Impact of the modal aerosol scheme GLOMAP-mode on aerosol forcing in the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model

The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM) includes two aerosol schemes: the Coupled Large-scale Aerosol Simulator for Studies in Climate (CLASSIC), and the new Global Model of Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP-mode). GLOMAP-mode is a modal aerosol microphysics scheme that simulates not only aerosol mass but also aerosol number, represents internally-mixed particles, and includes aerosol microphysical processes such as nucleation. In this study, both schemes provide hindcast simulations of natural and anthropogenic aerosol species for the period 2000–2006. HadGEM simulations of the aerosol optical depth using GLOMAP-mode compare better than CLASSIC against a data-assimilated aerosol re-analysis and aerosol ground-based observations. Because of differences in wet deposition rates, GLOMAP-mode sulphate aerosol residence time is two days longer than CLASSIC sulphate aerosols, whereas black carbon residence time is much shorter. As a result, CLASSIC underestimates aerosol optical depths in continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere and likely overestimates absorption in remote regions. Aerosol direct and first indirect radiative forcings are computed from simulations of aerosols with emissions for the year 1850 and 2000. In 1850, GLOMAP-mode predicts lower aerosol optical depths and higher cloud droplet number concentrations than CLASSIC. Consequently, simulated clouds are much less susceptible to natural and anthropogenic aerosol changes when the microphysical scheme is used. In particular, the response of cloud condensation nuclei to an increase in dimethyl sulphide emissions becomes a factor of four smaller. The combined effect of different 1850 baselines, residence times, and abilities to affect cloud droplet number, leads to substantial differences in the aerosol forcings simulated by the two schemes. GLOMAP-mode finds a presentday direct aerosol forcing of −0.49Wm−2 on a global average, 72% stronger than the corresponding forcing from CLASSIC. This difference is compensated by changes in first indirect aerosol forcing: the forcing of −1.17Wm−2 obtained with GLOMAP-mode is 20% weaker than with CLASSIC. Results suggest that mass-based schemes such as CLASSIC lack the necessary sophistication to provide realistic input to aerosol-cloud interaction schemes. Furthermore, the importance of the 1850 baseline highlights how model skill in predicting present-day aerosol does not guarantee reliable forcing estimates. Those findings suggest that the more complex representation of aerosol processes in microphysical schemes improves the fidelity of simulated aerosol forcings.

Palaeovegetation in China during the late Quaternary: Biome reconstructions based on a global scheme of plant functional types

Two previous reconstructions of palaeovegetation across the whole of China were performed using a simple classification of plant functional types (PFTs). Now a more explicit, global PFT classification scheme has been developed, and a substantial number of additional pollen records have become available. Here we apply the global scheme of PFTs to a comprehensive set of pollen records available from China to test the applicability of the global scheme of PFTs in China, and to obtain a well-founded reconstruction of changing palaeovegetation patterns. A total of 806 pollen surface samples, 188 mid-Holocene (MH, 6000 14C yr BP) and 50 last glacial maximum (LGM, 18,000 14C yr BP) pollen records were used to reconstruct vegetation patterns in China, based on a new global classification system of PFTs and a standard numerical technique for biome assignment (biomization). The biome reconstruction based on pollen surface samples showed convincing agreement with present potential natural vegetation. Coherent patterns of change in biome distribution between MH, LGM and present are observed. In the MH, cold and cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forests and mixed forests, temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, and warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were shifted northward by 200–500 km. Cold-deciduous forest in northeastern China was replaced by cold evergreen needleleaf forest while in central northern China, cold-deciduous forest was present at some sites now occupied by temperate grassland and desert. The forest–grassland boundary was 200–300 km west of its present position. Temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert covered a large area on the Tibetan Plateau, but the area of tundra was reduced. Treeline was 300–500 m higher than present in Tibet. These changes imply generally warmer winters, longer growing seasons and more precipitation during the MH. Westward shifts of the forest–shrubland–grassland and grassland–desert boundaries imply greater moisture availability in the MH, consistent with a stronger summer monsoon. During the LGM, in contrast, cold-deciduous forest, cool-temperate evergreen needleleaf forest, cool mixed forests, warm-temperate evergreen broadleaf and mixed forest in eastern China were displaced to the south by 300–1000 km, while temperate deciduous broadleaf forest, pure warm-temperate evergreen forest, tropical semi-evergreen and evergreen broadleaf forests were restricted or absent from the mainland of southern China, implying colder winters than present. Strong shifts of temperate xerophytic shrubland, temperate grassland and desert to the south and east in northern and western China and on the Tibetan Plateau imply drier conditions than present.

