A probabilistic approach to niche-based community models for spatial forecasts of assemblage properties and their uncertainties

Aim Conservation strategies are in need of predictions that capture spatial community composition and structure. Currently, the methods used to generate these predictions generally focus on deterministic processes and omit important stochastic processes and other unexplained variation in model outputs. Here we test a novel approach of community models that accounts for this variation and determine how well it reproduces observed properties of alpine butterfly communities. Location The western Swiss Alps. Methods We propose a new approach to process probabilistic predictions derived from stacked species distribution models (S-SDMs) in order to predict and assess the uncertainty in the predictions of community properties. We test the utility of our novel approach against a traditional threshold-based approach. We used mountain butterfly communities spanning a large elevation gradient as a case study and evaluated the ability of our approach to model species richness and phylogenetic diversity of communities. Results S-SDMs reproduced the observed decrease in phylogenetic diversity and species richness with elevation, syndromes of environmental filtering. The prediction accuracy of community properties vary along environmental gradient: variability in predictions of species richness was higher at low elevation, while it was lower for phylogenetic diversity. Our approach allowed mapping the variability in species richness and phylogenetic diversity projections. Main conclusion Using our probabilistic approach to process species distribution models outputs to reconstruct communities furnishes an improved picture of the range of possible assemblage realisations under similar environmental conditions given stochastic processes and help inform manager of the uncertainty in the modelling results

Trace element partitioning in HP-LT metamorphic assemblages during subduction-related metamorphism, Ile de Groix, France: a detailed LA-ICPMS study

Devolatilization reactions and subsequent transfer of fluid from subducted oceanic crust into the overlying mantle wedge are important processes, which are responsible for the specific geochemical characteristics of subduction-related metamorphic rocks, as well as those of arc magmatism. To better understand the geochemical fingerprint induced by fluid mobilization during dehydration and rehydration processes related to subduction zone metamorphism, the trace element and rare earth element (REE) distribution patterns in HP-LT metamorphic assemblages in eclogite-, blueschist- and greenschist-facies rocks of the Ile de Groix were obtained by laser ablation inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (LA-ICPMS) analysis. This study focuses on 10 massive basic rocks representing former hydrothermally altered mid-ocean ridge basalts (MORB), four banded basic rocks of volcano-sedimentary origin and one micaschist. The main hosts for incompatible trace elements are epidote (REE, Th, U, Pb, Sr), garnet [Y, heavy REE (HREE)], phengite (Cs, Rb, Ba, B), titanite [Ti, Nb, Ta, REE; HREE > LREE (light REE)], rutile (Ti, Nb, Ta) and apatite (REE, Sr). The trace element contents of omphacite, amphibole, albite and chlorite are low. The incompatible trace element contents of minerals are controlled by the stable metamorphic mineral assemblage and directly related to the appearance, disappearance and reappearance of minerals, especially epidote, garnet, titanite, rutile and phengite, during subduction zone metamorphism. Epidote is a key mineral in the trace element exchange process because of its large stability field, ranging from lower greenschist- to blueschist- and eclogite-facies conditions. Different generations of epidote are generally observed and related to the coexisting phases at different stages of the metamorphic cycle (e.g. lawsonite, garnet, titanite). Epidote thus controls most of the REE budget during the changing P-T conditions along the prograde and retrograde path. Phengite also plays an important role in determining the large ion lithophile element (LILE) budget, as it is stable to high P-T conditions. The breakdown of phengite causes the release of LILE during retrogression. A comparison of trace element abundances in whole-rocks and minerals shows that the HP-LT metamorphic rocks largely retain the geochemical characteristics of their basic, volcano-sedimentary and pelitic protoliths, including a hydrothermal alteration overprint before the subduction process. A large part of the incompatible trace elements remained trapped in the rocks and was recycled within the various metamorphic assemblages stable under changing metamorphic conditions during the subduction process, indicating that devolatilization reactions in massive basic rocks do not necessarily imply significant simultaneous trace element and REE release.

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , Villa Pia. Peintures dans la Voûte de la galerie du premier Etage. Stucs. Décoration en mosaïque dans les vestibules aux entrées de la cour : [détails ornementaux, élévation partielle d'un des vestibules (trois niches), coupe sur une niche, projection du plafond de ladite niche] : [dessin] / h. L. [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 636

Novel acid phosphatase in Candida glabrata suggests selective pressure and niche specialization in the phosphate signal transduction pathway.

