Seasonal differences in migration patterns of a soaring bird in relation to environmental conditions: a multi-scale approach

Many studies suggest that migratory birds are expected to travel more quickly during spring, when they are en route to the breeding grounds, in order to ensure a high-quality territory. Using data recorded by means of Global Positioning System satellite tags, we analysed at three temporal scales (hourly, daily and overall journey) seasonal differences in migratory performance of the booted eagle (Aquila pennata), a soaring raptor migrating between Europe and tropical Africa, taking into account environmental conditions such as wind, thermal uplift and day length. Unexpectedly, booted eagles showed higher travel rates (hourly speed, daily distance, overall migration speed and overall straightness) during autumn, even controlling for abiotic factors, probably thanks to higher hourly speeds, more straight routes and less non-travelling days during autumn. Tailwinds were the main environmental factor affecting daily distance. During spring, booted eagles migrated more quickly when flying over the Sahara desert. Our results raise new questions about which ecological and behavioural reasons promote such unexpected faster speeds in autumn and not during spring and how events occurring in very different regions can affect migratory performance, interacting with landscape characteristics, weather conditions and flight behaviour.

Multi-Scale Governance of Sustainable Natural Resource Use—Challenges and Opportunities for Monitoring and Institutional Development at the National and Global Level

In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

Assessing the ability of rural agrarian areas to provide cultural ecosystem services (CES): A multi scale social indicator framework (MSIF)

Assessing the ways in which rural agrarian areas provide Cultural Ecosystem Services (CES) is proving difficult to achieve. This research has developed an innovative methodological approach named as Multi Scale Indicator Framework (MSIF) for capturing the CES embedded into the rural agrarian areas. This framework reconciles a literature review with a transdisciplinary participatory workshop. Both of these sources reveal that societal preferences diverge upon judgemental criteria which in turn relate to different visual concepts that can be drawn from analyzing attributes, elements, features and characteristics of rural areas. We contend that it is now possible to list a group of possible multi scale indicators for stewardship, diversity and aesthetics. These results might also be of use for improving any existing European indicators frameworks by also including CES. This research carries major implications for policy at different levels of governance, as it makes possible to target and monitor policy instruments to the physical rural settings so that cultural dimensions are adequately considered. There is still work to be developed on regional specific values and thresholds for each criteria and its indicator set. In practical terms, by developing the conceptual design within a common framework as described in this paper, a considerable step forward toward the inclusion of the cultural dimension in European wide assessments can be made

Satellite based multi-scale methods to support governance of Brazil's low-carbon agriculture (ABC Plan).

Brazil's Low Carbon Agriculture is one the initiatives that puts the climate in the agricultural agenda towards a more sustainable and adapted agriculture under global changes. Among the several practices listed and supported by the ABC Plan, zero tillage and integrated crop-livestock-forestry systems including the recovery of degraded pasture are the most relevant ones. The objective of this paper is to present the Geo-ABC Project, a procedure to monitor the implementation of the Brazil?s Low Carbon Agriculture (ABC Plan) and aiming at the development of remote sensing methods to monitor agricultural systems listed in the ABC Plan and adopted at local scale.

Multi-scale analysis of active landslides using two-pass differential interferometry

Landslides are common features of the landscape of the north-central Apennine mountain range and cause frequent damage to human facilities and infrastructure. Most of these landslides move periodically with moderate velocities and, only after particular rainfall events, some accelerate abruptly. Synthetic aperture radar interferometry (InSAR) provides a particularly convenient method for studying deforming slopes. We use standard two-pass interferometry, taking advantage of the short revisit time of the Sentinel-1 satellites. In this paper we present the results of the InSAR analysis developed on several study areas in central and Northern Italian Apennines. The aims of the work described within the articles contained in this paper, concern: i) the potential of the standard two-pass interferometric technique for the recognition of active landslides; ii) the exploration of the potential related to the displacement time series resulting from a two-pass multiple time-scale InSAR analysis; iii) the evaluation of the possibility of making comparisons with climate forcing for cognitive and risk assessment purposes. Our analysis successfully identified more than 400 InSAR deformation signals (IDS) in the different study areas corresponding to active slope movements. The comparison between IDSs and thematic maps allowed us to identify the main characteristics of the slopes most prone to landslides. The analysis of displacement time series derived from monthly interferometric stacks or single 6-day interferograms allowed the establishment of landslide activity thresholds. This information, combined with the displacement time series, allowed the relationship between ground deformation and climate forcing to be successfully investigated. The InSAR data also gave access to the possibility of validating geographical warning systems and comparing the activity state of landslides with triggering probability thresholds.

Determination of coalescence kernels for high-shear granulation using DEM simulations

Discrete element method (DEM) modeling is used in parallel with a model for coalescence of deformable surface wet granules. This produces a method capable of predicting both collision rates and coalescence efficiencies for use in derivation of an overall coalescence kernel. These coalescence kernels can then be used in computationally efficient meso-scale models such as population balance equation (PBE) models. A soft-sphere DEM model using periodic boundary conditions and a unique boxing scheme was utilized to simulate particle flow inside a high-shear mixer. Analysis of the simulation results provided collision frequency, aggregation frequency, kinetic energy, coalescence efficiency and compaction rates for the granulation process. This information can be used to bridge the gap in multi-scale modeling of granulation processes between the micro-scale DEM/coalescence modeling approach and a meso-scale PBE modeling approach.

Supporting data for Blossey et al (2016): CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO2 quadrupling and a CMIP3-composite forcing change

This archive provides supporting data with forcings, data and plotting scripts for the paper P. N. Blossey, C. S. Bretherton, A. Cheng, S. Endo, T. Heus, A. Lock and J. J. van der Dussen, 2016. CGILS Phase 2 LES intercomparison of response of subtropical marine low cloud regimes to CO2 quadrupling and a CMIP3-composite forcing change. J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., Under revision.

