Anàlisi econòmica en un establiment hoteler per a la presa de decisions: Aplicació pràctica en el cas de l’hotel Empòrium

Treball de final de carrera amb l’objectiu d’establir unes decisions estratègiques en una empresa hotelera a través de l’anàlisi econòmica aplicant un model de determinació de costos anomenat direct costing. Es proposa una eina estratègica que permeti a cada empresa obtenir una informació el màxim de real sobre les diferents variables econòmiques que afecten a la seva activitat per poder prendre decisions a curt termini i obtenir una màxima rendibilitat

Malaria diagnosis from pooled blood samples: comparative analysis of real-time PCR, nested PCR and immunoassay as a platform for the molecular and serological diagnosis of malaria on a large-scale

Malaria diagnoses has traditionally been made using thick blood smears, but more sensitive and faster techniques are required to process large numbers of samples in clinical and epidemiological studies and in blood donor screening. Here, we evaluated molecular and serological tools to build a screening platform for pooled samples aimed at reducing both the time and the cost of these diagnoses. Positive and negative samples were analysed in individual and pooled experiments using real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR), nested PCR and an immunochromatographic test. For the individual tests, 46/49 samples were positive by real-time PCR, 46/49 were positive by nested PCR and 32/46 were positive by immunochromatographic test. For the assays performed using pooled samples, 13/15 samples were positive by real-time PCR and nested PCR and 11/15 were positive by immunochromatographic test. These molecular methods demonstrated sensitivity and specificity for both the individual and pooled samples. Due to the advantages of the real-time PCR, such as the fast processing and the closed system, this method should be indicated as the first choice for use in large-scale diagnosis and the nested PCR should be used for species differentiation. However, additional field isolates should be tested to confirm the results achieved using cultured parasites and the serological test should only be adopted as a complementary method for malaria diagnosis.

Dermatophyte identification in skin and hair samples using a simple and reliable nested polymerase chain reaction assay.

BACKGROUND: Dermatophyte identification in tinea capitis is essential for choosing the appropriate treatment and in tinea infections to identify the possible source. The failure of fungi to grow in cultures frequently occurs, especially in cases of previous antifungal therapy. OBJECTIVES: To develop a rapid polymerase chain reaction (PCR) sequencing assay for dermatophyte identification in tinea capitis and tinea corporis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Fungal DNA was extracted from hair and skin samples that were confirmed to be positive by direct mycological examination. Dermatophytes were identified by the sequence of a 28S ribosomal DNA subunit amplicon generated by nested PCR. RESULTS: Nested PCR was found to be necessary to obtain amplicons in substantial amounts for dermatophyte identification by sequencing. The results agreed with those of classical mycological identification in 14 of 23, 6 of 10, and 20 of 23 cases of tinea capitis, tinea corporis and tinea pedis, respectively, from which a dermatophyte was obtained in culture. In seven of the 56 cases, another dermatophyte was identified, revealing previous misidentification. A dermatophyte was identified in 12 of 18, three of five, and four of nine cases of tinea capitis, tinea corporis and tinea pedis, respectively, in cases in which no dermatophyte grew in culture. CONCLUSIONS: Although the gold standard dermatophyte identification from clinical samples remains fungal cultures, the assay developed in the present study is especially suitable for tinea capitis. Improved sensitivity for the identification of dermatophyte species was obtained as it is possible to identify the dermatophyte when the fungus fails to grow in cultures.

Generation of cell polarity in plants links endocytosis, auxin distribution and cell fate decisions.

Dynamically polarized membrane proteins define different cell boundaries and have an important role in intercellular communication-a vital feature of multicellular development. Efflux carriers for the signalling molecule auxin from the PIN family are landmarks of cell polarity in plants and have a crucial involvement in auxin distribution-dependent development including embryo patterning, organogenesis and tropisms. Polar PIN localization determines the direction of intercellular auxin flow, yet the mechanisms generating PIN polarity remain unclear. Here we identify an endocytosis-dependent mechanism of PIN polarity generation and analyse its developmental implications. Real-time PIN tracking showed that after synthesis, PINs are initially delivered to the plasma membrane in a non-polar manner and their polarity is established by subsequent endocytic recycling. Interference with PIN endocytosis either by auxin or by manipulation of the Arabidopsis Rab5 GTPase pathway prevents PIN polarization. Failure of PIN polarization transiently alters asymmetric auxin distribution during embryogenesis and increases the local auxin response in apical embryo regions. This results in ectopic expression of auxin pathway-associated root-forming master regulators in embryonic leaves and promotes homeotic transformation of leaves to roots. Our results indicate a two-step mechanism for the generation of PIN polar localization and the essential role of endocytosis in this process. It also highlights the link between endocytosis-dependent polarity of individual cells and auxin distribution-dependent cell fate establishment for multicellular patterning.