National interest to global reform: patterns of reasoning in British foreign policy discourse

Discussion of the national interest often focuses on how Britain's influence can be maximized, rather than on the goals that influence serves. Yet what gives content to claims about the national interest is the means-ends reasoning which links interests to deeper goals. In ideal-typical terms, this can take two forms. The first, and more common, approach is conservative: it infers national interests and the goals they advance from existing policies and commitments. The second is reformist: it starts by specifying national goals and then asks how they are best advanced under particular conditions. New Labour's foreign policy discourse is notable for its explicit use of a reformist approach. Indeed, Gordon Brown's vision of a 'new global society' not only identifies global reform as a key means of fulfilling national goals, but also thereby extends the concept of the national interest well beyond a narrow concern with national security.

A crise do estado nacional na ordem mundial pós Guerra Fria

A pesquisa analisa a crise do Estado Nacional no contexto da ordem mundial pós-guerra fria, enfatizando o fortalecimento de instâncias de poder supranacionais e infranacionais que estão solapando e a autonomia dos Estados. Tais transformações na esfera política estão vinculadas ao processo geral de globalização.

Amarrando as próprias botas do desenvolvimento: a nova economia global e a relevância de um desenho jurídico-institucional nacionalmente adequado

Rodrik, DanI. The new global economy and developing countries: making openness work. Washington: overseas development council, 1999.

Citizens and the future of multilateralism in a polycentric world at 2030: the perspectives of emerging countries for the trading system: the impasse of WTO, the trends of mega agreements, the logic of value chains and the advent of consumers concerns on international trade

A new paradigm is modeling the World: evolutionary innovations in all fronts, new information technologies, huge mobility of capital, use of risky financial tools, globalization of production, new emerging powers and the impact of consumer concerns on governmental policies. These phenomena are shaping the World and forcing the advent of a new World Order in the Multilateral Monetary, Financial, and Trading System. The effects of this new paradigm are also transforming global governance. The political and economic orders established after the World War and centered on the multilateral model of UN, IMF, World Bank, and the GATT, leaded by the developed countries, are facing significant challenges. The rise of China and emerging countries shifted the old model to a polycentric World, where the governance of these organizations are threatened by emerging countries demanding a bigger participation in the role and decision boards of these international bodies. As a consequence, multilateralism is being confronted by polycentrism. Negotiations for a more representative voting process and the pressure for new rules to cope with the new demands are paralyzing important decisions. This scenario is affecting seriously not only the Monetary and Financial Systems but also the Multilateral Trading System. International trade is facing some significant challenges: a serious deadlock to conclude the last round of the multilateral negotiation at the WTO, the fragmentation of trade rules by the multiplication of preferential and mega agreements, the arrival of a new model of global production and trade leaded by global value chains that is threatening the old trade order, and the imposition of new sets of regulations by private bodies commanded by transnationals to support global value chains and non-governmental organizations to reflect the concerns of consumers in the North based on their precautionary attitude about sustainability of products made in the World. The lack of any multilateral order in this new regulation is creating a big cacophony of rules and developing a new regulatory war of the Global North against the Global South. The objective of this paper is to explore how these challenges are affecting the Tradinge System and how it can evolve to manage these new trends.

