Assessing urban mobility through participatory scenario building and combined utility-regret assessment

La planificación de la movilidad sostenible urbana es una tarea compleja que implica un alto grado de incertidumbre debido al horizonte de planificación a largo plazo, la amplia gama de paquetes de políticas posibles, la necesidad de una aplicación efectiva y eficiente, la gran escala geográfica, la necesidad de considerar objetivos económicos, sociales y ambientales, y la respuesta del viajero a los diferentes cursos de acción y su aceptabilidad política (Shiftan et al., 2003). Además, con las tendencias inevitables en motorización y urbanización, la demanda de terrenos y recursos de movilidad en las ciudades está aumentando dramáticamente. Como consecuencia de ello, los problemas de congestión de tráfico, deterioro ambiental, contaminación del aire, consumo de energía, desigualdades en la comunidad, etc. se hacen más y más críticos para la sociedad. Esta situación no es estable a largo plazo. Para enfrentarse a estos desafíos y conseguir un desarrollo sostenible, es necesario considerar una estrategia de planificación urbana a largo plazo, que aborde las necesarias implicaciones potencialmente importantes. Esta tesis contribuye a las herramientas de evaluación a largo plazo de la movilidad urbana estableciendo una metodología innovadora para el análisis y optimización de dos tipos de medidas de gestión de la demanda del transporte (TDM). La metodología nueva realizado se basa en la flexibilización de la toma de decisiones basadas en utilidad, integrando diversos mecanismos de decisión contrariedad‐anticipada y combinados utilidad‐contrariedad en un marco integral de planificación del transporte. La metodología propuesta incluye dos aspectos principales: 1) La construcción de escenarios con una o varias medidas TDM usando el método de encuesta que incorpora la teoría “regret”. La construcción de escenarios para este trabajo se hace para considerar específicamente la implementación de cada medida TDM en el marco temporal y marco espacial. Al final, se construyen 13 escenarios TDM en términos del más deseable, el más posible y el de menor grado de “regret” como resultado de una encuesta en dos rondas a expertos en el tema. 2) A continuación se procede al desarrollo de un marco de evaluación estratégica, basado en un Análisis Multicriterio de Toma de Decisiones (Multicriteria Decision Analysis, MCDA) y en un modelo “regret”. Este marco de evaluación se utiliza para comparar la contribución de los distintos escenarios TDM a la movilidad sostenible y para determinar el mejor escenario utilizando no sólo el valor objetivo de utilidad objetivo obtenido en el análisis orientado a utilidad MCDA, sino también el valor de “regret” que se calcula por medio del modelo “regret” MCDA. La función objetivo del MCDA se integra en un modelo de interacción de uso del suelo y transporte que se usa para optimizar y evaluar los impactos a largo plazo de los escenarios TDM previamente construidos. Un modelo de “regret”, llamado “referencedependent regret model (RDRM)” (modelo de contrariedad dependiente de referencias), se ha adaptado para analizar la contribución de cada escenario TDM desde un punto de vista subjetivo. La validación de la metodología se realiza mediante su aplicación a un caso de estudio en la provincia de Madrid. La metodología propuesta define pues un procedimiento técnico detallado para la evaluación de los impactos estratégicos de la aplicación de medidas de gestión de la demanda en el transporte, que se considera que constituye una herramienta de planificación útil, transparente y flexible, tanto para los planificadores como para los responsables de la gestión del transporte. Planning sustainable urban mobility is a complex task involving a high degree of uncertainty due to the long‐term planning horizon, the wide spectrum of potential policy packages, the need for effective and efficient implementation, the large geographical scale, the necessity to consider economic, social, and environmental goals, and the traveller’s response to the various action courses and their political acceptability (Shiftan et al., 2003). Moreover, with the inevitable trends on motorisation and urbanisation, the demand for land and mobility in cities is growing dramatically. Consequently, the problems of traffic congestion, environmental deterioration, air pollution, energy consumption, and community inequity etc., are becoming more and more critical for the society (EU, 2011). Certainly, this course is not sustainable in the long term. To address this challenge and achieve sustainable development, a long‐term perspective strategic urban plan, with its potentially important implications, should be established. This thesis contributes on assessing long‐term urban mobility by establishing an innovative methodology for optimizing and evaluating two types of transport demand management measures (TDM). The new methodology aims at relaxing the utility‐based decision‐making assumption by embedding anticipated‐regret and combined utilityregret decision mechanisms in an integrated transport planning framework. The proposed methodology includes two major aspects: 1) Construction of policy scenarios within a single measure or combined TDM policy‐packages using the survey method incorporating the regret theory. The purpose of building the TDM scenarios in this work is to address the specific implementation in terms of time frame and geographic scale for each TDM measure. Finally, 13 TDM scenarios are built in terms of the most desirable, the most expected and the least regret choice by means of the two‐round Delphi based survey. 2) Development of the combined utility‐regret analysis framework based on multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA). This assessment framework is used to compare the contribution of the TDM scenario towards sustainable mobility and to determine the best scenario considering not only the objective utility value obtained from the utilitybased MCDA, but also a regret value that is calculated via a regret‐based MCDA. The objective function of the utility‐based MCDA is integrated in a land use and transport interaction model and is used for optimizing and assessing the long term impacts of the constructed TDM scenarios. A regret based model, called referente dependent regret model (RDRM) is adapted to analyse the contribution of each TDM scenario in terms of a subjective point of view. The suggested methodology is implemented and validated in the case of Madrid. It defines a comprehensive technical procedure for assessing strategic effects of transport demand management measures, which can be useful, transparent and flexible planning tool both for planners and decision‐makers.

