Evolução morfológica do Rio do Peixe: estudo de uma avulsão na planície aluvial, a partir de uma análise regional integrada - Oeste Paulista (SP)

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Evolução morfológica do Rio do Peixe: estudo de uma avulsão na planície aluvial, a partir de uma análise regional integrada - Oeste Paulista (SP)

Pós-graduação em Geografia - FCT

Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulations (FORMS) for the western South Atlantic: Southeastern Brazil region

The multi-scale synoptic circulation system in the southeastern Brazil (SEBRA) region is presented using a feature-oriented approach. Prevalent synoptic circulation structures, or ""features,"" are identified from previous observational studies. These features include the southward-flowing Brazil Current (BC), the eddies off Cabo Sao Tome (CST - 22 degrees S) and off Cabo Frio (CF - 23 degrees S), and the upwelling region off CF and CST. Their synoptic water-mass (T-S) structures are characterized and parameterized to develop temperature-salinity (T-S) feature models. Following [Gangopadhyay, A., Robinson, A.R., Haley, PJ., Leslie, W.J., Lozano, C.j., Bisagni, J., Yu, Z., 2003. Feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (forms) in the gulf of maine and georges bank. Cont. Shelf Res. 23 (3-4), 317-353] methodology, a synoptic initialization scheme for feature-oriented regional modeling and simulation (FORMS) of the circulation in this region is then developed. First, the temperature and salinity feature-model profiles are placed on a regional circulation template and objectively analyzed with available background climatology in the deep region. These initialization fields are then used for dynamical simulations via the Princeton Ocean Model (POM). A few first applications of this methodology are presented in this paper. These include the BC meandering, the BC-eddy interaction and the meander-eddy-upwelling system (MEUS) simulations. Preliminary validation results include realistic wave-growth and eddy formation and sustained upwelling. Our future plan includes the application of these feature models with satellite, in-situ data and advanced data-assimilation schemes for nowcasting and forecasting the SEBRA region. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Geological and hydrogeological features affecting migration, multi-phase partitioning and degradation of chlorinated hydrocarbons through unconsolidated porous media.

Chlorinated solvents are the most ubiquitous organic contaminants found in groundwater since the last five decades. They generally reach groundwater as Dense Non-Aqueous Phase Liquid (DNAPL). This phase can migrate through aquifers, and also through aquitards, in ways that aqueous contaminants cannot. The complex phase partitioning to which chlorinated solvent DNAPLs can undergo (i.e. to the dissolved, vapor or sorbed phase), as well as their transformations (e.g. degradation), depend on the physico-chemical properties of the contaminants themselves and on features of the hydrogeological system. The main goal of the thesis is to provide new knowledge for the future investigations of sites contaminated by DNAPLs in alluvial settings, proposing innovative investigative approaches and emphasizing some of the key issues and main criticalities of this kind of contaminants in such a setting. To achieve this goal, the hydrogeologic setting below the city of Ferrara (Po plain, northern Italy), which is affected by scattered contamination by chlorinated solvents, has been investigated at different scales (regional and site specific), both from an intrinsic (i.e. groundwater flow systems) and specific (i.e. chlorinated solvent DNAPL behavior) point of view. Detailed investigations were carried out in particular in one selected test-site, known as “Caretti site”, where high-resolution vertical profiling of different kind of data were collected by means of multilevel monitoring systems and other innovative sampling and analytical techniques. This allowed to achieve a deep geological and hydrogeological knowledge of the system and to reconstruct in detail the architecture of contaminants in relationship to the features of the hosting porous medium. The results achieved in this thesis are useful not only at local scale, e.g. employable to interpret the origin of contamination in other sites of the Ferrara area, but also at global scale, in order to address future remediation and protection actions of similar hydrogeologic settings.

Projected 21st century decrease in marine productivity: a multi-model analysis

Changes in marine net primary productivity (PP) and export of particulate organic carbon (EP) are projected over the 21st century with four global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All four models show a decrease in global mean PP and EP between 2 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in PP and EP. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in PP and EP as productivity is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where three models project an increase in PP while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multi-model mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observation-based estimates compared to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer net primary production from satellite observations.

Managing water resources in dynamic settings: A multi-level, multi-stakeholder perspective

The aim of the present article is to contribute to the debate on the role of research in sustainable management of water and related resources, based on experiences in the Upper Ewaso Ng’iro and Pangani river basins in East Africa. Both basins are characterised by humid, resource-rich highlands and extensive semi-arid lowlands, by growing demand for water and related resources, and by numerous conflicting stakeholder interests. Issues of scale and level, on the one hand, and the normative dimension of sustainability, on the other hand, are identified as key challenges for research that seeks to produce relevant and applicable results for informed decision-making. A multi-level and multi-stakeholder perspective, defined on the basis of three minimal principles, is proposed here as an approach to research for informed decision-making. Key lessons learnt from applying these principles in the two river basins are presented and discussed in the light of current debate.