Política externa no período FHC: a busca de autonomia pela integração

Durante o governo FHC buscou-se substituir a agenda reativa da política externa brasileira, dominada pela lógica da autonomia pela distância, por uma nova agenda internacional proativa, determinada pela lógica da autonomia pela integração. Segundo essa agenda, o país deveria ampliar o poder de controle sobre o seu destino e resolver seus problemas com uma adesão ativa à elaboração das normas e das pautas de conduta da gestão da ordem mundial. No entanto, essa política de integração, adesão e participação não foi plenamente acompanhada de tomadas de posições que implicassem responsabilidades práticas, em virtude de debilidades estruturais. As responsabilidades teriam como função preparar tanto o governo como a sociedade civil para uma inserção internacional de perfil mais elevado no pós-Guerra Fria. Os ganhos ocorridos nos governos FHC não foram suficientes para alterar significativamente o peso brasileiro no contexto mundial.

Globalization and development

Includes bibliography

Trade, investment and fragmentation of the global market: is Latin America lagging behind?

Includes bibliography

Istmo Centroamericano y República Dominicana: desafíos de la crisis global al crecimiento agropecuario

Incluye Bibliografía

Productive development in open economies

Includes bibliography

Repensando a periferia no período popular da história: o uso do território pelo movimento Hip Hop

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

The Panama Canal expansion: A driver of change for global trade flows

Includes bibliography.

Entre o kháos e o kósmos, a demiourgía da excelência: a seleção de pessoal como regulação, normalização e mediação no contexto das novas políticas de gestão de recursos humanos

Pós-graduação em Psicologia - FCLAS

Relações internacionais em cidades amazônicas: atuação e inserção internacional de Belém e Manaus (1997-2012)

No decorrer das últimas décadas, o estudo das Relações Internacionais diversificou sua análise, deixando de ter um enfoque direcionado sobre a atuação dos Estados nacionais e passando a analisar mais atentamente a dinâmica e ascensão de novos atores no cenário internacional, como as entidades subnacionais, incluindo as cidades e os governos locais, gerando um novo foco de análise, principalmente no contexto da cooperação internacional. A presente dissertação analisa por quais razões e de que maneira ocorre a inserção e atuação internacional das cidades amazônicas de Belém e Manaus, tendo como cenário um Mundo globalizado e interdependente. No conjunto desse novo cenário, favorável às relações internacionais, a Cooperação Internacional passa a ser um instrumento latente para o desenvolvimento não somente dos países, mas também das cidades, através da Cooperação Descentralizada; fenômeno político-econômico relativamente recente e que vem adentrando cada vez mais as agendas de desenvolvimento local. As cidades cada vez mais passam a adotar as relações internacionais, tal como estratégias de cooperação descentralizada como uma agenda propulsora e paralela de desenvolvimento, seja na captação de recursos externos,seja no fortalecimento da identidade local, na promoção do comércio exterior ou, até mesmo na disseminação cultural. Belém e Manaus, lócus desta pesquisa, apresentaram ao longo dos anos diversas motivações e formas de efetivarem suas relações internacionais e, para tal análise, adotou-se uma análise fundamentalmente qualitativa, traçando um quadro analíticodescritivo entre as cidades investigadas. O presente trabalho analisa as ações, estratégias, mecanismos e forma institucionalizada ou não de gerir as atividades internacionais das referidas cidades. O cenário global atual é incentivador das interações multiníveis entre velhos e novos atores internacionais, todavia o habitus das relações -internacionais incita cada vez mais a continuidade e o compromisso que os Governos (sejam eles nacionais ou locais) devem ter para corresponder e acompanhar as dinâmicas impostas pela globalização,embora, nem todos os Governos acompanham, possuem ou dedicam estruturas adequadas aos anseios que o novo e interdependente cenário internacional exige.