Evaluation of cover crops based on characteristics of nitrogen use, and aerial and root growth

La caracterización de los cultivos cubierta (cover crops) puede permitir comparar la idoneidad de diferentes especies para proporcionar servicios ecológicos como el control de la erosión, el reciclado de nutrientes o la producción de forrajes. En este trabajo se estudiaron bajo condiciones de campo diferentes técnicas para caracterizar el dosel vegetal con objeto de establecer una metodología para medir y comparar las arquitecturas de los cultivos cubierta más comunes. Se estableció un ensayo de campo en Madrid (España central) para determinar la relación entre el índice de área foliar (LAI) y la cobertura del suelo (GC) para un cultivo de gramínea, uno de leguminosa y uno de crucífera. Para ello se sembraron doce parcelas con cebada (Hordeum vulgare L.), veza (Vicia sativa L.), y colza (Brassica napus L.). En 10 fechas de muestreo se midieron el LAI (con estimaciones directas y del LAI-2000), la fracción interceptada de la radiación fotosintéticamente activa (FIPAR) y la GC. Un experimento de campo de dos años (Octubre-Abril) se estableció en la misma localización para evaluar diferentes especies (Hordeum vulgare L., Secale cereale L., x Triticosecale Whim, Sinapis alba L., Vicia sativa L.) y cultivares (20) en relación con su idoneidad para ser usadas como cultivos cubierta. La GC se monitorizó mediante análisis de imágenes digitales con 21 y 22 muestreos, y la biomasa se midió 8 y 10 veces, respectivamente para cada año. Un modelo de Gompertz caracterizó la cobertura del suelo hasta el decaimiento observado tras las heladas, mientras que la biomasa se ajustó a ecuaciones de Gompertz, logísticas y lineales-exponenciales. Al final del experimento se determinaron el C, el N y el contenido en fibra (neutrodetergente, ácidodetergente y lignina), así como el N fijado por las leguminosas. Se aplicó el análisis de decisión multicriterio (MCDA) con objeto de obtener un ranking de especies y cultivares de acuerdo con su idoneidad para actuar como cultivos cubierta en cuatro modalidades diferentes: cultivo de cobertura, cultivo captura, abono verde y forraje. Las asociaciones de cultivos leguminosas con no leguminosas pueden afectar al crecimiento radicular y a la absorción de N de ambos componentes de la mezcla. El conocimiento de cómo los sistemas radiculares específicos afectan al crecimiento individual de las especies es útil para entender las interacciones en las asociaciones, así como para planificar estrategias de cultivos cubierta. En un tercer ensayo se combinaron estudios en rhizotrones con extracción de raíces e identificación de especies por microscopía, así como con estudios de crecimiento, absorción de N y 15N en capas profundas del suelo. Las interacciones entre raíces en su crecimiento y en el aprovisionamiento de N se estudiaron para dos de los cultivares mejor valorados en el estudio previo: uno de cebada (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Hispanic) y otro de veza (Vicia sativa L. cv. Aitana). Se añadió N en dosis de 0 (N0), 50 (N1) y 150 (N2) kg N ha-1. Como resultados del primer estudio, se ajustaron correctamente modelos lineales y cuadráticos a la relación entre la GC y el LAI para todos los cultivos, pero en la gramínea alcanzaron una meseta para un LAI>4. Antes de alcanzar la cobertura total, la pendiente de la relación lineal entre ambas variables se situó en un rango entre 0.025 y 0.030. Las lecturas del LAI-2000 estuvieron correlacionadas linealmente con el LAI, aunque con tendencia a la sobreestimación. Las correcciones basadas en el efecto de aglutinación redujeron el error cuadrático medio del LAI estimado por el LAI-2000 desde 1.2 hasta 0.5 para la crucífera y la leguminosa, no siendo efectivas para la cebada. Esto determinó que para los siguientes estudios se midieran únicamente la GC y la biomasa. En el segundo experimento, las gramíneas alcanzaron la mayor cobertura del suelo (83-99%) y la mayor biomasa (1226-1928 g m-2) al final del mismo. Con la mayor relación C/N (27-39) y contenido en fibra digestible (53-60%) y la menor calidad de residuo (~68%). La mostaza presentó elevadas GC, biomasa y absorción de N en el año más templado en similitud con las gramíneas, aunque escasa calidad como forraje en ambos años. La veza presentó la menor absorción de N (2.4-0.7 g N m-2) debido a la fijación de N (9.8-1.6 g N m-2) y escasa acumulación de N. El tiempo térmico hasta alcanzar el 30% de GC constituyó un buen indicador de especies de rápida cubrición. La cuantificación de las variables permitió hallar variabilidad entre las especies y proporcionó información para posteriores decisiones sobre la selección y manejo de los cultivos cubierta. La agregación de dichas variables a través de funciones de utilidad permitió confeccionar rankings de especies y cultivares para cada uso. Las gramíneas fueron las más indicadas para los usos de cultivo de cobertura, cultivo captura y forraje, mientras que las vezas fueron las mejor como abono verde. La mostaza alcanzó altos valores como cultivo de cobertura y captura en el primer año, pero el segundo decayó debido a su pobre actuación en los inviernos fríos. Hispanic fue el mejor cultivar de cebada como cultivo de cobertura y captura, mientras que Albacete como forraje. El triticale Titania alcanzó la posición más alta como cultiva de cobertura, captura y forraje. Las vezas Aitana y BGE014897 mostraron buenas aptitudes como abono verde y cultivo captura. El MCDA permitió la comparación entre especies y cultivares proporcionando información relevante para la selección y manejo de cultivos cubierta. En el estudio en rhizotrones tanto la mezcla de especies como la cebada alcanzaron mayor intensidad de raíces (RI) y profundidad (RD) que la veza, con valores alrededor de 150 cruces m-1 y 1.4 m respectivamente, comparados con 50 cruces m-1 y 0.9 m para la veza. En las capas más profundas del suelo, la asociación de cultivos mostró valores de RI ligeramente mayores que la cebada en monocultivo. La cebada y la asociación obtuvieron mayores valores de densidad de raíces (RLD) (200-600 m m-3) que la veza (25-130) entre 0.8 y 1.2 m de profundidad. Los niveles de N no mostraron efectos claros en RI, RD ó RLD, sin embargo, el