Abrupt transitions in the NAO control of explosive North Atlantic cyclone development

Explosive cyclones are intense extra-tropical low pressure systems featuring large deepening rates. In the Euro-Atlantic sector, they are a major source of life-threatening weather impacts due to their associated strong wind gusts, heavy precipitation and storm surges. The wintertime variability of the North Atlantic cyclonic activity is primarily modulated by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In this study, we investigate the interannual and multi-decadal variability of explosive North Atlantic cyclones using track density data from two reanalysis datasets (NCEP and ERA-40) and a control simulation of an atmosphere/ocean coupled General Circulation Model (GCM—ECHAM5/MPIOM1). The leading interannual and multi-decadal modes of variability of explosive cyclone track density are characterized by a strengthening/weakening pattern between Newfoundland and Iceland, which is mainly modulated by the NAO at both timescales. However, the NAO control of interannual cyclone variability is not stationary in time and abruptly fluctuates during periods of 20–25 years long both in NCEP and ECHAM5/MPIOM1. These transitions are accompanied by structural changes in the leading mode of explosive cyclone variability, and by decreased/enhanced baroclinicity over the sub-polar/sub-tropical North Atlantic. The influence of the ocean is apparently important for both the occurrence and persistence of such anomalous periods. In the GCM, the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation appears to influence the large-scale baroclinicity and explosive cyclone development over the North Atlantic. These results permit a better understanding of explosive cyclogenesis variability at different climatic timescales and might help to improve predictions of these hazardous events.

Inter-comparison of stratospheric mean-meridional circulation and eddy mixing among six reanalysis data sets

The stratospheric mean-meridional circulation (MMC) and eddy mixing are compared among six meteorological reanalysis data sets: NCEP-NCAR, NCEP-CFSR, ERA-40, ERA-Interim, JRA-25, and JRA-55 for the period 1979–2012. The reanalysis data sets produced using advanced systems (i.e., NCEP-CFSR, ERA-Interim, and JRA-55) generally reveal a weaker MMC in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) compared with those produced using older systems (i.e., NCEP/NCAR, ERA-40, and JRA-25). The mean mixing strength differs largely among the data products. In the NH lower stratosphere, the contribution of planetary-scale mixing is larger in the new data sets than in the old data sets, whereas that of small-scale mixing is weaker in the new data sets. Conventional data assimilation techniques introduce analysis increments without maintaining physical balance, which may have caused an overly strong MMC and spurious small-scale eddies in the old data sets. At the NH mid-latitudes, only ERA-Interim reveals a weakening MMC trend in the deep branch of the Brewer–Dobson circulation (BDC). The relative importance of the eddy mixing compared with the mean-meridional transport in the subtropical lower stratosphere shows increasing trends in ERA-Interim and JRA-55; this together with the weakened MMC in the deep branch may imply an increasing age-of-air (AoA) in the NH middle stratosphere in ERA-Interim. Overall, discrepancies between the different variables and trends therein as derived from the different reanalyses are still relatively large, suggesting that more investments in these products are needed in order to obtain a consolidated picture of observed changes in the BDC and the mechanisms that drive them.

South Atlantic Ocean cyclogenesis climatology simulated by regional climate model (RegCM3)

