929 resultados para Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS)


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INTRODUCTION: The significant risk of sudden arrhythmic death in patients with congestive heart failure and electromechanical ventricular dyssynchrony has led to increased use of combined cardiac resynchronization therapy defibrillator (CRT-D) devices. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the echocardiographic variables in patients undergoing CRT-D that predict the occurrence of appropriate therapies (AT) for ventricular tachyarrhythmia. METHODS: We analyzed 38 consecutive patients (mean age 60 +/- 12 years, 63% male) with echocardiographic evaluation before and 6 months after CRT-D implantation. Patients with AT were identified in a mean follow-up of 471 +/- 323 days. A standard echocardiographic study was performed including tissue Doppler imaging (TDI). Responders were defined as patients with improvement in NYHA class of < or = 1 in the first six months, and reverse remodeling as a decrease in left ventricular end-systolic volume of < or = 15% and/or an increase in left ventricular ejection fraction of > 25%. RESULTS: The responder rate was 74%, and the reverse remodeling rate was 55%. AT occurred in 21% of patients, who presented with greater left ventricular end-diastolic internal diameter (LVEDD) before implantation (86 +/- 8 vs. 76 +/- 11 mm, p = 0.03) and at 6 months (81 +/- 8 vs. 72 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.08), and increased left ventricular end-systolic internal diameter (66 +/- 14 vs. 56 +/- 14 mm, p = 0.03) and lower ejection fraction (24 +/- 6 vs. 34 +/- 14%, p = 0.08) at 6 months. In the group with AT, the responder rate was lower (38 vs. 83%, p = 0.03), without significant differences in reverse remodeling (38% for the AT group vs. 60%, p = 0.426) or in the other variables. By univariate analysis, predictors of AT were LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation. Age, gender, ischemic etiology, use of antiarrhythmic drugs, reverse remodeling and the other echocardiographic parameters did not predict AT. In multivariate logistic regression analysis, both LVEDD before implantation (OR 1.24, 95% CI 1.04-1.48, p = 0.019) and postimplantation E' (OR 0.27, 95% CI 0.09-0.76, p = 0.014) remained as independent predictors of AT. CONCLUSIONS: In patients undergoing CRT-D, episodes of ventricular tachyarrhythmia occur with high incidence, independently of echocardiographic response, with LVEDD before implantation and E' after implantation as the only independent predictors of AT in the medium-term. These results highlight the importance of combined devices with defibrillation capability.

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INTRODUCTION: Adults with repaired tetralogy of Fallot (TOF) may be at risk for progressive right ventricular (RV) dilatation and dysfunction, which is commonly associated with arrhythmic events. In frequently volume-overloaded patients with congenital heart disease, tissue Doppler imaging (TDI) is particularly useful for assessing RV function. However, it is not known whether RV TDI can predict outcome in this population. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether RV TDI parameters are associated with supraventricular arrhythmic events in adults with repaired TOF. METHODS: We studied 40 consecutive patients with repaired TOF (mean age 35 +/- 11 years, 62% male) referred for routine echocardiographic exam between 2007 and 2008. The following echocardiographic measurements were obtained: left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, LV end-systolic volume, LV end-diastolic volume, RV fractional area change, RV end-systolic area, RV end-diastolic area, left and right atrial volumes, mitral E and A velocities, RV myocardial performance index (Tei index), tricuspid annular plane systolic excursion (TAPSE), myocardial isovolumic acceleration (IVA), pulmonary regurgitation color flow area, TDI basal lateral, septal and RV lateral peak diastolic and systolic annular velocities (E' 1, A' 1, S' 1, E' s, A' s, S' s, E' rv, A' rv, S' rv), strain, strain rate and tissue tracking of the same segments. QRS duration on resting ECG, total duration of Bruce treadmill exercise stress test and presence of exercise-induced arrhythmias were also analyzed. The patients were subsequently divided into two groups: Group 1--12 patients with previous documented supraventricular arrhythmias (atrial tachycardia, fibrillation or flutter) and Group 2 (control group)--28 patients with no previous arrhythmic events. Univariate and multivariate analysis was used to assess the statistical association between the studied parameters and arrhythmic events. RESULTS: Patients with previous events were older (41 +/- 14 vs. 31 +/- 6 years, p = 0.005), had wider QRS (173 +/- 20 vs. 140 +/- 32 ms, p = 0.01) and lower maximum heart rate on treadmill stress testing (69 +/- 35 vs. 92 +/- 9%, p = 0.03). All patients were in NYHA class I or II. Clinical characteristics including age at corrective surgery, previous palliative surgery and residual defects did not differ significantly between the two groups. Left and right cardiac chamber dimensions and ventricular and valvular function as evaluated by conventional Doppler parameters were also not significantly different. Right ventricular strain and strain rate were similar between the groups. However, right ventricular myocardial TDI systolic (Sa: 5.4+2 vs. 8.5 +/- 3, p = 0.004) and diastolic indices and velocities (Ea, Aa, septal E/Ea, and RV free wall tissue tracking) were significantly reduced in patients with arrhythmias compared to the control group. Multivariate linear regression analysis identified RV early diastolic velocity as the sole variable independently associated with arrhythmic history (RV Ea: 4.5 +/- 1 vs. 6.7 +/- 2 cm/s, p = 0.01). A cut-off for RV Ea of < 6.1 cm/s identified patients in the arrhythmic group with 86% sensitivity and 59% specificity (AUC = 0.8). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that TDI may detect RV dysfunction in patients with apparently normal function as assessed by conventional echocardiographic parameters. Reduction in RV early diastolic velocity appears to be an early abnormality and is associated with occurrence of arrhythmic events. TDI may be useful in risk stratification of patients with repaired tetralogy of Fallot.

