Modelling predicts positive and negative interactions between three Australian tropical tree species in monoculture and binary mixture

Computer modelling promises to be an important tool for analysing and predicting interactions between trees within mixed species forest plantations. This study explored the use of an individual-based mechanistic model as a predictive tool for designing mixed species plantations of Australian tropical trees. The `spatially explicit individually based-forest simulator' (SeXI-FS) modelling system was used to describe the spatial interaction of individual tree crowns within a binary mixed-species experiment. The three-dimensional model was developed and verified with field data from three forest tree species grown in tropical Australia. The model predicted the interactions within monocultures and binary mixtures of Flindersia brayleyana, Eucalyptus pellita and Elaeocarpus grandis, accounting for an average of 42% of the growth variation exhibited by species in different treatments. The model requires only structural dimensions and shade tolerance as species parameters. By modelling interactions in existing tree mixtures, the model predicted both increases and reductions in the growth of mixtures (up to +/-50% of stem volume at 7 years) compared to monocultures. This modelling approach may be useful for designing mixed tree plantations.

Annual forecasting of the Australian macadamia crop - integrating tree census data with statistical climate-adjustment models

To facilitate marketing and export, the Australian macadamia industry requires accurate crop forecasts. Each year, two levels of crop predictions are produced for this industry. The first is an overall longer-term forecast based on tree census data of growers in the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS). This data set currently accounts for around 70% of total production, and is supplemented by our best estimates of non-AMS orchards. Given these total tree numbers, average yields per tree are needed to complete the long-term forecasts. Yields from regional variety trials were initially used, but were found to be consistently higher than the average yields that growers were obtaining. Hence, a statistical model was developed using growers' historical yields, also taken from the AMS database. This model accounted for the effects of tree age, variety, year, region and tree spacing, and explained 65% of the total variation in the yield per tree data. The second level of crop prediction is an annual climate adjustment of these overall long-term estimates, taking into account the expected effects on production of the previous year's climate. This adjustment is based on relative historical yields, measured as the percentage deviance between expected and actual production. The dominant climatic variables are observed temperature, evaporation, solar radiation and modelled water stress. Initially, a number of alternate statistical models showed good agreement within the historical data, with jack-knife cross-validation R2 values of 96% or better. However, forecasts varied quite widely between these alternate models. Exploratory multivariate analyses and nearest-neighbour methods were used to investigate these differences. For 2001-2003, the overall forecasts were in the right direction (when compared with the long-term expected values), but were over-estimates. In 2004 the forecast was well under the observed production, and in 2005 the revised models produced a forecast within 5.1% of the actual production. Over the first five years of forecasting, the absolute deviance for the climate-adjustment models averaged 10.1%, just outside the targeted objective of 10%.

Tree-ring based hydroclimate reconstruction over northern Vietnam from Fokienia hodginsii: eighteenth century mega-drought and tropical Pacific influence

We present here the first statistically calibrated and verified tree-ring reconstruction of climate from continental Southeast Asia.The reconstructed variable is March-May (MAM) Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) based on ring widths from 22 trees (42 radial cores) of rare and long-lived conifer, Fokienia hodginsii (Po Mu as locally called) from northern Vietnam. This is the first published tree ring chronology from Vietnam as well as the first for this species. Spanning 535 years, this is the longest cross-dated tree-ring series yet produced from continental Southeast Asia. Response analysis revealed that the annual growth of Fokienia at this site was mostly governed by soil moisture in the pre-monsoon season. The reconstruction passed the calibration-verification tests commonly used in dendroclimatology, and revealed two prominent periods of drought in the mid-eighteenth and late-nineteenth enturies. The former lasted nearly 30 years and was concurrent with a similar drought over northwestern Thailand inferred from teak rings, suggesting a ``mega-drought'' extending across Indochina in the eighteenth century. Both of our reconstructed droughts are consistent with the periods of warm sea surface temperature (SST)anomalies in the tropical Pacific. Spatial correlation analyses with global SST indicated that ENSO-like anomalies might play a role in modulating droughts over the region, with El Nio (warm) phases resulting in reduced rainfall. However, significant correlation was also seen with SST over the Indian Ocean and the north Pacific,suggesting that ENSO is not the only factor affecting the climate of the area. Spectral analyses revealed significant peaks in the range of 53.9-78.8 years as well as in the ENSO-variability range of 2.0 to 3.2 years.