A multi-proxy approach for revealing recent climatic changes in the Russian Altai

For the first time we present a multi-proxy data set for the Russian Altai, consisting of Siberian larch tree-ring width (TRW), latewood density (MXD), δ13C and δ18O in cellulose chronologies obtained for the period 1779–2007 and cell wall thickness (CWT) for 1900–2008. All of these parameters agree well between each other in the high-frequency variability, while the low-frequency climate information shows systematic differences. The correlation analysis with temperature and precipitation data from the closest weather station and gridded data revealed that annual TRW, MXD, CWT, and δ13C data contain a strong summer temperature signal, while δ18O in cellulose represents a mixed summer and winter temperature and precipitation signal. The temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments were used to investigate the correspondence of different independent proxies. Low frequency patterns in TRW and δ13C chronologies are consistent with temperature reconstructions from nearby Belukha ice core and Teletskoe lake sediments showing a pronounced warming trend in the last century. Their combination could be used for the regional temperature reconstruction. The long-term δ18O trend agrees with the precipitation reconstruction from the Teletskoe lake sediment indicating more humid conditions during the twentieth century. Therefore, these two proxies could be combined for the precipitation reconstruction.

Palaeohydrology, fires and vegetation succession in the southern Baltic during the last 7500 years reconstructed from a raised bog based on multi-proxy data

We present the first 7500 yr long multi-proxy record from a raised bog located at the southern Baltic coast, Poland. Testate amoebae, plant macrofossils, pollen and microscopic charcoal were used to reconstruct environmental changes in Pomerania (northern Poland, Kaszuby Lakeland) from a 7-m thick peat archive of Stążki bog dated 5500 BC–AD 1250. We obtained a record of proxies representing different spatial scales: regional vegetation changed simultaneously with local vegetation, and testate amoebae showed a pattern of change similar to that of pollen and plant macrofossils. On the basis of the combined proxies, we distinguished three hydroclimatic stages: moist conditions 5500–3450 BC, drier conditions with regionally increased fires up to 600 BC, and again moist conditions from 600 BC onward. During the drier interval, a first climatic shift to wetter conditions at 1700 BC is indicated by regional pollen as the replacement of Corylus by Carpinus, and locally by, e.g., the increase of Hyalosphenia elegans and mire plants such as Sphagnum sec. Cuspidata. Furthermore, we observed a correlation since 600 BC among the re-expansion of Carpinus (after a sudden decline ca. 950 BC), increased peat accumulation, increase of Hyalosphenia species, and fewer fires, suggesting lower evapotranspiration and a stable high water table in the bog. Fagus started to expand after AD 810 gradually replacing Carpinus, which was possibly due to a gradually more oceanic climate, though we cannot exclude human impact on the forests. Peat accumulation, determined by radiocarbon dating, varied with bog surface wetness. The hydroclimatic phases found in Stążki peatland are similar to moisture changes recorded in other sites from Poland and Europe. This is the first detailed record of hydroclimatic change during the Holocene in the southern Baltic region, so it forms a reference site for further studies on other southern Baltic bogs that are in progress.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Stacking of discontinuous regional palaeoclimate records: Chironomid-based summer temperatures from the Alpine region

Since multi-site reconstructions are less affected by site-specific climatic effects and artefacts, regional palaeotemperature reconstructions based on a number of sites can provide more robust estimates of centennial- to millennial-scale temperature trends than individual, site-specific records. Furthermore, reconstructions based on multiple records are necessary for developing continuous climate records over time scales longer than covered by individual sequences. Here, we present a procedure for developing such reconstructions based on relatively short (centuries to millennia), discontinuously sampled records as are typically developed when using biotic proxies in lake sediments for temperature reconstruction. The approach includes an altitudinal correction of temperatures, an interpolation of individual records to equal time intervals, a stacking procedure for sections of the interval of interest that have the same records available, as well as a splicing procedure to link the individual stacked records into a continuous reconstruction. Variations in the final, stacked and spliced reconstruction are driven by variations in the individual records, whereas the absolute temperature values are determined by the stacked segment based on the largest number of records. With numerical simulations based on the NGRIP δ18O record, we demonstrate that the interpolation and stacking procedure provides an approximation of a smoothed palaeoclimate record if based on a sufficient number of discontinuously sampled records. Finally, we provide an example of a stacked and spliced palaeotemperature reconstruction 15000–90 calibrated 14C yr BP based on six chironomid records from the northern and central Swiss Alps and eastern France to discuss the potential and limitations of this approach.