Insulin-like growth factor-I and C-reactive protein during pregnancy and maternal risk of non-epithelial ovarian cancer: a nested case-control study.

BACKGROUND: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) and C-reactive protein (CRP) may be positively associated with the risk of epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC) but no previous studies have investigated their associations with non-epithelial ovarian cancers (NEOC). METHODS: A case-control study was nested within the Finnish Maternity Cohort. Case subjects were 58 women diagnosed with sex cord-stromal tumors (SCST) and 30 with germ cell tumors (GCT) after recruitment. Control subjects (144 for SCST and 74 for GCT) were matched for age, parity, and date of blood donation of the index case. RESULTS: Doubling of IGF-I concentration was not related to maternal risk of either SCST (OR 0.97, 95% CI 0.58-1.62) or GCT (OR 1.13, 95% CI 0.51-2.51). Similarly, doubling of CRP concentrations was not related to maternal risk of either SCST (OR 1.10, 95% CI 0.85-1.43) or GCT (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.68-1.28). CONCLUSIONS: Pre-diagnostic IGF-I and CRP concentrations during the first trimester of pregnancy were not associated with increased risk of NEOC in the mother. Risk factors for NEOC may differ from those of EOC.

A Nested Case-Control Study of Metabolically Defined Body Size Phenotypes and Risk of Colorectal Cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC).

BACKGROUND Obesity is positively associated with colorectal cancer. Recently, body size subtypes categorised by the prevalence of hyperinsulinaemia have been defined, and metabolically healthy overweight/obese individuals (without hyperinsulinaemia) have been suggested to be at lower risk of cardiovascular disease than their metabolically unhealthy (hyperinsulinaemic) overweight/obese counterparts. Whether similarly variable relationships exist for metabolically defined body size phenotypes and colorectal cancer risk is unknown. METHODS AND FINDINGS The association of metabolically defined body size phenotypes with colorectal cancer was investigated in a case-control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Metabolic health/body size phenotypes were defined according to hyperinsulinaemia status using serum concentrations of C-peptide, a marker of insulin secretion. A total of 737 incident colorectal cancer cases and 737 matched controls were divided into tertiles based on the distribution of C-peptide concentration amongst the control population, and participants were classified as metabolically healthy if below the first tertile of C-peptide and metabolically unhealthy if above the first tertile. These metabolic health definitions were then combined with body mass index (BMI) measurements to create four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories: (1) metabolically healthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), (2) metabolically healthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2), (3) metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (BMI < 25 kg/m2), and (4) metabolically unhealthy/overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2). Additionally, in separate models, waist circumference measurements (using the International Diabetes Federation cut-points [≥80 cm for women and ≥94 cm for men]) were used (instead of BMI) to create the four metabolic health/body size phenotype categories. Statistical tests used in the analysis were all two-sided, and a p-value of <0.05 was considered statistically significant. In multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression models with BMI used to define adiposity, compared with metabolically healthy/normal weight individuals, we observed a higher colorectal cancer risk among metabolically unhealthy/normal weight (odds ratio [OR] = 1.59, 95% CI 1.10-2.28) and metabolically unhealthy/overweight (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.01-1.94) participants, but not among metabolically healthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.65-1.42). Among the overweight individuals, lower colorectal cancer risk was observed for metabolically healthy/overweight individuals compared with metabolically unhealthy/overweight individuals (OR = 0.69, 95% CI 0.49-0.96). These associations were generally consistent when waist circumference was used as the measure of adiposity. To our knowledge, there is no universally accepted clinical definition for using C-peptide level as an indication of hyperinsulinaemia. Therefore, a possible limitation of our analysis was that the classification of individuals as being hyperinsulinaemic-based on their C-peptide level-was arbitrary. However, when we used quartiles or the median of C-peptide, instead of tertiles, as the cut-point of hyperinsulinaemia, a similar pattern of associations was observed. CONCLUSIONS These results support the idea that individuals with the metabolically healthy/overweight phenotype (with normal insulin levels) are at lower colorectal cancer risk than those with hyperinsulinaemia. The combination of anthropometric measures with metabolic parameters, such as C-peptide, may be useful for defining strata of the population at greater risk of colorectal cancer.