incremento de N favoreció la proliferación de raíces de veza en la asociación en capas profundas del suelo, con un ratio cebada/veza situado entre 25 a N0 y 5 a N2. La absorción de N de la cebada se incrementó en la asociación a expensas de la veza (de ~100 a 200 mg planta-1). Las raíces de cebada en la asociación absorbieron también más nitrógeno marcado de las capas profundas del suelo (0.6 mg 15N planta-1) que en el monocultivo (0.3 mg 15N planta-1). ABSTRACT Cover crop characterization may allow comparing the suitability of different species to provide ecological services such as erosion control, nutrient recycling or fodder production. Different techniques to characterize plant canopy were studied under field conditions in order to establish a methodology for measuring and comparing cover crops canopies. A field trial was established in Madrid (central Spain) to determine the relationship between leaf area index (LAI) and ground cover (GC) in a grass, a legume and a crucifer crop. Twelve plots were sown with either barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), vetch (Vicia sativa L.), or rape (Brassica napus L.). On 10 sampling dates the LAI (both direct and LAI-2000 estimations), fraction intercepted of photosynthetically active radiation (FIPAR) and GC were measured. A two-year field experiment (October-April) was established in the same location to evaluate different species (Hordeum vulgare L., Secale cereale L., x Triticosecale Whim, Sinapis alba L., Vicia sativa L.) and cultivars (20) according to their suitability to be used as cover crops. GC was monitored through digital image analysis with 21 and 22 samples, and biomass measured 8 and 10 times, respectively for each season. A Gompertz model characterized ground cover until the decay observed after frosts, while biomass was fitted to Gompertz, logistic and linear-exponential equations. At the end of the experiment C, N, and fiber (neutral detergent, acid and lignin) contents, and the N fixed by the legumes were determined. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) was applied in order to rank the species and cultivars according to their suitability to perform as cover crops in four different modalities: cover crop, catch crop, green manure and fodder. Intercropping legumes and non-legumes may affect the root growth and N uptake of both components in the mixture. The knowledge of how specific root systems affect the growth of the individual species is useful for understanding the interactions in intercrops as well as for planning cover cropping strategies. In a third trial rhizotron studies were combined with root extraction and species identification by microscopy and with studies of growth, N uptake and 15N uptake from deeper soil layers. The root interactions of root growth and N foraging were studied for two of the best ranked cultivars in the previous study: a barley (Hordeum vulgare L. cv. Hispanic) and a vetch (Vicia sativa L. cv. Aitana). N was added at 0 (N0), 50 (N1) and 150 (N2) kg N ha-1. As a result, linear and quadratic models fitted to the relationship between the GC and LAI for all of the crops, but they reached a plateau in the grass when the LAI > 4. Before reaching full cover, the slope of the linear relationship between both variables was within the range of 0.025 to 0.030. The LAI-2000 readings were linearly correlated with the LAI but they tended to overestimation. Corrections based on the clumping effect reduced the root mean square error of the estimated LAI from the LAI-2000 readings from 1.2 to less than 0.50 for the crucifer and the legume, but were not effective for barley. This determined that in the following studies only the GC and biomass were measured. In the second experiment, the grasses reached the highest ground cover (83- 99%) and biomass (1226-1928 g/m2) at the end of the experiment. The grasses had the highest C/N ratio (27-39) and dietary fiber (53-60%) and the lowest residue quality (~68%). The mustard presented high GC, biomass and N uptake in the warmer year with similarity to grasses, but low fodder capability in both years. The vetch presented the lowest N uptake (2.4-0.7 g N/m2) due to N fixation (9.8-1.6 g N/m2) and low biomass accumulation. The thermal time until reaching 30% ground cover was a good indicator of early coverage species. Variable quantification allowed finding variability among the species and provided information for further decisions involving cover crops selection and management. Aggregation of these variables through utility functions allowed ranking species and cultivars for each usage. Grasses were the most suitable for the cover crop, catch crop and fodder uses, while the vetches were the best as green manures. The mustard attained high ranks as cover and catch crop the first season, but the second decayed due to low performance in cold winters. Hispanic was the most suitable barley cultivar as cover and catch crop, and Albacete as fodder. The triticale Titania attained the highest rank as cover and catch crop and fodder. Vetches Aitana and BGE014897 showed good aptitudes as green manures and catch crops. MCDA allowed comparison among species and cultivars and might provide relevant information for cover crops selection and management. In the rhizotron study the intercrop and the barley attained slightly higher root intensity (RI) and root depth (RD) than the vetch, with values around 150 crosses m-1 and 1.4 m respectively, compared to 50 crosses m-1 and 0.9 m for the vetch. At deep soil layers, intercropping showed slightly larger RI values compared to the sole cropped barley. The barley and the intercropping had larger root length density (RLD) values (200-600 m m-3) than the vetch (25-130) at 0.8-1.2 m depth. The topsoil N supply did not show a clear effect on the RI, RD or RLD; however increasing topsoil N favored the proliferation of vetch roots in the intercropping at deep soil layers, with the barley/vetch root ratio ranging from 25 at N0 to 5 at N2. The N uptake of the barley was enhanced in the intercropping at the expense of the vetch (from ~100 mg plant-1 to 200). The intercropped barley roots took up more labeled nitrogen (0.6 mg 15N plant-1) than the sole-cropped barley roots (0.3 mg 15N plant-1) from deep layers.