A detailed climatology of the cyclogenesis over the Southern Atlantic Ocean (SAO) from 1990 to 1999 and how it is simulated by the RegCM3 (Regional Climate Model) is presented here. The simulation used as initial and boundary conditions the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) reanalysis. The cyclones were identified with an automatic scheme that searches for cyclonic relative vorticity (zeta(10)) obtained from a 10-m height wind field. All the systems with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1) and lifetime equal or larger than 24 h were considered in the climatology. Over SAO, in 10 years were detected 2,760 and 2,787 cyclogeneses in the simulation and NCEP, respectively, with an annual mean of 276.0 +/- A 11.2 and 278.7 +/- A 11.1. This result suggests that the RegCM3 has a good skill to simulate the cyclogenesis climatology. However, the larger model underestimations (-9.8%) are found for the initially stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)). It was noted that over the SAO the annual cycle of the cyclogenesis depends of its initial intensity. Considering the systems initiate with zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -1.5 x 10(-5) s(-1), the annual cycle is not well defined and the higher frequency occurs in the autumn (summer) in the NCEP (RegCM3). The stronger systems (zeta(10) a parts per thousand currency sign -2.5 x 10(-5) s(-1)) have a well-characterized high frequency of cyclogenesis during the winter in both NCEP and RegCM3. This work confirms the existence of three cyclogenetic regions in the west sector of the SAO, near the South America east coast and shows that RegCM3 is able to reproduce the main features of these cyclogenetic areas.

Climatological features of cutoff low systems in the Southern Hemisphere

Cutoff lows (COLs) pressure systems climatology for the Southern Hemisphere (SH), between 10 degrees S and 50 degrees S, using the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) and the ERA-40 European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) reanalyses are analyzed for the period 1979-1999. COLs were identified at three pressure levels (200, 300, and 500 hPa) using an objective method that considers the main physical characteristics of the conceptual model of COLs. Independently of the pressure level analyzed, the climatology from the ERA-40 reanalysis has more COLs systems than the NCEP-NCAR. However, both reanalyses present a large frequency of COLs at 300 hPa, followed by 500 and 200 hPa. The seasonality of COLs differs at each pressure level, but it is similar between the reanalyses. COLs are more frequent during summer, autumn, and winter at 200, 300, and 500 hPa, respectively. At these levels, they tend to occur around the continents, preferentially from southeastern Australia to New Zealand, the south of South America, and the south of Africa. To study the COLs at 200 and 300 hPa from a regional perspective, the SH was divided in three regions: Australia-New Zealand (60 E-130 W), South America (130 degrees W-20 degrees W), and southern Africa (20 degrees W-60 degrees E). The common COLs features in these sectors for both reanalyses are a short lifetime (similar to 80.0% and similar to 70.0% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, persisting for up to 3 days), mobility (similar to 70.0% and similar to 50% of COLs at 200 and 300 hPa, respectively, traveling distances of up to 1200 km), and an eastward propagation.

Precipitation diurnal cycle and summer climatology assessment over South America: An evaluation of Regional Climate Model version 3 simulations

Regional Climate Model version 3 (RegCM3) simulations of 17 summers (1988-2004) over part of South America south of 5 degrees S were evaluated to identify model systematic errors. Model results were compared to different rainfall data sets (Climate Research Unit (CRU), Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), and National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis), including the five summers mean (1998-2002) precipitation diurnal cycle observed by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)-Precipitation Radar (PR). In spite of regional differences, the RegCM3 simulates the main observed aspects of summer climatology associated with the precipitation (northwest-southeast band of South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ)) and air temperature (warmer air in the central part of the continent and colder in eastern Brazil and the Andes Mountains). At a regional scale, the main RegCM3 failures are the underestimation of the precipitation in the northern branch of the SACZ and some unrealistic intense precipitation around the Andes Mountains. However, the RegCM3 seasonal precipitation is closer to the fine-scale analyses (CPC, CRU, and TRMM-PR) than is the NCEP reanalysis, which presents an incorrect north-south orientation of SACZ and an overestimation of its intensity. The precipitation diurnal cycle observed by TRMM-PR shows pronounced contrasts between Tropics and Extratropics and land and ocean, where most of these features are simulated by RegCM3. The major similarities between the simulation and observation, especially the diurnal cycle phase, are found over the continental tropical and subtropical SACZ regions, which present afternoon maximum (1500-1800 UTC) and morning minimum (0900-1200 UTC). More specifically, over the core of SACZ, the phase and amplitude of the simulated precipitation diurnal cycle are very close to the TRMM-PR observations. Although there are amplitude differences, the RegCM3 simulates the observed nighttime rainfall in the eastern Andes Mountains, over the Atlantic Ocean, and also over northern Argentina. The main simulation deficiencies are found in the Atlantic Ocean and near the Andes Mountains. Over the Atlantic Ocean the convective scheme is not triggered; thus the rainfall arises from the grid-scale scheme and therefore differs from the TRMM-PR. Near the Andes, intense (nighttime and daytime) simulated precipitation could be a response of an incorrect circulation and topographic uplift. Finally, it is important to note that unlike most reported bias of global models, RegCM3 does not trigger the moist convection just after sunrise over the southern part of the Amazon.