Evolution through natural selection suggests unnecessary genes are lost. We observed that the yeast Candida glabrata lost the gene encoding a phosphate-repressible acid phosphatase (PHO5) present in many yeasts including Saccharomyces cerevisiae. However, C. glabrata still had phosphate starvation-inducible phosphatase activity. Screening a C. glabrata genomic library, we identified CgPMU2, a member of a three-gene family that contains a phosphomutase-like domain. This small-scale gene duplication event could allow for sub- or neofunctionalization. On the basis of phylogenetic and biochemical characterizations, CgPMU2 has neofunctionalized to become a broad range, phosphate starvation-regulated acid phosphatase, which functionally replaces PHO5 in this pathogenic yeast. We determined that CgPmu2, unlike ScPho5, is not able to hydrolyze phytic acid (inositol hexakisphosphate). Phytic acid is present in fruits and seeds where S. cerevisiae grows, but is not abundant in mammalian tissues where C. glabrata grows. We demonstrated that C. glabrata is limited from an environment where phytic acid is the only source of phosphate. Our work suggests that during evolutionary time, the selection for the ancestral PHO5 was lost and that C. glabrata neofunctionalized a weak phosphatase to replace PHO5. Convergent evolution of a phosphate starvation-inducible acid phosphatase in C. glabrata relative to most yeast species provides an example of how small changes in signal transduction pathways can mediate genetic isolation and uncovers a potential speciation gene.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.

Growth of and partitioning between shoot and storage root of carrot in a northern climate

Selostus: Porkkanan kasvu ja biomassan jakautuminen varastojuuren ja verson välillä pohjoisissa oloissa

Response to comment on "Climatic niche shifts are rare among terrestrial plant invaders"

Webber et al. take a critical view of our findings that niche expansions are rare in plant invaders, arguing mainly that we did not include nonanalog climates in our analyses. Yet, their concerns include misunderstandings and go beyond the scope of our study, which was purposely restricted to analog climates. We further explain why our results remain robust to other factors of niche dynamics in the native range. We conclude that the implications of our findings remain valid for projections of niche models in analog climates and that projections in nonanalog climates should be undertaken with care.

[Voyage en Italie : 1824-1830]. , [Peinture décorant la niche d'un laraire] d'après l'ouvrage de M. Mazois : [un motif représentant une divinité, assise sur un lit et tenant une corne d'abondance] : [dessin] / h. L. [Henri Labrouste]

Référence bibliographique : Weigert, 430

Effect of management practices on mycorrhizal infection, growth and dry matter partitioning in field-grown bean

The experiment was carried out on unsterilized field soil with low phosphorus availability with the objective of examining the effect of cultural practices on mycorrhizal colonization and growth of common bean. The treatments were: three pre-crops (maize, wheat and fallow) followed by three soil management practices ("ploughing", mulching and bare fallow without "ploughing" during the winter months). After the cultural practices, Phaseolus vulgaris cv. Canadian Wonder was grown in this soil. Fallowing and soil disturbance reduced natural soil infectivity. Mycorrhizal infection of the bean roots occurred more rapidly in the recently cropped soil than in the fallow soil. Prior cropping with a strongly mycorrhizal plant (maize) increased infectivity even further.

N-partitioning, nitrate reductase and glutamine synthetase activities in two contrasting varieties of maize

In order to identify useful parameters for maize genetic breeding programs aiming at a more efficient use of N, two maize varieties of contrasting N efficiency, Sol da Manhã NF (efficient) and Catetão (inefficient) were compared. Experiments were carried out under field and greenhouse conditions, at low and high N levels. The parameters analysed included total and relative plant and grain N content, biomass and the activities of nitrate reductase and glutamine synthetase in different parts of the plant. It was found that the translocation efficiency of N and photoassimilates to the developing seeds and the source-sink relations were significantly different for the two varieties. N content of the whole plant and grain, cob weight and the relative ear dry weight were useful parameters for characterizing the variety Sol da Manhã NF as to its efficient use of N. Enzymes activity of glutamine synthetase (transferase reaction) and nitrate reductase did not differ among the varieties.

Interactions between cancer stem cells and their niche govern metastatic colonization.