Achievements in forest tree genetic improvement in Australia and New Zealand 2: Development of Corymbia species and hybrids for plantations in eastern Australia

This paper describes the establishment of provenance seedling seed orchards of three spotted gums and cadaga (all species of Corymbia ex Eucalyptus). It also discusses the limitations of growing the spotted gums as pure species including: lack of mass flowering, susceptibility to a fungal shoot blight and low amenability to vegetative propagation. These limitations, together with observation of putative natural hybrids of the spotted gums with cadaga, and the early promise of manipulated hybrids, led to an intensive breeding and testing program. Many hybrid families have significant advantages in growth and tolerance to disease, insects and frost, and can be vegetatively propagated. They also exhibit broad environmental plasticity, allowing the best varieties to be planted across a wider range of sites than the spotted gums, resulting in more land being suitable for plantation development.

Screening selected myrtaceous tree species for production of essential oils in northern Queensland

Trials to identify alternative cropping options to Melaleuca alternifolia for northern Queensland essential oil growers were established at Dimbulah and Innot Hot Springs in 2001. Seed sources of Asteromyrtus symphyocarpa (1,8-cineole form), Eucalyptus staigeriana (citral), Melaleuca cajuputi subsp. cajuputi (trans-nerolidol), M. ericifolia (d-linalool), M. quinquenervia (trans-nerolidol and viridiflorol forms) and M. viridiflora (methyl cinnamate) with potential to produce commercial foliar oils were evaluated. Information was gathered on their adaptability, growth and oil yields over 49 months and 52 months (two harvests) from planting at Dimbulah and Innot Hot Springs, respectively. Of the species and chemotypes evaluated, M. quinquenervia showed potential for commercial production of trans-nerolidol, a compound used in perfumery. It had a very high survival rate (96%) and yields could be expected to improve dramatically from the average 100 kg/ha per harvest achieved in these trials with further research into selection of seed source, control of insect damage and breeding for genetic improvement. M. cajuputi subsp. cajuputi gave a similar performance to M. quinquenervia. The rarity of the trans-nerolidol form of this species and remoteness of its natural occurrence are impediments to further planting and research. E. staigeriana, with second harvest yields of ~600 kg/ha, performed exceptionally well on both sites but potential for development is limited by the ready availability of competitively priced E. staigeriana oil produced in South America. Survival of M. ericifolia ranged from 62% to 82% at 32 months (second harvest) at Innot Hot Springs and was deemed a failure at Dimbulah with poor growth and low survival, raising a major question about the suitability of this species for cultivation in the seasonally dry tropics. Planting of this species on a wider scale in northern Queensland cannot be recommended until more is known about factors affecting its survival. A. symphyocarpa and M. viridiflora were too slow-growing to warrant further consideration as potential oil-producing species at this time.

Comparison of decision tree, support vector machines, and Bayesian network approaches for classification of falls in Parkinson’s disease

Being able to accurately predict the risk of falling is crucial in patients with Parkinson’s dis- ease (PD). This is due to the unfavorable effect of falls, which can lower the quality of life as well as directly impact on survival. Three methods considered for predicting falls are decision trees (DT), Bayesian networks (BN), and support vector machines (SVM). Data on a 1-year prospective study conducted at IHBI, Australia, for 51 people with PD are used. Data processing are conducted using rpart and e1071 packages in R for DT and SVM, con- secutively; and Bayes Server 5.5 for the BN. The results show that BN and SVM produce consistently higher accuracy over the 12 months evaluation time points (average sensitivity and specificity > 92%) than DT (average sensitivity 88%, average specificity 72%). DT is prone to imbalanced data so needs to adjust for the misclassification cost. However, DT provides a straightforward, interpretable result and thus is appealing for helping to identify important items related to falls and to generate fallers’ profiles.