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INTRODUCTION: Primary angioplasty is accepted as the preferred treatment for acute myocardial infarction in the first 12 hours. However, outcomes depend to a large extent on the volume of activity and experience of the center. Continuous monitoring of methods and results obtained is therefore crucial to quality control. OBJECTIVE: To describe the demographic, clinical and angiographic characteristics as well as in-hospital outcomes of patients undergoing primary PCI in a high-volume Portuguese center. We also aimed to identify variables associated with in-hospital mortality in this population. METHODS: This was a retrospective registry of consecutive primary PCIs performed at Santa Marta Hospital between January 2001 and August 2007. Demographic, clinical, and angiographic characteristics and in-hospital outcomes were analyzed. Independent predictors of in-hospital mortality were identified by multivariate logistic regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 1157 patients were identified, mean age 61+/-12 years, 76% male. Mean pain-to-balloon time was 7.6 hours and primary angiographic success was 88%. Overall in-hospital mortality was 6.9%, or 5.5% if patients presenting in cardiogenic shock were excluded from the analysis. Previous history of heart failure, cardiogenic shock on admission, invasive ventilatory support, major hemorrhage, and age over 75 years were found to be associated with increased risk of in-hospital death. Conclusions: In this center primary PCI is effective and safe. Angiographic success rates and in-hospital mortality and morbidity are similar to other international registries. Patients at increased risk for adverse outcome can be identified by simple clinical characteristics such as advanced age, cardiogenic shock on admission, mechanical ventilation and major hemorrhage during hospitalization.

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Interferon-beta (IFN-beta) therapy for multiple sclerosis (MS) is associated with a potential for induction of neutralizing antibodies (NAbs). Because immune reactivity depends on changes in lipoprotein metabolism, we investigated whether plasma lipoprotein profiles could be associated with the development of NAbs. Thirty-one female MS patients treated with subcutaneously administered IFN-beta were included. Demographic and clinical characteristics were compared between NAbs response groups using t tests for continuous and logistic regression analysis and Fisher's exact tests for categorical data, respectively. Multivariate logistic regression was used to evaluate the effect of potential confounders. Patients who developed NAbs had lower apoE levels before treatment, 67 (47-74) mg/L median (interquartile range), and at the moment of NAb analysis, 53 (50-84) mg/L, in comparison to those who remained NAb-negative, 83 (68-107) mg/L, P = 0.03, and 76 (66-87) mg/L, P = 0.04, respectively. When adjusting for age and smoking for a one-standard deviation decrease in apoE levels, a 5.6-fold increase in the odds of becoming NAb-positive was detected: odds ratios (OR) 0.18 (95% CI 0.04-0.77), P = 0.04. When adjusting for apoE, smoking habit became associated with NAb induction: OR 5.6 (95% CI 1.3-87), P = 0.03. These results suggest that apoE-containing lipoprotein metabolism and, possibly, tobacco smoking may be associated with risk of NAb production in female MS patients treated with IFN-beta.

