Random walk versus multiple trend breaks in stock prices : evidence from 15 European markets

This letter extends research reported in Narayan and Smyth (2005) by employing multiple trend break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for 15 European stock market indices. The results provide strong support for the view that stock prices are characterized by a random walk.

Are shocks to energy consumption permanent or temporary? evidence from 182 countries

This article applies univariate and panel data unit root tests to annual panel data for 182 countries over the period 1979–2000 to examine the stationarity properties of per capita energy consumption. The univariate unit root test can only reject the unit root null for 56 countries or 31% of the sample at the 10% level or better. However, univariate unit root tests have low power with short spans of data and therefore failure to reject the unit root null should be treated with caution. When we apply the panel data unit root test we find overwhelming evidence that energy consumption is stationary. We discuss the policy implications of these findings and offer suggestions for future research.

Labour productivity trends in Australian manufacturing : some time series properties

Labour productivity plays a significant role in economic growth, labour demand and employment situation of a particular economy. In this light, the presence of a structural break in productivity, and its unit root property, has important consequences for the overall economy and in major sectors such as manufacturing. In this article, using some recently developed unit root tests, we examine: (i) the null hypothesis of a unit root in the log-level of labour productivity for 38 manufacturing subdivisions against the alternative of trend stationarity over a three-decade period; and (ii) the presence of a structural break in the series, and whether the break has had a permanent or a transitory effect on manufacturing labour productivity. Our main finding is that shocks to labour productivity have had a transitory effect, implying that policies are likely to have only short-term effects.

Testing for the random walk hypothesis in the case of visitor arrivals : evidence from Indian tourism

Testing for the random walk hypothesis, which asserts that a series is a non-stationary process or a unit root process, in the case of visitor arrivals has important implications for policy. If, for instance, visitor arrivals are characterized by a unit root, then it implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are permanent. However, if visitor arrivals are without a unit root, this implies that shocks to visitor arrivals are temporary. This study provides evidence on the random walk hypothesis for visitor arrivals to India using the recently developed Im et al. (2003) and Maddala and Wu (1999) panel unit root tests. Both tests allow one to reject the random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to visitor arrivals to India from the 10 major source markets have a temporary effect on visitor arrivals.

Is South Korea’s stock market efficient?

This letter applies the Zivot and Andrews (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10, 251-70, 1992) one break and the Lumsdaine and Papell (Review of Economic and Statistics, 79, 212-8, 1997) two break unit root tests to examine the random walk hypothesis for stock prices in South Korea. The results provide strong evidence that stock prices in South Korea are characterized by a unit root, which is consistent with the efficient market hypothesis.

Are OECD stock prices characterized by a random walk? Evidence from sequential trend break and panel data models

This paper examines whether stock prices for a sample of 22 OECD countries can be best represented as mean reversion or random walk processes. A sequential trend break test proposed by Zivot and Andrews is implemented, which has the advantage that it can take account of a structural break in the series, as well as panel data unit root tests proposed by Im et al., which exploits the extra power in the panel properties of the data. Results provide strong support for the random walk hypothesis.

Are shocks to commodity prices persistent?

This paper considers the issue of whether shocks to ten commodity prices (gold, silver, platinum, copper, aluminum, iron ore, lead, nickel, tin, and zinc) are persistent or transitory. We use two recently developed unit root tests, namely the Narayan and Popp (NP) [14] test and the Liu and Narayan (LN) [26] test. Both tests allow for two structural breaks in the data series. Using the NP test, we are able to reject the unit root null for iron ore and tin. Using the GARCH-based unit root test of LN, we are able to reject the unit root null for five commodity prices (iron ore, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin). Our findings, thus, suggest that only shocks to gold, silver, platinum, aluminum, and copper are persistent.