Metastatic growth in distant organs is the major cause of cancer mortality. The development of metastasis is a multistage process with several rate-limiting steps. Although dissemination of tumour cells seems to be an early and frequent event, the successful initiation of metastatic growth, a process termed 'metastatic colonization', is inefficient for many cancer types and is accomplished only by a minority of cancer cells that reach distant sites. Prevalent target sites are characteristic of many tumour entities, suggesting that inadequate support by distant tissues contributes to the inefficiency of the metastatic process. Here we show that a small population of cancer stem cells is critical for metastatic colonization, that is, the initial expansion of cancer cells at the secondary site, and that stromal niche signals are crucial to this expansion process. We find that periostin (POSTN), a component of the extracellular matrix, is expressed by fibroblasts in the normal tissue and in the stroma of the primary tumour. Infiltrating tumour cells need to induce stromal POSTN expression in the secondary target organ (in this case lung) to initiate colonization. POSTN is required to allow cancer stem cell maintenance, and blocking its function prevents metastasis. POSTN recruits Wnt ligands and thereby increases Wnt signalling in cancer stem cells. We suggest that the education of stromal cells by infiltrating tumour cells is an important step in metastatic colonization and that preventing de novo niche formation may be a novel strategy for the treatment of metastatic disease.

Predicting present and future intra-specific genetic structure through niche hindcasting across 24 millennia.

Paleoclimatic reconstructions coupled with species distribution models and identification of extant spatial genetic structure have the potential to provide insights into the demographic events that shape the distribution of intra-specific genetic variation across time. Using the globeflower Trollius europaeus as a case-study, we combined (1) Amplified Fragment Length Polymorphisms, (2) suites of 1000-years stepwise hindcasted species distributions and (3) a model of diffusion through time over the last 24,000 years, to trace the spatial dynamics that most likely fits the species' current genetic structure. We show that the globeflower comprises four gene pools in Europe which, from the dry period preceding the Last Glacial Maximum, dispersed while tracking the conditions fitting its climatic niche. Among these four gene pools, two are predicted to experience drastic range retraction in the near future. Our interdisciplinary approach, applicable to virtually any taxon, is an advance in inferring how climate change impacts species' genetic structures.

Residence time, expansion toward the equator in the invaded range and native range size matter to climatic niche shifts in non-native species

Aim Identifying climatic niche shifts and their drivers is important to accurately predict the risk of biological invasions. The niches of non-native plants and birds have recently been assessed in large-scale multi-species studies, but such large-scale tests are lacking for non-native reptiles and amphibians (herpetofauna). Furthermore, little is known about the factors contributing to niche shifts when they occur. Based on the occurrence of 71 reptile and amphibian species, we compared native and non-native realized niches in 101 invaded ranges at a worldwide scale and identified the factors that affect niche shifts. Location The world except the Antarctic. Methods We assessed climatic niche dynamics in a gridded environmental space allowing the quantification of niche overlap and expansion into climatic conditions not colonized by the species in their native range. We analyzed the factors affecting niche shifts using a model averaging approach based on generalized linear mixed-effects models. Results Approximately 57% of the invaded ranges (51% for amphibians and 61% for reptiles) showed niche shifts (≥10% expansion in the realized climatic niche). Island endemics, species introduced to Oceania and invaded ranges outside the native biogeographic realm showed a higher proportion of niche shifts. Niche shifts were more likely for species that had smaller native range sizes, were introduced earlier into a new range or invaded areas located at lower latitudes than the native range. Main conclusions The proportion of niche shifts for non-native herpetofauna was higher than those for Holarctic non-native plants and European non-native birds. The 'climate matching hypothesis' should be used with caution for species shifting their niche because it could underestimate the risk of their establishment.

Variation in the proportion of flower visitors of Arum maculatum along its distributional range in relation with community‐based climatic niche analyses

Here, we investigate the geographical constancy in the specificity level of the specialized lure-and-trap pollination antagonism involving the widespread European Arum maculatum and its associated Psychodid pollinators. Until now, studies concurred in demonstrating that one single insect species, Psychoda phalaenoides, efficiently cross-pollinated plants; researches were, however, performed locally in western Europe. In this study we characterize for the first time the flower visitors' composition at the scale of the distribution range of A. maculatum by intensively collecting plants and insects throughout the European continent. We further correlate local climatic characteristics with the community composition of visiting arthropods.Our results show that flowers are generally visited by P. phalaenoides females, but not over the whole distribution range of the plant. In some regions this fly species is less frequent or even absent and another species, Psycha grisescens, becomes the prevailing visitor. This variability is geographically structured and can be explained by climatic factors: the proportion of P. grisescens increases with higher annual precipitations and lower precipitations in the warmest trimester, two characteristics typical of the Mediterranean zone. Climate thus seems driving the specificity of this interaction, by potentially affecting the phenology of one or both interacting species, or even of volatile and heat production in the plant. This result therefore challenges the specificity of other presumably one-to-one interactions covering wide distribution ranges, and provides an example of the direct effect that the abiotic environment can have on the fate of plant-insect interactions.