Construir la pau i el desenvolupament a la Costa d’Ivori: decisions nacionals, responsabilitats i deures compartits

Un any després de la segona volta de les eleccions presidencials, i a pocs dies de les eleccions legislatives (11 de desembre de 2011), la Costa d’Ivori es troba en un moment especialment important. Després d’intensos enfrontaments armats, el país sembla estar passant cap a una nova etapa de la seva història. Per aquest motiu, ara és un bon moment per establir una retrospectiva crítica de les causes de la crisi postelectoral que, a la vegada, serveixi per construir un escenari per a una construcció pacífica de l’estat. En coherència, aquest policy paper fa una sèrie de recomanacions a curt, mig i llarg termini i pensades a partir d’una premissa: construir la pau i el desenvolupament depèn exclusivament de decisions nacionals, ivorianes, però les responsabilitats i deures són, en alguns casos, compartits per actors nacionals i internacionals. Hom continua així el compromís de l’ICIP amb la construcció de la pau a la Costa d’Ivori.

Decoding decisions in healthy subjects and auditory discrimination in comatose patients through single-trial topographic EEG analyses

Neuroimaging studies analyzing neurophysiological signals are typically based on comparing averages of peri-stimulus epochs across experimental conditions. This approach can however be problematic in the case of high-level cognitive tasks, where response variability across trials is expected to be high and in cases where subjects cannot be considered part of a group. The main goal of this thesis has been to address this issue by developing a novel approach for analyzing electroencephalography (EEG) responses at the single-trial level. This approach takes advantage of the spatial distribution of the electric field on the scalp (topography) and exploits repetitions across trials for quantifying the degree of discrimination between experimental conditions through a classification scheme. In the first part of this thesis, I developed and validated this new method (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Its general applicability was demonstrated with three separate datasets, two in the visual modality and one in the auditory. This development allowed then to target two new lines of research, one in basic and one in clinical neuroscience, which represent the second and third part of this thesis respectively. For the second part of this thesis (Tzovara et al., 2012c), I employed the developed method for assessing the timing of exploratory decision-making. Using single-trial topographic EEG activity during presentation of a choice's payoff, I could predict the subjects' subsequent decisions. This prediction was due to a topographic difference which appeared on average at ~516ms after the presentation of payoff and was subject-specific. These results exploit for the first time the temporal correlates of individual subjects' decisions and additionally show that the underlying neural generators start differentiating their responses already ~880ms before the button press. Finally, in the third part of this project, I focused on a clinical study with the goal of assessing the degree of intact neural functions in comatose patients. Auditory EEG responses were assessed through a classical mismatch negativity paradigm, during the very early phase of coma, which is currently under-investigated. By taking advantage of the decoding method developed in the first part of the thesis, I could quantify the degree of auditory discrimination at the single patient level (Tzovara et al., in press). Our results showed for the first time that even patients who do not survive the coma can discriminate sounds at the neural level, during the first hours after coma onset. Importantly, an improvement in auditory discrimination during the first 48hours of coma was predictive of awakening and survival, with 100% positive predictive value. - L'analyse des signaux électrophysiologiques en neuroimagerie se base typiquement sur la comparaison des réponses neurophysiologiques à différentes conditions expérimentales qui sont moyennées après plusieurs répétitions d'une tâche. Pourtant, cette approche peut être problématique dans le cas des fonctions cognitives de haut niveau, où la variabilité des réponses entre les essais peut être très élevéeou dans le cas où des sujets individuels ne peuvent pas être considérés comme partie d'un groupe. Le but principal de cette thèse est d'investiguer cette problématique en développant une nouvelle approche pour l'analyse des réponses d'électroencephalographie (EEG) au niveau de chaque essai. Cette approche se base sur la modélisation de la distribution du champ électrique sur le crâne (topographie) et profite des répétitions parmi les essais afin de quantifier, à l'aide d'un schéma de classification, le degré de discrimination entre des conditions expérimentales. Dans la première partie de cette thèse, j'ai développé et validé cette nouvelle méthode (Tzovara et al., 2012a,b). Son applicabilité générale a été démontrée avec trois ensembles de données, deux dans le domaine visuel et un dans l'auditif. Ce développement a permis de cibler deux nouvelles lignes de recherche, la première dans le domaine des neurosciences cognitives et l'autre dans le domaine des neurosciences cliniques, représentant respectivement la deuxième et troisième partie de ce projet. En particulier, pour la partie cognitive, j'ai appliqué cette méthode pour évaluer l'information temporelle de la prise des décisions (Tzovara et al., 2012c). En se basant sur l'activité topographique de l'EEG au niveau de chaque essai pendant la présentation de la récompense liée à un choix, on a pu prédire les décisions suivantes des sujets (en termes d'exploration/exploitation). Cette prédiction s'appuie sur une différence topographique qui apparaît en moyenne ~516ms après la présentation de la récompense. Ces résultats exploitent pour la première fois, les corrélés temporels des décisions au niveau de chaque sujet séparément et montrent que les générateurs neuronaux de ces décisions commencent à différentier leurs réponses déjà depuis ~880ms avant que les sujets appuient sur le bouton. Finalement, pour la dernière partie de ce projet, je me suis focalisée sur une étude Clinique afin d'évaluer le degré des fonctions neuronales intactes chez les patients comateux. Des réponses EEG auditives ont été examinées avec un paradigme classique de mismatch negativity, pendant la phase précoce du coma qui est actuellement sous-investiguée. En utilisant la méthode de décodage développée dans la première partie de la thèse, j'ai pu quantifier le degré de discrimination auditive au niveau de chaque patient (Tzovara et al., in press). Nos résultats montrent pour la première fois que même des patients comateux qui ne vont pas survivre peuvent discriminer des sons au niveau neuronal, lors de la phase aigue du coma. De plus, une amélioration dans la discrimination auditive pendant les premières 48heures du coma a été observée seulement chez des patients qui se sont réveillés par la suite (100% de valeur prédictive pour un réveil).

