Change-Impact driven Agile Architecting.

Software architecture is a key factor to scale up Agile Software Development ASD in large softwareintensive systems. Currently, software architectures are more often approached through mechanisms that enable to incrementally design and evolve software architectures aka. agile architecting. Agile architecting should be a light-weight decision-making process, which could be achieved by providing knowledge to assist agile architects in reasoning about changes. This paper presents the novel solution of using change-impact knowledge as the main driver for agile architecting. The solution consists of a Change Impact Analysis technique and a set of models to assist agile architects in the change -decision-making- process by retrieving the change-impact architectural knowledge resulting from adding or changing features iteration after iteration. To validate our approach, we have put our solution into practice by running a project of a metering management system in electric power networks in an i-smart software factory.

Farmers behaviour on mitigation and adaptation to climate change: A case study in Kenya.

Farmers in Africa are facing climate change and challenging rural livelihoods while maintaining agricultural systems that are not resilient. By 2050 the mean estimates of production of key staple crops in Africa such as maize, sorghum, millet, groundnut, and cassava are expected to decrease by between 8 and 22 percent (Schlenker and Lobell 2010). In Kenya, although projections of rainfall do not show dramatic decreases, the distribution of impacts is clearly negative for most crops. As increases in temperature will lead to increases in evapotranspiration, a potential increase in rainfall in Kenya may not offset the expected increases in agricultural water needs (Herrero et al. 2010). In order to respond to these present and future challenges, potential mitigation and adaptation options have been developed. However, implementation is not evident. In addition to their benefits in either mitigating or reducing the vulnerability of climate change effects, many of these options do not have economic costs and even provide economic benefits (e.g. savings in the consumption of energy or natural resources). Nevertheless, it is demonstrated that even when there are no biophysical, technological or economic constraints and despite their potential benefits from either the economic or environmental climate change point of view, not all farmers are willing to adopt these measures. This reflects the key role that behavioural barriers can play in the uptake of mitigation and adaptation measures.

Saccharomyces Genome Database provides tools to survey gene expression and functional analysis data

Upon the completion of the Saccharomyces cerevisiae genomic sequence in 1996 [Goffeau,A. et al. (1997) Nature, 387, 5], several creative and ambitious projects have been initiated to explore the functions of gene products or gene expression on a genome-wide scale. To help researchers take advantage of these projects, the Saccharomyces Genome Database (SGD) has created two new tools, Function Junction and Expression Connection. Together, the tools form a central resource for querying multiple large-scale analysis projects for data about individual genes. Function Junction provides information from diverse projects that shed light on the role a gene product plays in the cell, while Expression Connection delivers information produced by the ever-increasing number of microarray projects. WWW access to SGD is available at genome-www.stanford.edu/Saccharomyces/.

Gregarious behavior in desert locusts is evoked by touching their back legs

Desert locusts in the solitarious phase were repeatedly touched on various body regions to identify the site of mechanosensory input that elicits the transition to gregarious phase behavior. The phase state of individual insects was measured after a 4-h period of localized mechanical stimulation, by using a behavioral assay based on multiple logistic regression analysis. A significant switch from solitarious to gregarious behavior occurred when the outer face of a hind femur had been stimulated, but mechanical stimulation of 10 other body regions did not result in significant behavioral change. We conclude that a primary cause of the switch in behavior that seeds the formation of locust swarms is individuals regularly touching others on the hind legs within populations that have become concentrated by the environment.

Méthode bayésienne de détection de rupture et/ou de tendance pour des données temporelles

Ce mémoire a pour but de déterminer des nouvelles méthodes de détection de rupture et/ou de tendance. Après une brève introduction théorique sur les splines, plusieurs méthodes de détection de rupture existant déjà dans la littérature seront présentées. Puis, de nouvelles méthodes de détection de rupture qui utilisent les splines et la statistique bayésienne seront présentées. De plus, afin de bien comprendre d’où provient la méthode utilisant la statistique bayésienne, une introduction sur la théorie bayésienne sera présentée. À l’aide de simulations, nous effectuerons une comparaison de la puissance de toutes ces méthodes. Toujours en utilisant des simulations, une analyse plus en profondeur de la nouvelle méthode la plus efficace sera effectuée. Ensuite, celle-ci sera appliquée sur des données réelles. Une brève conclusion fera une récapitulation de ce mémoire.