Aproximaciones del conjunto eficiente en decisión multicriterio

El conjunto eficiente en la Teoría de la Decisión Multicriterio juega un papel fundamental en los procesos de solución ya que es en este conjunto donde el decisor debe hacer su elección más preferida. Sin embargo, la generación de tal conjunto puede ser difícil, especialmente en problemas continuos y/o no lineales. El primer capítulo de esta memoria, es introductorio a la Decisión Multicriterio y en él se exponen aquellos conceptos y herramientas que se van a utilizar en desarrollos posteriores. El segundo capítulo estudia los problemas de Toma de Decisiones en ambiente de certidumbre. La herramienta básica y punto de partida es la función de valor vectorial que refleja imprecisión sobre las preferencias del decisor. Se propone una caracterización del conjunto de valor eficiente y diferentes aproximaciones con sus propiedades de encaje y convergencia. Varios algoritmos interactivos de solución complementan los desarrollos teóricos. El tercer capítulo está dedicado al caso de ambiente de incertidumbre. Tiene un desarrollo parcialmente paralelo al anterior y utiliza la función de utilidad vectorial como herramienta de modelización de preferencias del decisor. A partir de la consideración de las distribuciones simples se introduce la eficiencia en utilidad, su caracterización y aproximaciones, que posteriormente se extienden a los casos de distribuciones discretas y continuas. En el cuarto capítulo se estudia el problema en ambiente difuso, aunque de manera introductoria. Concluimos sugiriendo distintos problemas abiertos.---ABSTRACT---The efficient set of a Multicriteria Decicion-Making Problem plays a fundamental role in the solution process since the Decisión Maker's preferred choice should be in this set. However, the computation of that set may be difficult, specially in continuous and/or nonlinear problems. Chapter one introduces Multicriteria Decision-Making. We review basic concepts and tools for later developments. Chapter two studies Decision-Making problems under certainty. The basic tool is the vector valué function, which represents imprecisión in the DM's preferences. We propose a characterization of the valué efficient set and different approximations with nesting and convergence properties. Several interactive algorithms complement the theoretical results. We devote Chapter three to problems under uncertainty. The development is parallel to the former and uses vector utility functions to model the DM's preferences. We introduce utility efficiency for simple distributions, its characterization and some approximations, which we partially extend to discrete and continuous classes of distributions. Chapter four studies the problem under fuzziness, at an exploratory level. We conclude with several open problems.

Validación de sistemas constructivos de los cerramientos de la edificación mediante la aplicación de los métodos de decisión multicriterio : aplicación al catálogo de elementos constructivos del Código Técnico de la Edificación

Como punto de partida para el desarrollo de la Tesis, se mantiene la hipótesis de que es posible establecer métodos de evaluación global sobre el grado de utilidad de los sistemas constructivos correspondientes a los cerramientos de la edificación. Tales métodos habrían de posibilitar, de entre una serie finita de sistemas alternativos, cuáles de ellos son los objetivamente más adecuados para su selección en un entorno de decisión concreto, y habrían de permitir fundamentar la justificación objetiva de tal decisión. Paralelamente a esta hipótesis de carácter general, se planteó desde el inicio la necesidad de comprobación de una hipótesis de partida particular según la cual los sistemas constructivos basados en la utilización de componentes prefabricados, o procesos de puesta en obra con un alto grado de industrialización arrojarían valores de utilidad mayores que los sistemas tradicionales basados en la albañilería. Para la verificación de estas dos hipótesis de partida se ha procedido inicialmente a la selección de un conjunto coherente de doce sistemas de cerramientos de la edificación que pudiese servir como testigo de su diversidad potencial, para proceder a su valoración comparativa. El método de valoración propuesto ha entrado a considerar una serie de factores de diversa índole que no son reducibles a un único parámetro o magnitud que permitiese una valoración de tipo lineal sobre su idoneidad relativa, ni que permitiese establecer un grado de prelación entre los distintos sistemas constructivos alternativos de manera absoluta. Para resolver este tour de force o desafío metodológico se ha acudido a la aplicación de metodologías de valoración que nos permitiesen establecer de forma racional dicha comparativa. Nos referimos a una serie de metodologías provenientes en primera instancia de las ciencias exactas, que reciben la denominación de métodos de ayuda a la decisión multicriterio, y en concreto el denominado método ELECTRE. Inicialmente, se ha planteado la aplicación del método de análisis sobre doce sistemas constructivos seleccionados de tal forma que representasen de forma adecuada las tres categorías establecidas para caracterizar la totalidad de sistemas constructivos posibles; por peso, grado de prefabricación y grado de ventilación. Si bien la combinación de las tres categorías básicas anteriormente señaladas produce un total de 18 subcategorías conceptuales, tomamos finalmente doce subcategorías dado que consideramos que es un número operativo suficiente por extenso para el análisis propuesto y elimina tipos no relevantes. Aplicado el método propuesto, a estos doce sistemas constructivos “testigo”, se constata el mayor grado de utilidad de los sistemas prefabricados, pesados y no ventilados. Al hilo del análisis realizado en la Parte II de la Tesis sobre los doce sistemas constructivos “testigo”, se ha realizado un volcado de los sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catalogo de Elementos Constructivos del CTE (versión 2010) sobre las dieciocho subcategorías definidas en dicha Parte II para caracterizar los sistemas constructivos “testigo”. Posteriormente, se ha procedido a una parametrización de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos para cerramientos de fachadas incluidos en este Catálogo. La parametrización sistemática realizada ha permitido establecer, mediante el cálculo del valor medio que adoptan los parámetros de los sistemas pertenecientes a una misma familia de las establecidas por el Catálogo, una caracterización comparativa del grado de utilidad de dichas familias, tanto en lo relativo a cada uno de los parámetros como en una valoración global de sus valores, de carácter indicativo. Una vez realizada una parametrización completa de la totalidad de sistemas constructivos incluidos en el Catálogo, se ha realizado una simulación de aplicación de la metodología de validación desarrollada en la Parte II de la presente Tesis, con el objeto de comprobar su adecuación al caso. En conclusión, el desarrollo de una herramienta de apoyo a la decisión multicriterio aplicada al Catálogo de Elementos constructivos del CTE se ha demostrado técnicamente viable y arroja resultados significativos. Se han diseñado dos sistemas constructivos mediante la aplicación de la herramienta desarrollada, uno de fachada no ventilada y otro de fachada ventilada. Comparados estos dos sistemas constructivos mejorados con otros sistemas constructivos analizados Se comprueba el alto grado de utilidad objetiva de los dos sistemas diseñados en relación con el resto. La realización de este ejercicio de diseño de un sistema constructivo específico, que responde a los requerimientos de un decisor concreto viene a demostrar, así pues, la utilidad del algoritmo propuesto en su aplicación a los procesos de diseño de los sistemas constructivos. La tesis incorpora dos innovaciones metodológicas y tres innovaciones instrumentales. ABSTRACT The starting point for the thesis is the hypothesis that it is possible to devise suitability degree evaluation methods of building enclosure systems. Such methods should allow optimizing appraisal, given a specific domain of decision, among a finite number of alternative systems, and provide objective justification of such decision. Along with the above mentioned general assumption, a second hypothesis whereby constructive systems based on the use of prefabricated components, or high industrialization degree work processes, would throw efficiency values higher than traditional masonry systems needed to be tested. In order to validate these two hypothesis a coherent set of twelve enclosure systems that could serve as a reference sample of their potential diversity was selected and a comparative evaluation was carried out. The valuation method proposed has considered several different factors that are neither reducible to a single parameter or magnitude that would allow a linear evaluation of their relative suitability nor allow to establishing an absolute priority ranking between different alternative constructive systems. In order to resolve this tour de force or methodological challenge, valuation methodologies that enable use establishing rational assessments were used. We are referring to a number of methodologies taken from the exact sciences field, usually known as aid methods for multi-criteria decision, in particular the so-called ELECTRE method. Even though the combination of the mentioned three basic categories result in eighteen conceptual sub categories, we are finally considering just twelve since we deem it adequately extended for the our intended purpose and eliminates non relevant instances. The method of analysis was initially applied to the set of twelve selected constructive systems is a way that they could represent adequately the three previously established categories set out to characterize all possible enclosure systems, namely weight, prefabrication degree and ventilation degree. Once the proposed method is applied to the sample systems, the higher efficiency of the prefabricated, heavy and not ventilated systems was confirmed. In line with the analysis in Part II of the thesis on the twelve chosen enclosure systems, it has done an uploading data of construction systems listed in the Catalogue of constructive elements of the CTE (version 2010) according the eighteen subcategories used in this part II to characterize the construction systems taken as sample. Subsequently, a parameterization of all enclosure facade systems included in this catalog has been undertaken. The systematic parameterization has allowed to set, by means of calculating the average values of the parameters of the systems belonging to the same family of those established by the Catalog, a comparative characterization of the efficiency degree of these families, both in relation to each parameter as to an overall evaluation of its values, in a indicative way. After the parameterization of all enclosure systems included in the Catalog, a simulation of validation methodology application developed in Part II of this Thesis has been made, in order to assess its consistency to the referred case. In conclusion, the development of a multi-criteria decision aid tool, applied to the CTE Catalog of constructive elements, has proved to be technically feasible and yields significant results. Two building systems through the application of the developed tool, a non-ventilated façade and a ventilated façade have been designed. Comparing these two improved construction systems with other building systems analyzed, we were able to assess the high degree of objective efficiency of the two systems designed in relation to the rest. The exercise of designing a specific enclosure system that meets the requirements of a particular decision-maker hence shows the suitability of the proposed algorithm applied to the process of enclosure systems design. This Thesis includes two methodological innovations and three instrumental innovations.

