and negative predictive power values at a 13% base rate were .25 and .91, respectively. Although the results of this study require replication because of a number of limitations, this study has made an important first attempt to report RBS classification accuracy statistics for predicting poor effort at a range of base rates.

Talking it through : the case for the use of conversation analytic approaches in the analysis of news journalism

This study makes out the case for the use of the Conversational Analytic method as a research approach that might both extricate and chronicle the features of the journalism interview. It seeks to encourage such research to help inform understanding of this form and to provide further lessons as to the nature of journalism practice. Such studies might follow many paths but this paper focuses more particularly on the outcomes for the debate as to the continued relevance of "objectivity" in informing journalism professional practice. To make out the case for the veracity of CA as a means through which the conduct of journalism practice might be explored the paper examines: the theories of the interaction order that gave rise to the CA method; outlines the key features of the journalism interview as explicated through the CA approach; outlines the implications of such research for the establishment of the standing of "objectivity". It concludes as to the wider relevance of such studies of journalism practice for a fracturing journalism field, which suffers from a lack of benchmarks to measure the public benefit of the range of forms that now proliferate on the internet.

Regulating journalists? The Finkelstein Review, the Convergence Review, and News Media Regulation in Australia

This paper identifies two major forces driving change in media policy worldwide: media convergence, and renewed concerns about media ethics, with the latter seen in the U.K. Leveson Inquiry. It focuses on two major public inquiries in Australia during 2011-2012 – the Independent Media Inquiry (Finkelstein Review) and the Convergence Review – and the issues raised about future regulation of journalism and news standards. Drawing upon perspectives from media theory, it observes the strong influence of social responsibility theories of the media in the Finkelstein Review, and the adverse reaction these received from those arguing from Fourth Estate/free press perspectives, which were also consistent with the longstanding opposition of Australian newspaper proprietors to government regulation. It also discusses the approaches taken in the Convergence Review to regulating for news standards, in light of the complexities arising from media convergence. The paper concludes with consideration of the fast-changing environment in which such proposals to transform media regulation are being considered, including the crisis of news media organisation business models, as seen in Australia with major layoffs of journalists from the leading print media publications.