Méthode bayésienne de détection de rupture et/ou de tendance pour des données temporelles

Ce mémoire a pour but de déterminer des nouvelles méthodes de détection de rupture et/ou de tendance. Après une brève introduction théorique sur les splines, plusieurs méthodes de détection de rupture existant déjà dans la littérature seront présentées. Puis, de nouvelles méthodes de détection de rupture qui utilisent les splines et la statistique bayésienne seront présentées. De plus, afin de bien comprendre d’où provient la méthode utilisant la statistique bayésienne, une introduction sur la théorie bayésienne sera présentée. À l’aide de simulations, nous effectuerons une comparaison de la puissance de toutes ces méthodes. Toujours en utilisant des simulations, une analyse plus en profondeur de la nouvelle méthode la plus efficace sera effectuée. Ensuite, celle-ci sera appliquée sur des données réelles. Une brève conclusion fera une récapitulation de ce mémoire.

Spatial distribution and morphometric analysis of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies : Case study from the sporadic permafrost region, Tavvavuoma, Sweden

Projected air and ground temperatures are expected to be higher in Arctic and sub-Arcticlatitudes and with temperatures already close to the limit where permafrost can exist,resistance against degradation is low. With thawing permafrost, the landscape is modifiedwith depression in which thermokarst lakes emerge. In permafrost soils a considerableamount of soil organic carbon is stored, with the potential of altering climate even furtherif expansion and formation of new thermokarst lakes emerge, as decay releasesgreenhouse gases (C02 and CH4) to the atmosphere. Analyzing the spatial distribution andmorphometry over time of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies, is of importance inaccurately predict carbon budget and feedback mechanisms, as well as to assess futurelandscape layout and these features interaction. Different types of high-spatial resolutionaerial and satellite imageries from 1963, 1975, 2003, 2010 and 2015, were used in bothpre- and post-classification change detection analyses. Using object oriented segmentationin eCognition combined with manual adjustments, resulted in digitalized water bodies>28m2 from which direction of change and morphometric values were extracted. Thequantity of thermokarst lakes and other water bodies was in 1963 n=92, with succeedingyears as a trend decreased in numbers, until 2010-2015 when eleven water bodies wereadded in 2015 (n=74 to n=85). In 1963-2003, area of these water bodies decreased with50 651m2 (189 446-138 795m2) and continued to decrease in 2003-2015 ending at 129337m2. Limnicity decreased from 19.9% in 1963 to 14.6% in 2003 (-5.3%). In 2010 and2015 13.7-13.6%. The late increase in water bodies differs from an earlier hypothesis thatsporadic permafrost regions experience decrease in both area and quantity of thermokarstlakes and water bodies. During 1963-2015, land gain has been in dominance of the ratiobetween the two competing processes of expansion and drainage. In 1963-1975, 55/45%,followed by 90/10% in 1975-2003. After major drainage events, land loss increased to62/38% in 2010-2015. Drainage and infilling rates, calculated for 15 shorelines werevaried across both landscape and parts of shorelines, with in average 0.17/0.15/0.14m/yr.Except for 1963-1975 when rate of change in average was in opposite direction (-0.09m/yr.), likely due to evident expansion of a large thermokarst lake. Using a squaregrid, distribution of water bodies was determined, with an indistinct cluster located in NEand central parts. Especially for water bodies <250m2, which is the dominant area classthroughout 1963-2015 ranging from n=39-51. With a heterogeneous composition of bothsmall and large thermokarst lakes, and with both expansion and drainage altering thelandscape in Tavvavuoma, both positive and negative climate feedback mechanisms are inplay - given that sporadic permafrost still exist.