ESTUDO COMPARATIVO DA COMPETITIVIDADE DAS EMPRESAS DE MÁQUINAS FERRAMENTAS BRASILEIRAS: ANÁLISE MULTICRITÉRIOS

O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi analisar por meio de estudo comparativo, o posicionamento competitivo de três máquinas ferramentas multitarefas. As hipóteses iniciais partiram das seguintes suposições: a) a indústria nacional de máquinas ferramentas esta sendo penalizada pela política industrial praticada pelo governo federal; e b) a importância relativa atribuída aos elementos multicriteriais das especificações das máquinas nacionais quando demonstram tendências elevadas, nem sempre alcançam as concorrentes importadas devido aos recursos tecnológicos agregados para se atingir a competitividade plena. Assim, indaga-se: até que ponto as máquinas ferramentas multitarefas selecionadas para o estudo, estão alinhadas com os critérios escolhidos e com suas importâncias relativas avaliadas por dois usuários desse equipamento. Como metodologia adotou-se estudo de caso múltiplo de duas empresas de médio porte do mesmo ramo. Utilizou-se o método multicritério de apoio à decisão por meio de Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), para a escolha da melhor alternativa entre máquinas ferramentas multitarefas similares, nacionais e importadas. Os resultados identificam que, para essas duas empresas usuárias pesquisadas, existe vantagem na aquisição da máquina importada, embora seja notório o avanço tecnológico da indústria nacional. Estas máquinas ainda carecem de algumas inovações, perdendo em competitividade, bem como em critérios importantes como versatilidade e rendimento. Com base nos trabalhos, conclui-se que, as máquinas ferramentas do tipo multitarefas nacionais das duas empresas fornecedoras analisadas não são competitivas em comparação as importadas.