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Burn mortality statistics may be misleading unless they account properly for the many factors that can influence outcome. Such estimates are useful for patients and others making medical and financial decisions concerning their care. This study aimed to define the clinical, microbiological and laboratorial predictors of mortality with a view to focus on better burn care. Data were collected using independent variables, which were analyzed sequentially and cumulatively, employing univariate statistics and a pooled, cross-sectional, multivariate logistic regression to establish which variables better predict the probability of mortality. Survivors and non-survivors among burn patients were compared to define the predictive factors of mortality. Mortality rate was 5.0%. Higher age, larger burn area, presence of fungi in the wound, shorter length of stay and the presence of multi-resistant bacteria in the wound significantly predicted increased mortality. The authors conclude that those patients who are most apt to die are those with age > 50 years, with limited skin donor sites and those with multi-resistant bacteria and fungi in the wound.

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The authors analyzed 704 transthoracic echocardiographic (TTE) examinations, performed routinely to all admitted patients to a general 16-bed Intensive Care Unit (ICU) during an 18-month period. Data acquisition and prevalence of abnormalities of cardiac structures and function were assessed, as well as the new, previously unknown severe diagnoses. A TTE was performed within the first 24 h of admission on 704 consecutive patients, with a mean age of 61.5+/-17.5 years, ICU stay of 10.6+/-17.1 days, APACHE II 22.6+/-8.9, and SAPS II 52.7+/-20.4. In four patients, TTE could not be performed. Left ventricular (LV) dimensions were quantified in 689 (97.8%) patients, and LV function in 670 (95.2%) patients. Cardiac output (CO) was determined in 610 (86.7%), and mitral E/A in 399 (85.9% of patients in sinus rhythm). Echocardiographic abnormalities were detected in 234 (33%) patients, the most common being left atrial (LA) enlargement (n=163), and LV dysfunction (n=132). Patients with these alterations were older (66+/-16.5 vs 58.1+/-17.4, p<0.001), presented a higher APACHE II score (24.4+/-8.7 vs 21.1+/-8.9, p<0.001), and had a higher mortality rate (40.1% vs 25.4%, p<0.001). Severe, previously unknown echocardiographic diagnoses were detected in 53 (7.5%) patients; the most frequent condition was severe LV dysfunction. Through a multivariate logistic regression analysis, it was determined that mortality was affected by tricuspid regurgitation (p=0.016, CI 1.007-1.016) and ICU stay (p<0.001, CI 1-1.019). We conclude that TTE can detect most cardiac structures in a general ICU. One-third of the patients studied presented cardiac structural or functional alterations and 7.5% severe previously unknown diagnoses.

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INTRODUCTION: Metabolic syndrome (MS) is an independent predictor of acute cardiovascular events. However, few studies have addressed the relationship between MS and stable angiographic coronary artery disease (CAD), which has a different pathophysiological mechanism. We aimed to study the independent predictors for significant CAD, and to analyze the impact of MS (by the AHA/NHLBI definition) on CAD. METHODS: We prospectively included 300 patients, mean age 64±9 years, 59% male, admitted for elective coronary angiography (suspected ischemic heart disease), excluding patients with known cardiac disease. All patients underwent assessment of demographic, anthropometric, and laboratory data and risk factors, and subsequently underwent coronary angiography. RESULTS: In the study population, 23.0% were diabetic, 40.5% had MS (and no diabetes) and 36.7% had neither diagnosis. Significant CAD was present in 51.3% of patients. CAD patients were older and more frequently male and diabetic, with increased triglycerides and glucose and lower HDL cholesterol. Abdominal obesity was also less prevalent. MS was not associated with the presence of CAD (OR 0.94, 95% CI 0.59-1.48, p=0.778). Of the MS components, the most important predictors of CAD were increased glucose and triglycerides. Abdominal obesity was associated with a lower risk of CAD. In a multivariate logistic regression model for CAD, independent predictors of CAD were age, male gender, glucose and triglycerides. Body mass index had a protective effect. CONCLUSIONS: Although MS is associated with cardiovascular events, the same was not found for stable angiographically proven CAD. Age, gender, diabetes and triglycerides are the most influential factors for CAD, with abdominal obesity as a protective factor.