Are Reanalysis Data Useful for Calculating Climate Indices over South America?

Precipitation and temperature climate indices are calculated using the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and validated against observational data from some stations over Brazil and other data sources. The spatial patterns of the climate indices trends are analyzed for the period 1961-1990 over South America. In addition, the correlation and linear regression coefficients for some specific stations were also obtained in order to compare with the reanalysis data. In general, the results suggest that NCEP/NCAR reanalysis can provide useful information about minimum temperature and consecutive dry days indices at individual grid cells in Brazil. However, some regional differences in the climate indices trends are observed when different data sets are compared. For instance, the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis shows a reversal signal for all rainfall annual indices and the cold night index over Argentina. Despite these differences, maps of the trends for most of the annual climate indices obtained from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and BRANT analysis are generally in good agreement with other available data sources and previous findings in the literature for large areas of southern South America. The pattern of trends for the precipitation annual indices over the 30 years analyzed indicates a change to wetter conditions over southern and southeastern parts of Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, central and northern Argentina, and parts of Chile and a decrease over southwestern South America. All over South America, the climate indices related to the minimum temperature (warm or cold nights) have clearly shown a warming tendency; however, no consistent changes in maximum temperature extremes (warm and cold days) have been observed. Therefore, one must be careful before suggesting an), trends for warm or cold days.

Moisture transport and intraseasonal variability in the South America monsoon system

This paper examines moisture transport on intraseasonal timescales over the continent and over the South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) during the South America (SA) summer monsoon. Combined Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis (EOFc) of Global Precipitation Climatology Project pentad precipitation, specific humidity, air temperature, zonal and meridional winds at 850 hPa (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) are performed to identify the large-scale variability of the South America monsoon system and the SACZ. The first EOFc was used as a large-scale index for the South American monsoon (LISAM), whereas the second EOFc characterized the SACZ. LISAM (SACZ) index showed spectral variance on 30-90 (15-20) days and were both band filtered (10-100 days). Intraseasonal wet anomalies were defined when LISAM and SACZ anomalies were above the 75th percentile of their respective distribution. LISAM and SACZ wet events were examined independently of each other and when they occur simultaneously. LISAM wet events were observed with the amplification of wave activity in the Northern Hemisphere and the enhancement of northwesterly cross-equatorial moisture transport over tropical continental SA. Enhanced SACZ was observed with moisture transport from the extratropics of the Southern Hemisphere. Simultaneous LISAM and SACZ wet events are associated with cross-equatorial moisture transport along with moisture transport from Subtropical Southwestern Atlantic.

Multivariate analysis of the energy cycle of the South American rainy season

The South American (SA) rainy season is studied in this paper through the application of a multivariate Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis to a SA gridded precipitation analysis and to the components of Lorenz Energy Cycle (LEC) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalysis. The EOF analysis leads to the identification of patterns of the rainy season and the associated mechanisms in terms of their energetics. The first combined EOF represents the northwest-southeast dipole of the precipitation between South and Central America, the South American Monsoon System (SAMS). The second combined EOF represents a synoptic pattern associated with the SACZ (South Atlantic convergence zone) and the third EOF is in spatial quadrature to the second EOF. The phase relationship of the EOFs, as computed from the principal components (PCs), suggests a nonlinear transition from the SACZ to the fully developed SAMS mode by November and between both components describing the SACZ by September-October (the rainy season onset). According to the LEC, the first mode is dominated by the eddy generation term at its maximum, the second by both baroclinic and eddy generation terms and the third by barotropic instability previous to the connection to the second mode by September-October. The predominance of the different LEC components at each phase of the SAMS can be used as an indicator of the onset of the rainy season in terms of physical processes, while the existence of the outstanding spectral peaks in the time dependence of the EOFs at the intraseasonal time scale could be used for monitoring purposes. Copyright (C) 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