An (O)over-tilde(mn) Gomory-Hu Tree Construction Algorithm for Unweighted Graphs

We present a fast algorithm for computing a Gomory-Hu tree or cut tree for an unweighted undirected graph G = (V, E). The expected running time of our algorithm is (O) over tilde (mc) where vertical bar E vertical bar = m and c is the maximum u-v edge connectivity, where u, v is an element of V. When the input graph is also simple (i.e., it has no parallel edges), then the u-v edge connectivity for each pair of vertices u and v is at most n - 1; so the expected run-ning time of our algorithm for simple unweighted graphs is (O) over tilde (mn). All the algorithms currently known for constructing a Gomory-Hu tree [8, 9] use n - 1 minimum s-t cut (i.e., max flow) subroutines. This in conjunction with the current fastest (O) over tilde (n(20/9)) max flow algorithm due to Karger and Levine[11] yields the current best running time of (O) over tilde (n(20/9)n) for Gomory-Hu tree construction on simple unweighted graphs with m edges and n vertices. Thus we present the first (O) over tilde (mn) algorithm for constructing a Gomory-Hu tree for simple unweighted graphs. We do not use a max flow subroutine here; we present an efficient tree packing algorithm for computing Steiner edge connectivity and use this algorithm as our main subroutine. The advantage in using a tree packing algorithm for constructing a Gomory-Hu tree is that the work done in computing a minimum Steiner cut for a Steiner set S subset of V can be reused for computing a minimum Steiner cut for certain Steiner sets S' subset of S.

Landscape structure influences tree density patterns in fragmented woodlands in semi-arid eastern Australia.

Landscape and local-scale influences are important drivers of plant community structure. However, their relative contribution and the degree to which they interact remain unclear. We quantified the extent to which landscape structure, within-patch habitat and their confounding effects determine post-clearing tree densities and composition in agricultural landscapes in eastern subtropical Australia. Landscape structure (incorporating habitat fragmentation and loss) and within-patch (site) features were quantified for 60 remnant patches of Eucalyptus populnea (Myrtaceae) woodland. Tree density and species for three ecological maturity classes (regeneration, early maturity, late maturity) and local site features were assessed in one 100 × 10 m plot per patch. All but one landscape characteristic was determined within a 1.3-km radius of plots; Euclidean nearest neighbour distance was measured inside a 5-km radius. Variation in tree density and composition for each maturity class was partitioned into independent landscape, independent site and joint effects of landscape and site features using redundancy analysis. Independent site effects explained more variation in regeneration density and composition than pure landscape effects; significant predictors were the proportion of early and late maturity trees at a site, rainfall and the associated interaction. Conversely, landscape structure explained greater variation in early and late maturity tree density and composition than site predictors. Area of remnant native vegetation within a landscape and patch characteristics (area, shape, edge contrast) were significant predictors of early maturity tree density. However, 31% of the explained variation in early mature tree differences represented confounding influences of landscape and local variables. We suggest that within-patch characteristics are important in influencing semi-arid woodland tree regeneration. However, independent and confounding effects of landscape structure resulting from previous vegetation clearing may have exerted a greater historical influence on older cohorts and should be accounted for when examining woodland dynamics across a broader range of environments.

Reproduction of family tree, possibly the Gottschalk Stammbaum from the home of Henriette Gottschalk nee Rothschild Genealogy

Others remember the Gottschalk Stammbaum from the home of Henriette Gottschalk nee Rothschild as having only one tree