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Our purposes are to determine the impact of histological factors observed in zero-time biopsies on early post transplant kidney allograft function. We specifically want to compare the semi-quantitative Banff Classification of zero time biopsies with quantification of % cortical area fibrosis. Sixty three zero-time deceased donor allograft biopsies were retrospectively semiquantitatively scored using Banff classification. By adding the individual chronic parameters a Banff Chronic Sum (BCS) Score was generated. Percentage of cortical area Picro Sirius Red (%PSR) staining was assessed and calculated with a computer program. A negative linear regression between %PSR/ GFR at 3 year post-transplantation was established (Y=62.08 +-4.6412X; p=0.022). A significant negative correlation between arteriolar hyalinosis (rho=-0.375; p=0.005), chronic interstitial (rho=0.296; p=0.02) , chronic tubular ( rho=0.276; p=0.04) , chronic vascular (rho= -0.360;P=0.007), BCS (rho=-0.413; p=0.002) and GFR at 3 years were found. However, no correlation was found between % PSR, Ci, Ct or BCS. In multivariate linear regression the negative predictive factors of 3 years GFR were: BCS in histological model; donor kidney age, recipient age and black race in clinical model. The BCS seems a good and easy to perform tool, available to every pathologist, with significant predictive short-term value. The %PSR predicts short term kidney function in univariate study and involves extra-routine and expensive-time work. We think that %PSR must be regarded as a research instrument.

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The identification of predictors for the progression of chronic Chagas cardiomyopathy (CCC) is essential to ensure adequate patient management. This study looked into a non-concurrent cohort of 165 CCC patients between 1985 and 2010 for independent predictors for CCC progression. The outcomes were worsening of the CCC scores and the onset of left ventricular dysfunction assessed by means of echo-Doppler cardiography. Patients were analyzed for social, demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and workup-related variables. A descriptive analysis was conducted, followed by survival curves based on univariate (Kaplan-Meier and Cox’s univariate model) and multivariate (Cox regression model) analysis. Patients were followed from two to 20 years (mean: 8.2). Their mean age was 44.8 years (20-77). Comparing both iterations of the study, in the second there was a statistically significant increase in the PR interval and in the QRS duration, despite a reduction in heart rates (Wilcoxon < 0.01). The predictors for CCC progression in the final regression model were male gender (HR = 2.81), Holter monitoring showing pauses equal to or greater than two seconds (HR = 3.02) increased cardiothoracic ratio (HR = 7.87) and time of use of digitalis (HR = 1.41). Patients with multiple predictive factors require stricter follow-up and treatment.

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SUMMARY American visceral leishmaniasis is a vector-borne zoonosis in expansion in Brazil. Dogs are the main urban reservoir. Departing from a case of canine visceral leishmaniasis (CVL) in Jacaré, Niterói, Rio de Janeiro State, an epidemiological canine and entomological study was performed to assess the extension of the disease at the location. Sample was collected around the case and the dogs identified by serological tests (rapid double platform immunochromatographic exams, immunoenzymatic assay/ELISA, indirect immunofluorescence/IFAT). The parasitological diagnosis was performed in animals positive in at least one of these tests. The entomological study was carried out by using light traps and manual collection. The associations between canine variables and outcome (ELISA and IFAT reagents) were assessed by the chi-square test and adjusted by multivariate logistic regression for those associations with p < 0.1 in the bivariate analysis. Seventeen cases of CVL were detected among 110 evaluated dogs (prevalence of 15.5%). Presence of ectoparasites (OR 6.5; 95% CI 1.1-37.4), animals with clinical signs (OR 9.5; 95% CI 1.2-76.6), and previous cases of CVL in the same house (OR 17.9; 95% CI 2.2-147.1) were associated with the outcome. Lutzomyia longipalpiswas not detected. Our results are indicative of an ongoing transmission in the area.

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INTRODUCTION: There are several risk scores for stratification of patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), the most widely used of which are the TIMI and GRACE scores. However, these are complex and require several variables. The aim of this study was to obtain a reduced model with fewer variables and similar predictive and discriminative ability. METHODS: We studied 607 patients (age 62 years, SD=13; 76% male) who were admitted with STEMI and underwent successful primary angioplasty. Our endpoints were all-cause in-hospital and 30-day mortality. Considering all variables from the TIMI and GRACE risk scores, multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to the data to identify the variables that best predicted death. RESULTS: Compared to the TIMI score, the GRACE score had better predictive and discriminative performance for in-hospital mortality, with similar results for 30-day mortality. After data modeling, the variables with highest predictive ability were age, serum creatinine, heart failure and the occurrence of cardiac arrest. The new predictive model was compared with the GRACE risk score, after internal validation using 10-fold cross validation. A similar discriminative performance was obtained and some improvement was achieved in estimates of probabilities of death (increased for patients who died and decreased for those who did not). CONCLUSION: It is possible to simplify risk stratification scores for STEMI and primary angioplasty using only four variables (age, serum creatinine, heart failure and cardiac arrest). This simplified model maintained a good predictive and discriminative performance for short-term mortality.