Agency as discursive practice: From nobody to somebody as an international student in Australia

As more and more students pursue an international education, there is a need to investigate how these students deal with the demands of their study programs in the new academic context. This paper introduces one such student, a Thai English teacher named Woody,2 and looks at the ways that he engaged with a Master of Education program in Australia. I analyse the transcripts of two interviews that I conducted with Woody in his first semester using Fairclough's model of Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA). The analysis is interested in the social and institutional demands that Woody identified as impacting on the course, and the strategic action that he took in response to them. I argue that by undertaking this action, Woody was “working” as an agent of his own change. The analysis highlights a proactive and strategic engagement on Woody's part, a point that has been missed in much of the literature on the international student experience in Australia.

Dimension Reduction of the Explanatory Variables in Multiple Linear Regression

2002 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62J05, 62G35.

Modelling Covariates in Multipath Change

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62N02

Ostracode relative abundances and geochemistry in surface sediments from Lake Ohrid

Understanding the ecology of bioindicators such as ostracods is essential in order to reconstruct past environmental and climate change from analysis of fossil assemblages preserved in lake sediment cores. Knowledge of the ecology of ancient Lake Ohrid's ostracod fauna is very limited and open to debate. In advance of the Ohrid ICDP-Drilling project, which has potential to generate high-resolution long-term paleoenvironmental data of global importance in paleoclimate research, we sampled Lake Ohrid and a wide range of habitat types in its surroundings to assess 1) the composition of ostracod assemblages in lakes, springs, streams, and short-lived seasonal water bodies, 2) the geographical distribution of ostracods, and 3) the ecological characteristics of individual ostracod species. In total, 40 species were collected alive, and seven species were preserved as valves and empty carapaces. Of the 40 ostracod species, twelve were endemic to Lake Ohrid. The most common genus in the lake was Candona, represented by 13 living species, followed by Paralimnocythere, represented by five living species. The most frequent species was Cypria obliqua. Species with distinct distributions included Heterocypris incongruens, Candonopsis kingsleii, and Cypria lacustris. The most common species in shallow, flooded areas was H. incongruens, and the most prominent species in ditches was C. kingsleii. C. lacustris was widely distributed in channels, springs, lakes, and rivers. Statistical analyses were performed on a "Lake Ohrid" dataset, comprising the subset of samples from Lake Ohrid alone, and an "entire" dataset comprising all samples collected. The unweighted pair group mean average (UPGMA) clustering was mainly controlled by species-specific depth preferences. Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA) with forward selection identified water depth, water temperature, and pH as variables that best explained the ostracod distribution in Lake Ohrid. The lack of significance of conductivity and dissolved oxygen in CCA of Ohrid data highlight the uniformity across the lake of the well-mixed waters. In the entire area, CCA revealed that ostracod distribution was best explained by water depth, salinity, conductivity, pH, and dissolved oxygen. Salinity was probably selected by CCA due to the presence of Eucypris virens and Bradleystrandesia reticulata in short-lived seasonal water bodies. Water depth is an important, although indirect, influence on ostracod species distribution which is probably associated with other factors such as sediment texture and food supply. Some species appeared to be indicators for multiple environmental variables, such as lake level and water temperature.

Impact of protected forests on rural household fuel tree planting and deforestation: Chiro District, Ethiopia

This study aims at exploring the potential impact of forest protection intervention on rural households’ private fuel tree planting in Chiro district of eastern Ethiopia. The study results revealed a robust and significant positive impact of the intervention on farmers’ decisions to produce private household energy by growing fuel trees on their farm. As participation in private fuel tree planting is not random, the study confronts a methodological issue in investigating the causal effect of forest protection intervention on rural farm households’ private fuel tree planting through non-parametric propensity score matching (PSM) method. The protection intervention on average has increased fuel tree planting by 503 (580.6%) compared to open access areas and indirectly contributed to slowing down the loss of biodiversity in the area. Land cover/use is a dynamic phenomenon that changes with time and space due to anthropogenic pressure and development. Forest cover and land use changes in Chiro District, Ethiopia over a period of 40 years was studied using remotely sensed data. Multi temporal satellite data of Landsat was used to map and monitor forest cover and land use changes occurred during three point of time of 1972,1986 and 2012. A pixel base supervised image classification was used to map land use land cover classes for maps of both time set. The result of change detection analysis revealed that the area has shown a remarkable land cover/land use changes in general and forest cover change in particular. Specifically, the dense forest cover land declined from 235 ha in 1972 to 51 ha in 1986. However, government interventions in forest protection in 1989 have slowed down the drastic change of dense forest cover loss around the protected area through reclaiming 1,300 hectares of deforested land through reforestation program up to 2012.