On the development of summer thunderstorms in the city of Sao Paulo: Mean meteorological characteristics and pollution effect

This study investigates how the summer thunderstorms developed over the city of Sao Paulo and if the pollution might affect its development or characteristics during the austral summer (December-January-February-March, DJFM months). A total of 605 days from December 1999 to March 2004 was separated as 241 thunderstorms days (TDs) and 364 non-thunderstorm days (NTDs). The analyses are performed by using hourly measurements of air temperature (T), web-bulb temperature (Tw), surface atmospheric pressure (P), wind velocity and direction, rainfall and thunder and lightning observations collected at the Meteorological Station of the University of Sao Paulo in conjunction with aerosol measurements obtained by AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network), and the NCEP-DOE (National Centers for Environmental Prediction Department of Energy) reanalysis and radiosondes. The wind diurnal cycle shows that for TDs the morning flow is from the northwest rotating to the southeast after 16: 00 local time (LT) and it remains from the east until the night. For the NTDs, the wind is well characterized by the sea-breeze circulation that in the morning has the wind blowing from the northeast and in the afternoon from the southeast. The TDs show that the air temperature diurnal cycle presents higher amplitude and the maximum temperature of the day is 3.2 degrees C higher than in NTDs. Another important factor found is the difference between moisture that is higher during TDs. In terms of precipitation, the TDs represent 40% of total of days analyzed and those days are responsible for more than 60% of the total rain accumulation during the summer, for instance 50% of the TDs had more than 15.5mm day(-1) while the NTDs had 4 mm day(-1). Moreover, the rainfall distribution shows that TDs have higher rainfall rate intensities and an afternoon precipitation maximum; while in the NTDs there isn`t a defined precipitation diurnal cycle. The wind and temperature fields from NCEP reanalysis concur with the local weather station and radiosonde observations. The NCEP composites show that TDs are controlled by synoptic circulation characterized by a pre-frontal situation, with a baroclinic zone situated at southern part of Sao Paulo. In terms of pollution, this study employed the AERONET data to obtain the main aerosol characteristics in the atmospheric column for both TDs and NTDs. The particle size distribution and particle volume size distribution have similar concentrations for both TDs and NTDs and present a similar fine and coarse mode mean radius. In respect to the atmospheric loading, the aerosol optical depth (AOD) at different frequencies presented closed mean values for both TDs and NTDs that were statistically significant at 95% level. The spectral dependency of those values in conjunction with the Angstrom parameter reveal the higher concentration of the fine mode particles that are more likely to be hygroscopic and from urban areas. In summary, no significant aerosol effect could be found on the development of summer thunderstorms, suggesting the strong synoptic control by the baroclinic forcing for deep convective development. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier B. V.

Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components in Brazilian women with polycystic ovary syndrome

SOARES, Elvira Maria Mafaldo et al. Prevalence of the metabolic syndrome and its components in Brazilian women with polycystic ovary syndrome. Fertility and Sterility, v.89, n.3, p.649-655, mar. 2008

Síndrome metabólica e risco cardiovascular na pós- menopausa: avaliação por diferentes critérios diagnósticos e influência de fatores sócio-econômicos