ESTUDO COMPARATIVO DA COMPETITIVIDADE DAS EMPRESAS DE MÁQUINAS FERRAMENTAS BRASILEIRAS: ANÁLISE MULTICRITÉRIOS

O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi analisar por meio de estudo comparativo, o posicionamento competitivo de três máquinas ferramentas multitarefas. As hipóteses iniciais partiram das seguintes suposições: a) a indústria nacional de máquinas ferramentas esta sendo penalizada pela política industrial praticada pelo governo federal; e b) a importância relativa atribuída aos elementos multicriteriais das especificações das máquinas nacionais quando demonstram tendências elevadas, nem sempre alcançam as concorrentes importadas devido aos recursos tecnológicos agregados para se atingir a competitividade plena. Assim, indaga-se: até que ponto as máquinas ferramentas multitarefas selecionadas para o estudo, estão alinhadas com os critérios escolhidos e com suas importâncias relativas avaliadas por dois usuários desse equipamento. Como metodologia adotou-se estudo de caso múltiplo de duas empresas de médio porte do mesmo ramo. Utilizou-se o método multicritério de apoio à decisão por meio de Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), para a escolha da melhor alternativa entre máquinas ferramentas multitarefas similares, nacionais e importadas. Os resultados identificam que, para essas duas empresas usuárias pesquisadas, existe vantagem na aquisição da máquina importada, embora seja notório o avanço tecnológico da indústria nacional. Estas máquinas ainda carecem de algumas inovações, perdendo em competitividade, bem como em critérios importantes como versatilidade e rendimento. Com base nos trabalhos, conclui-se que, as máquinas ferramentas do tipo multitarefas nacionais das duas empresas fornecedoras analisadas não são competitivas em comparação as importadas.

Localização de usinas termoelétricas utilizando Sistema de Informação Geográfica e métodos de decisão multicritério

No setor de energia elétrica, a área que se dedica ao estudo da inserção de novos parques geradores de energia no sistema é denominada planejamento da expansão da geração. Nesta área, as decisões de localização e instalação de novas usinas devem ser amplamente analisadas, a fim de se obter os diversos cenários proporcionados pelas alternativas geradas. Por uma série de fatores, o sistema de geração elétrico brasileiro, com predominância hidroelétrica, tende a ser gradualmente alterada pela inserção de usinas termoelétricas (UTEs). O problema de localização de UTEs envolve um grande número de variáveis através do qual deve ser possível analisar a importância e contribuição de cada uma. O objetivo geral deste trabalho é o desenvolvimento de um modelo de localização de usinas termoelétricas, aqui denominado SIGTE (Sistema de Informação Geográfica para Geração Termoelétrica), o qual integra as funcionalidades das ferramentas SIGs (Sistemas de Informação Geográfica) e dos métodos de decisão multicritério. A partir de uma visão global da área estudada, as componentes espaciais do problema (localização dos municípios, tipos de transporte, linhas de transmissão de diferentes tensões, áreas de preservação ambiental, etc.) podem ter uma representação mais próxima da realidade e critérios ambientais podem ser incluídos na análise. Além disso, o SIGTE permite a inserção de novas variáveis de decisão sem prejuízo da abordagem. O modelo desenvolvido foi aplicado para a realidade do Estado de São Paulo, mas deixando claro a viabilidade de uso do modelo para outro sistema ou região, com a devida atualização dos bancos de dados correspondentes. Este modelo é designado para auxiliar empreendedores que venham a ter interesse em construir uma usina ou órgãos governamentais que possuem a função de avaliar e deferir ou não a licença de instalação e operação de usinas.

Value Assessment of Orphan Drugs and Treatments for Rare Diseases

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06

A prospective study of the use of alternative therapies by men with localized prostate cancer

Although the use of alternative therapies is highly prevalent amongst men with prostate cancer, research about the predictors of such use is limited. The current study aimed to describe prospectively the use of alternative therapies by men diagnosed with localized prostate cancer and identify predictors of alternative therapy use. In all, 111 men newly diagnosed with localized prostate cancer (93% response) were recruited to the study prior to treatment. Men's use of alternative therapies and psychological variables including: psychological distress, orientation to health care, decisional conflict, and health locus of control, were assessed at three time points-(1) before treatment; (2) 2 months after completion of treatment; and (3) 12 months after completion of treatment. Demographic information was also obtained. The percentage of men using alternative therapies was 25, 17 and 14% before treatment, 2 and 12 months after treatment, respectively. In general, the most commonly used therapies were dietary changes, vitamins and herbal and nutrient remedies. Alternative therapy use was not related to final treatment choices. Before treatment, men who used alternative therapies were more uncertain about prostate cancer compared to men who were not using these therapies. Men who were using alternative therapies 12 months after treatment were less psychologically distressed that men who were not using these therapies. Health locus of control and orientation to health care were not found to be related to men's use of alternative therapies. In conclusion, men's use of alternative therapies after localized prostate cancer varied across time in terms of the incidence of use, the types of therapies used, and the psychological correlates of therapy use. Informational support that targets uncertainty about prostate cancer may assist men at diagnosis who are considering alternative therapy use. The potential for alternative therapies to have a supportive function in patient care requires further investigation. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

PERFIL DE EMPREENDEDORAS FEMININAS: ESTUDO DE CASO DO NÚCLEO DAS MULHERES EMPREENDEDORAS DA ASSOCIAÇÃO COMERCIAL E INDUSTRIAL DE SANTO ANDRÉ - SP