Galileo Orbit and Clock Quality of the IGS Multi-GNSS Experiment

The Multi-GNSS Experiment (MGEX) of the International GNSS Service (IGS) aims at the data collection and analysis of all available satellite navigation systems. In particular the new global and regional satellite navigation systems are of interest, i.e., the European Galileo, the Chinese BeiDou, the Japanese QZSS as well as satellite based augmentation systems. This article analyzes the orbit and clock quality of the Galileo products of four MGEX analysis centers for a common time period of 20 weeks. Orbit comparisons of the individual analysis centers have a consistency at the 5–30 cm level. Day boundary discontinuities range from 4 to 28 cm whereas 2-day orbit fit RMS values vary between 1 and 7 cm. The accuracy evaluated by satellite laser ranging residuals is on the one decimeter level with a systematic bias of about −5 cm for all analysis centers. In addition, systematic errors on the decimeter level related to solar radiation pressure mismodeling are present in all orbit products. Due to the correlation of radial orbit errors with the clock parameters, these errors are also visible as a bump in the Allan deviation of the Galileo satellite clocks at the orbital frequency.

Sustainable Development Appraisal (SDA): A methodological tool for the participatory assessment of sustainability from local to regional planning levels

The term 'sustainable development' is receiving increasing attention in development co-operation and at the global level. However, practical tools which can help local users and multi-disciplinary teams to work together and apply this general concept at the local to regional levels have' emerged only very recently. This paper describes a tool called 'Sustainable Development Appraisal' (SDA), which is based on the principles of sustainable development, and can be applied by small interdisciplinary teams using a transdisciplinary approach, i.e. in participation with local land users and other stakeholders at various levels of intervention. The SDA has been applied in different parts of the globe. It is receiving considerable attention, and may fulfil most requirements contained in the concept of sustainable development, and yet be practically applicable and useful in the local to regional context. Examples from Eritrea and Ethiopia are used in this paper 'to illustrate the practicability of SDA for development planning and implementation.

Variability of daily winter wind speed distribution over Northern Europe during the past millennium in regional and global climate simulations

We analyse the variability of the probability distribution of daily wind speed in wintertime over Northern and Central Europe in a series of global and regional climate simulations covering the last centuries, and in reanalysis products covering approximately the last 60 years. The focus of the study lies on identifying the link of the variations in the wind speed distribution to the regional near-surface temperature, to the meridional temperature gradient and to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our main result is that the link between the daily wind distribution and the regional climate drivers is strongly model dependent. The global models tend to behave similarly, although they show some discrepancies. The two regional models also tend to behave similarly to each other, but surprisingly the results derived from each regional model strongly deviates from the results derived from its driving global model. In addition, considering multi-centennial timescales, we find in two global simulations a long-term tendency for the probability distribution of daily wind speed to widen through the last centuries. The cause for this widening is likely the effect of the deforestation prescribed in these simulations. We conclude that no clear systematic relationship between the mean temperature, the temperature gradient and/or the North Atlantic Oscillation, with the daily wind speed statistics can be inferred from these simulations. The understand- ing of past and future changes in the distribution of wind speeds, and thus of wind speed extremes, will require a detailed analysis of the representation of the interaction between large-scale and small-scale dynamics.

Multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene sea surface temperatures, based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst

We present and examine a multi-sensor global compilation of mid-Holocene (MH) sea surface temperatures (SST), based on Mg/Ca and alkenone palaeothermometry and reconstructions obtained using planktonic foraminifera and organic-walled dinoflagellate cyst census counts. We assess the uncertainties originating from using different methodologies and evaluate the potential of MH SST reconstructions as a benchmark for climate-model simulations. The comparison between different analytical approaches (time frame, baseline climate) shows the choice of time window for the MH has a negligible effect on the reconstructed SST pattern, but the choice of baseline climate affects both the magnitude and spatial pattern of the reconstructed SSTs. Comparison of the SST reconstructions made using different sensors shows significant discrepancies at a regional scale, with uncertainties often exceeding the reconstructed SST anomaly. Apparent patterns in SST may largely be a reflection of the use of different sensors in different regions. Overall, the uncertainties associated with the SST reconstructions are generally larger than the MH anomalies. Thus, the SST data currently available cannot serve as a target for benchmarking model simulations.