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION IN VULNERABLE CROP AND LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION SYSTEMS IN MGETA, TANZANIA

Increased occurrence of drought and dry spells during the growing season have resulted in increased interest in protection of tropical water catchment areas. In Mgeta, a water catchment area in the Uluguru Mountains in Tanzania, water used for vegetable and fruit production is provided through canals from the Uluguru South Forest Reserve. The clearing of forest land for cultivation in the steep slopes in the area is causing severe land degradation, which is threatening the water catchment area, livelihoods, and food security of the local communities, as well as the major population centers in the lowlands. In this paper, the economic performance of a traditional cropping-livestock system with East African (EA)-goats and pigs and extensive vegetable production is compared with a more sustainable and environmentally friendly crop-dairy goat production system. A linear programming (LP) crop-livestock model, maximizing farm income considering the environmental constraints in the area was applied for studying the economic performance of dairy goats in the production system. The model was worked out for the rainy and dry seasons and the analysis was conducted for a basic scenario representing the current situation, based on the variability in the 30 years period from 1982-2012, and in a scenario of both lower crop yields and increased crop variability due to climate change. Data obtained from a sample of 60 farmers that were interviewed using a questionnaire was used to develop and parameterize the model. The study found that in the steep slopes of the area, a crop-dairy goat system with extensive use of grass and multipurpose trees (MPTs) would do better than the traditional vegetable gardening with the EA goat production system. The crop-dairy goat system was superior both in the basic and in a climate change scenario since the yield variation of the grass and MPTs system was less affected compared to vegetable crops due to more tree cover and the use of perennial grasses. However, the goat milk production in the area was constrained by inadequate feeding and lack of an appropriate breeding program. Hence, farmers should enhance goat milk production by supplementing with more concentrate feed and by implementing goat-breeding principles. Moreover, policy measures to promote such a development are briefly discussed.

ArrayMining: a modular web-application for microarray analysis combining ensemble and consensus methods with cross-study normalization

Background: Statistical analysis of DNA microarray data provides a valuable diagnostic tool for the investigation of genetic components of diseases. To take advantage of the multitude of available data sets and analysis methods, it is desirable to combine both different algorithms and data from different studies. Applying ensemble learning, consensus clustering and cross-study normalization methods for this purpose in an almost fully automated process and linking different analysis modules together under a single interface would simplify many microarray analysis tasks. Results: We present ArrayMining.net, a web-application for microarray analysis that provides easy access to a wide choice of feature selection, clustering, prediction, gene set analysis and cross-study normalization methods. In contrast to other microarray-related web-tools, multiple algorithms and data sets for an analysis task can be combined using ensemble feature selection, ensemble prediction, consensus clustering and cross-platform data integration. By interlinking different analysis tools in a modular fashion, new exploratory routes become available, e.g. ensemble sample classification using features obtained from a gene set analysis and data from multiple studies. The analysis is further simplified by automatic parameter selection mechanisms and linkage to web tools and databases for functional annotation and literature mining. Conclusion: ArrayMining.net is a free web-application for microarray analysis combining a broad choice of algorithms based on ensemble and consensus methods, using automatic parameter selection and integration with annotation databases.

Management of safety climate and the psychosocial work environment – new challenges for occupational health and safety professionals?