Ao longo do tempo, diversos estudos foram realizados com a intenção de compreender as diferenças entre pessoas empreendedoras e não empreendedoras e, especialmente, o que leva tais pessoas a terem atitudes. No entanto tais estudos geralmente focam características isoladas, que podem ser compreendidas por meio de construtos, sem a capacidade efetiva de construir perfis empreendedores. Outro aspecto importante é que a maioria dos estudos sobre o empreendedorismo, por características sociais e históricas, tem como foco o empreendedor masculino. Neste último aspecto, por mais que haja muitos estudos já realizados e em curso com o objetivo de corrigir esta distorção no estudo do empreendedorismo, ao incluir e evidenciar a parte feminina do empreendedorismo, ainda há muito a fazer. Este estudo, portanto, tem vários objetivos e cursos de ação: enfocar o empreendedorismo feminino, selecionar os construtos de empreendedorismo mais importantes sob a ótica feminina e, finalmente, construir um perfil empreendedor. Isto é, construir um perfil em que os diversos construtos se relacionam entre si e se organizam hierarquicamente em termos de importância. Para tanto, este estudo contou com o apoio do Núcleo de Mulheres Empreendedoras (NME) da Associação Comercial e Industrial de Santo André, onde o estudo foi realizado, sendo este um grupo de mulheres inovadoras e pioneiras na organização do empreendedorismo feminino no Estado de São Paulo e atuantes no ABC Paulista. Para conseguir os objetivos definidos, este estudo contou com várias fases como a entrevista inicial, onde foram identificados construtos relevantes e o contraste com a literatura - pesquisa bibliométrica com o objetivo de amalgamar a visão do NME com o que já foi previamente publicado. De forma inovadora, buscou-se utilizar uma técnica da família da Análise de Decisão Multicritério, a PAPRIKA (sigla inglesa para Ranqueamento Pareado Potencial de todas as Alternativas Possíveis), como parte das entrevistas e questionários, de modo a ser possível organizar as relações hierárquicas entre os construtos, que se mostrou adequado e compatível com o propósito original. Finalmente, utilizando-se da PAPRIKA e das entrevistas, foi possível construir um perfil final relacionado hierarquicamente de quais construtos são mais importantes no sucesso empreendedor feminino, de acordo com a visão de um grupo de mulheres empreendedoras.

ESTUDO COMPARATIVO DA COMPETITIVIDADE DAS EMPRESAS DE MÁQUINAS FERRAMENTAS BRASILEIRAS: ANÁLISE MULTICRITÉRIOS

O principal objetivo desta dissertação foi analisar por meio de estudo comparativo, o posicionamento competitivo de três máquinas ferramentas multitarefas. As hipóteses iniciais partiram das seguintes suposições: a) a indústria nacional de máquinas ferramentas esta sendo penalizada pela política industrial praticada pelo governo federal; e b) a importância relativa atribuída aos elementos multicriteriais das especificações das máquinas nacionais quando demonstram tendências elevadas, nem sempre alcançam as concorrentes importadas devido aos recursos tecnológicos agregados para se atingir a competitividade plena. Assim, indaga-se: até que ponto as máquinas ferramentas multitarefas selecionadas para o estudo, estão alinhadas com os critérios escolhidos e com suas importâncias relativas avaliadas por dois usuários desse equipamento. Como metodologia adotou-se estudo de caso múltiplo de duas empresas de médio porte do mesmo ramo. Utilizou-se o método multicritério de apoio à decisão por meio de Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), para a escolha da melhor alternativa entre máquinas ferramentas multitarefas similares, nacionais e importadas. Os resultados identificam que, para essas duas empresas usuárias pesquisadas, existe vantagem na aquisição da máquina importada, embora seja notório o avanço tecnológico da indústria nacional. Estas máquinas ainda carecem de algumas inovações, perdendo em competitividade, bem como em critérios importantes como versatilidade e rendimento. Com base nos trabalhos, conclui-se que, as máquinas ferramentas do tipo multitarefas nacionais das duas empresas fornecedoras analisadas não são competitivas em comparação as importadas.

Educational and behavioural interventions for anticoagulant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation

Background Current guidelines recommend oral anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, however anticoagulation control (time in therapeutic range (TTR)) is dependent on many factors. Educational and behavioural interventions may impact on patients’ ability to maintain their International Normalised Ratio (INR) control. Objectives To evaluate the effects on TTR of educational and behavioural interventions for oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) in The Cochrane Library (2012, Issue 7 of 12), MEDLINE Ovid (1950 to week 4 July 2012), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE Ovid (1947 to Week 31 2012), PsycINFO Ovid (1806 to 2012 week 5 July) on 8 August 2012 and CINAHL Plus with Full Text EBSCO (to August 2012) on 9 August 2012. We applied no language restrictions. Selection criteria The primary outcome analysed was TTR. Secondary outcomes included decision conflict (patient's uncertainty in making health-related decisions), percentage of INRs in the therapeutic range, major bleeding, stroke and thromboembolic events, patient knowledge, patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and anxiety. Data collection and analysis The two review authors independently extracted data. Where insufficient data were present to conduct a meta-analysis, effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs) of the included studies were reported. Data were pooled for two outcomes, TTR and decision conflict. Main results Eight trials with a total of 1215 AF patients (number of AF participants included in the individual trials ranging from 14 to 434) were included within the review. Studies included education, decision aids, and self-monitoring plus education. For the primary outcome of TTR, data for the AF participants in two self-monitoring plus education trials were pooled and did not favour self-monitoring plus education or usual care in improving TTR, with a mean difference of 6.31 (95% CI -5.63 to 18.25). For the secondary outcome of decision conflict, data from two decision aid trials favoured usual care over the decision aid in terms of reducing decision conflict, with a mean difference of -0.1 (95% CI -0.2 to -0.02). Authors' conclusions This review demonstrated that there is insufficient evidence to draw definitive conclusions regarding the impact of educational or behavioural interventions on TTR in AF patients receiving OAT. Thus, more trials are needed to examine the impact of interventions on anticoagulation control in AF patients and the mechanisms by which they are successful. It is also important to explore the psychological implications for patients suffering from this long-term chronic condition.