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Correspondence establishment in statistical modeling of shapes with arbitrary topology

Correspondence establishment is a key step in statistical shape model building. There are several automated methods for solving this problem in 3D, but they usually can only handle objects with simple topology, like that of a sphere or a disc. We propose an extension to correspondence establishment over a population based on the optimization of the minimal description length function, allowing considering objects with arbitrary topology. Instead of using a fixed structure of kernel placement on a sphere for the systematic manipulation of point landmark positions, we rely on an adaptive, hierarchical organization of surface patches. This hierarchy can be built on surfaces of arbitrary topology and the resulting patches are used as a basis for a consistent, multi-scale modification of the surfaces' parameterization, based on point distribution models. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated on synthetic models with different topologies.

MULTISCALE EXAMINATION AND MODELING OF ELECTRON TRANSPORT IN NANOSCALE MATERIALS AND DEVICES

For half a century the integrated circuits (ICs) that make up the heart of electronic devices have been steadily improving by shrinking at an exponential rate. However, as the current crop of ICs get smaller and the insulating layers involved become thinner, electrons leak through due to quantum mechanical tunneling. This is one of several issues which will bring an end to this incredible streak of exponential improvement of this type of transistor device, after which future improvements will have to come from employing fundamentally different transistor architecture rather than fine tuning and miniaturizing the metal-oxide-semiconductor field effect transistors (MOSFETs) in use today. Several new transistor designs, some designed and built here at Michigan Tech, involve electrons tunneling their way through arrays of nanoparticles. We use a multi-scale approach to model these devices and study their behavior. For investigating the tunneling characteristics of the individual junctions, we use a first-principles approach to model conduction between sub-nanometer gold particles. To estimate the change in energy due to the movement of individual electrons, we use the finite element method to calculate electrostatic capacitances. The kinetic Monte Carlo method allows us to use our knowledge of these details to simulate the dynamics of an entire device— sometimes consisting of hundreds of individual particles—and watch as a device ‘turns on’ and starts conducting an electric current. Scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and the closely related scanning tunneling spectroscopy (STS) are a family of powerful experimental techniques that allow for the probing and imaging of surfaces and molecules at atomic resolution. However, interpretation of the results often requires comparison with theoretical and computational models. We have developed a new method for calculating STM topographs and STS spectra. This method combines an established method for approximating the geometric variation of the electronic density of states, with a modern method for calculating spin-dependent tunneling currents, offering a unique balance between accuracy and accessibility.

RNA Virus Evolution: a Cross-scale, Disease Dynamic Perspective

RNA viruses are an important cause of global morbidity and mortality. The rapid evolutionary rates of RNA virus pathogens, caused by high replication rates and error-prone polymerases, can make the pathogens difficult to control. RNA viruses can undergo immune escape within their hosts and develop resistance to the treatment and vaccines we design to fight them. Understanding the spread and evolution of RNA pathogens is essential for reducing human suffering. In this dissertation, I make use of the rapid evolutionary rate of viral pathogens to answer several questions about how RNA viruses spread and evolve. To address each of the questions, I link mathematical techniques for modeling viral population dynamics with phylogenetic and coalescent techniques for analyzing and modeling viral genetic sequences and evolution. The first project uses multi-scale mechanistic modeling to show that decreases in viral substitution rates over the course of an acute infection, combined with the timing of infectious hosts transmitting new infections to susceptible individuals, can account for discrepancies in viral substitution rates in different host populations. The second project combines coalescent models with within-host mathematical models to identify driving evolutionary forces in chronic hepatitis C virus infection. The third project compares the effects of intrinsic and extrinsic viral transmission rate variation on viral phylogenies.

Data assimilation for advanced cross-scale unstructured-grid ocean modeling.

The coastal ocean is a complex environment with extremely dynamic processes that require a high-resolution and cross-scale modeling approach in which all hydrodynamic fields and scales are considered integral parts of the overall system. In the last decade, unstructured-grid models have been used to advance in seamless modeling between scales. On the other hand, the data assimilation methodologies to improve the unstructured-grid models in the coastal seas have been developed only recently and need significant advancements. Here, we link the unstructured-grid ocean modeling to the variational data assimilation methods. In particular, we show results from the modeling system SANIFS based on SHYFEM fully-baroclinic unstructured-grid model interfaced with OceanVar, a state-of-art variational data assimilation scheme adopted for several systems based on a structured grid. OceanVar implements a 3DVar DA scheme. The combination of three linear operators models the background error covariance matrix. The vertical part is represented using multivariate EOFs for temperature, salinity, and sea level anomaly. The horizontal part is assumed to be Gaussian isotropic and is modeled using a first-order recursive filter algorithm designed for structured and regular grids. Here we introduced a novel recursive filter algorithm for unstructured grids. A local hydrostatic adjustment scheme models the rapidly evolving part of the background error covariance. We designed two data assimilation experiments using SANIFS implementation interfaced with OceanVar over the period 2017-2018, one with only temperature and salinity assimilation by Argo profiles and the second also including sea level anomaly. The results showed a successful implementation of the approach and the added value of the assimilation for the active tracer fields. While looking at the broad basin, no significant improvements are highlighted for the sea level, requiring future investigations. Furthermore, a Machine Learning methodology based on an LSTM network has been used to predict the model SST increments.

Cartografia multi-escala de alterações do coberto florestal com imagens de satélite

Dissertação apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Ciência e Sistemas de Informação Geográfica