Tree growth relationships and silvicultural tools to assist stand management in private native spotted gum dominant forests in Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Spotted gum dominant forests occur from Cooktown in northern Queensland (Qld) to Orbost in Victoria (Boland et al. 2006) and these forests are commercially very important with spotted gum the most commonly harvested hardwood timber in Qld and one of the most important in New South Wales (NSW). Spotted gum has a wide range of end uses from solid wood products through to power transmission poles and generally has excellent sawing and timber qualities (Hopewell 2004). The private native forest resource in southern Qld and northern NSW is a critical component of the hardwood timber industry (Anon 2005, Timber Qld 2006) and currently half or more of the native forest timber resource harvested in northern NSW and Qld is sourced from private land. However, in many cases productivity on private lands is well below what could be achieved with appropriate silvicultural management. This project provides silvicultural management tools to assist extension staff, land owners and managers in the south east Qld and north eastern NSW regions. The intent was that this would lead to improvement of the productivity of the private estate through implementation of appropriate management. The other intention of this project was to implement a number of silvicultural experiments and demonstration sites to provide data on growth rates of managed and unmanaged forests so that landholders can make informed decisions on the future management of their forests. To assist forest managers and improve the ability to predict forest productivity in the private resource, the project has developed: • A set of spotted gum specific silvicultural guidelines for timber production on private land that cover both silvicultural treatment and harvesting. The guidelines were developed for extension officers and property owners. • A simple decision support tool, referred to as the spotted gum productivity assessment tool (SPAT), that allows an estimation of: 1. Tree growth productivity on specific sites. Estimation is based on the analysis of site and growth data collected from a large number of yield and experimental plots on Crown land across a wide range of spotted gum forest types. Growth algorithms were developed using tree growth and site data and the algorithms were used to formulate basic economic predictors. 2. Pasture development under a range of tree stockings and the expected livestock carrying capacity at nominated tree stockings for a particular area. 3. Above-ground tree biomass and carbon stored in trees. •A series of experiments in spotted gum forests on private lands across the study area to quantify growth and to provide measures of the effect of silvicultural thinning and different agro-forestry regimes. The adoption and use of these tools by farm forestry extension officers and private land holders in both field operations and in training exercises will, over time, improve the commercial management of spotted gum forests for both timber and grazing. Future measurement of the experimental sites at ages five, 10 and 15 years will provide longer term data on the effects of various stocking rates and thinning regimes and facilitate modification and improvement of these silvicultural prescriptions.

Productivity of plantation hardwood tree species in north-eastern Australia: A report from the Forest Adaptation and Sequestration Alliance

The report summarises data from a large number of trials of species with potential for use by the plantation forest industry in north-eastern Australia and provides information aimed at improving the understanding of growth rates, pest and disease risks and carbon sequestration. Data is summarised and presented at a regional level as opposed to individual trial or plot level. As well, nutritional impediments to tree growth and impacts on forest health are also reported. This report is intended to contribute to policy deliberations about developing forestry opportunities that can that can be integrated into the landscape, with particular consideration given to lower rainfall regions. There are several examples in north-eastern Australia where production forests have developed sub-optimally; this has often been due to poor selection of tree species as little information has been available. This report helps address this deficiency.

Controlling fly strike and louse infections in sheep with tea tree oil

This study aimed to assess the effect of tea tree oil based formulations against two major ectoparasitic diseases in the sheep industry, flystrike and louse infestation, and to provide data to assist the assessment of the commercial feasibility of development of tea tree oil based ectoparasiticides. The results demonstrate insecticidal effects against both sheep lice and blowflies and repellent effects against adult flies and maggots. Dipping sheep in a Tea Tree Oil based formulation appeared to completely eradicate lice and suggests its potential use in sheep dipping formulations. Repellent and insecticidal effects against sheep blowflies, together with previously reported anti-microbial and wound healing properties, suggest significant benefits from the inclusion of tea tree oil in flystrike and wound treatment formulations. These effects occurred at concentrations of Tea Tree Oil that suggest the commercial viability of development of Tea Tree Oil based formulations for sheep parasite control and wound treatment and a potential new market for Tea Tree Oil.

Use of tea tree oil against buffalo flies in cattle

Testing tea tree oil against buffalo flies on cattle.

Marker development for genes controlling mango tree architecture

Identification of candidate genes controlling, mango tree architecture.