Development and trialling of a behavioural intervention for patients with atrial fibrillation initiating oral anticoagulation:the 'treat' study

Purpose: Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common heart arrhythmia and is associated with an increased risk of stroke. Stroke risk is commonly treated with oral anticoagulation (OAC) with a narrow therapeutic range (INR 2.0 to 3.0); which is poorly controlled in practice. Barriers to adherence include poor knowledge, and inaccurate perceptions surrounding illness and medications. Trial registration: ISRCTN93952605. Systematic review: Seven trials of educational, self-monitoring and decision aid interventions were included in a systematic review. Pooled analysis suggested education OR, 95% CI 7.89 (5.54-10.24) and self monitoring OR (95% CI) 5.47(2.55-8.39) significantly improve TTR; whereas decision aids are no more effective in reducing decision conflict than usual care, OR (95% CI) -0.10 (-0.17 to -0.02). Intervention development: The intervention was theoretically-driven (utilising the common sense and beliefs about medication models) and developed with expert patient feedback. Described using behavioural change techniques, the one-off group session included an educational booklet, ‘expert-patient’ focussed DVD, and worksheet. Methods: Ninety seven warfarin-naïve AF patients were randomised to receive the intervention (n=43), or usual care (n=54). The primary endpoint was time within therapeutic range (TTR), secondary endpoints included knowledge, quality of life (AF-QoL-18), beliefs about medication (BMQ), illness perceptions (IPQ-B), and anxiety and depression (HADS). Results: Intervention group had significantly higher TTR than usual care (78.5% vs. 66.7%; p=0.01). Knowledge changed significantly across time (F (3, 47) = 6.4; p<0.01), but not between groups (F (1, 47) = 3.3; p = 0.07). At six months knowledge predicted TTR (r=0.245; p=0.04). Illness concern negatively correlated with TTR (r= - 0.199; p=0.05). General Harm scores at one month predicted TTR (F (1, 72) = 4.08; p=0.048). There were significant differences in emotional representations (F (3, 49) = 3.3 (3, 49); p= 0.03), anxiety (F (3, 46) = 25.2; p<0.01) and depression (F (3, 46) = 37.7; p<0.01) across time. Conclusion: A theory-driven educational intervention can improve TTR in AF patients and potentially reduce the risk of adverse clinical outcomes. Improving education provision for AF patients is essential to ensure efficacious treatment.

Educational and behavioural interventions for anticoagulant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation

background Current guidelines recommend oral anticoagulation therapy for patients with atrial fibrillation who are at moderate-to-high risk of stroke, however anticoagulation control (time in therapeutic range (TTR)) is dependent on many factors. Educational and behavioural interventions may impact on patients’ ability to maintain their International Normalised Ratio (INR) control. Objectives To evaluate the effects on TTR of educational and behavioural interventions for oral anticoagulation therapy (OAT) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Search methods We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and the Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) in The Cochrane Library (2012, Issue 7 of 12), MEDLINE Ovid (1950 to week 4 July 2012), EMBASE Classic + EMBASE Ovid (1947 to Week 31 2012), PsycINFO Ovid (1806 to 2012 week 5 July) on 8 August 2012 and CINAHL Plus with Full Text EBSCO (to August 2012) on 9 August 2012. We applied no language restrictions. Selection criteria The primary outcome analysed was TTR. Secondary outcomes included decision conflict (patient's uncertainty in making health-related decisions), percentage of INRs in the therapeutic range, major bleeding, stroke and thromboembolic events, patient knowledge, patient satisfaction, quality of life (QoL), and anxiety. Data collection and analysis The two review authors independently extracted data. Where insufficient data were present to conduct a meta-analysis, effect sizes and confidence intervals (CIs) of the included studies were reported. Data were pooled for two outcomes, TTR and decision conflict. Main results Eight trials with a total of 1215 AF patients (number of AF participants included in the individual trials ranging from 14 to 434) were included within the review. Studies included education, decision aids, and self-monitoring plus education. For the primary outcome of TTR, data for the AF participants in two self-monitoring plus education trials were pooled and did not favour self-monitoring plus education or usual care in improving TTR, with a mean difference of 6.31 (95% CI -5.63 to 18.25). For the secondary outcome of decision conflict, data from two decision aid trials favoured usual care over the decision aid in terms of reducing decision conflict, with a mean difference of -0.1 (95% CI -0.2 to -0.02). Authors' conclusions This review demonstrated that there is insufficient evidence to draw definitive conclusions regarding the impact of educational or behavioural interventions on TTR in AF patients receiving OAT. Thus, more trials are needed to examine the impact of interventions on anticoagulation control in AF patients and the mechanisms by which they are successful. It is also important to explore the psychological implications for patients suffering from this long-term chronic condition.

A study of learners' perceived value and satisfaction for implied effectiveness of online learning systems

Online learning systems (OLS) have become center stage for corporations and educational institutions as a competitive tool in the knowledge economy. The satisfaction construct has received extensive coverage in information systems literature as an indicator of effectiveness but has been criticized for lack of validity; yet, the value construct has been largely ignored, although it has a long history in psychology, sociology, and behavioral science. The purpose of this dissertation is to investigate the value and satisfaction constructs in the context of OLS, and their perceived by learners relationship for implied effectiveness of OLS. ^ First, a qualitative phase is employed to gather OLS values from learners' focus groups, followed by a pilot phase to refine a proposed instrument, and a main phase to validate the survey. Responses were received from 75 students in four focus groups, 141 in the pilot, and 207 the main survey. Extensive data cleaning and exploratory factor analysis were done to identify factors of learners' perceived value and satisfaction of OLS. Then, Value-Satisfaction grids and the Learners' Value Index of Satisfaction (LeVIS) were developed as benchmarking tools of OLS. Moreover, Multicriteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) techniques were employed to impute value from satisfaction scores in order to reduce survey response time. ^ The results provided four satisfaction and four value factors with high reliability (Cronbach's α). Moreover, value and satisfaction were found to have low linear and nonlinear correlations, indicating that they are two distinct uncorrelated constructs. This is consistent with the literature. Value-Satisfaction grids and the LeVIS index indicated relatively high effectiveness for technology and support characteristics, relatively low effectiveness for professor's characteristics, while course and learner characteristics indicated average effectiveness. ^ The main contributions of this study include identifying, defining, and articulating the relationship between value and satisfaction constructs as assessment of users' implied IS effectiveness, as well as assessing the accuracy of MCDA procedures to predict value scores, thus reducing by half the survey questionnaire size. ^