The productivity-wage and productivity-employment nexus : a panel data analysis of Indian manufacturing

This article investigates the long-run relationship between labour productivity and employment, and between labour productivity and real wages in the case of the Indian manufacturing sector. The panel data set consists of 17 two-digit manufacturing industries for the period 1973–1974 to 1999–2001. We find that productivity-wages and productivity-employment are panel cointegrated for all industries. We find that both employment and real wages exert a positive effect on labour productivity. We argue that flexible labour market has a significant influence on manufacturing productivity, employment and real wages in the case of Indian manufacturing.

Why is Chinese provincial output diverging?

In a recent paper Pedroni and Yao (2006) present strong evidence suggesting that Chinese provincial per-capita output is diverging, a result that goes against the Chinese government’s goal of a balanced wealth-creation across provinces. This paper provides an in-depth analysis of the reasoning behind this finding. Our main result is that the divergence does exist, even when new data and more advanced methods of analysis are used. We also find that it has both an idiosyncratic and a common component. Hence, the increased per-capita output inequalities observed at the provincial level is due to both province-specific disparities and to disparities between groups of provinces.

Lessons from a decade of IPS and LLC

This paper points to some of the facts that have emerged from 20 years of research into the analysis of unit roots in panel data, an area that has been heavily influenced by two studies, IPS (Im, Pesaran, and Shin, 2003) and LLC (Levin et al., 2002). Some of these facts are known, others are not. But they all have in common that, if ignored, the effects can be very serious. This is demonstrated using both simulations and theoretical arguments.

PANIC in the presence of uncertainty about the deterministic trend

Most macroeconomic and financial panel variables are trending. However, because of the well-known power problem in the presence of incidental trends, many researchers gamble that their unit root test regressions can be ran without such trends, thereby running the risk of obtaining spurious results. This article takes one of the most general and popular panel unit root tests, known as PANIC, and shows how it can be modified to account for the uncertainty regarding the deterministic trend.

'I've been to Bali too' (and I will be going back) : are terrorist shocks to Bali's tourist arrivals permanent or transitory?

International visitor arrivals to Bali are examined using univariate and panel Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests with one and two structural breaks to ascertain if shocks to the time path of tourist arrivals are permanent or transitory. The univariate LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks fail to reject the null hypothesis of a unit root in international visitor arrivals to Bali. However, the panel LM unit root tests with one and two structural breaks applied to a panel of Bali's 11 major source markets reject the null and support the alternative hypothesis of a joint trend-stationary series with transitory shocks. This result suggests that, the effects of the recent terrorist acts on Bali on the growth path of tourist arrivals from major markets are only transitory and that as a consequence Bali's tourism sector is sustainable in the long run.

External shocks and tourist arrivals to Cambodia

This article investigates how external shocks affect tourist arrivals to Cambodia. The study relies on the random walk approach to test whether the shocks to tourist arrivals are temporary or persistent in nature. To facilitate the empirical investigation, the study applies and compares the results from different unit root tests and variance-ratio tests to the monthly tourists' arrival data from 1994 to December 2012. Both tests provide evidence of random walk hypothesis, implying that shocks to tourists' arrival to Cambodia have a persistent effect requiring short- to medium-term policies to combat the vulnerability due to those shocks. Public-private coordinated policies could reduce the impact, as we found that once the crisis (external shocks) is minimized, the magnitude of the shocks decays slowly.

Response of inflation to shocks: new evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries

In this paper, we investigate whether or not the inflation rate of 17 Sub-Saharan African countries can be modelled as a stationary process. We achieve this goal through using univariate and panel stationarity tests for data over the period 1966 to 2002. We use the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt and Shin (KPSS, 1992) univariate test and allow for multiple structural breaks. We find that except for Burkina Faso, Burundi and Gambia, the inflation rate is stationary for the rest of the 14 countries. We then apply the panel version of the KPSS test, developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005), which accounts for multiple structural breaks. We find strong evidence of panel stationarity of the inflation rate. However, for a panel consisting of Burkina Faso, Burundi and Gambia, we could not find evidence that the inflation rate is stationary. © 2013 Elsevier B.V.