Introduction: The work environment and Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) practice have changed over the last number of years. A holistic OHS approach has been recommended by the authorities in this field (e.g. World Health Organisation (WHO), European Agency for Safety and Health at Work (EU-OSHA) and the International Labour Organisation (ILO)). This involves a unified action engaging elements of the physical and psychosocial workplace with greater focus on prevention and promotion of health and wellbeing. The health and safety practitioner (HSP) has been recognised as one of the main agents for implementation of OHS. Within an organisation they act as a leader of change and a professional who shapes health and safety while safeguarding the wellbeing of individuals at work. Additionally, safety climate (SC) has been developed as an essential concept for OHS of an organisation, its productivity and the wellbeing of its workforce. Scholars and practitioners have recognised the great need for further empirical evidence on the HSP’s role in a changing work environment that increasingly requires the use of preventative measures and the assessment and management of psychosocial work-related risks. This doctoral research brings together the different concepts used in OHS and Public Health including SC, Psychosocial workplace risks, Health Promotion and OHS performance. The associations between these concepts are analysed bearing in mind the WHO Healthy Workplace Framework and three of its main components (physical and psychosocial work environment and health resources). This thesis aims to establish a deeper understanding of the practice and management of OHS in Ireland and the UK, exploring the role of HSPs (employed in diverse sectors of activity) and of SC in the OHS of organisations. Methods: One systematic review and three cross-sectional research studies were performed. The systematic review focussed on the evidence compiled for the association of SC with accidents and injuries at work, clarifying this concept’s definition and its most relevant dimensions. The second article (chapter 3) explored the association of SC with accidents and injuries in a sample of workers (n=367) from a pharmaceutical industry and compared permanent with non-permanent workers. Associations of safety climate with employment status and with self-reported occupational accidents/injuries were studied through logistic regression modelling. The third and fourth papers in this thesis investigated the main tasks performed by HSPs, their perceptions of SC, health climate (HC), psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes as well as work efficacy. Validated questionnaires were applied to a sample of HSPs in Ireland and UK, members of the Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (n=1444). Chi-square analysis and logistic regression were used to assess the association between HSPs work characteristics and their involvement in the management of Psychosocial Risk Factors, Safety Culture and Health Promotion (paper 3). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to determine the association between SC, HC, psychosocial risk factors and health outcomes (general health and mental wellbeing) and self-efficacy. Results: As shown in the systematic review, scientific evidence is unable to establish the widely assumed causal link between SC and accidents and injuries. Nevertheless, the current results suggested that, particularly, the organisational dimensions of SC were associated with accidents and injuries and that SC is linked to health, wellbeing and safety performance in the organisation. According to the present research, contingent workers had lower SC perceptions but showed a lower accident/injury rate than their permanent colleagues. The associations of safety climate with accidents/injuries had opposite directions for the two types of workers as for permanent employees it showed an inverse relationship while for temporary workers, although not significant, a positive association was found. This thesis’ findings showed that HSPs are, to a very small degree, included in activities related to psychosocial risk management and assessment, to a moderate degree, involved in HP activities and, to a large degree, engaged in the management of safety culture in organisations. In the final research study, SC and HC were linked to job demands-control-support (JDCS), health, wellbeing and efficacy. JDCS were also associated with all three outcomes under study. Results also showed the contribution of psychosocial risk factors to the association of SC and HC with all the studied outcomes. These associations had rarely been recorded previously. Discussion & Conclusions: Health and safety climate showed a significant association with health, wellbeing and efficacy - a relationship which affects working conditions and the health and wellbeing of the workforce. This demonstrates the link of both SC and HC with the OHS and the general strength or viability of organisations. A division was noticed between the area of “health” and “safety” in the workplace and in the approach to the physical and psychosocial work environment. These findings highlighted the current challenge in ensuring a holistic and multidisciplinary approach for prevention of hazards and for an integrated OHS management. HSPs have shown to be a pivotal agent in the shaping and development of OHS in organisations. However, as observed in this thesis, the role of these professionals is still far from the recommended involvement in the management of psychosocial risk factors and could have a more complete engagement in other areas of OHS such as health promotion. Additionally, a strong culture of health and safety with supportive management and buy-in from all stakeholders is essential to achieve the ideal unified and prevention-focussed approach to OHS as recommended by the WHO, EU-OSHA and ILO.