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INTRODUCTION: Multidrug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa is a major threat in healthcare settings. The use of antimicrobials can influence the incidence of resistant strains by direct and indirect mechanisms. The latter can be addressed by ecological studies. METHODS: Our group attempted to analyze the relation between the use of antipseudomonal drugs and the incidence of MDR-PA among 18 units from a 400-bed teaching hospital. The study had a retrospective, ecological design, comprising data from 2004 and 2005. Data on the use of four antimicrobials (amikacin, ciprofloxacin, ceftazidime and imipenem) were tested for correlation with the incidence of MDR-PA (defined as isolates resistant to the four antimicrobials of interest) in clinical cultures. Univariate and multivariate linear regression analyses were performed. RESULTS: Significant correlations were determined between use and resistance for all antimicrobials in the univariate analysis: amikacin (standardized correlation coefficient = 0.73, p = 0.001); ciprofloxacin (0.71, p = 0.001); ceftazidime (0.61, p = 0.007) and imipenem (0.87, p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only imipenem (0.67, p = 0.01) was independently related to the incidence of multidrug-resistant strains. CONCLUSIONS: These findings share similarities with those reported in individual-based observational studies, with possible implications for infection control.

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INTRODUCTION: Neurocysticercosis is an infection of the human central nervous system caused by the metacestode larvae of Taenia solium. Neurocysticercosis is the most common parasitic disease in developing countries. Epilepsy is the most common clinical manifestation. Difficulties in confirming the diagnosis motivated the evaluation of the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay on cerebral spinal fluid (CSF). METHODS: Twenty-two patients with NCC and 44 control patients were studied. CSF was analyzed using a commercial ELISA kit developed for NCC. Sensitivity and specificity were measured and a multivariate logistic regression was performed. RESULTS: Sensitivity and specificity of ELISA were 31.8% and 100%, respectively, with accuracy of 77.3%. Only the size of the lesions proved to be important for performance of the test. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that ELISA contributes to the diagnosis of neurocysticercosis if the result is negative or if the patient has a lesion of 2 cm or more.

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INTRODUCTION: Reduction in the vertical transmission of HIV is possible when prophylactic measures are implemented. Our objective was to determine demographic characteristics of HIV-infected pregnant women and the rate of mother-to-child transmission of HIV in Manaus, Amazonas, Brazil. METHODS: A descriptive study was conducted using notification, and investigating data from the Notifiable Diseases Data System in the Brazilian State of Amazonas, between 2007 and 2009. RESULTS: During the study period, notification was received of 509 HIV-positive pregnant women. The vertical transmission was 9.9% (95% CI: 7.2-12.6%). The mean age of women was 27 years (SD: 5.7), and the majority (54.8%) had not completed elementary school (eighth grade). Diagnosis of HIV seropositivity was made prior to pregnancy in 115 (22.6%) women, during prenatal care in 302 (59.3%), during delivery in 70 (13.8%), and following delivery in 22 (4.3%). Four hundred four of these women (79.4%) had had prenatal care, with 79.4% of patients receiving antiretroviral during pregnancy and 61.9% of the newborn infants receiving prophylaxis. In the final multivariate logistic regression model, living in urban area [OR = 0.7 (95% CI: 0.35-0.89)] and having had prenatal care [OR = 0.1 (95% CI: 0.04-0.24)] remained as protective factors against vertical HIV transmission in this population. CONCLUSIONS: The relevance of adequate compliance with the measures already established as being effective in guaranteeing a reduction in HIV transmission within the maternal and infant population should be emphasized.

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INTRODUCTION: Infection with Leishmania chagasi is the most common clinical presentation for visceral leishmaniaisis in endemic areas. The municipality of Raposa is an endemic area in State of Maranhão, Brazil, and have had registration cases of visceral leishmaniasis disease. For this reason, a cross- sectional study was conducted to evaluate the risk factors for infection with L. chagasi detected by Montenegro skin test. METHODS: The sample comprised 96% of the inhabitants of the villages of Maresia, Pantoja, and Marisol located in the municipality of Raposa, corresponding to 1,359 subjects. Data were collected using a questionnaire. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were applied to evaluate the association between the variables studied and infection of L. chagasi. RESULTS: The variables associated with infection upon nonadjusted analysis were a straw roof, mud walls, floors of beaten earth, presence of sand flies inside or outside of the dwelling, and bathing outdoors. Adjusted analysis showed that the presence of sand flies inside/outside the dwelling was a risk factor, and age younger than 10 years was a protective factor against asymptomatic infection. CONCLUSIONS: The results highlight the extent to which precarious living conditions of the population strengthen the epidemiological chain of visceral leishmaniasis.