Studying the micro-angels approach to micro-investment decisions

Purpose: The paper analyzes the micro-angels investment behaviour, looking both to the criteria used in the selection of their investment projects and to the characteristics of their guidance role during the investment period. Design/Methodology/Approach: The paper focuses on a double bottom line movement of French micro-angels clubs that has been operating since 1983. Our primary source of data is an online survey carried out during March 2012, asking members of clubs all over France for different aspects of their procedures. Findings: Our findings suggest that micro-angels are interested in small, socially or environmentally friendly projects having the potential to contribute to the development of their neighbourhood. We find that women are even more interested than men in such projects. Educated micro-angels value entrepreneurial motivation and understanding of the project more than less-educated micro-angels. We also point out the factors that micro-angels consider important in accompanying enterprises. Here we find that gender makes little difference. However, retired micro-angels value financial diagnosis made conjointly with entrepreneurs, while both active micro-angels and educated micro-angels value more the use of their network to help micro-entrepreneurs. Practical/Social Implications: Given the potential benefits of micro-angels investing and guiding the development of micro-enterprises, a social micro-angel investment on a major scale in developing countries could help in tackling some of the problems faced by the development of microfinance, such as the over-indebtedness of micro-entrepreneurs. Practitioners and new initiatives would gain from understanding what adaptations need to be made. Originality/value: We expect to add to the venture capital theory to take into account non-economic motives.

Influence of the Premium Subsidy on Farmers’ Crop Insurance Coverage Decisions, April 2005

The Agricultural Risk Protection Act greatly increased the expected marginal net benefit of farmers buying high-coverage crop insurance policies by coupling premium subsidies to coverage level. This policy change, combined with cross-sectional variations in expected marginal net benefits of high-coverage policies, is used to estimate the role that premium subsidies play in farmers’ crop insurance decisions. We use county data for corn, soybeans, and wheat to estimate regression equations that are then used to obtain insight into two policy scenarios. We first estimate that eventual adoption of actuarially fair incremental premiums, combined with current coupled subsidies, would increase farmers’ purchase of high-coverage policies by almost 400 percent from 1998 levels across the three crops and two plans of insurance included in the analysis. We then estimate that a return to decoupled subsidies would decrease farmers’ high-coverage purchase decisions by an average of 36 percent.

Predicting species distributions for conservation decisions.

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly proposed to support conservation decision making. However, evidence of SDMs supporting solutions for on-ground conservation problems is still scarce in the scientific literature. Here, we show that successful examples exist but are still largely hidden in the grey literature, and thus less accessible for analysis and learning. Furthermore, the decision framework within which SDMs are used is rarely made explicit. Using case studies from biological invasions, identification of critical habitats, reserve selection and translocation of endangered species, we propose that SDMs may be tailored to suit a range of decision-making contexts when used within a structured and transparent decision-making process. To construct appropriate SDMs to more effectively guide conservation actions, modellers need to better understand the decision process, and decision makers need to provide feedback to modellers regarding the actual use of SDMs to support conservation decisions. This could be facilitated by individuals or institutions playing the role of 'translators' between modellers and decision makers. We encourage species distribution modellers to get involved in real decision-making processes that will benefit from their technical input; this strategy has the potential to better bridge theory and practice, and contribute to improve both scientific knowledge and conservation outcomes.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.