The metabolic syndrome (MetS) involves a group of risk factors and is associated with a significantly higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes. Recent studies have shown the importance of preventing CVD through early diagnosis and treatment of patients with MetS. The objective of our study was to determine the prevalence of MetS by different diagnostic criteria in postmenopausal women and analyze the influence of socioeconomic factors on cardiovascular risk in this sample of the population. A cross-sectional study involving 127 postmenopausal women (45 to 64 years) from Natal and Mossoró, Brazil. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. The experimental protocol consisted of applying structured interview, clinical examination and implementation of dosages blood. The diagnosis of MetS was based on NCEP-ATP III (National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III) and IDF (International Diabetes Federation) criteria. The research was accomplished with the participation of an interdisciplinary team in their several phases. The result of the sample studied had mean age of 53.9 ± 4.6 years and per capita income of 54.5 dollars. The prevalence of MetS, according to NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria, was 52.8% and 61.4$, respectively. The agreement rate between NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria was 81.9%, with a kappa value of 0.63 (CI 95%, 0.49-0.76), indicating good agreement between the two definitions. The most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor was HDL < 50 mg/dl, observed in 96.1% of the women analyzed, followed by increased waist circumference (≥ 80 cm) in 78.0%, elevated blood pressure in 51.2%, triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dl in 40.9% and glycemia ≥ 100 mg/dl in 37.0% of the women. The occurrence of MetS was significantly associated with schooling and body mass index (BMI). High blood pressure was significantly associated with low family income, low schooling and weight gain. There was no significant association between the intensity of climacteric symptomatology and the occurrence of MetS. The conclusions of the research were that MetS and its individual components show a high prevalence in postmenopausal Brazilian women, and significant associations with weight gain and low socioeconomic indicators. The data point to the need for an interdisciplinary approach at the basic health care level, directed toward the early identification of risk factors and the promotion of cardiovascular health of climacteric women.

Avaliação da prevalência de Síndrome Metabólica, Microalbuminúria e Risco Cardiovascular em mulheres com Síndrome dos Ovários Policísticos

Avaliar fatores de risco cardiovascular em mulheres brasileiras com síndrome dos ovários policísticos (SOP), através da utilização de múltiplos parâmetros, incluindo a determinação da prevalência de síndrome metabólica e seus componentes e pesquisa de microalbuminúria como marcador de um possível dano renal precoce nessas pacientes. Métodos: Foram avaliadas 102 mulheres de 20-34 anos de idade, com diagnóstico de SOP pelo Consenso de Rotterdam, tendo sido analisados parâmetros clínicos, antropométricos, bioquímicos e hormonais. Para diagnóstico de síndrome metabólica, foram adotados critérios do National Cholesterol Education Program s Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III). Para avaliação da microalbuminúria foi utilizada a relação albumina/creatinina (A/C), calculada a partir dos níveis de albumina e creatinina em amostra isolada de urina. Foram realizados testes estatísticos para avaliar associações e correlações entre variáveis, bem como comparação de médias ou medianas, adotando-se nível de significância de 5%. Resultados: A prevalência de síndrome metabólica foi de 28,4% (29 em 102 pacientes), estando associada ao aumento do índice de massa corporal (IMC). Quanto à análise da prevalência dos componentes individuais da síndrome metabólica, evidenciou-se: HDL-colesterol < 50 mg/dl em 69,6%, circunferência da cintura ≥ 88 cm em 57,9%, triglicerídeos ≥150 mg/dl em 31,7%, pressão arterial ≥130/85 mmHg em 18,6% e glicemia de jejum ≥110 mg/dl em 2,9%. Quando definida pelos limites convencionais para a relação A/C (3,5 35 mg/mmol), a microalbuminúria esteve presente em apenas três pacientes (3,3%). Entretanto, considerando diferentes limites de corte estabelecidos em recentes estudos que demonstraram aumento do risco cardiovascular associado a níveis muito baixos da relação A/C, a prevalência em mulheres com SOP foi alta, variando de 17,7 a 43,3% (para valores ≥ 0,58 e ≥ 0,37 mg/mmol, respectivamente). Mulheres com intolerância à glucose apresentaram nível significativamente mais elevado da relação A/C, quando comparadas às mulheres com normoglicemia. Os valores de microalbuminúria não apresentaram correlação significativa com IMC, níveis pressóricos, índices de sensibilidade insulínica ou perfil lipídico. Conclusões: Os dados evidenciam uma alta prevalência de síndrome metabólica e seus componentes individuais em mulheres brasileiras com SOP. Além do mais, observou-se elevado percentual de mulheres com níveis de excreção urinária de albumina em faixas significativamente associadas com aumento do risco para eventos cardiovasculares. Em conjunto, esses dados alertam para a necessidade da abordagem interdisciplinar e multidisciplinar das pacientes com SOP, visando à instituição de medidas voltadas para a prevenção primária cardiovascular

Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Metabolic syndrome and its associated risk factors in Brazilian postmenopausal women

Objective To evaluate the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its associated risk factors in Brazilian postmenopausal women.Methods In this cross-sectional study, a total of 368 postmenopausal women, aged 40-75 years, seeking health care at a public outpatient center in Southeastern Brazil, were included. According to the US National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP ATP III) guidelines, MetS was diagnosed in subjects with three or more of the following: waist circumference >= 88 cm, blood pressure >= 130/85 mHg, triglycerides >= 150 mg/dl, high density lipoprotein cholesterol <50 mg/dl and glucose >= 110 mg/dl. Data on past medical history, tobacco use, anthropometric indicators, and values of C-reactive protein (CRP) were collected. Multivariate analysis, using a logistic regression model (odds ratio, OR) was used to evaluate the influence of various simultaneous MetS risk factors.Results The prevalence of having at least three, four and five MetS diagnostic criteria were met in 39.6%, 16.8% and 3.8% of the cases, respectively. The most prevalent risk factor was abdominal obesity, affecting 62.5% of women. The risk of MetS increased with a personal history of diabetes (OR 5.95, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.82-12.54), hypertension (OR 4.52, 95% CI 2.89-7.08), cardiovascular disease (OR 2.16, 95% CI 1.18-3.94) and high CRP (>1 mg/dl) (OR 3.35, 95% CI 1.65-6.79). Plasma CRP levels increased with the number of MetS components present. Age, time since menopause and smoking had no influence, while hormone therapy reduced MetS risk (OR 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.97).Conclusion Metabolic syndrome was highly prevalent among Brazilian postmenopausal women seeking gynecologic health care. Abdominal obesity, diabetes, hypertension and high CRP were strong MetS predictors and hormone therapy appeared to play a protective role for this condition.

Dietary factors associated with metabolic syndrome in Brazilian adults

Background: Metabolic Syndrome (MS) is defined as the association of numerous factors that increase cardiovascular risk and diet is one of the main factors related to increase the MS in the population. This study aimed to evaluate the association of diet on the presence of MS in an adult population sample.Methodology: 305 adults were clinically screened to participate in a lifestyle modification program. Anthropometric assessments included waist circumference (WC), body fat and calculated BMI (kg/m(2)) and muscle-mass index (MMI kg/m(2)). Dietary intake was estimated by 24 h dietary recall. Fasting blood was used for biochemical analysis. MS was diagnosed using NCEP-ATPIII (2001) criteria with adaptation for glucose (>= 100 mg/dL). Logistic regression (Odds ratio) was performed in order to determine the odds ratio for developing MS according to dietary intake.Results: An adequate intake of fruits, OR = 0.52 (CI:0.28-0.98), and an intake of more than 8 different items in the diet (variety), OR = 0.31 (CI: 0.12-0.79) showed to be a protective factor against a diagnosis of MS. Saturated fat intake greater than 10% of total caloric value represented a risk for MS diagnosis, OR = 2.0 (1.04-3.84).Conclusion: Regarding the dietary aspect, a risk factor for MS was higher intake of saturated fat, and protective factors were high diet variety and adequate fruit intake.